Joint Assessment of Cable Damage and Quantification of Effects from Fire (JACQUE-FIRE): Final Report (NUREG/CR-7150, Volume 2, BNL-NUREG-98204-2012, EPRI 3002001989)

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Final Report: May 2014

Prepared By:
M. Subudhi and G. Martinez-Guridi
Brookhaven National Laboratory

Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Washington DC 20555-0001

G. Taylor, NRC Technical Project Manager
M.H. Salley, NRC Project Manager

Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)
3420 Hillview Avenue
Palo Alto, CA 94304-1338

R. Wachowiak and A. Lindeman, EPRI Project Managers

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The Joint Assessment of Cable Damage and Quantification of Effects from Fire (JACQUEFIRE) is a unique program in using an expert elicitation exercise by a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) panel to build upon information developed in an electrical engineering panel's Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) exercise. These two exercises designed to work in series were sponsored by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES) and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) under the NRC-RES/EPRI's Memorandum of Understanding collaborative research agreement. NUREG/CR-7150, Volume 1 of the JACQUE-FIRE program details the findings of the PIRT exercise undertaken on the failures of electrical control circuits that may occur in nuclear power plants as a result of fire damage to cables.

Volume 2 documents the results of the PRA panel's expert elicitation that is used to develop conditional probabilities of hot short-induced spurious operation occurrence of various control circuit applications and their durations, given fire damage to electrical cables. The PRA panel chosen for this expert elicitation comprised a group of ten experts sponsored equally by the NRC and the EPRI. Staff from Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) facilitated the efforts of the PRA panel and also served as technical evaluators.

The objective of the PRA panel's expert elicitation is to estimate the conditional probabilities of the hot short-induced spurious operation failure mode of control circuits and its duration, given fire-induced cable damage. These results are intended for use in fire PRA applications. Using an enhanced Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee's (SSHAC's) Level 2 process for the expert elicitation (NUREG/CR-6372), the panel suggested parametric distributions of the probability of occurrence, and duration of fire-induced circuit-failure phenomena. Distributions are developed for control circuit configurations where applicable test data are available, as well as when there are none, but expert judgment reasonably can offer quantitative estimates.

The electrical PIRT study in Volume 1 identified the configurations of the electrical control circuits that could be vulnerable to hot short-induced spurious operations, applying the physics and physical parameters that influence the modes of fire-induced circuit failure. For these control circuits, the PRA panel derived the distributions of conditional probability on the hot short-induced spurious operation of certain end devices and also the conditional probability distributions of their spurious operation duration. Both conditional probability distributions were derived using the results from recent cable-fire tests undertaken by the EPRI, Duke Energy, and the NRC and expert judgment. These conditional probabilities advance the state-of-the-art and are intended for revising, directly replacing, or creating new probabilities in NUREG/CR-6850 (Tables 10-1 through 10-5) and in its Supplement 1 (Figure 16-1 and Table 16-1) that the nuclear power industry currently use in their fire PRAs.

Since the information in the supporting appendices of this report is voluminous, some of this material is included in an enclosed compact disk located inside the back cover of this report. The compact disk also contains the detailed information used by the PRA panel in the formulation of this report.

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