Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment - June 29, 2000

                       UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
                                                                 Nuclear Regulatory Commission
                                   Room T-2B3
                                                                 Two White Flint North
                                   11545 Rockville Pike
                                   Rockville, Maryland
                                                                 Thursday, June 29, 2000
               The committee met, pursuant to notice, at 8:30
               GEORGE E. APOSTOLAKIS, Chairman
               THOMAS S. KRESS, ACRS Member
               JOHN D. SIEBER, ACRS Member
               MARIO V. BONACA, ACRS Member
               ROBERT E. UHRIG, ACRS Member
               WILLIAM J. SHACK, ACRS Member
     Paul A. Boehnert, ACRS Staff
     John T. Larkins, Executive Director, ACRS
     Michael T. Markley, ACRS Staff
     Howard J. Larson, ACRS/ACNW Staff
     Noel F. Dudley, ACRS Staff
     Cindi Carpenter, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
     Tom Bergman, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
     Mike Cheok, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
     Mohammed Shwaibi, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
     Tim Reed, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
     Joe Williams, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
     Mark Rubin, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
     Bob Christie, Performance Technology, Incorporated
     Thomas King, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research
     Mary Drouin, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research
     John Lehner, Brookhaven National Laboratory
     Trevor Pratt, Brookhaven National Laboratory
     Allen Camp, Sandia National Laboratory
     Steve Floyd, Nuclear Energy Institute
     Adrian Heymer, Nuclear Energy Institute
     Biff Bradley, Nuclear Energy Institute.                            C O N T E N T S
     ATTACHMENT                                              PAGE
     Proposed Schedule                                        210
     Introductory Statement                                   210
     Petition for Rulemaking Combustible
       Gas Control                                            211
     PECO Energy Letter March 3, 2000                         213
     Risk-Informed 50.44                                      322
     Memorandum to Ashok C. Thadani                           344
     Risk-Informed Part 50 Option 2                           384
     Risk-Informed Regulation                                 384
     .                   P R O C E E D I N G S
                                               [8:30 a.m.]
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  The meeting will now come to
     order.  This is the second day of the meeting of the
     Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards, Subcommittee on
     Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment.
               I am George Apostolakis, Chairman of the
               ACRS members in attendance are Mario Bonaca, Tom
     Kress, William Shack, Jack Sieber, and Robert Uhrig.
               The purpose of this meeting is to discuss the
     status of risk-informed revisions to 10 CFR Part 50,
     including proposed revision to 10 CFR 50.44 concerning
     combustible gas control systems, issues in the Nuclear
     Energy Institute letter dated January 19, 2000, option
     three, and public comments related to the advanced notice of
     proposed rulemaking on 10 CFR 50.69, and Appendix T, option
               The subcommittee will gather information, analyze
     relevant issues and facts, and formulate proposed positions
     and actions, as appropriate, for deliberation by the full
               Michael T. Markley is the Cognizant ACRS Staff
     Engineer for this meeting.
               The rules for participation in today's meeting
     have been announced as part of the notice of this meeting
     previously published in the Federal Register on May 16,
               A transcript of the meeting is being kept and will
     be made available as stated in the Federal Register notice. 
     It is requested that speakers first identify themselves and
     speak with sufficient clarity and volume so that they can be
     readily heard.
     We have received no written comments from members of the
     public.  However, Mr. Bob Christie, of Performance
     Technology, Incorporated, has requested time to make a
     presentation concerning proposed revision to 10 CFR 50.44.
               I will remind the audience here that we wrote a
     letter to the Chairman, dated October 12, 1999, on primarily
     option two, but also option three.
               We will now proceed with the meeting and I call
     upon Ms. Cynthia Carpenter, NRR, to begin.
               MS. CARPENTER:  I thank you very much.  Tom
     Bergman, who is one of the co-leaders of the risk-informing
     Part 50 effort, is going to start off and then we'll have
     our speakers.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Good.  Thanks.
               MR. BERGMAN:  Yes, just quickly.  As you noted, we
     are here to present on option two, which is risk-informing
     the special treatment requirements.  We gave the committee
     three handouts this morning, one which is the slides.  We
     got a late comment letter, we've provided that to you, and
     we gave you a copy of our user needs memo, in addition to
     the material provided several weeks ago.
               The presentation, we have two new presenters for
     us.  They've both been on the core team since its inception. 
     The first is Mohammed.  He will be presenting the section on
     the ANPR comments.  Mohammed Shwaibi.  He's been with the
     agency for eight years, about both Region III and six years
     here at headquarters of the eight.
               In terms of option two, Mohammed, he led the
     effort to develop the criteria and methodology for selecting
     the rules in option two.  He drafted the ANPR and he is
     leading our evaluation of the comments we received.
               Joe Williams will be presenting preliminary staff
     views on treatment and he'll also cover the status and
     schedule.  He has been with the agency for ten years in the
     Division of Licensing Project Management, mostly with Browns
     Ferry, and 11 years in the industry.
               In terms of option two, he is the PM for our pilot
     program.  He's our principal interface with the South Texas
     exemption and he is leading the review of the NEI guideline
     on categorization and treatment, as well as the peer
     certification process.
               And you all know Mike Cheok.  He'll be addressing
     the portions on categorization and PRA peer certification
               MR. SHWAIBI:  Good morning.  My name is Mohammed
     Shwaibi, and, as Tom indicated, I'll be talking about the
     ANPR comments today.
               As you know, the ANPR was published on March 3. 
     There was a comment period of 75 days, which ended on May
     17.  In response to the ANPR, we received 11 comment
     letters, which included over 200 comments.  We received six
     letters from licensees and industry groups, two letters from
     law firms, one letter from a consulting firm, one letter
     from a professional society, and one from a member of the
               The comments were divided into four major
     categories.  I'll be talking about categories that related
     to the approach that we took.  We described in the ANPR
     comments that were related to the categorization process in
     Appendix T, comments related to treatment, and comments
     related to the pilot program that was presented in Appendix
     T -- I'm sorry -- in the ANPR.
               With regard to approach, we received comments that
     were in general agreement with the list of rules that were
     identified, with a proposal that the risk-informing of the
     rules be taken in a phased approach.
               The proposal was to risk-inform the rules that
     were special treatment type rules, such as 50.49 EQ rules,
     seismic qualification, and those types of rules, and the
     administrative rules, such as reporting, documentation, be
     done in a later phase, and to break up the tech spec rule in
     Appendix R and fire protection as a separate and parallel
               We were told to be performance-based in the
     approach that we take, make sure that the resulting rules
     are optional and allow for selective implementation for both
     the resulting rules and systems at the plant.
               We were told that the resulting rules should
     provide for limited NRC prior review and approval and that
     we should apply the backfit rule to option two.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Now, when you say that you
     received these comments, you have here 11 different letters.
               MR. SHWAIBI:  Yes.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Were they unanimous in these
               MR. SHWAIBI:  I'm sorry?
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Were they unanimous in the
     recommendations?  I mean, all 11 asked that the thing be
     selective, the subject of selective implementation?
               MR. SHWAIBI:  Pretty much, yes.  With regard to
     selective implementation, they were pretty unanimous.
               MR. BERGMAN:  For those that commented on it, to
     qualify that.
               MR. SHWAIBI:  Yes.
               MR. BERGMAN:  Where there was a comment on
     selective implementation, most of the commenters didn't
     address all the questions in the ANPR.  But for those that
     did, they were supportive of selective implementation.
               DR. UHRIG:  By selective implementation, do you
     mean voluntary?  That is, the utility has the option, or is
     this the NRC's selectivity?
               MR. SHWAIBI:  No.  It's the utility would have the
               DR. UHRIG:  Have the option.
               MR. SHWAIBI:  Yes.
               DR. UHRIG:  Then why would you apply the backfit
               MR. SHWAIBI:  Well, one of the commenters did
     indicate that we ought to apply the backfit rule so that the
     Commission can have a full understanding of what we're
     requiring in the proposed rule or in the final rule.  They
     said that we should not bypass the backfit rule just because
     it's voluntary.
               DR. UHRIG:  Is that standard procedure?  I thought
     it was not.
               MR. SHWAIBI:  I don't believe.
               MR. BERGMAN:  We have not decided how to address
     each individual comment.  We'll be doing that as part of our
     August paper.
               DR. UHRIG:  My comment was intended -- is this the
     procedure within NRC?  I thought if a rule was voluntary,
     you did not apply the backfit rule.
               MR. BERGMAN:  That is true.  That is how we've
     done it in the past and I believe that's what was said.
               DR. UHRIG:  Then why would this be different?
               MR. BERGMAN:  We haven't decided how we will
     address it.  We have a commenter who has proposed that we
     apply the backfit rule.  Whether or not we'll accept that
     comment we have not decided.
               MR. SHWAIBI:  This is just a summary of the
     comments that were provided.  We don't have positions yet on
               DR. KRESS:  By selective implementation, I thought
     you meant they could choose which of the rules they want to
     go by and which ones they didn't.
               MR. SHWAIBI:  That's correct.  The comments were
     provided on selective implementation with regard to the
     rules and selective implementation with regard to systems at
     the plants.  That is, a licensee could select which rules
     they want to implement and then they could also select which
     systems at the plant they chose to apply the risk-informed
     approach to.
               Moving on to the categorization of Appendix T.  We
     received comments that the Appendix T that was in ANPR was
     unduly detailed, prescriptive and burdensome.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Can you give us an example of
     what people felt was burdensome?
