Guidance for Performing Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for a Nuclear Plant Site: Example Application to the Southeastern United States (NUREG/CR-6607,UCRL-ID-133494)

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Publication Information

Manuscript Completed: September 2002
Date Published:
October 2002

Prepared by:
J.B. Savy, W. Foxall, N. Abrahamson, D. Bernreuter

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Livermore, California 94550

E. Zurflueh and S. Pullani, NRC Project Managers

Prepared for:
Division of Engineering Technology
Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Washington, DC 20555-0001

NRC Job Codes W6496 and Y6245

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From 1981 to 1989, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) developed a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) method for the eastern United States (NUREG/CR-5250), followed in 1993 by improvements in the handling of the uncertainties (NUREG-1488). Differences between these results and those of a utilities-sponsored study (Electric Power Research Institute, 1989) led to the formation of the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) to identify the sources of differences and give guidance on how to perform a state-of the-art PSHA (NUREG/CR-6372, 1997).

The present study is a trial implementation of the SSHAC guidance. As part of the project, additional guidance was developed and proposed for performing a PSHA. The trial implementation project tested the issue of development of the seismic zonation and seismicity models for two sites: Watts Bar and Vogtle. It was found that the uncertainty generated by disagreements among experts could be considerably reduced through interaction and discussion of the data, and by concentrating on the elements common to all experts' interpretations. The present study includes analyses of the differences between its results and the NUREG-1488 results (Appendix G).

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