The International HRA Empirical Study: Lessons Learned from Comparing HRA Methods Predictions to HAMMLAB Simulator Data (NUREG-2127)

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Publication Information

Manuscript Completed: December 2012
Date Published: August 2014

Prepared by:
John Forester^1,5, Vinh N. Dang², Andreas Bye³,
Erasmia Lois⁴, Salvatore Massaiu³, Helena Broberg³,
Per Øivind Braarud³, Ronald Boring⁵, IIkka Männistö⁶,
Huafei Liao¹, Jeff Julius⁷, Gareth Parry^4,9, Pamela Nelson⁸

¹Sandia National Laboratories, USA
²Paul Scherrer Institute, Switzerland
³Institute for Energy Technology, OECD Halden Reactor Project, Norway
⁴U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, USA
⁵Idaho National Laboratory, USA
⁶VTT, Finland
⁷Scientech, USA
⁸Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico
⁹ERIN Engineering

Erasmia Lois, NRC Project Manager

NRC Job Code N6129

Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Washington, DC 20555-0001

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Abstract

This report documents the overall conclusions and lessons learned from the International Empirical HRA Study, documented in NUREG/IA-0216, Vols. 1-3, as well as in Halden Reactor Project reports (HWR-844, HWR-915, and HWR-951). The International HRA Empirical Study has developed an empirically based understanding of the performances, strengths, and weaknesses of a set of HRA methods through comparisons between human reliability analysis (HRA) predictions of crew performance in simulated scenarios and actual crew performance outcomes. The simulator experiments were conducted at the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) Halden Reactor Project’s Human-Machine Laboratory (HAMMLAB), Halden, Norway. This is a large-scale study; organizations from ten countries, representing industry, regulators, and the research community, participated.

This report summarizes the findings and insights for the individual HRA methods empirically tested in this study, as well as the overall observations and conclusions regarding the HRA discipline as a whole. In addition, it summarizes the methodology developed to allow comparisons between HRA results and crew performance and its merits for future studies, and reflects on individual analyses of crew simulator performance, providing evidence for improving both HRA practices and plant safety. It has also been published as a Halden report (HPR-373).