Issues and Recommendations for Advancement of PRA Technology In Risk-Informed Decision Making (NUREG/CR-6813)

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Publication Information

Manuscript Completed: January 2003
Date Published: April 2003

Prepared by:
Karl N. Fleming
Technology Insights
6540 Lusk Boulevard, Suite C-102
San Diego, California 92121

H.P. Nourbakhsh, NRC Project Manager

Prepared for:
Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Washington, DC 20555-0001

NRC Job Code B1564

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The purpose of this report is to assess the adequacy of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for use in regulatory decisions and provide recommendations for its advancements. The insights and recommendations documented in this report were developed by conducting interviews, examining case studies in risk-informed regulation, and by applying experience in developing and applying PRA technology and participating in PRA peer reviews. A number of insights were developed from the review of the recent Davis-Besse vessel head degradation and previous risk-informed and deterministic safety evaluations of the Alloy 600 nozzle cracking issue. Using the author's experience in performing and reviewing several of the existing industry PRAs, a number of technical issues were identified that help defines the current state of the art in PRA technology. The results and conclusions of this report include a number of recommendations intended to resolve some of the issues that were identified and to advance the use of PRAs in risk-informed decision making.

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