Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research Workshop – 2021

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On February 22-25, 2021, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (NRC/RES) will host the 6th Annual NRC Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research Workshop. Staff and contractors from the NRC, as well as participants from federal agencies, industry, and other domestic and international organizations involved in flood hazard assessment, flood risk assessment, and flood protection/mitigation research will provide information on recent results, current activities, and perspectives on future research directions. This four-day workshop will be entirely virtual and is open to the public at no charge. Workshop sessions are planned to run from 10am to 5pm (EST) each day. Registration Deadline is Jan 25th, 2021 for Non-US citizens and Feb 8th, 2021 US citizens.

Workshop Topics:

  • Climate
  • Precipitation
  • Site-scale, riverine, and coastal flooding
  • Modeling frameworks
  • Flooding Events and Operational Experience
  • External Flooding Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Call for Abstracts: This workshop will feature both invited and submitted presentations related to the topics listed above. Abstract submission deadline is January 15, 2021.

Conference Proceedings

The abstracts, posters, and presentation files from this year’s PFHA workshop have been added to NRC’s database system ADAMS and are now publicly available.

For Additional information contact Thomas Aird Email: Thomas.Aird@nrc.gov

Last Year's Conference Proceedings

Document Number Title Publish Date
RIL 2021–01 Proceedings of the Fifth Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Workshop 01/31/2021
RIL–2001 RIL-2001, Part 1, - Proceedings of NRC Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Research Workshops I-IV 02/03/2020
RIL-2001, Part 2, - Proceedings of NRC Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Research Workshops I-IV 02/03/2020
RIL-2001, Part 3, - Proceedings of NRC Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Research Workshops I-IV 02/03/2020
RIL-2001, Part 4, - Proceedings of NRC Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Research Workshops I-IV 02/03/2020

Agenda

6th Annual NRC PFHA Research Workshop (Feb 22-25, 2021)

* denotes speaker

Day 1 Agenda: Monday, February 22, 2021
Session 1A: Introduction
Session Chair: Tom Aird, NRC/RES
10:00 – 10:10 Welcome, Webinar Logistics
Kenneth Hamburger*, NRC/RES
1A-0
10:10 – 10:25 Opening Remarks
Ray Furstenau*, Director, NRC Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (NRC/RES)
1A-1
10:25 – 10:45 NRC PFHA Research Program Overview
Joseph Kanney*, NRC/RES
1A-2
10:45 – 11:05 U.S. Geological Survey Flooding-Related Programs and Recent Activities
Julie Kiang*, Robert Mason, U.S. Geological Survey
1A-3
11:05 – 11:25 Committee on the Safety of Nuclear Installations (CSNI) Working Group on External Events (WGEV)
John Nakoski*, NRC/RES (WGEV Chair)
1A-4
 
11:25 – 11:40 Break
 
Session 1B: Climate
Session Chair: Joseph Kanney, NRC/RES
11:40 – 12:10 KEYNOTE - Seasonally Dependent Changes in Multimodel and Large Ensemble Simulations
Lai-Yung (Ruby) Leung*, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)
1B-1
12:10 – 12:40 Challenges Associated with Multi-Hazard Characterization of Landfalling Hurricanes
Scott Weaver*, National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST); Dereka-Caroll Smith, Joint NIST-UMD-NCAR Research Associate
1B-2
12:40 – 13:10 Quantifying Shifts in Joint Rainfall-Surge Hazard due to Future Climate Warming
Avantika Gori* Ning Lin, Princeton University
1B-3
13:10 – 13:30 Climate Panel Discussion
All Speakers
1B-4
 
13:30 – 14:30 Lunch
 
Session 1C: Precipitation
Session Chair: Elena Yegorova, NRC/RES
14:30 – 15:00 KEYNOTE - On the Applicability of Kilometer-Scale Heavy Precipitation in Flood Risk Assessments
Andreas Prein*, Jordan Powers, Erin Towler, and David Ahijevych, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
1C-1
15:00 – 15:25 Tropical Cyclone Rainfall-driven Flood Risk Assessment
Ali Sarhadi*, Kerry Emanuel, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
1C-2
15:25 – 15:55 Does PMP have an AEP? CO-NM REPS findings bridge deterministic and probabilistic approaches
Bill McCormick*, Mark Perry, Colorado Division of Water Resources; Kelly Mahoney and Rob Cifelli, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminstration (NOAA)
1C-3
15:55 – 16:20 Local Intense Precipitation (LIP) Flooding PFHA Pilot Study
Rajiv Prasad*, Yong Yuan, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)
1C-4
 
