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On February 19-21, 2020, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (NRC/RES) will host the 5th Annual NRC Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research Workshop at NRC headquarters in Rockville, Maryland. Staff and contractors from NRC, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), federal agencies, industry, and other organizations involved in flood hazard assessment, flood risk assessment, and flood protection/mitigation research will provide information on recent results, current activities, and perspectives on future research directions. This three-day workshop is open to the public at no charge. Space may be limited, so advanced registration is required (a remote participation option via webinar is planned).
Conference Proceedings
Document Number |
Title |
Publish Date |
RIL 2021–01 |
Proceedings of the Fifth Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Workshop |
01/31/2021 |
RIL–2001 |
RIL-2001, Part 1, - Proceedings of NRC Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Research Workshops I-IV |
02/03/2020 |
RIL-2001, Part 2, - Proceedings of NRC Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Research Workshops I-IV |
02/03/2020 |
RIL-2001, Part 3, - Proceedings of NRC Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Research Workshops I-IV |
02/03/2020 |
RIL-2001, Part 4, - Proceedings of NRC Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Research Workshops I-IV |
02/03/2020 |

Agenda
AGENDA: WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 19, 2020
09:00 – 09:10 |
Welcome & Logistics |
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Session 1A: Introduction
Session Chair: Joseph Kanney, NRC/RES/DRA |
09:00 – 09:10 |
Logistics |
1A-0 |
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Kenneth Hamburger, NRC/RES/DRA/FXHAB
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09:10 – 09:20 |
Introduction |
1A-1 |
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Raymond Furstenau*, Director, NRC Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research
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09:20 – 09:35 |
NRC Flooding Research Program Overview |
1A-2 |
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Joseph Kanney, Meredith Carr*, Tom Aird, Elena Yegorova, Mark Fuhrmann and Jacob Philip, NRC/RES
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09:35 – 09:50 |
Overview of recent activities at USACE-RMC |
1A-3 |
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Haden Smith*, Risk Management Center, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE)
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09:50 – 10:05 |
IRSN External Flooding Research Program Overview |
1A-4 |
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Vincent Rebour*, Institut de radioprotection et de sûreté nucléaire (IRSN) Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety Institute
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10:05 – 10:20 |
Nuclear Energy Agency: Committee on the Safety of Nuclear Installations (CSNI): Working Group on External Events (WGEV) Flooding Overview |
1A-5 |
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John Nakoski*, NRC/RES
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10:20 – 10:40 |
BREAK |
* denotes presenter, ^ denotes remote presenter |

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Session 1B: Climate
Session Chair: Elena Yegorova, NRC/RES/DRA |
10:40 – 11:10 |
Regional Climate Change Projections: Potential Impacts to Nuclear Facilities |
1B-1 |
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L. Ruby Leung* and Rajiv Prasad, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)
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11:10 – 11:35 |
Modeling of climate change induced flood risk in the Conasauga River Basin |
1B-2 |
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Tigstu T. Dullo, Tennessee Technical University (TTU), Sudershan Gangrade, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Md Bulbul Sharif, TTU, Mario Morales-Hernandez, ORNL, Alfred J. Kalyanapu, Sheikh K. Ghafoor, TTU, Shih-Chieh Kao* and Katherine J. Evans, ORNL
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11:35 – 12:00 |
KEYNOTE - Causality and extreme event attribution. Or was my house flooded because of climate change? |
1B-3 |
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Michael F. Wehner^, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
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12:00 – 12:25 |
Attribution of Flood Nonstationarity across the United States—Climate–Related Analyses |
1B-4 |
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Karen Ryberg*, Stacey A. Archfield, William H. Asquith, Nancy A. Barth, Katherine J. Chase, Jesse E. Dickinson, Robert W. Dudley, Angela E. Gregory, Tessa M. Harden, Glenn A. Hodgkins, David Holtschlag, Delbert Humberson, Christopher P. Konrad, Sara B. Levin, Daniel E. Restivo, Roy Sando, Steven K. Sando, Eric D. Swain, Anne C. Tillery, Benjamin C. York, Julie E. Kiang; U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
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12:25 – 13:30 |
LUNCH |
* denotes presenter, ^ denotes remote presenter |

