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Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research Workshop

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On March 21-24, 2023, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (NRC/RES) will host the 8th Annual NRC Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research Workshop. Presenters will include staff and contractors from the NRC, as well as participants from federal agencies, industry, academia, and other domestic and international organizations. Presentations will focus on current activities, recent results, and perspectives on future research directions in flood hazard assessment, flood protection/mitigation, and flood risk assessment. In addition to flooding, workshop topics will also include other (non-seismic) external hazards such as high winds, extreme temperatures, and wildfires.

This four-day public workshop will be a hybrid event, held online via MS Teams and in-person at the NRC headquarters in Rockville, Maryland. Workshop sessions are planned to run from 10am to 5pm (EST) each day. There is no cost to attend but registration will be required.

Anticipated Workshop Topics:

  • Climate and precipitation
  • Site-scale, riverine, and coastal flooding
  • Modeling frameworks
  • External flooding probabilistic risk assessment
  • Other (non-seismic) external hazards
  • External event operational experience

For Additional information contact: PFHAworkshop@nrc.gov

Registration

Registration for in person attendance for non-NRC attendees is now closed. Virtual registration is still open, and the deadline has been extended to March 17, 2023. Workshop attendance is free, but registration is required.

Registration

Abstract Submission

The workshop will feature both invited and submitted oral presentations and posters related to the topics listed above. The deadline for abstract submittal has been extended to February 13, 2023.

Submit Oral Presentation Abstract

Submit Poster Abstract

Abstract PDF

The organizers will try to honor all requests for oral/poster presentations, but due to time limitations and to maintain a balance of topics, we may ask some presenters to switch the format of their presentation. All presenters should register for the workshop.

