United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission - Protecting People and the Environment

International HRA Empirical Study – Phase 3 Report: Results from Comparing HRA Methods Predictions to HAMMLAB Simulator Data on LOFW Scenarios (NUREG/IA-0216, Volume 3)

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Publication Information

Manuscript Completed: January 2013
Date Published: December 2014

Prepared by:
Vinh N. Dang1, John Forester2*, Ronald Boring3,
Helena Broberg4, Salvatore Massaiu4, Jeff Julius5,
IIkka Männistö6, Huafei Liao2, Pamela Nelson7,
Erasmia Lois8, Andreas Bye4

1Paul Scherre Institute, Switzerland
2Sandia National Laboratories, USA
3Idaho National Laboratory, USA
4Institute for Energy Technology, OECD Halden
Reactor Project, Norway
5Scientech, USA
6Technical Research Centre of Finland, Finland
7Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico
8U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, USA
*Currently with Idaho NationalLaboratory, USA

Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Washington, DC 20555-0001

Prepared by:
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (United States)
OECD Halden Reactor Project (Norway)

Published by:
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Washington, DC 20555-0001

Availability Notice


Volume 3 of NUREG/IA-0216 documents the results of Phase 3 of the International Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) Empirical Study. This three-phase study is a multinational, multiteam effort supported by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Halden Reactor Project (HRP), the Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate (ENSI), the U.S. Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Phase 3 has also been documented as a Halden publication (HWR-951, December 2011).

The objective of this study is to develop an empirically based understanding of the performance, strengths, and weaknesses of different HRA methods used to model human response to accident sequences in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs). The empirical basis was developed through experiments performed at the HRP's HAMMLAB (HAlden huMan-Machine LABoratory) research simulator, with real crews responding to accident situations similar to those modeled in PRAs. The scope of the study is limited to those HRA methods considered appropriate for evaluating internal events during full-power operations of current light water reactors. The study consists of performing HRAs for predefined human actions, with different HRA teams using different methods. Nuclear power plant crews perform these human actions at the Halden simulator, Halden experimentalists collect and interpret the data to fit HRA data needs, and an independent group of experts compares the results of each HRA method/team to the Halden crew performance data.

Volume 1 documented the pilot phase of the study, Phase 1. Volume 2 documented the results of Phase 2, which comprised the comparison, analysis, and evaluation of HRA predictions, using different methods to analyze crew performance results for nine steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) human actions. This volume documents the results of Phase 3, which comprised the comparison, analysis, and evaluation of HRA predictions relative to crew performance data for four loss-of-feedwater (LOFW) human actions. Strengths and limitations are identified and discussed for each individual method assessed, as well as for HRA in general. The overall findings of the study will be documented in NUREG-2127, "The International HRA Empirical Study – Final Report – Lessons Learned from Comparing HRA Methods Predictions to HAMMLAB Simulator," expected to be published by April 2013. The results of this study provide a technical basis for improving individual methods and existing guidance documents for performing and reviewing HRAs (e.g., NUREG-1792, "HRA Good Practices"), and for developing additional guidance and training materials for implementing individual.

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