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Session 1C: Precipitation
Session Chair: Elena Yegorova, NRC/RES/DRA |
13:30 – 14:00 |
KEYNOTE: Planned Improvements for NOAA Atlas 14 Process and Products |
1C-1 |
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Sanja Perica*, Hydrometeorological Design Studies Center, Office of Water Prediction, National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/NWS/OWP/HDSC), Sandra Pavlovic, Michael St. Laurent, Carl Trypaluk, Dale Unruh, NOAA/NWS/OWP/HDSC and University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
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14:00 – 14:25 |
Application of Point Precipitation Frequency Estimates to Watersheds |
1C-2 |
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Shih-Chieh Kao*, Scott T. DeNeale, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)
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14:25 – 14:50 |
How well can Kilometer-Scale Models Capture Recent Intense Precipitation Events? |
1C-3 |
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Andreas F. Prein*, David Ahijevych, Jordan Powers, Ryan Sobash, Craig Schwartz, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
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14:50 – 15:05 |
BREAK |
15:05 – 15:30 |
Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment of NPP Site considering Extreme Precipitation in Korea (Tentative due to emergent travel issue) |
1C-4 |
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Kun-Yeun Han*, Beom-Jin Kim, Kyungpook National University, Korea; Minkyu Kim, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Korea
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15:30 – 15:55 |
Analysis of Heavy Multi-day Precipitation Events in CMIP6 Model Simulations in Support of the Fifth National Climate Assessment |
1C-5 |
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Kenneth Kunkel*, North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies, North Carolina State University and David Easterling, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information
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15:55 – 16:10 |
Daily Wrap-up |
* denotes presenter, ^ denotes remote presenter |

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AGENDA: THURSDAY, February 20, 2020
08:55 – 09:10 |
Day 2 Welcome |
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Session 2A: Riverine Flooding
Session Chairs: Meredith Carr and Mark Fuhrmann, NRC/RES/DRA |
09:00 – 09:30 |
KEYNOTE: An Overview NOAA's National Water Model |
2A-1 |
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Brian Cosgrove*, NOAA/NWS/OWP, David Gochis, Research Applications Laboratory, NCAR, Thomas Graziano, Ed Clark, and Trey Flowers, NOAA/NWS/OWP
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09:30 – 09:55 |
Moving Beyond Streamflow: Quantifying Flood Risk and Impacts through Detailed Physical Process and Geospatial Representation using the WRF-Hydro Modeling System |
2A-2 |
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David Gochis*, Aubrey Dugger Laura Read, NCAR
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09:55 – 10:20 |
Extreme Flood Hazard Assessment – Overview of a probabilistic methodology and its implementation for a Swiss river system |
2A-3 |
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V.N. Dang, C.A. Whealton, Paul Scherrer Institute
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10:20 – 10:45 |
Practical Approaches to Probabilistic Flood Estimates: an Australian perspective |
2A-4 |
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Rory Nathan*, University of Melbourne
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10:45 – 11:05 |
BREAK |
11:05 – 11:30 |
Columbia River Basin Regional Hydrology Studies: Regional Statistical Analyses for Flood Risk Assessment |
2A-5 |
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Angela M. Duren*, Northwest Division, USACE Portland
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11:30 – 11:55 |
Reducing uncertainty in estimating rare flood events using paleoflood analyses: Insights from an investigation near Stillhouse Hollow Dam, TX |
2A-6 |
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Justin Pearce^, USACE, Risk Management Center; Brian Hall, USACE, Alessandro Parola, USACE Fort Worth; Brendan Comport, USACE Seattle; Christina Leonard, Utah State University
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11:55 – 12:20 |
Improving Flood Frequency Analysis with a Multi-Millennial Record of Extreme Floods on the Tennessee River near Chattanooga, TN |
2A-7 |
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Tess Harden*, Jim O’Connor, USGS
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12:20 – 13:30 |
Lunch |
13:30 – 13:55 |
Estimating Design Floods with Specified Annual Exceedance Probabilities Using the Bayesian Estimation and Fitting Software (RMC-BestFit) |
2A-8 |
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Haden Smith*, Risk Management Center, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE/RMC)
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* denotes presenter, ^ denotes remote presenter |

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Session 2B: Coastal Flooding
Session Chair: Joseph Kanney, NRC/RES |
13:55 – 14:20 |
Coastal KEYNOTE: South Atlantic Coast Study: Coastal Hazards System |
2B-1 |
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Norberto C. Nadal-Caraballo*, Chris Massey, Victor M. Gonzalez, USACE Engineer R&D Center, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory (USACE/ERDC/CHL), Kelly Legault, USACE Jacksonville District
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14:20 – 14:45 |
Data, Models, Methods, and Uncertainty Quantification in Probabilistic Storm Surge Models |
2B-2 |
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Norberto C. Nadal-Caraballo*, Victor M. Gonzalez, Efrain Ramos-Santiago, Madison O. Campbell, USACE/ERDC/CHL
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14:45 – 15:10 |
Using Physical Insights in Spatial Decomposition Approaches to Surge Hazard Assessment |
2B-3 |
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Jennifer Irish*, Virginia Tech, Donald T. Resio, University of North Florida, Michelle Bensi, University of Maryland, Taylor G. Asher, University of North Carolina, Yi Liu, Virginia Tech, Environmental Science Associates, Jun-Whan Lee, Virginia Tech
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15:10 – 15:35 |
Investigation of Surrogate Modeling Application in Storm Surge Assessment |
2B-4 |
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Azin Al Kajbaf*, Michelle (Shelby) Bensi, University of Maryland
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15:35 – 15:45 |
Daily Wrap-up |
2B-4 |
15:45 – 17:00 |
Session 2C: Poster Session
Session Chair: Thomas Aird, NRC/RES/DRA |
18:00 – 20:00 |
Group Dinner: TBD |
* denotes presenter, ^ denotes remote presenter |