For Additional information contact: PFHAworkshop@nrc.gov

Agenda

Agenda PDF

Day 1 Oral Presentations
  Session 1A: Introduction Session Chair: Joseph Kanney, NRC/RES Time
1A-0 Meeting and Webinar Logistics Kenneth Hamburger*, NRC/RES 10:00 - 10:10
1A-1 Opening Remarks Ray Furstenau*, Director, NRC Office of Research 10:10 - 10:20
1A-2 NRC PFHA Research Program Update Tom Aird*, NRC/RES 10:20 - 10:35
1A-3 Presentation and Training: Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool (RAPT) Karen Marsh, Benjamin Rance, Scott Mahlik*; Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) 10:35 - 11:00
1A-4 Committee on the Safety of Nuclear Installations (CSNI) Working Group on External Events (WGEV) Minkyu, Kim*, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Division of Structural and Seismic Safety (WGEV Chair) 11:00 - 11:25
  Break 11:25 - 11:40
  Session 1B: Climate and Weather Session Chair: Elena Yegorova, NRC/RES Time
1B-1 Overview of the U.S. Global Change Research Program Michael Kuperberg*, Executive Director, U.S. Global Research Program 11:40 - 12:05
1B-2 A Coastal Flood Regime Shift Is on the Horizon William Sweet*, NOAA National Ocean Service 12:05 - 12:30
  Lunch 12:30 - 13:30
1B-3 Observation-based Trajectory of Future Sea Level for the Coastal United States Tracks Near High-end Model Projections Benjamin Hamlington*1, Don Chambers2, Thomas Frederikse1, Soenke Dangendorf3, Severine Fournier1, Brett Buzzanga1,2, R. Steven Nerem4; 1NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, 2University of South Florida, 3Tulane University, 4University of Colorado, Boulder 13:30 - 13:55
1B-4 National Weather Service Forecasts for the late December 2022 to mid-January 2023 West Coast Atmospheric Rivers Mark Fresch*1, Alex Lamers2; 1NOAA National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center, 2NOAA National Weather Service Office of Water Prediction 13:55 - 14:20
  Break 14:20 - 14:30
1B-5 Sharpening of cold-season storms over the western United States Xiaodong Chen, L. Ruby Leung*, Yang Gao, Ying Liu, Mark Wigmosta; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory 14:30 - 14:55
1B-6 2022 U.S. Billion-dollar Weather and Climate Disasters Analysis and Tools Adam Smith*, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) 14:55 - 15:20
1B-7 Climate and Weather Panel Discussion All Prsenters 15:20 - 15:40
1C Day 1 Wrap-up   15:40 - 15:50
Day 2 Oral Presentations
  Session 2A: Introduction Session Chair: Joseph Kanney, NRC/RES Time
2A-1 NOAA’s Exploration of Future Probable Maximum Precipitation Datasets and Methods Kelly Mahoney*1, Janice Bytheway2, Diana Stovern2, James Correia3, Sarah Trojniak3, Ben Moore1; 1NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory (PSL), 2NOAA PSL/University of Colorado Boulder & Cooperative Institute for Earth System Research and Data Science (CIESRDS), 3University of Colorado Boulder & CIESRDS, NOAA/NWS/Weather Prediction Center 10:00 - 10:25
2A-2 The “Perfect Storm”: Can Atmospheric Models Improve Confidence In Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)? Emilie Tarouilly*, University of California, Los Angeles 10:25 - 10:50
2A-3 Improving the Reliability of Stochastic Modeling of Short-Duration Precipitation by Characterizing Spatiotemporal Correlation Structure and Marginal Distribution Giuseppe Mascaro*1, Simon Papalexio2,  Daniel Wright3; 1Arizona State University, 2University of Calgary, 3University of Wisconsin-Madison 10:50 - 11:15
  Break 11:15 - 11:25
2A-4 Stochastic Design Storm Sequence in the Lower Mississippi River Basin Yuan Liu*, Daniel Wright; University of Wisconsin-Madison 11:25 - 11:50
2A-5 An Update to the NOAA Atlas 14 National Precipitation Frequency Standard Sandra Palovic*, NOAA National Weather Service Office of Water Prediction 11:50 - 12:15
2A-6 Precipitation Panel Discussion All Presenters 12:15 - 12:35
  Lunch 12:35 - 13:30
  Session 2B: Riverine Flooding Session Chair: Joseph Kanney, NRC/RES Time
2B-1 Lowering the Barriers to Process-Based Probabilistic Flood Frequency Analysis using the NextGen Water Modeling Framework Daniel, Wright*1, Ankita Pradhan1, Mohammad Sadegh Abbasian1, Benjamin Fitzgerald1, Gary Aaron1, Fred Ogdan2, Mathew Williamson2; 1University of Wisconsin-Madison, 2NOAA National Water Service Office of Water Prediction 13:30 - 13:55
2B-2 Towards the development of a high-resolution historical flood inundation reanalysis dataset for the conterminous United States Sudershan Gangrade*1, Ganesh Ghimire1, Shih-Chieh Kao1, Mario Morales-Hernandez2, Michael Kelleher1, Alfred Kalyanapu3; 1Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2University of Zaragoza (Spain), 3Tennessee Technological University 13:55 - 14:20
