United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission - Protecting People and the Environment

SECPOP90: Sector Population, Land Fraction, and Economic Estimation Program (NUREG/CR-6525/SAND93-4032, Initial Report)

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Publication Information

Manuscript Completed: July 1997
Date Published:
September 1997

Prepared by:
S. L. Humphreysa
J. A. Rollstinb
J. N. Ridgelyc

aSandia National Laboratories
Albuquerque, NM 87185-0748

Subcontractor.

bGRAM, Inc
8500 Menaul Blvd., NE
Albuquerque, NM 87112

cJ.N. Ridgely, NRC Project Manager

Prepared for:
Division of Systems Technology
Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Washington, DC 20555-0001

NRC Job Code J6024

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Abstract

In 1973 Mr W. Athey of the Environmental Protection Agency wrote a computer program called SECPOP which calculated population estimates. Since that time, two things have changed which suggested the need for updating the original program – more recent population censuses and the widespread use of personal computers (PCs) The revised computer program uses the 1990 and 1992 Population Census information and runs on current PCs as "SECPOP90"

SECPOP90 consists of two parts. site and regional The site analysis provides population and economic data estimates for any location within the continental United States Siting analysis is relatively fast running The regional portion assesses site availability for different siting policy decisions, i. e. , the impact of available sites given specific population density criteria within the continental United States. Regional analysis is slow.

This report compares the SECPOP90 population estimates and the nuclear power reactor licensee-provided information. Although the source, and therefore the accuracy, of the licensee information is unknown, this comparison suggests SECPOP90 makes reasonable estimates Given the total uncertainty in any current calculation of severe accidents, including the potential offsite consequences, the uncertainty within SECPOP90 population estimates is expected to be insignificant.

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