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AGENDA: FRIDAY, February 21, 2020
08:55 – 09:00 |
Day 3 Welcome |
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Session 3A: Modeling Frameworks
Session Chair: Thomas Nicholson, NRC/RES/DRA |
09:00 – 09:25 |
Structured Hazard Assessment Committee Process for Flooding (SHAC-F) for Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) |
3A-1 |
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Rajiv Prasad* and Phillip Meyer, PNNL; Kevin Coppersmith, Coppersmith Consulting, Norberto C. Nadal-Caraballo, Victor M. Gonzalez, USACE/ERDC/CHL
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09:25 – 09:50 |
Using HEC-WAT to Conduct a PFHA on a Medium Watershed |
3A-2 |
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Will Lehman*, Brennan Beam, Matthew Fleming, and Leila Ostadrahimi, USACE, Institute for Water Resources, Hydrologic Engineering Center (IWR/HEC), Joseph Kanney, Meredith Carr, NRC
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09:50 – 10:15 |
Paleoflood Analyses for Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessments—Approaches and Review Guidelines |
3A-3 |
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Tessa Harden*, Karen Ryberg*, Jim E. O’Connor, Jonathan M. Friedman, and Julie E. Kiang, USGS
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10:15 – 10:40 |
Probabilistic Assessment of Flood Hazards Due to Combinations of Flooding Mechanisms: Study Progress and Next Steps |
3A-4 |
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Michelle (Shelby) Bensi* and Somayeh Mohammadi, University of Maryland, Shih-Chieh Kao and Scott DeNeale, ORNL
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10:40 – 10:55 |
BREAK |
* denotes presenter, ^ denotes remote presenter |

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Session 3B: External Flooding Operating Experience
Session Chair: Thomas Aird, NRC/RES/DRA
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10:55 – 11:20 |
Risk and Operational Insights of the St. Lucie Flooding Event |
3B-1 |
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John David Hanna*, NRC Region III, Chicago, IL
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11:20 – 11:45 |
Reflections on Fort Calhoun Flooding Yellow Finding and 2011 Flooding Event Response |
3B-2 |
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Gerond George*, NRC Region IV, Arlington, TX
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11:45 – 12:10 |
2019 Cooper and Fort Calhoun Flooding Event Response |
3B-3 |
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Patricia Vossmar* and Mike Stafford*, NRC Region IV, Arlington, TX
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12:10 – 12:25 |
Panel Discussion |
3B-4 |
12:25 – 13:30 |
LUNCH |
* denotes presenter, ^ denotes remote presenter |

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Session 3C: Overview of NRC PFHA Pilot Studies
Session Chair: TBD
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13:30 – 13:40 |
Local Intense Precipitation Flooding PFHA Pilot |
3C-1 |
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Joseph Kanney*, NRC/RES, Rajiv Prasad, PNNL
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13:40 – 13:50 |
Riverine Flooding PFHA Pilot |
3C-2 |
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Meredith Carr*, NRC/RES, William Lehman, USACE/HEC
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14:50 – 14:00 |
Coastal Flooding PFHA Pilot |
3C-3 |
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Joseph Kanney*, NRC/RES, Norberto Nadal-Caraballo and Victor Gonzalez, USACE/ERDC/CHL
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14:00 – 14:10 |
Panel Discussion |
3C-4 |
* denotes presenter, ^ denotes remote presenter |

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Session 3D: Towards External Flooding PRA
Session Chair: Mehdi Reisi-Fard, NRC/NRR/DRA
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14:10 – 14:35 |
EPRI External Flooding PRA Activities |
3D-1 |
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Marko Randelovic*, Electric Power Research Institute
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14:35 – 15:05 |
KEYNOTE: Computational Methods for External Flooding PRA |
3D-2 |
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Curtis L. Smith*, Idaho National Laboratory
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15:05 – 15:30 |
External Flooding PSA in IRSN – developments and insights |
3D-3 |
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Maud Kervalla*, Gabriel Georgescu, Claire-Marie Duluc Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety (France)
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15:30 – 16:00 |
Final Wrap-up Discussion |
* denotes presenter, ^ denotes remote presenter |

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Speaker Instructions
Speaker Instructions:
- We can only run presentations from our equipment, so presentations must be sent ahead of time. We cannot use your laptop.
- We recommend you make a print copy of your power-point notes if you need them, as the laptop you will be using may only be able to be in presentation mode, where you will not be able to see those notes.
- If you are embedding videos or using sound:
- Please inform your POC right away.
- Provide a copy of the video in addition to the one that is embedded in your presentation ahead of the workshop. Having a local, linked copy will increase the likelihood of success in running it. However, be prepared in case the video or sound cannot be played.
- If you are planning to switch to the internet and demonstrate something from a website, please prepare a back-up as we cannot guarantee connection or speed of connection. You will likely only have slide advance and step back control of your presentation.
- It will get more difficult to update presentations as we near the Workshop, so you have changes, please contact your POC to arrange for an update of our system.