               MR. CHEOK:  I think one quick example of that,
     George, is that we had asked for all SSCs to be identified
     and what the current requirements for those SSCs are, and I
     think that one of the comments was that's asking too much
     for the SSCs, since there are thousands of them.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  But didn't South Texas do this?
               MR. CHEOK:  In a sense, they did, yes.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Yes.
               MR. CHEOK:  I think when we wrote Appendix T, the
     idea was that there was going to be minimal staff review and
     approval.  I think industry may be backing up a little bit
     instead of maybe there should be some kind of a submittal
     and, you know, when we make the submittal, we would like the
     rules to be less prescriptive, because then whenever they
     want to change the process, it's not allowed because it's
     not in the rules or the regulations.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Is this related to a
     recommendation I saw somewhere that Appendix T be eliminated
     and replaced by a regulatory guide?
               MR. CHEOK:  That's related to that recommendation,
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  And how does the staff feel
     about this?
               MR. CHEOK:  We are open to that recommendation. 
     The material in Appendix T can either reside there or it can
     reside in another document, like a reg guide or an industry
     document, which the staff endorses.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  So this is still to be decided.
               MR. CHEOK:  It's still be decided.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  And the unduly detailed, can you
     give an example of a detail that shouldn't be there?
               MR. SHWAIBI:  I could provide you some examples. 
     We have a list of examples.
               DR. SHACK:  Just coming back, while you're at it,
     I thought there was some discussion whether, if you put it
     in a reg guide, you had to do more review and approval,
     whereas if it was in the rule, you had less review and
     approval, and that was the justification for making it part
     of the rule in the first place.
               MR. CHEOK:  That's correct.  And like I said, I
     think industry is backing off a little bit and they feel
     that they would like the flexibility.
               DR. SHACK:  Okay.  So they have the flexibility.
               MR. CHEOK:  And perhaps maybe make a limited form
     of review, what they call a template type review.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  A what kind of review?
               MR. CHEOK:  A template; in other words, an agreed
     upon five-pager or something.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Okay.
               MR. BERGMAN:  The unduly detailed example would be
     the precise makeup of the IDP.  It was spelled out in the
     draft Appendix T included in the ANPR.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  I'm really curious myself about
     the IDP, because we are performing unduly detailed reviews
     of the PRA part and then we are turning over the results to
     the IDP, and they are pretty much free to do whatever they
               I think we are spending our resources reviewing
     something that can't be reviewed because it has some
     quantitative elements in it, whereas the IDP is just the
     deliberative process.
               So at some point in the future, we really have to
     think about it very hard.  Maybe there ought to be some
     general guidelines regarding the conduct of the
     deliberation, because we worry about little things here and
     there, the significance of other -- sensitivity of
     importance measures of various things, and then we're taking
     the results and saying now you guys do what you like with
               Well, it's not like that, but.
               MR. CHEOK:  I think the staff is working with the
     industry on the guidance document and how the IDP should
     deliberate, and hopefully we'll come up with something
     that's acceptable to everybody.
               MR. SHWAIBI:  I think the comments were mostly to
     take the details and put them in the guidance document. 
     They want to be able to -- some of the things that were
     pointed out were as advances in technology occur, we want to
     be able to take advantage of those without having to go back
     to rulemaking.
               And if you lock them in in Appendix T or in the
     rule, that would make it hard to do.  You'd have to go
     through rulemaking, and those were some of the comments on
     the level of detail that needs to be included in the
     appendix and in the rule versus the level of detail that
     could be included in a guidance document or a reg guide.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  I don't understand the second
     bullet.  What is the consensus PRA standard, the ASME and
     the ANS?
               MR. SHWAIBI:  In the proposed --
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Can you move up the microphone a
     little bit?
               MR. SHWAIBI:  I'm sorry.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Good.
               MR. SHWAIBI:  In the proposed Appendix T, I
     believe it was identified that the PRAs would have to meet
     the consensus standard, ASME, ANS, whichever one would be
     available at the time.  It was expected, I guess, that they
     would be available at the time.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  I wonder the people who wrote
     this had seen the standard.
               MR. CHEOK:  The people who wrote this, and you're
     looking at him, has not seen the standard at the time.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Wait a minute.  You are not the
               MR. CHEOK:  You mean the comments.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Yes.
               MR. CHEOK:  All right.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  You're not public.  I mean, it's
     such a high level document, that I don't understand what it
     means, that it should not be accepted as the only method. 
     It's not even a method.
               MR. CHEOK:  I think the intent of the thing is
     maybe we should look at other avenues; for example, the PRA
     certification that's being forwarded to the staff to look at
     and that the ASME standards should not be the only way.
               That is a public comment that we have to address.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  It's really such a high level
     document, that I don't know that it cannot be the only
     acceptable method.  Basically, it tells you to do fault
     trees and event trees.
               Why is it important to minimize the levels of the
     risk significance?
               MR. SHWAIBI:  I'll give you what was provided in
     the comments.  It was suggested that with the different
     levels of risk significance, you would need to come up with
     different treatment requirements for those levels and that
     would just be too complex.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  South Texas didn't. 
     Essentially, they have four categories or something.
               MR. WILLIAMS:  South Texas has four levels of risk
     significance, but really only two types of treatment.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  That's right.
               MR. WILLIAMS:  Because the high safety significant
     and medium safety significant are treated essentially the
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Exactly.  So in essence, they
     have two categories.
               MR. WILLIAMS:  Yes.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  So I don't understand that
     comment either, or there is a concern that there might be
     different --
               MR. SHWAIBI:  Different levels of treatment.
               MR. RUBIN:  I'm Mark Rubin, from the PRA Branch. 
     Just one quick data point.  South Texas, originally, in the
     GQA submittal, you may remember, had an intermediate
     category.  So perhaps the public comment was reflecting
     that.  Allowing too many categories gets too complex, and I
     think South Texas concluded that and they went back to a
     single cut point.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  And what's a functional
               MR. SHWAIBI:  Yes.  In the ANPR, the way that
     categorization was discussed was to bin structures, systems
     or components, and that comment was saying that we ought to
     look at the functions that these components will be
     providing and those functions.
               So in other words, you're dividing -- you're
     taking the different functions of a component and binning
     them into the different bins.  You will be taking the
     different functions that a component will be providing.
               Instead of binning all of the functions of the
     same component in one class, in one safety class or one risk
     class, you could take the different functions of that
     component and bin those functions into the different
               So a component could have functions in different
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  And then you would go with the
     most stringent category or you would have it targeted?
               MR. BERGMAN:  We'd target by function.
               MR. SHWAIBI:  You will address the functions or
     the attributes that give you the function that ended up in
     the different bins.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  I wonder how you would do that?
               MR. BERGMAN:  George, I think this is a lesson
     learned from the maintenance rule.  The maintenance rule was
     written on an SSC basis, as well, but most licensees
     implemented it with a function-based approach, which, after
     we observed it, we concluded it was a very good way to
     tackle the problem.
               In South Texas, in a meeting a couple months ago,
     they pointed out that they've looked at something like
     22,000 components, but those components only fill 500
               So by taking the function-based approach, it does
     appear to simplify the problem somewhat.  They're just
     saying consider allowing us that flexibility to tackle the
     problem using either approach, component-based or
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  I guess it's not clear to me.  I
     thought it would make the process more complicated.  So
     you're not taking -- the way you described it, Mohammed,
     you're taking one component that may have three functions.
               MR. SHWAIBI:  That's correct.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  So you categorize -- now,
     instead of categorizing one component, now you have three
     functions to categorize.
               MR. SHWAIBI:  That's correct.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  So that makes it more complex.
               MR. SHWAIBI:  That's correct.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  We were just told that it's
     actually simpler.
               MR. BERGMAN:  Because there only may be, take the
     example, 500 functions.  You may have 50 components, all
     fulfill the same function.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  I see.
               MR. BERGMAN:  So especially when you get into the
     monitoring aspects, you're monitoring functions, which is
     typically what you look at anyway, are you injecting enough
     water, are you maintaining the bus voltage, and when you
     fail to meet that condition, then you track down to figure
     out what's causing the inability to fulfill the function.
               But when you look at your plan, it's easier to
     look at it from a functional perspective.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  But eventually you would have to
     go to the hardware.
               MR. BERGMAN:  You always have to end up going to
     the hardware.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Because there may be an
     intermediate step that makes it a bit easier.
               MR. BERGMAN:  Right.  As long as stuff works, it's
     easier from a function-based.  When you have a lot of stuff
     breaking, you're ultimately back at components anyway.
               MR. SHWAIBI:  I think if you go back to our
     four-box diagram, one of the comments said that if you have
     a component that ends up in box one or RISC-1, ends up as a
     RISC-1 category, yet it does not need to be environmentally
     qualified because of the functions that it provides, it
     should not have to meet the 50.49 environmental
     qualification criteria.
               You could take the environmental qualification
     parts, and maybe that is lower safety significant.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  But, still, it's new to me, so
     bear with me for a minute.
               I'm categorizing the function of a particular
     component for a function that is needed for the safety of
     the plant.
               MR. BERGMAN:  It's kind of both.  I think the
     example that Mohammed brought up is very good.  You're
     looking at the functions and you'll have RISC-1 functions
     and you say which components fulfill that function and the
     function, though, may only be applicable for, say, seismic
     reasons, but not the rest of EQ.
               So right now, if you do a component, if it has any
     -- if it's safety-related for any reason and it's
     safety-significant for any one reason, the entire SSC and
     all the functions its performed remain subject to all the
     special treatment rules.
