A Review of the Three Mile Island-1 Probabilistic Risk Assessment (NUREG/CR-5457, EGG-2572)

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Publication Information

Manuscript Completed: September 1989
Date Published: November 1989

Prepared by:
H.J. Reilly¹, D.L Schurman¹, H.J. Welland¹, R.C. Bertucio²,
S.A. Eide³, P.R. Davis⁴, S.E. Mays⁵, A.J. Buslik⁶, N.C. Chokshi⁶

¹ EG&G Idaho, Inc.
P.O. Box 1625
Idaho Falls, Idaho 83415

² EI International, Inc. (presently with NUS Corporation)
³ EI International, Inc.
⁴ PRD Consulting
⁵ Tenera
⁶ U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission

for Idaho National Engineering Laboratory
Managed by the U.S. Department of Energy
Under DOE Contract No. DE-AC07-761D01570

Prepared for:
Division of Systems Research
Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Washington, DC 20555-0001

NRC FIN A-6892

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Abstract

The Level I Probabilistic Risk Assessment that was prepared by Pickard, Lowe and Garrick for GPU Nuclear, and forwarded to NRC, was reviewed. The review included both plant internal events and three kinds of external events: plant fires, seismic events and river flooding. At the close of the review, the authors estimated the frequencies the core damage sequences would have if the recommended corrections were made to the data and assumptions. It was concluded that the recommended corrections would have a major on the estimated risk profile of TMI-1, including major increases in some sequence frequencies and major decreases in others.