16:20 – 16:30 Break
 
16:30 – 16:50 Precipitation Panel Discussion
All Speakers
1C-5
 
16:50 – 17:00 Session 1D: Day 1 Wrap-up Discussion
 

* denotes speaker

Day 2 Agenda: Tuesday, February 23, 2021
10:00 – 10:05 Day 2 Welcome
Session 2A: Riverine Flooding
Session Chair: Mark Fuhrmann, NRC/RES
10:05 – 10:35 KEYNOTE - Estimating Flood Frequency using Stochastic Storm Transposition, Gridded Precipitation Data, and Physics-based Modeling
Daniel Wright*, Guo Yu, University of Wiscinsin-Madison; Kathleen Holman, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR)
2A-1
10:35 – 11:05 Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment for a Small Watershed in Eastern Tennessee: Methodology and Lessons Learned
Periandros Samothrakis*, Craig Talbot, Kit Ng, and Stewart Taylor, Bechtel Corporation
2A-2
11:05 – 11:30 Probabilistic Assessment of Multi-mechanism Floods in Inland Watersheds Due to Snowmelt-Driven Extreme Streamflow Events
Shih-Chieh Kao*, Scott T. DeNeale, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); Michelle Bensi, Somayeh Mohammadi, University of Maryland (UMD); Elena Yegorova, Joseph Kanney, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission(NRC); Meredith Carr, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Engineer Research and Development Center, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory (USACE/ERDC/CHL)
2A-3
 
11:30 – 11:45 Break
 
11:45 – 12:15 Updating design flood estimates at sites with changing variability
Jory S Hecht*, Nancy A. Barth, Karen R Ryberg and Angela E Gregory, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
2A-4
12:15 – 12:45 Historical and Paleoflood Analyses for Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessments—Approaches and Review Guidelines
Karen Ryberg*, Tessa Harden, Jonathan Friedman and Jim O'Connor, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
2A-5
12:45 – 13:05 Riverine Flooding Panel Discussion
All Speakers
2A-6
 
13:05 – 14:05 Lunch
 
Session 2B: Coastal Flooding
Session Chair: Meredith Carr, USACE/ERDC/CHL
14:05 – 14:35 KEYNOTE - A Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT)
Karthik Balaguru*, Wenwie Xu, David Judi, Lai-Yung (Ruby) Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)
2B-1
14:35 – 15:05 Storm Surge Modeling Uncertainty
Victor M. Gonzalez*, Norberto C. Nadal Caraballo, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Engineer Research and Development Center, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory (USACE/ERDC/CHL)
2B-2
15:05 – 15:35 Coastal Flooding PFHA Pilot Study
Karlie Wells*, Victor M. Gonzalez, Norberto C. Nadal Caraballo, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Engineer Research and Development Center, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory (USACE/ERDC/CHL)
2B-3
15:35 – 16:05 Probabilistic assessment of multi-mechanism floods in coastal areas due to hurricane-induced storm surge and river flow
Somayeh Mohammadi*, Michelle Bensi, University of Maryland (UMD); Shih-Chieh Kao, Scott T. DeNeale, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); Elena Yegorova, Joseph Kanney, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)
2B-4
16:05 – 16:25 Coastal Flooding Panel Discussion
All Speakers
2B-5
 
16:50 – 17:00 Session 2C: Day 2 Wrap-up Discussion
 

* denotes speaker

Day 3 Agenda: Wednesday, February 24, 2021
10:00 – 10:05 Day 3 Welcome
Session 3A: Modeling Frameworks
Session Chair: Tom Nicholson, NRC/RES
10:05 – 10:35 KEYNOTE - Stochastic Hydrology in the Tennessee Valley
Miles Yaw*, Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA)
3A-1
10:35 – 11:05 Riverine PFHA Pilot (WAT)
William Lehman*, Sara O'Connell, Brennan Beam and David Ho, Leila Ostadrahimi, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center (USACE/HEC)
3A-2
11:05 – 11:35 Structured Hazard Assessment Committee Process for Flooding (SHAC-F) for Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA)
Rajiv Prasad*, Philip Meyer, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL); Kevin Coppersmith, Coppersmith Consulting; Norberto C. Nadal-Caraballo, Victor M. Gonzalez, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Engineer Research and Development Center, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory (USACE/ERDC/CHL)
3A-3
11:35 – 11:55 Modeling Frameworks Panel Discussion
All Speakers
3A-4
 