               If you go on a function-based approach, you would
     only need to apply those special treatment rules for those
     functions that are both safety-related and
               So it does allow a little bit more flexibility.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  There could be a downside,
     though.  I remember a complaint from South Texas was that if
     a function is in the box RISC-1, then automatically all the
     components supporting that function were RISC-1.  Do we have
     the same problem here?
               MR. BERGMAN:  Oh, you definitely could.  There's a
     balancing between -- it makes your approach to the component
     much more complicated and I think South Texas has concluded
     if it's high for any reason, just throw the whole thing in
     high and just keep dealing with it the way you deal with it
     today rather than trying to pare away at it.
               So it's a comment we've got.  Like you said, how
     it plays out, we don't know.  They're just asking for the
     flexibility.  I don't think even utilities will know till
     they actually get implementation which approach is
     necessarily better.
               MR. REED:  Utilities still may want to do it on
     specific circumstances.  The component that comes to mind
     for the examples, for me anyway, is the RHR pump.  For ECCS,
     it may come out, for that low head pump, maybe come out low
     safety significant, let's say, but for mid-loop, it may come
     out mid or high or for achieving maintain safe shutdown
     condition, it may come out high or medium.
               You would want to treat it appropriately for
     mid-loop or achieving maintain safe shutdown condition,
     those functions as high or medium.
               ECCS now, which is a lot of what the best
     treatments are focused on on that particular component,
     while they're not doing anything for you, you know what I'm
     saying.  So there may be a few where they want to split it
     apart, but like Tom said, it does get complex.
               It simplifies the categorization process, because
     you're categorizing, say, 500 things and then you're mapping
     components into that, if you will, but in the end, when you
     come down to the component and you've got this thing in
     different boxes, in a sense, based on its functions, that
     gets complex and I think that's where South Texas said we're
     simplifying this.
               So if it's got anything that's high, it's high for
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  The example you just gave
     considered two different modes of operation.
               MR. REED:  Yes.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  In which case, the PRA is
     different, the measures are different, everything is
     different.  That's not what I understood by function or
     categorization.  I understood that for the same mode, the
     same importance measures and so on, instead of going
     directly to a component and asking what is its role, in
     general, you are looking at specific functions that it
     supports, and for some of these functions, it may be RISC-1
     and for others it can be something else.
               But for the same mode, if you change the mode of
     operation, then you're changing the importance measure.  So
     it doesn't surprise me that --
               MR. REED:  Yes.  Actually, change mode and
     actually change internal and external events, too.  I did
     the whole thing there.  I think we've got to consider the
     whole gamut, actually.  I don't know.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  They are talking about, in one
     mode, having different functions and categorizing those.  Is
     that the intent of this bullet?
               MR. SHWAIBI:  I'm not clear if the comment is
     actually talking about one mode.  I think the comment was to
     allow the flexibility to do this.  It's not specific as to
     for one mode, you would need to do it.  But I would imagine
     that if you were doing --
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Now, you changed the mode of
     projection.  Why?
               MR. SHWAIBI:  It just went off.  I guess it was a
     screen saver.  It went off.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Okay.  That's better.  Why does
     it say random access?  Shouldn't it be alliatory access? 
     Okay, Mohammed, go on.  You're kind of slow today.
               MR. SHWAIBI:  I guess move on to the last bullet,
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Yes.
               MR. SHWAIBI:  That we need to address the use of
     results from PRAs or tools with different levels of
     conservatism or uncertainty.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  That's a mystery to me what it
     means.  Can you elaborate?
               MR. SHWAIBI:  Yes.  The intent of the comment here
     is that we have different tools that we're using for
     categorizing.  For shutdown, we have certain tools, for
     seismic, for fire, and for internal events, and we don't
     want the conservatisms and uncertainties in one tool to mask
     significance that would come out from another tool.
               We don't want, for example, our shutdown tool to
     drive a component into the low bin when it should be high
     for the internal event scenarios.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  So how would you handle this?
               MR. SHWAIBI:  I think that's already --
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  It sounds like a research
     project, to me.
               MR. CHEOK:  I think in Appendix T, what we say is
     that if you do have a PRA model for fires, for, let's say,
     low power and shutdown, that you take the importance
     measures and you treat them both cumulatively and
     individually, and you need to look at the results, both sets
     of results, and categorize your SSCs based on both sets, not
     just the cumulative results.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  By cumulative, you mean PRA as
               MR. CHEOK:  Consider all the cut sets into one.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  And then you separate out, say,
     the fire and see what happens.
               MR. CHEOK:  Right, and low power and shutdown,
     because they do tend to be maybe more conservative and they
     might skew the results.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Okay, sir.
               MR. SHWAIBI:  Moving on to treatment.  We have
     comments that suggested that any additional treatment for
     safety significant attributes should be determined by the
     licensees and that they should rely on existing licensee
     programs. Those would be in the RISC-1, RISC-2 boxes.
     DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  What happened then to the declaration that
     risk-informing the results may, in fact, lead to additional
               MR. SHWAIBI:  Again, this was the comment.  We're
     still addressing it.  We don't have a response to that yet.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  I think Mr. Riccio would like
     this.  Okay.
               MR. SHWAIBI:  For LSS SSCs, commercial programs
     provide sufficient treatment, was the comment on those.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Somebody asked the question on
     Tuesday, which I will ask you now.
               MR. SHWAIBI:  Yes.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  What is a commercial program?
               MR. SHWAIBI:  We're in the process of trying to
     learn what that is, trying to understand what it is.
               MR. BERGMAN:  We'll talk about that a little bit
               MR. SHWAIBI:  The rulemaking should eliminate
     existing commitments for LSS SSCs, was another set of
     comments.  Any existing commitments would be eliminated.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Now, a matter of terminology
     again.  Low safety significance is what used to be called
     low risk significance.
               MR. SHWAIBI:  Low safety significant SSCs, here,
     what we're basically talking about is the RISC-3 box.  Any
     commitment --
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  I understand that.  I mean the
     terminology.  Safety significance is the former risk
               MR. CHEOK:  Yes.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Yes.  And why the change in
               MR. CHEOK:  I think for a while now we have been
     using low safety significance to be consistent throughout
     the whole agency.  I think we have been using LSS and HHS
     for the last three years or so, since we were implementing
     the maintenance rule.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  So something can be
     safety-related and of low safety significance.
               MR. CHEOK:  Right.
               MR. SHWAIBI:  And, finally, that the risk-informed
     -- a risk-informed change process should be included in the
     new rule.  This is where we recognize 50.59 may not be
     sufficient and we need to include something other than
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Change process?
               MR. SHWAIBI:  Change control process, yes.
               Finally, on pilot programs, we received comments
     that the final rule should not be backfit on pilot plants
     that have reviewed and accepted processes for categorization
     and treatment.
               In addition, we received comments that since STP
     has already demonstrated that they can categorize and
     provide treatment for different types of components, that
     there is no need for other pilot plants to do the same. 
     This is where, in the ANPR, it was suggested that pilot
     plants would need to include passive components, active
     components, mechanical, electrical and all types of
     components, and the commenter was saying that there is
     really no need to do that, since South Texas would have
     demonstrated that.
               If there are no comments, I'll turn it over to Joe
     Williams.  I think he's next.
               MR. WILLIAMS:  I'm Joe Williams.  I'm the project
     manager for the review of the NEI guideline documents.
               What we have here, first of all, is we have three
     guidance documents.  Two of them are actually part of what
     will be a single document.
               First of all, NEI submitted NEI-0002 in April of
     this year.  That provides their peer certification process. 
     They have also provided their categorization guidance for
     option two application.  That was submitted in March of this
     year.  Then in June, they just submitted their draft
     treatment guideline.
               We'll start discussing the review of NEI-0002. 
     We're working with the Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research
     in the review of this document.  We have an overall outline
     that's presented the next couple of slides.  Mike will be
     speaking to most of these points.
               I just want to point out that our intent is to
     provide comments to NEI.  We have talked to them a couple of
     times at public meetings about the categorization, the
     treatment and the peer review.
               We're going to be providing formal comments to NEI
     over the next couple of months and then we'll be working
     with them to develop a final document that hopefully will be
     endorsed in the regulatory guidance that will go forward
     with the proposed rule.
               Mike will now talk about the particulars of the
     review of the NEI-0002.
               MR. CHEOK:  This NEI-0002 is basically the
     industry peer review certification process.  This is the
     process that was, I guess, adopted from the BWR Owner's
     Group process that was presented to the committee probably
     six months ago.
               To review this document, we came up with a task
     plan and like Joe was saying earlier, this is going to be an
     Office of Research and NRR effort.
               The task plan has four tasks in it.  Task one
     basically calls for us to review the process itself, the
     overall process, to see if it meets the general staff
     expectations of what we think a peer review should look
               We also would like to look at the QA requirements
     that are being put on the PRA.  In Reg Guide 1.174, we did
     say that parts of Appendix B should apply to the PRA, since
     it's used to change the licensing basis.  We would like to
     see those parts of Appendix B being implemented.
               In task two, this is the task that our Office of
     Research, I guess led by Mary Drouin, is going to be looking
     at.  This task basically looks at the technical elements of
     the peer review process.
               Again, we are writing a SECY paper, due to the
     Commission probably the middle of next month, that outlines
     our high level expectations of what we would like to see in
     the PRA.
               So the Office of Research is going to use these
     high level expectations as a guidance to look at the peer
     review certification process to see if they meet this
     guidance criterion.