2B-3 Quantifying Uncertainty for Local Intense Precipitation and Riverine Flooding PFHA at Critical Structures on the Idaho National Labs Property Ryan Johnson*1, Shaun Carney1, Paul Micheletty1, Debbie Martin1, Bruce Barker2; 1RTI International, 2MGS Engineering 14:20 - 14:45
  Break 14:45 - 14:55
2B-4 Back to the Future: Paleoflood Hydrologic Analyses Provide Insights into Extreme Flood Risk in the Tennessee River Basin Lisa Davis*1, Ray Lombardi2, Matthew Gage1; 1University of Alabama, 2University of Memphis 14:55 - 15:20
2B-5 Testing New Approaches to Integrating Sediment-Based Flood Records into Flood Frequency Models Ray Lombardi*1, Lisa Davis2, Tessa Harden3,4, John F. England, Jr.5; 1University of Memphis, 2University of Alabama, 3Thomas College, 4U.S. Geological Survey, 5U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Risk Management Center 15:20 - 15:45
2B-6 Using Paleoflood Analyses to Improve Hydrologic Loading for USACE Dam Safety Risk Assessments: A Nationwide Approach Keith Kelson*1, Justin Pearce2, Amy LeFebvre2, Ryan Clark3, Bryan Freymuth4, Nathan Williams5, John England2; 1US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), South Pacific Division Dam Safety Production Center, 2USACE Risk Management Center, 3USACE Dam Safety Modification Mandatory Center of Expertise, 4USACE Northwest Division Risk Cadre, 5USACE Lakes and Rivers Division Risk Cadre 15:45 - 16:10
2B-7 Riverine Flooding Panel Discussion All Presenters 16:10 - 16:30
2C Day 2 Wrap-up   16:30 - 16:40
Day 3 Oral Presentations
  Session 3A: Posters Session Chair: Thomas Aird, NRC/RES  
3A-1 Identifying and Cataloging Major Storm Events from Gridded Quantitative Precipitation Estimates for use in Stochastic Storm Transposition Alyssa Dietrich*, Eric King, Seth Lawler; Dewberry 10:00 - 10:15
3A-2 A Bayesian Network and Monte Carlo Simulation PRA Approach for External Flood Probabilistic Risk Assessments at Nuclear Power Plants Joy Shen*, Michelle Bensi, Mohammad Modarres; University of Maryland, College Park 10:15 - 10:30
3A-3 Probabilistic Compound Flood Hazard Assessment Using Two-Sided Conditional Sampling Somayeh Mohammadi*1, Ahmed Nasr2, Muthukumar Narayanaswamy1, Celso Ferreira1, Arslaan Khalid1; 1Michael Baker International Inc, 2University of Central Florida 10:30 - 10:45
3A-4 Estimation of Probabilistic Flood Hazard Curve at the NPP Site Considering Storm Surge Beom-Jin Kim*, Minkyu, Kim; Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) 10:45 - 11:00
3A-5 Compound Flood Risk Assessment of the Coastal Watersheds of Long Island and Long Island Sound in Connecticut and New York Liv Herdman*, Robert Welk, Robin Glas, Salme Cook, Kristina Masterson; U.S. Geological Survey New York Water Science Center 11:00 - 11:15
  Break 11:15 - 11:25
3A-6 Steps Toward Extensions of Existing Probabilistic Coastal Hazard Analysis for Coastal Compound Flood Analysis Leveraging Bayesian Networks Ziyue Liu*1, Michelle, Bensi1, Meredith Carr2, Norberto Nadal-Caraballo2, Madison Yawn2, Luke Aucoin2; 1University of Maryland, College Park, 2U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Engineer R&D Center, Coastal & Hydraulics Laboratory 11:25 - 11:40
3A-7 Assessing Uncertainty Associated with Hurricane Predictions and Duration to Inform Probabilistic Risk Assessments for Nuclear Power Plants Kaveh Faraji Najarkolaie*, Michelle Bensi, University of Maryland, College Park 11:40 - 11:55
3A-8 Assessment of Uncertainty Associated with the Development of Intensity Duration Frequency Curves under Changing Climate for the State of Maryland Azin Al Kajbaf*1, Michelle Bensi2, Kaye Brubaker2; 1Johns Hopkins University, 2University of Maryland, College Park 11:55 - 12:10
  Lunch 12:10 - 13:10
  Session 3B: Coastal Flooding Session Chair: Joseph Kanney, NRC/RES  
3B-1 Flood Inundation Modelling on Nuclear Power Plant Site due to Complex Disasters Byunghyun Kim*1, Jaewan Yoo, Beomjin Kim2, Minkyu Kim2; 1Kyungpook National University, 2Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute 13:10 - 13:35
3B-2 Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment for a Coastal Nuclear Power Plant Using Climate Change Projections Gorkem Gunger*, Zeynep Arslan; Minstry of Energy and Natural Resources, Turkey 13:35 - 14:00
3B-3 Probabilistic Coastal Compound Flood Hazard Analysis Pilot Study Victor M. Gonzalez1, Meredith L. Carr*1, Luke Aucoin1, T. Chris Massey1, Ning Lin2, Dazhi Xi2, Norberto C. Nadal Caraballo1, Karlie Wellls1; 1U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Engineer Research and Development Center, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, 2Princeton University 14:00 - 14:25