11:55 – 12:10 Break
 
Session 3B: Flood Protection and Flooding Operating Experience
Session Chair: Tom Aird, NRC/RES
12:10 – 12:40 KEYNOTE - Modeling of the May 2020 Michigan Dam Breaches
Edward Stowasser*, Wesley Crosby and Christopher Warren, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE)
3B-1
12:40 – 13:10 Developing a Framework for Flood Barrier Testing Strategies
Zhegang Ma*, Sai Zhang and Curtis L. Smith, Idaho National Laboratory (INL); Chad L. Pope, Idaho State University (ISU)
3B-2
13:10 – 13:40 Qualitative Risk Ranking Process of External Flood Penetration Seals
Marko Randelovic*, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)
3B-3
13:40 – 14:00 Flood Protection and Flood Operating Experience Panel Discussion
All Speakers
3B-4
 
14:00 – 14:10 Session 3C: Day 3 Wrap-up Discussion
 
14:10 – 15:10 Lunch
 
Session 3D: Posters
15:10 – 16:30 Investigating Current and Future Precipitation Frequency Estimates for the State of Maryland: Challenges of Applying Machine Learning for Temporal Downscaling of Climate Model Projections
Azin Al Kajbaf*, Michelle T. Bensi, Kaye L. Brubaker, University of Maryland (UMD)
3D-1
15:10 – 16:30 Riverine Flooding HEC-WAT Pilot Project Dam Break Modeling
Brennan Beam*, William Lehman, Sara O'Connell, David Ho, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center (USACE/HEC)
3D-2
15:10 – 16:30 Nationwide (USA) Pluvial Flood Modeling via Telemac2D
Max Kipp*, Leo Kreymborg, Mike DePue, Atkins North America
3D-3
15:10 – 16:30 Combining the best of both worlds, using detailed flood analyses to inform rainfall accumulation characteristics for the World-Record July 1942 "Smethport" Storm – Supporting PMP and flood frequency analyses
Bill Kappel*, Applied Weather Associates (AWA); Joe Bellini, Aterra Solutions, LLC
3D-4
15:10 – 16:30 A Tale of Two Cores: harmonized paleoflood hydrologic data works best for estimating flood frequency and magnitude
Ray Lombardi*, Lisa Davis, University of Alabama (UA)
3D-5
 

* denotes speaker

Day 4 Agenda: Thursday, February 25, 2021
10:00 – 10:05 Day 4 Welcome
Session 4A: External Flooding PRA
Session Chair: Sarah Tabatabai, NRC/RES
10:05 – 10:35 Insights, limits and projections for EDF’s external flooding PRAs
Jeremy Gaudron*, Cecile Luzoir, Electricité de France (EDF)
4A-1
10:35 – 11:05 Methodology developed for the Belgian External Flooding PSA
Bogdan Golovchuk*, Filip Van Opstal, Tractebel ENGIE
4A-2
11:05 – 11:35 External Flooding PRA Guidance
Marko Randelovic*, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI); Raymond E. Schneider, Westinghouse Electric Company
4A-3
 
11:35 – 11:50 Break
 
Session 4B: Special Panel Discussion - Drivers of Uncertainty in External Flood Probabilistic Risk Assessment
Session Chair: Michelle (Shelby) Bensi, University of Maryland
11:50 – 13:20 Panelists:
Fernando Ferrante, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)
Norberto Nadal-Carraballo, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE)
Kit Ng, Bechtel Corporation
Jeremy Gaudron, Électricité de France (EDF)
Bogdan Golovchuk, Tractebel ENGIE
Ray Schneider, Westinghouse Electric Company;
Curtis Smith, Idaho National Laboratory (INL)
Jeff Mitman, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)
 
13:20 – 13:30 Break
 
13:30 – 13:50 Session 4C: Workshop Wrap-up Discussion
 

Contact Information

If you have questions or need further information regarding the workshop, please contact the following:

NRC Contacts:

Joe Kanney
Email: Joseph.Kanney@nrc.gov
Phone: (301) 415-1920

Elena Yegorova
Email: Elena.Yegorova@nrc.gov
Phone: (301) 415-2440

Mark Fuhrmann
Email: Mark.Fuhrmann@nrc.gov
Phone: (301) 415-0879

Thomas Aird
Email: Thomas.Aird@nrc.gov
Phone: (301) 415-2442

Page Last Reviewed/Updated Thursday, April 28, 2022