               The next thing they're going to do is they're
     going to look at the sub-tier criteria that's provided by
     NEI-0002. We should note here that in submitting the
     document, NEI has asked that we do not look at sub-tier
     criteria -- I mean, do not review the sub-tier criteria. 
     They would just provide it for information.
               The staff had come to the conclusion that we do
     need to look at the sub-tier criteria because this is the
     basis for which the peer reviewers are going to make the
     decisions whether something is graded with one, two, three
     or four.
               So we have written a letter back to NEI to state
     that, yes, we will look at your certification process, but
     we will have to look at them in concert with the sub-tier
               So part of task two here is for the Office of
     Research to look at this sub-tier criteria and, in a sense,
     compare it to existing and available documents, the ASME
     standards being one of them, to see how consistent they are. 
     That's the first task in this sub-task.
               And then if there are inconsistencies, determine
     if these inconsistencies will affect applications in option
               Task three is then actually to look at what we
     actually want to do in option two.  Remember, NEI has asked
     us to review the certification process in conjunction, in
     light of applications to option two.
               So what task three does is that we need to look at
     what the requirements of option two are.  In other words,
     what's the role of PRA in option two and how are we going to
     use the results of a PRA in option two; how are things like
     defense-in-depth, safety margins, and the other expert panel
     type issues going to affect the results of the PRA.
               DR. SHACK:  Mike, I as recall, I didn't think you
     assigned an overall grade to a PRA.  Wasn't it sort of
     graded on an element by element basis?  Do we take an
     average or something?
               MR. CHEOK:  No.  You are actually correct.  We do
     give a grade to the elements themselves and NEI-0002 is very
     clear in saying that we do not assign an overall grade to a
               DR. SHACK:  Then what does task two mean then? 
     Somehow it sounds as though there's something like the grade
     three PRA, grade three PRA is the overall beast.
               MR. CHEOK:  I think I'll go to that a little bit. 
     Basically, what happens is NEI has asked us to look at this
     certification process with respect to option two and since
     they have four grades, the grade that corresponds to what
     the PRA should be to be good enough for option two is the
     grade three PRA.
               So basically you're looking at the sub-tier
     criteria for grade three to see if these sub-tier criteria
     are what we think is needed to be applied for each element
     for option two.
               DR. SHACK:  Suppose he comes out with grade three
     in X attributes and grade two in Z attributes.
               MR. CHEOK:  And I think we will discuss this in
     the next slide, but basically what happens is -- one of our
     comments to them is, look, you have to come up with a
     certain level of conformance in each element and then if you
     do not conform, we would like to know why you don't conform
     and document that, so that your expert panel will know why
     you don't conform and how you can get around this, what we
     call the tradeoffs to apply to option two.
               But this thing has to be documented well enough
     for your expert panel to know and for the staff reviewer to
     know that you have used these tradeoffs correctly.
               In a sense, I'm not -- I hear this committee
     discussing the grading levels yesterday for the ASME
     standards, and the more I listen to the discussion, the more
     I'm thinking the ASME is talking themselves out of having
     different grades, because, in a sense, they are defining a
     standard for grade four, for example.
               And you come in and say, hey, look, for this
     application, I may not meet the standards, but I do not meet
     them because, here's my reasons, and there could be more
     bullets for grade one and maybe less bullets for grade two.
               But I think when you apply something, you need to
     know those bullets anyway and you need to know how to get
     around those bullets or those bullets have to be fixed in an
     update of the PRA.
               So in essence, you're really comparing yourself to
     a standard, which is the grade four standard, and for each
     application, you need to know how you -- the tradeoffs are
     probably different for each application.
               So in that sense, I'm not sure.
               DR. SHACK:  It's a useful tool for
               MR. CHEOK:  That's right, that's right.
               DR. SHACK:  I can see where my PRA has had
     shortcomings.  It's not category one, two or three or grade
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Use your mic.
               DR. SHACK:  He's going to have to come in, as you
     say, and defend it.
               MR. CHEOK:  Right.
               DR. SHACK:  He'd be better off to go to grade four
     or category three and be done with it.
               MR. CHEOK:  Right.  In essence, a grade two is I'm
     conforming to the standards, but to a less extent than grade
     three is.  And how I don't conform to it, I have to document
     anyway, because I need to know why it doesn't conform, not
     just that it's a grade two.
               A grade two by itself doesn't mean anything to me
     and a grade three doesn't mean anything to me.
               I like to know why it's a grade three.  So in that
     sense, putting the different grades out there doesn't really
     make that much sense.
               DR. SHACK:  Except for a self-assessment tool or
     to tell you how to fix it up.
               MR. CHEOK:  So basically, here in task three, like
     we were talking earlier, we would like to understand why
     something is not up to par and if there are any compensatory
     measures or tradeoffs that can be done; for example,
     sensitivity studies or more defense-in-depth to get around
     this one element that's not up to par, so to speak.
               And the last task, we are trying to define what
     elements of the peer review process are important enough
     that it needs to be submitted to the staff and what elements
     are important enough to be kept on-site for staff
     inspection, so to assure us that this process has been
     carried out correctly.
               Here, we met with NEI on Tuesday, two days ago,
     and our comments on NEI-0002, these are the high level
     initial comments, basically are summarized in these four
               We said that we need sub-tier criteria to review
     the certification document.
               MR. WILLIAMS:  If I may.  One thing I want to
     point out, too.  It's not just that the sub-tier criteria
     are integral, but also that we received only the BWR
     sub-tier criteria.  We also need the sub-tier criteria for
     the pressurized water reactors, as well.
               MR. CHEOK:  We said that it's important for this
     process to document all the findings very well.  It's in
     these findings that make the peer review process itself
               For example, I'll give an example.  For grade
     three, there's a lot of "should's" in there.  The "shalls"
     go in grade four, and the "mays" go in grade two.
               If you look at the definition of a "should," it is
     you shall either have met the requirements or you have good
     documented reasons why you didn't meet the requirements.
               I think that the licensee, PRA analysts, the
     expert panel, as well as the staff, need to know what
     "should" means in each of these cases.  Is it because they
     met the element or is it because they had something that --
     some documentation that says they don't have to meet this
               This documentation or justification might actually
     affect the application and if that's the case, I think we
     should have it ready for the expert panel to review and act
               Keep in mind that the certification process could
     have been done two years ago with no application in mind. 
     So I think good documentation of this process is essential.
               The third bullet here is how applicable are
     previous peer reviews.  In other words, the majority of BWRs
     have already been peer-reviewed.  A lot of the PWRs are
     being reviewed currently.
               How do we apply the results of past peer reviews? 
     I mean, the sub-tier criteria were not put down on paper
     until probably recently.  What do we do with cases like
     that?  What happens if the staff finds some discrepancies
     and would like to add the staff guidance into the guidance
     document?  What do you do with plants that have already been
               So that's a topic that we need to discuss with
               Independent decision-making panel, again, I think
     Dr. Apostolakis pointed this out earlier, we are saying that
     perhaps the PRA doesn't have to be as good as our standards. 
     Our expert panel can take care of this.
               I think we need to have good guidance to the
     expert panel as to how they can take care of this.
               Categorization.  NEI submitted this document to us
     in March and in the document they talked about PRA scope and
     quality.  It was at that meeting that actually it was
     suggested that they submit to us NEI-0002 to address the
     quality issue.
               As far as the scope issue is concerned, they are
     proposing that an external events PRA and a low power
     shutdown PRA is not necessary for this process, and in
     Appendix T, the staff actually basically said the same
               NEI has proposed processes where you can use 91-06
     criteria that's for risk management and shutdown
     configurations and how you can use analyses and the seismic
     margin analyses in light of PRA and how we can categorize
     components using those kinds of analyses.    
               The staff is looking at those proposals and,
     again, I think it comes down to the role of the expert
               It's my personal feeling that if you are going to
     not do a  PRA, you should be a little bit more conservative
     in your assessment of categories.
               You should encourage the use of PRAs and they
     should be able to tell you the more correct results.
               So, again, this comes to how we define the role of
     the expert panel.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Mike, as I recall, the South
     Texas project categorized something like 21,000 SSCs,
     roughly.  And a typical number of SSCs that appear in a good
     PRA is on the order of maybe 1,200.  That's the number.
               MR. CHEOK:  The number of events, the basic events
     in a database normally is 1,200, 2,000, something like that. 
     That could be less SSCs even, because --
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Less SSCs.
               MR. CHEOK:  Yes.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  The point is that it's 20,000
     versus 1,200, 1,500, 1,000, that kind of number.
               MR. CHEOK:  Right.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Which means that you had almost
     20,000 SSCs that were categorized without the PRA.
               MR. CHEOK:  Correct.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Are you familiar with the
     process that they followed to do this?  We had a short
     presentation here once.
               MR. CHEOK:  I'm not totally familiar with what
     South Texas did, but what Appendix T calls for basically is
     to first map the SSCs on to the PRA, if you can; in other
     words, to implicitly model SSCs.
               So instead of the 2,000, you might actually have
     6,000, the piping, the instrumentation that's dependent on
     the operators, the tanks.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Yes.  So this is a variation, if
     you will, of the risk-informed ISI approach, the
     Westinghouse surrogate component.
               MR. CHEOK:  In a sense it is, yes.
               MR. WILLIAMS:  If I may, with regard to the South
     Texas, I know that part of that process is that they have
     several critical questions that they ask about these non-PRA
     components, if you will, such as whether or not they're
     involved in the emergency operating procedures or not.
               They assign a numerical rank from essentially zero
     to five rank.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Yes.