  Break 14:25 - 14:35
3B-4 HEC-RAS Modeling Framework and Lessons Learned from Coastal Flooding PFHA Pilot Study: Coupling and Automation of HEC-HMS and ADCIRC Outputs to 2D HEC-RAS Model Using Python Kathleen Haris*, Chase Hamilton, Weleska Echevarria-Doyle, Meredith Carr, Victor Gonzales Nieves; U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Engineer Research and Development Center, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory 14:35 - 15:00
3B-5 An Overview of a Multi-Agency Modeling Effort to Quantify Future Conditions in the Great Lakes Margaret Owensby*1, T. Chris Massey1, Robert Jensen1, Norberto Nadal-Caraballo1, Madison Yawn1, David Bucaro2, Johnna Potthoff2, Kaitlyn McClain2; 1U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Engineer Research and Development Center, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, 2U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Chicago District 15:00 - 15:25
3B-6 Coastal Flooding Panel Discussion All Presenters 15:25 - 15:45
3C Day 3 Wrap-up   15:45 - 15:55
Day 4 Oral Presentations
  Session 4A: Operational Experience Session Chair: Tom Aird, NRC/RES  
4A-1 PRA Modeling the FLEX Strategies for External Hazards John Hanna*, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation 10:00 - 10:20
4A-2 Failure to Verify Flood Restoration Times at Millstone Unit 2 Dave Werkheiser*, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Region 1 10:20 - 10:40
4A-3 Impact of the 2022 Lake Erie Seiche the Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Daniel Mills*1, Russ Cassara1, John Hanna2; 1U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Davis Bessie Resident Inspector, 2U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation 10:40 - 11:00
4A-5 Operational Experience Panel Discussion All Presenters 11:00 - 11:15
  Break 11:15 - 11:25
  Session 4B: Wrapping Up Session Chair: Tom Aird, NRC/RES  
4B-1 On Fuzzy-Systems Modeling of Ponded Infiltration, as Analogue to Flooding, in Fractured-Porous Subsurface Media Boris Faybishenko*; Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 11:25 - 11:50
  Lunch 11:50 - 13:00
4B-2 Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment for Local Intense Precipitation at Nuclear Power Plant Sites – A Pilot Study Rajiv Prasad*1, Arun Veeramany1, Rajesh K. Singh1, Joseph Kanney2; 1Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 2U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission 13:00 - 13:25
4B-3 Research Activities on Extreme External Hazard Risk Assessment of Korean NPP Minkyu Kim*, Daegi, Hahm; Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) 14:00 - 14:25
  Break 13:50 - 14:00
4B-4 External Flooding PRA Guidance Marko Randelovic*1, Raymond Schneider*2; 1Electric Power Research Institute, 2Westinghouse Company 14:00 - 14:25
4B-5 A Proposal for Paradigm Shift in Hydrological Ensemble Predictions: From Parameter Inference to Probabilistic Error Estimation Vinh Ngoc Tran*1, Valeriy Y. Ivanov1, Donghui Xu1, Jongho Kim2; 1University of Michigan, 2University of Ulsan, South Korea 14:25 - 14:50
4D Workshop Wrap-up Discussion   14:50 - 15:10

Past Workshop Proceedings

Document Number Title Publish Date
RIL 2022–10 Proceedings of the Seventh Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Workshop 09/14/2022
RIL 2022–02 Proceedings of the Sixth Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Workshop 08/03/2022
RIL 2021–01 Proceedings of the Fifth Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Workshop 01/31/2021
RIL 2020–01 RIL 2020–01, Part 1, - Proceedings of NRC Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Research Workshops I-IV 02/03/2020
RIL 2020–01, Part 2, - Proceedings of NRC Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Research Workshops I-IV 02/03/2020
RIL 2020–01, Part 3, - Proceedings of NRC Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Research Workshops I-IV 02/03/2020
RIL 2020–01, Part 4, - Proceedings of NRC Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Research Workshops I-IV 02/03/2020

Contact Information

If you have questions or need further information regarding the workshop, please contact the following:

NRC Contacts:

Joe Kanney
Email: Joseph.Kanney@nrc.gov
Phone: (301) 415-1920

Elena Yegorova
Email: Elena.Yegorova@nrc.gov
Phone: (301) 415-2440

Thomas Aird
Email: Thomas.Aird@nrc.gov
Phone: (301) 415-2442

Page Last Reviewed/Updated Monday, March 20, 2023