Probabilistic Models for the Behavior of Compartment Fires (NUREG/CR-2269)

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Publication Information

Manuscript Completed: November 1980
Date Published: August 1981

Prepared by:
Nathan O. Siu
School of Engineering and Applied Science
University of California
Los Angeles, CA 90024

Prepared for:
Risk Methodology and Data Branch
Division of Risk Analysis
Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Washington, DC 20555-0001

NRC FIN B-6284

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Abstract

Physical models which predict the thermal hazards (including temperatures and heat fluxes) during a compartment fire as functions of space and time are developed. Since large uncertainties are inherent to the analysis the models are probabilistic.

General models are constructed for the periods of fire growth and fully developed burning. These models are used in sample-analyses to estimate the fire hazard in particular compartments.

The overall methodology requires the synthesis of a deterministic physical model from information available in the literature. Uncertainties in the input parameters required by the deterministic model are assessed and are incorporated with. the uncertainties in the model itself to form state of knowledge distributions for the thermal hazards.