               MR. WILLIAMS:  According to some criteria, and
     then they have some weighting.  Then they have rules that
     they've applied that according to the sum of all those ranks
     for the individual questions and the weights, that they then
     will bin those SSCs according to where they fall out of that
     numerical system.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  So I think -- I mean, I fully
     agree with you that this sounds, and it is, a structured
     process, but I'm not sure that, as a community, we have
     really understood what the process is and what it means to
     do certain things.
               For example, do these different constructed scales
     they use, do they represent independent attributes, mutually
     exclusive attributes, do they have to be independent, is
     there a risk of double counting perhaps.
               You know, all these things -- we're getting now
     into the structure of deliberative processes, which is not a
     new field for some community, but that community is not part
     of our community.
               So I think since they are making these important
     decisions, I think we should look at this process a little
     bit more carefully.  These may turn out to be great, that's
     fine, I'm not saying there are problems with it.  In fact, I
     was very pleasantly surprised when I heard South Texas
     presented and showing that they actually tried very hard to
     put some structure into the process.
               MR. CHEOK:  We do have some experience with South
     Texas and we do have experience with ISI and IST, with the
     pilots in there.  So we do have some kind of experience with
     how expert panels do work, but I think we still need to nail
     down exactly how the process should go.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Do you have any document that
     describes what was actually done?  Because I haven't really
     seen it.  Besides the presentation, I'm not familiar that we
     have anything else.
               MR. WILLIAMS:  For South Texas?
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Yes, or anybody who has used --
               MR. WILLIAMS:  Certainly we have the submittals
     that South Texas has made to date.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  It's just the results of the
     process itself.
               MR. WILLIAMS:  It's the process itself.  They
     described the process in some --
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Can you give an example or two?
               MR. WILLIAMS:  I believe so, yes, because we have
     copies of some of the risk significance basis determination
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Is that a huge document?
               MR. WILLIAMS:  The risk significance determination
     document, that's pretty large.  The documents involving the
     description of the processes, those are manageable.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  May you can coordinate it with
     Mr. Markley here.
               MR. WILLIAMS:  We can take care of that.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  And see if part-time people can
     review it in a reasonable amount of time.
               MR. CHEOK:  I'll keep going through this bullets
     quickly.  The second bullet basically says the role of
     importance analysis can be used in sensitivity studies to
     bound an increase in risk, or do we just depend on the
     importance matrix, such as Fussel-Veseley and RAW.
               The next bullet there is, again, the expert panel,
     what role it plays, and we have discussed that quite a bit
     already.  The fourth bullet there is how we treat low safety
     significant safety-related components, and I think Joe will
     talk about that in later slides.
               The last bullet there is what role should
     monitoring and feedback play in this whole process, how does
     this affect the PRA updates and how does this affect the
     whole process in general.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Now, you know that we had this
     presentation from Palisades on top event prevention
     methodology.  Is that left out because the authors of the
     NEI-0002 were not aware of it, as most people are not, or
     because they decided they would go with Fussel-Veseley and
               MR. CHEOK:  I think the Fussel-Veseley and RAW is
     something that's known to everybody.  Everyone has the
     capability of doing it.  So that's the way that NEI chose to
               The top event prevention is another acceptable
     method to do this.  I think they have at least one licensee,
     maybe two or three others might follow, but on a generic
     sense, they do not have enough -- I guess we can call it
     support for that methodology.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  But, again, though, they don't
     have enough support because people have studied it and they
     decided not to support it or because it's just brand new and
     they are not really familiar with it?
               MR. CHEOK:  I believe they are probably somewhat
     familiar with it.  They just chose to go with the method
     that they already know how to do and they think will work.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Do they allow other methods to
     be used?
               MR. CHEOK:  I think the documentation is such that
     they would be flexible to allow any other methodology, and
     the staff, in fact, say you can actually submit a top event
     prevention, if you like.  There's nothing to stop them from
     doing that.  We will just have to review it on its own
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Well, at some point, though, we
     have to understand what the differences are.  Are we getting
     more or less or are you doing one methodology versus the
               MR. CHEOK:  We have an e-mail, I guess, we have
     communicated with Palisades on what they should be doing
     about the top event prevention methodology.  They want to
     apply it to IST.
               We haven't gotten back to them yet, but basically
     what we're going to tell them is that, sure, go ahead and
     submit it, we would like to find out more about it, and find
     out how applicable it is to option two and the rest of the
     stuff we're doing.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Okay.  So you are in the process
     then of examining further that methodology.
               MR. CHEOK:  That's correct.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Okay.
               MR. WILLIAMS:  We will now talk about some of the
     feedback we've given to the industry regarding treatment
     guidelines.  Most of this discussion was provided to NEI and
     other industry stakeholders on Tuesday.
               The first bullet deals with the definition of
     commercial practices.  One of the predominant issues here is
     that commercial practices covers a very wide range of
               Consider, for example, the distinction between a
     Rolls Royce and Yugo.  Both of those are commercial
     vehicles.  They're presumably for the same end, but clearly
     much different in their application.
               The staff is interested in basically defining the
     set of commercial practices that provides an adequate
     assurance of functionality, both in the context of the
     preservation of the design basis for the components that are
     categorized in the RISC-3 area, and also when those
     commercial practices are applied for the, for lack of a
     better term, severe accident attributes in the RISC-1 and 2
               The NEI document, NEI-0002, has provided a useful
     outline of how they propose to proceed in this area, but the
     staff is going to need additional details before we can
     complete our review.
               The next bullet deals with the preservation of the
     design basis.  Fundamentally, that's, under option two, the
     existing deterministic design basis is supposed to be
     preserved.  It cannot be changed by the rule itself.  If the
     licensee chooses to do that, they'd have to choose another
     regulatory mechanism.
               So the need to identify and provide adequate
     protection of those design basis attributes is an inherent
     part of the process.
               The next bullet deals with change control.  The
     issue here is that 10 CFR 50.59 is focused exclusively on
     the preservation of the deterministic licensing basis.  So
     it's not an adequate tool to address facility changes that
     might affect severe accident performance.
               For example, a pressurizer PORV could play an
     important role in a facility risk profile by providing the
     capability for feed-and-bleed, the once-through core cooling
               If a licensee chose to somehow diminish that
     capability, the existing 50.59 might fully allow the
     licensee to proceed and make that change, because it is not
     a design basis event.
               However, it could have a very significant effect
     upon the facility's risk profile.
               NEI has indicated that they agree with the staff
     on the need to address these severe accident attributes and
     has mentioned that in their guideline documents on
     treatment.  However, again, the staff is going to need some
     additional details.  We have a lot of work to do before we
     can actually define the process in the way that it will be
     applied by the industry.
               The predominant concern, at least in my mind, is
     that there's some level at which, similar to 50.59, at which
     prior staff review would be required before a facility
     change could be made.  We want to strike a balance between
     the facility's ability, the licensee's ability to make
     reasonable changes to their facility and to manage their own
     risk profile, but also recognize that there is some
     threshold that they could reach, hopefully rarely, that we
     would want to be engaged prior to those changes being made.
               The next bullet, dealing with the adequate
     assurance of RISC-2 capability.  The fundamental issue here,
     in my mind, deals with performance monitoring.  Basically,
     performance monitoring under normal operating conditions may
     not be relevant to the severe accident conditions that might
     be seen.
               So how will you actually be able to meaningfully
     monitor these components as they normally operate and say
     that they derive information that's actually meaningful for
     their usage in a severe accident environment.
               Also, I will point out that NEI has proposed that
     we divide the RISC-2 category into two subcategories. 
     Basically, one is those non-safety-related SSCs that are
     subject to some other regulatory treatment, such as fire
     protection components or station blackout components, and
     also one category where there's no existing special
     treatment, no existing regulatory requirements for special
               So this has led to a distinction between the SSCs
     in the RISC-2 box.
               Finally, with regard to the adequate assurance of
     RISC-3 functionality, again, we have the other side of the
     coin with regard to performance monitoring.  Performance
     monitoring, again, during normal operating conditions may
     not provide meaningful information regarding design basis
               So a program that exclusively relies upon, say,
     for example, the maintenance rule, may not, in and of
     itself, be sufficient, may require some other attributes. 
     You may have to rely upon other attributes of a commercial
     program or other regulatory controls to provide the adequate
     level of assurance for the protection of those design basis
               Are there any questions?
               This slide outlines how we're proceeding with our
     review.  Presently, the risk-informed Part 50 core team has
     been tasked with developing guidelines for the review of the
     South Texas exemption.  We will be complete with that task
     within the next few weeks.
               Following on from that, we're going to develop
     acceptance criteria for the review of option two treatment. 
     I anticipate that this will be an evolution from the South
     Texas guidance and will be the basis for our review of the
     generic industry guidance.
               This means that the staff needs to have a good
     understanding of how well the South Texas and NEI proposals
     conform to one another.  We've had a presentation both by
     South Texas and by NEI addressing this topic.  There seems
     to be, at least on first blush, a good level of agreement
     between the proposals.
               South Texas clearly did not apply the NEI
     guideline.  It didn't exist at that time.  But they have
     participated with NEI in development of their guidance and
     largely they conform to one another in terms of their
               This last slide provides the risk-informed Part 50
     option two schedule, as it stands at this point.  I will
     point out this is a tentative schedule that we recently set
     up for management review, and some of the assumptions that
     are inherent here are still being refined.
               If you'll note, for example, we say that in
     January 2001, the pilot program would be initiated. 
