The International HRA Empirical Study: Lessons Learned from Comparing HRA Methods Predictions to HAMMLAB Simulator Data (NUREG-2127)

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Publication Information

Manuscript Completed: December 2012
Date Published:
August 2014

Prepared by:
John Forester1,5, Vinh N. Dang2, Andreas Bye3,
Erasmia Lois4, Salvatore Massaiu3, Helena Broberg3,
Per Øivind Braarud3, Ronald Boring5, IIkka Männistö6,
Huafei Liao1, Jeff Julius7, Gareth Parry4,9, Pamela Nelson8

1Sandia National Laboratories, USA
2Paul Scherrer Institute, Switzerland
3Institute for Energy Technology, OECD Halden Reactor Project, Norway
4U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, USA
5Idaho National Laboratory, USA
6VTT, Finland
7Scientech, USA
8Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico
9ERIN Engineering

Erasmia Lois, NRC Project Manager

NRC Job Code N6129

Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Washington, DC 20555-0001

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This report documents the overall conclusions and lessons learned from the International Empirical HRA Study, documented in NUREG/IA-0216, Vols. 1-3, as well as in Halden Reactor Project reports (HWR-844, HWR-915, and HWR-951). The International HRA Empirical Study has developed an empirically based understanding of the performances, strengths, and weaknesses of a set of HRA methods through comparisons between human reliability analysis (HRA) predictions of crew performance in simulated scenarios and actual crew performance outcomes. The simulator experiments were conducted at the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) Halden Reactor Project’s Human-Machine Laboratory (HAMMLAB), Halden, Norway. This is a large-scale study; organizations from ten countries, representing industry, regulators, and the research community, participated.

This report summarizes the findings and insights for the individual HRA methods empirically tested in this study, as well as the overall observations and conclusions regarding the HRA discipline as a whole. In addition, it summarizes the methodology developed to allow comparisons between HRA results and crew performance and its merits for future studies, and reflects on individual analyses of crew simulator performance, providing evidence for improving both HRA practices and plant safety. It has also been published as a Halden report (HPR-373).

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