Poster Session
This year we are opening the poster session to confirmed registrants. The Poster Session is general, but focused on Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment and risk-informed and performance-based approached to external flood hazard assessment. Topics may include innovative research or case studies in, e.g. climate, extreme precipitation, watershed, river and coastal flooding research and case studies in a probabilistic or statistical framework, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and decision-making for external flooding or related external hazards, site mitigation and protection measures, guidance, methods, tools, model and software development, and external flooding operational experience in critical infrastructure. Existing posters can be used and there is no specific size standard.
To be considered for the poster session, please send a title, authors and affiliations and a brief description (<150 words) to the poster session coordinator, thomas.aird@NRC.gov by February 10th. The committee will briefly review your description for consistency with the conference focus and let you know promptly if your poster is accepted. Poster titles, authors and descriptions will be included in the agenda, the website, and in the proceedings.

Webinar Information
Remote participation via webinar is available by registering.

Hotel and Area Attractions Information
The NRC does not endorse any one particular property, rather, offers information on a number of hotels within a 10-mile radius of Headquarters. Nearby hotels include but are not limited to the following:
- Bethesda North Marriott Hotel and Conference Center, located at 5701 Marinelli Road, North Bethesda, Maryland 20852.
[Across Rockville Pike from NRC Headquarters]
- Bethesda Marriott, 5151 Pooks Hill Road, Bethesda, MD 20814
[Metrorail: 1.5 miles from the Medical Center stop on the Red line]
- Bethesda Marriott Suites, 6711 Democracy Boulevard, Bethesda, MD 20817
[Metrorail: 3.5 miles from the Grosvenor-Strathmore stop on the Red line]
- Canopy by Hilton, 940 Rose Avenue, North Bethesda, MD 20852
[Metrorail: .4 miles from the White Flint stop on the Red line]
- Courtyard Rockville, 2500 Research Boulevard, Rockville, MD 20850
[Metrorail: 3 miles from the Shady Grove stop on the Red line]
- DoubleTree by Hilton Hotel Bethesda - Washington DC Wisconsin Avenue, Bethesda, MD 20814
[Metrorail: 5 blocks from the Bethesda stop on the Red line]
- EVEN Hotel (formerly Holiday Inn Express) 1775 Rockville Pike, Rockville, MD 20852
[Metrorail: 1 block from the Twinbrook stop on the Red line]
- Hilton Washington DC/Rockville Executive Meeting Center, 1750 Rockville Pike, Bethesda, MD 20852
[Metrorail: adjacent to the Twinbrook stop on the Red line]
- DoubleTree by Hilton Hotel Washington DC/Silver Spring, 8727 Colesville Road, Silver Spring, MD 20910
[Metrorail: 4 blocks from the Silver Spring stop on the Red line]
- Hyatt Regency Bethesda, 7400 Wisconsin Avenue, Bethesda, MD 20814
[Metrorail: directly above the Bethesda stop on the Red line]
- Residence Inn by Marriott Bethesda Downtown, 7335 Wisconsin Avenue, Bethesda, MD 20814
[Metrorail: 1 block from the Bethesda stop on the Red line]
- Sheraton Rockville Hotel, 920 King Farm Boulevard, Rockville, MD 20850
[Metrorail: 6 blocks from the Shady Grove stop on the Red line]
Note: Taxi service is available in Bethesda and Rockville, and all hotels are driving distance to the Bethesda North Marriott Hotel and Conference Center.
The Washington, DC, metropolitan area provides culture, heritage, nationally acclaimed theaters, musical concerts, festivals, world-renowned shopping, inspiring monuments, and museums throughout the city. The list of activities and attractions is constantly changing, thanks to an active cultural community and special exhibits spanning the arts, history, and science. Not only are the city's sightseeing options vast in number, nearly all of them offer free admission. Please visit the Official Tourism Site of Washington, DC for detailed information. Visit for information on places to go and things to do in North Bethesda. Visit for information on places to go and things to do in Rockville.

If you have questions or need further information regarding the workshop, please contact the following:
Page Last Reviewed/Updated Thursday, April 28, 2022