     However, in our meeting with NEI on Tuesday, we had some
     indication that pilot activities might begin much sooner
     than that, perhaps this September.
               So some of these schedule assumptions and the
     overall timeline here is subject to change as we proceed.
               At this point in time, however, we're projecting
     that we would complete the final rulemaking to the
     Commission by the end of 2002.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Do you know who the pilot plants
     will be?
               MR. WILLIAMS:  We don't have specific information
     at this point.  We know that the first out-of-the-box will
     probably be some boiling water reactors.  I could speculate,
     but that would be all it would be at this point.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  And where does the South Texas
     exemption request fit into this?
               MR. WILLIAMS:  The South Texas review, right now,
     we're anticipating that that will be completely by April of
     next year.  I'll point out we've characterized the South
     Texas review as a prototype versus a pilot, basically as a
     demonstration of the concept.
               Since they don't conform or did not develop their
     process in full conformance with the NEI guidance and
     hopefully what will ultimately go into the regulatory
     guidance, we couldn't really call them a pilot.  They do
     play a significant, but distinct role in the effort.
               I believe that concludes our presentation.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  This concludes the whole thing? 
     You want us to brief the Commission in September on what
     you've got here?
               MR. WILLIAMS:  I guess so.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Fine.  Any comments or questions
     from the members?  You will expect a letter from us at some
               MR. BERGMAN:  We considered this informational
     briefing.  Of course, if you want us to provide something,
     we're certainly happy to get it.
               We are coming back to you, though, at the -- I
     think it's the September meeting, but it's August 30th,
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Okay.
               MR. BERGMAN:  Right.  And at that point, we'll
     have a full Commission paper for you that addresses the ANPR
     comments and other related issues and we'll certainly want a
     letter from you at that point.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  In September.
               MR. BERGMAN:  Right.  I think our Commission
     briefing is going to be the week of the 18th of September.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  I don't think there's time to
     have another subcommittee meeting.  August is a month.  But
     we don't need a subcommittee meeting before the presentation
     to the full committee.
               MR. BERGMAN:  I don't think so.  I mean, that's up
     to you, but I don't think so.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Okay.  Any other comments from
     members of the public, NRC staff?  Thank you very much. 
     Very informative.
               MR. WILLIAMS:  Thank you, sir.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Appreciate it.  Now, the next
     item on the agenda is Mr. Christie's presentation, which is
     scheduled to start at 10:30, and I'm advised that I have to
     stick to that schedule.
               So we will recess for 50 minutes.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  We are back in session.  Mr. Bob
     Christie, the floor is yours.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  My name is Bob Christie.  I am the
     owner of a firm in Knoxville, Tennessee, called Performance
     Technology.  I have been in the commercial electric power
     business, nuclear, for about 26 and a half years or so.  The
     first 15 and a half years was as an employee of the
     Tennessee Valley Authority.
               The last 11 years, I've been a consultant, not
     only for the nuclear business, but also for other places,
     such as the railroads and that, basically doing risk and
     reliability evaluation.
               I am here today to talk about a petition for
     rulemaking which was filed last year and to describe it and
     hopefully answer your questions about it.
               I have been asked and requested by a staff member
     of the Nuclear Energy Institute to clarify completely that
     the views that I express today are not endorsed by the
     Nuclear Energy Institute.
               So with that, I'd like to start.
               DR. KRESS:  Is there any particular reason that
     they haven't endorsed this?
               MR. CHRISTIE:  I have no idea.  You'd have to ask
     them.  This petition is a petition that does not come from
     the Nuclear Energy Institute and my views and the views that
     I express today, which I explained to you the last time when
     I talked to you, and I think it was March 1st, whatever it
     was, are the views of myself and a bunch of other people who
     have been following this and working this area for many
               They asked me to make that statement, I made the
               The agenda today, I'd like to start by talking
     about a letter I sent to Dr. Tom King on May the 30th.  I
     think I'll skip the introduction and background.  We'll go
     back to it if we have time at the end.  So really, I'd kind
     of like to do A, C, D, E, F, and then go back and do B, if
     we have time, and then summarize at the end.
               DR. KRESS:  What is the status of the petition? 
     Has it been --
               MR. CHRISTIE:  We'll talk about that.
               DR. KRESS:  You're going to talk about that.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  We'll talk about that in full
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  I wouldn't skip the background
     completely, though.  I think you should --
               DR. KRESS:  You're going to talk about SONGS and
     the background.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Okay.  We'll go over the background
     then, quick.  The thing that's really amazing to me is I
     believe that we're very, very close to having a rule that's
     acceptable to everyone.  We've had many meetings.
               I guess the first public workshop was back last
     September.  Then we had another public workshop in February,
     and then we had a -- I think it was called a public meeting,
     not a public workshop, we had a public meeting in May. 
     We've also had other interactions and so on.
               But at the May meeting, there were six criteria
     that the Nuclear Regulatory Commission people were using to
     make decisions with respect to 10 CFR 50.44.  And so in the
     meeting on May the 17th, I think we got pretty good
     agreement and pretty good definition of where we didn't have
               So I'd like to tell you that today.  I think we're
     pretty close.  And let's go over what we discussed on May
     the 17th.
               The first one has to do with the hydrogen
     monitoring, measuring the hydrogen monitoring concentration. 
     That's their slide 23.  And I think we have come to
     agreement that the hydrogen monitoring system can be
     commercial grade.  It no longer has to be safety grade,
     safety-related, with all the bells and whistles.  That was
     my interpretation of what happened.
               Where we disagreed is, or I think we disagreed,
     that the staff of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission still
     believes that there should be requirements, quote, for the
     long term for hydrogen monitoring and while these
     requirements would allow you to be commercial grade, there
     are still going to be requirements and you will still have
     to have inspection and so on.
               My position and the position of the others that
     I've worked with on this is basically this hydrogen
     monitoring is not safety-significant, it is not a primary
     indicator that is used for anything but to turn on the
     hydrogen control systems, which are the recombiners and the
     purge systems, and if we make the recombiners and the purge
     systems non-safety-related and don't have requirements, then
     fine, the hydrogen monitoring is also not safety-significant
     and it would be put in a non-safety-significant category,
     turned over to the utilities, and the utilities would be
     responsible for it.
               Not that they're going to immediately go out and
     dump or anything like that.  They are just the ones that are
     now making the decisions.
               DR. KRESS:  When you say not safety-significant,
     that means it has insignificant impact on CDF and LERF.  Is
     that what you mean by that?
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Insignificant impact on anything.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Have you subjected these to the
     Ross' adoption two that he is proposing?
               MR. CHRISTIE:  In option two, all this stuff isn't
     even in the PRA, doesn't get -- this is non-safety -- if you
     did an option two on this, this is all
     non-safety-significant.  It's below the line.
               DR. BONACA:  Bob, this is the question I have.  I
     remember when we did review, first of all, an application by
     the Westinghouse Owner's Group for elimination of the PASS
     system or of certain portions of the PASS system.
               I remember that they put the burden on the
     hydrogen monitoring system to perform some function in
     support of the emergency actions level, because --
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Severe accident management
               DR. BONACA:  So I don't remember the exact
     details, but I remember that they committed to maintain the
     hydrogen monitoring for a specific function in the severe
     accident management guidelines.
               Now, when San Onofre came with the proposal to
     eliminate the hydrogen monitoring system, they took it back
     at some point, because they said that this had to go with
     the same option on severe accident management provided by
     Westinghouse and for that, they needed a monitoring system.
               Could you address that point?
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Okay.  Let me explain what happened
     with the severe accident -- well, let me explain what
     happened with San Onofre.  San Onofre went in with a 50.12
     exemption request, which you people finally approved, but in
     the course of negotiations with that, San Onofre basically
     withdrew the application for the hydrogen monitoring to be
     declared non-safety.
               They put it on hold.  They didn't say it wasn't
     non-safety.  They didn't say it was non-safety.  They just
     put it on hold and they received the approval from the staff
     of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for the recombiners and
     the purge to be non-safety and to pass onto the purview of
     the utility only.
               Their position still was it was not
     safety-significant, it was not safety-related, and they just
     put it on hold.  The Westinghouse Owner's Group, and I
     haven't been following it for PASS very much, but to the
     best of my knowledge, what the Westinghouse Owner's Group
     have said, and I believe there was a change in the middle of
     their submittal.
               They started out with the hydrogen monitoring as
     being safety-related and they changed it to be
     non-safety-related. It's going to serve a function in the
     severe accident management guidelines which are not
     safety-related pieces of equipment and you don't have to
     have safety-related pieces of equipment to do it.
               DR. BONACA:  I understand.  I'm only saying that I
     know the reason why they left it in, however, they did not
     ask for exemption on that system, was because -- I asked the
     question specifically and they answered that they, yes,
     would want to go with the WOG for the SAMG and because of
     that, they withdrew the monitoring system from the
               So I think there was a logic behind the reason why
     it stayed there yet and I want you to keep it in mind as you
     go forth with this.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  And I haven't followed the
     Westinghouse Owner's Group post-accident sampling system
     that closely, but I have been told that the post-accident
     sampling system WOG submittal changed the requirement for
     the hydrogen monitorings in the middle of the application to
     move the hydrogen monitoring from safety-related to
     non-safety-related and that's where it is today.
               It was approved on the basis of non-safety.
               MR. SNODDERLY:  Excuse me.  Dr. Bonaca, my name is
     Mike Snodderly.  I did the San Onofre hydrogen exemption and
     I also did the review for the Westinghouse Owner's Group
     PASS sampling.      
               From my perspective, I believe that if you look at
     the exemption request for the PASS, it did credit the
     continuous hydrogen monitors, the safety-related continuous
     hydrogen monitors, as the way to measure hydrogen and to
     support core damage assessment, the Westinghouse Owner's
     core damage assessment guidelines.
               Also, if you look at Regulation 50.47(b)(9) for an
     effective emergency plan, most licensees meet that with Reg
     Guide 1.101, Revision 3, which endorsed an NEI guideline. 
     But that states that a general emergency is a loss of any
     two barriers and potential loss of a third barrier.
               Potential loss of a third barrier includes whether
     an explosive mixture exists inside containment and most
     licensees use the hydrogen monitors for that determination.
               So just to support and refresh what had happened.
               DR. BONACA:  Okay.  I didn't have enough detail,
     and you have provided that.  Okay.  But I remember there was
     a connection.  It wasn't in this part of the rule.  It was,
     however, in the severe accident maintenance.
               Now, whether your requirements may be to implement
     severe accident management steps and if they are part of the
     law, I don't know.
               MR. SNODDERLY:  The severe accident management
     guidelines are a voluntary initiative and as Mr. Christie
     points out, yes, we agree that the hydrogen monitors are not
     needed to actuate any of the mitigative features in 50.44,
     the hydrogen recombiners, the igniters, those types of
               So that it could be eliminated from 50.44, the
     requirement of hydrogen monitoring.  But there still is a
     requirement in NUREG-0737, the post-TMI requirements, that
     you have hydrogen monitoring, and, also, in how licensees
     have met this 50.47 requirement through the appropriate reg
               So as we go through this process, we've got to
     keep that in mind and we'll have to go back and reconsider
     those types of situations, but I believe the staff still
     believes that hydrogen monitoring, although you may not have
     to do it with safety-related continuous monitors that are
     currently installed, they still would be needed for the core
     damage assessment and EP.
               DR. BONACA:  Thank you.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  And I think that's a pretty clear
     description of where the differences are between the
     position we have and what the staff has.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Again, I asked you about option
     two and you said it's below.  How could it be below?  If
     there is a box there that says non-safety-related,
     non-safety-significant, so this must belong there.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  In the option two, if you didn't
     change the rule, this would go into RISC-3.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Which is?
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Non-safety-significant, but
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Okay.
               DR. KRESS:  Because it's already designated.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  It's already.  But if the rule, the
     petition for rulemaking is approved, that's the whole
     purpose, first -- and, see, we're doing box two and -- we're
     doing option two and three all at once with hydrogen.  Okay.
               We're moving it from safety-related, box one, to
     box four, by this rulemaking.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Right.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  So, again, that's the situation as
     far as measuring the hydrogen concentration.
               MR. SNODDERLY:  Excuse me.  Dr. Apostolakis, I
     just wanted to address one thing on your point.  If you just
     use option two and the criteria of CDF and LERF, yes, I
     agree with Bob Christie, it's going to be in the group
               One thing I think we all need to keep in mind,
     though, is those other regulations, such as 50.47 and EP,
     aren't really addressed as one of the criteria for
     determining whether something is in box one or box three.
               So I think that that's -- and sometimes in the
     expert panel, that's considered and sometimes it's not.
               Currently, the way the hydrogen monitors and all
     the monitors that are required safety meet Appendix E, the
     emergency response data system.  All those things currently
     would be in the low safety, no risk significance.
               I think that's one issue that we're -- I don't
     think we're disagreeing on the categorization, but how do we
     treat that, because there is this acknowledgement that it is
     needed for those things.
               DR. KRESS:  Would that be considered a
     defense-in-depth requirement?
               MR. SNODDERLY:  I believe so, Dr. Kress, but I
     think what we're -- the issue, I think, that's being brought
     up here is that, yes, if you just apply the criteria of CDF
     and LEF, yes, this stuff clearly is not needed to meet that,
     falls out, but do we maybe consider another criteria or are
     we adequately addressing it through the special -- you know,
     how is it going to be treated.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Let's go on.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Okay.  For the next, which is the
     mixed containment atmospheres, again, as far as we're
     concerned, basically, mixing the containment atmosphere
     comes because you have systems for containment heat removal,
     either fans and coolers or sprays, some plants have both,
     and these systems we're not proposing any change at all in.
               We're still going to be mixing atmosphere.  The
     proposed rule doesn't change that.  Nothing changes that,
     and we're in complete agreement on that.
               The next one is the control of the post-LOCA
     combustible gases.  The Nuclear Regulatory Commission, on
     their slide 25, says remove post-LOCA hydrogen control from
     50.44.  Complete agreement, we remove it from 50.44.
               On the reactor coolant system high point vents,
     again, complete agreement.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Either you don't use them at all
     or --
               MR. CHRISTIE:  All right.  I guess this is slide
     26, which is the reactor coolant system high point vents. 
     Again, we got complete agreement.  We're going to keep all
     the stuff in for the reactor coolant system high point
     On the slide 27, which is the inert, the MARK 1's and MARK 2
     containments, again, complete agreement.  We're not going to
     change -- no change.  We're going to keep them inert.
               The last one, and we should spend a little time on
     this one --
               DR. KRESS:  Where will I find that slide?
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Slide 28.
               MR. MARKLEY:  Page four.
               DR. KRESS:  Page four.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Page four.  It comes as an
     attachment --
               DR. KRESS:  No, I mean the real slide that he's
     talking about.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  That comes as the attachment to the
     May 30th letter from me to Dr. King.
               DR. KRESS:  Okay.  I've got that here somewhere.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  No, no, no.  He means this.  I
     think what Dr. Kress means is the actual slide 28.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Right.  It comes in the attachment. 
     You got a letter from myself to Dr. King dated May the 30th
     and you have all the slides that we're talking about here.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Right.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Okay.  This is a very -- again,
     it's a tough slide to read.  We had a very difficult time
     with it on May the 17th.  It's unclear.  And really, as far
     as we could tell, it busts into two pieces.
     One had a requirement for all plants, and that's to
     demonstrate the containment will withstand both short and
     long term a specified source, so and so, and then they had
     one for MARK 3's and the ice condensers, which is do
     something with the MARK 3's and the ice condensers for the
     igniters during station blackout.
               What we have said, and we'll talk about this in a
     minute, is for the large dry containments, we have a
     requirement now, we've added a requirement to address the
     containment capability during severe accidents.
               And I don't know whether the staff of the Nuclear
     Regulatory Commission agrees with that one.  It's very
     unclear what this one was.
               The a second part, and this is the one that I
     think we need a lot of discussion on, because it got brought
     up again in the Commissioners' briefing last week.
               The staff of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission
     believed that the igniters should be operable during station
     blackout.  Myself and the others do not understand this
     requirement at all, so let me explain what we see for
     station blackout and the igniters for the MARK 3's and the
     ice condensers, which are the ones that have the igniters.
               If you have a station blackout, you have a loss of
     all AC power, it becomes basically a timing problem.  And
     let's take the boilers first.  Let's take the MARK 3
               If you lose all the AC power and your offset power
     is lost and your emergency diesel generators are lost, what
     you boil down to is you will have the turbine-driven reactor
     core isolation cooling.  That will supply water to the
     reactor vessel.
               You will also have the control systems that are DC
     powered coming off the batteries and you will also have the
     control systems that are AC powered that come off the
     inverters, which are powered by the batteries.  This is what
     you're down to.
               At this point in time, and this will go on,
     depending on whether it's a four-hour plant in battery life
     or an eight-hour plant in battery life, it just depends on
     how much battery you have, you will basically not see any
     core damage, we think.
               I mean, basically, your RCSI, reactor core
     isolation cooling system is supplying water, the core is
     covered.  You're not removing any heat from the containment,
     which is kind of worrisome, but you can control it, and, if
     that works, everything is fine.
               DR. KRESS:  You're saying the contribution of that
     station blackout sequence to core damage frequency is very
               MR. CHRISTIE:  That's an automatic, yes.  To get
     to the point where you have a loss of off-site power and the
     failure of all your emergency systems on-site.
               DR. KRESS:  You've got to have a lot of things
     happen. So that particular sequence --
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Right, that sequence --
               DR. KRESS:  -- for those plants don't add much to
     core damage frequency.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  To get to that point, we're talking
     a very low number on initiating events, plus those
     subsequent -- you know, the initiating event is loss of
     off-site power and the subsequent event is a loss of all
     your emergencies.  That's a very low probability event.
               On top of that now, you have the situation where
     you're keeping the core cooled with the RCSI and you have
     control because you've got your DC and your AC power
               And this goes on for approximately four hours.  At
     the end of four hours, and let us ask yourself what role do
     the igniters play during this time.  Why would you want to
     have them operable?
               DR. KRESS:  If they were operable, they might
     preclude --
               MR. CHRISTIE:  First off, how would you put them
     operable?  They require electrical power.
               DR. KRESS:  That's another question.  But if you
     did go into core damage, which you say --
               MR. CHRISTIE:  No, we're not into core damage yet.
               DR. KRESS:  Then they have no purpose.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Right, exactly.
               DR. KRESS:  But if they did go into core damage,
     then they may preclude an early failure of the containment.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Wait a minute.  Wait a minute.  Now
     we're going down -- and now we're four hours into it.  Let's
     say we have a four-hour plant, and the batteries fail.  When
     the batteries fail, you're no longer going to be able to
     control RCSI, even though at Browns Ferry we thought we
     could jam the steam emission valve wide open and just take
     our chances.
               But say we lose now the ability to have RCSI. 
     Okay.  The core -- the inventory in the core is going to
     start to deplete, depending on what codes you believe for --
     you know, whether you use MAPP or MELCOR.  Within a couple
     of hours, the core is going to be melted and probably going
     through the reactor vessel and laying on the floor.
               But if you don't have -- and during this period of
     time, if you were able to restore anything, electric power,
     what you -- well, in the first part, the first four hours,
     if you got electric power back, what would you restore?
               Well, the first thing you would restore is you'd
     take -- you'd stop using the batteries and you'd try and get
     your AC and DC systems on control systems working off your
     emergency power systems or off-site.
               If you've got off-site back, everything comes on
     and you don't even worry about it.  But if you've got just
     one diesel, the first thing you're going to restore is the
     AC/DC.  The second thing you're going to do is you're going
     to start going down to probably the suppression pool and
     start cooling the suppression pool, because HPSI and RCSI,
     if you don't -- well, you don't have HPSI.
               You've got RCSI.  RCSI can't cool -- can't use the
     water from the suppression pool forever because it's too
               So if you get an electrical diesel generator back
     in the first four hours, you're first going to make sure
     your batteries are taken care of and then you're going to go
     and start suppression pool cooling, because your HPSI is
     keeping you alive and you're not worried about it, and now
     you want to start removing heat from the containment.
               So that period.  The next period of time is where
     the core is melting and when the core is melting, again, the
     first thing you're going to do, if it's after four hours and
     your batteries are gone, but then you get an emergency
     diesel generator back, you're going to go first for the
     control systems.  You're going to want to know where you
     are, what's the status of my core, is it completely melted,
     is it on the floor or et cetera, et cetera.  So that's the
     first thing.
               The second thing you're going to have, and it's
     going to be a hodgepodge with boiling water reactors.  What
     you're probably going to want to do is even if you melt it,
     you're probably going to want to put water on the core. 
     Probably.  That's probably something that you've really got
     to consider.
               The other thing is you're going to have to start
     removing heat from the containment and you're going to
     either do it RHR through the suppression pool or sprays or
     whatever method you can do, you're going to do it.
               Again, we don't see that igniters -- having
     operable igniters during this period of time is the thing
     that would cause is -- we wouldn't take our emergency diesel
     generator and automatically start taking some of that power
     off to power up the igniters.  It doesn't seem logical to
               DR. KRESS:  If the rule says you need to have
     power to the igniters, all this other stuff is what ifs. 
     But the question you're asking is should you have power to
     the igniters, should that be part of the rule.
               And if I were to ask why would I want power to
     those igniters, it's if my CDF is low enough in the sequence
     already, do I need a conditional containment failure
     probability that's very, very low, because I've already got
     the CDF low enough.
               And does having power to the hydrogen monitors do
     anything to my conditional containment failure probability? 
     I don't know that it does or not.  I would suspect it does.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  I think, Tom, I'm not explaining
     myself well.  You have X amount of dollars.  With station
     blackout, you've got X amount of dollars.  The staff is
     telling us they want to spend some additional money on
     station blackout to have the igniters operable during
     station blackout.
               It makes no sense to us.  If I am spending money
     on having an additional source of power at the plant during
     station blackout, other than my off-site power and my
     emergency diesel generators, I'm going to have it powering
     my AC and DC control and my containment heat removal
               The last thing on my mind, because I want to
     prevent core damage, and so my money is not going to go to
     igniters.  Igniters don't do anything in the first four
     hours.  Igniters probably don't do anything in the next four
     hours.  Igniters may not even do anything in the long run.
               We don't see why anyone would spend money on
     igniters, on AC power sources for igniters, when the money
     would be better spent somewhere else, either preventing core
     damage or taking care of the heat removal.
               Ultimately, supposing you could never get heat
     removal back, you're failing.  You're going to fail the
     containment.  I mean, it's just if you don't have heat
     removal, you're going to fail the containment.  I don't care
     if you've got igniters powered forever.
               So this is the -- in our mind, the most -- and
     that's why we wrote the rule the way we did or we proposed
     the rule the way we do.
               DR. KRESS:  I wasn't looking at it as an
     either/or.  I was looking at it as you need containment heat
     removal and maybe you need igniters, also.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Right.  But from my standpoint,
     from a technical standpoint, if we are going to go and
     provide additional electrical power sources other than what
     we've already got, we're not going to put it on igniters.
               If it were cost-beneficial, we'd probably put it
     on AC and DC control systems, we'd probably put it on heat
     removal, on boilers, because we want to keep water in the
     core, and so on and so forth.
               Go over to a pressurized water reactor.  Again,
     the same thing.  You lose the off-site power, you lose your
     emergency AC.  What are you down to?  Well, you're down to
     the turbine-driven emergency feedwater systems and, once
     again, the DC and the AC systems.
               On a pressurized water reactor, this is going to
     go on for X amount of time.  All right.  Now, depending on
     what model you use for the reactor coolant pump seal LOCA,
     you're going to have a LOCA at the same time because your
     steam generators are cooling, but you're also losing water
     inventory off of the primary system and you're not
     replenishing it, because you have no AC power and there's no
     turbine-driven pump that supplies water to the reactor
     pressure vessel.
               So for the first four hours, again, you're in a
     situation where you're cooling with the steam generators and
     your AC and DC power control systems are working fine.  You
     know what's going on, so on and so forth.
               Once again, if we restored anything during that
     period of time, we wouldn't be worrying about the igniters. 
     We're going to go -- if we get something back, the first
     thing we're probably going to go do is start safety
     injection, the higher pressure safety injection pumps and
     restore the inventory we lost off of the reactor coolant
     pump seal.
               So that's -- again, it's this priority of things
     that doesn't make any sense to us.  If I were going to have
     an additional power source on the plant, I'm not going to
     put it on igniters.  It makes no sense to us.
               The same goes when you start to melt the core. 
     Now, when you start to melt the core and if you get the core
     on the floor, et cetera, et cetera, you're, again, going to
     be faced with a choice, hey, do I turn on containment heat
     removal sources or do I try and get safety injection working
     so that I pump water on wherever it is, dropped in the sump
     at the bottom of the reactor vessel, wherever it is.
               But you're not going to worry about the igniters. 
     Once again, it's containment heat removal.
     So from a technical standpoint, we don't understand the
     staff's belief that having an additional power source to
     make igniters operable at MARK 3's and ice condensers --
     why?  And what we've said to them is, if you've got a
     problem, identify it.  We have still not seen any technical
     justification or even know what exactly the problem is.
               And then if you've got the problem, go put it in
     the context of the 51.09, the backfit, because then we'll
     all understand it, we'll understand what the problem is,
     we'll understand what the alternatives you're proposing are,
     and we'll understand what the cost-benefits are.
               So that's where we are on that.
               Okay.  Now, if you want to talk background. 
     Again, this work comes out of the Arkansas Task Zero and the
     San Onofre Task Zero, and the objective of those pilot
     programs, we wanted to have a more objective and efficient
     way of doing business.
               This is what we talked about before.  We wanted to
     take the whole plant, we wanted to consider a whole plant
     package, which included cost generation and risk.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  What happened to the whole plant
     study, by the way?
               MR. CHRISTIE:  It's gone.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  It's gone.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  You can't get any -- it appears
     clear that the staff of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission
     are not interested and we can't interest them in the whole
     plant study, as far as I can tell.
               So what we're down to now is working off of
     specific pieces.  Though I think that's a mistake and we'll
     talk about that a little bit later.
               And, again, the basis of what we said is that the
     primary responsibility for the public health and safety lies
     with the people who run the plant.  Their regulatory process
     is only good for public health and safety.  We've also got
     that the public health risk is different for each nuclear,
     and it changes with time.
               We have addressed, we thought, in the whole plant
     study, all the major problems that were placed in the Kemeny
     report, which is the President's report on Three Mile
     Island, and the best definition I saw of them was Dr. Thomas
     Pickford's separate opinion and we thought the whole plant
     addressed every one of those items.
               We also believe that we don't have that much time
     to do all this stuff.  We've got to get more efficient and
     effective, because basically, in an economically deregulated
     power industry, if you're not effective and efficient,
     you're not going to be a producer of power very long.
               So the more effective and efficient we go, we
     believe the best definition of what's going to happen to the
     nuclear power plants in the future is contained in this
     paper by Mr. Shiffer, who is a retired executive out at
     Pacific Gas & Electric, someone who has lived through it on
     Diablo Canyon and, in this paper, told us what the future
     would look like.
               Now, just a quick -- and we've been all through
     this before with you.  If you look at the San Onofre
     evaluation report, again, this we've known for 20 years. 
     The overall public health risk is dominated by severe
     accidents where the core is damaged and containment is
     bypassed or breached.
               DR. KRESS:  Before we take that one off, let me
     ask you a philosophical question about that.  Should NRC
     just be concerned with the dominant accident sequences or
     should they be concerned with accidents that may be more
     frequent, but not as dominant in terms of risk, but have
     some consequences?
               That's the philosophical question.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Tom, you know, when I'm talking
     about the whole plant, you -- and I talked to you on March
     1st.  To my mind, what the nuclear industry should be
     shooting for is what I call the whole plant study.
               We should know from top to bottom what that plant
     represents with respect to public health risks.  We should
     know it.  I mean, we should know what the health effects
     are.  We should know what I call source term.
               I look at it from the standpoint of a PRA.  From
     the standpoint of a PRA, out of a level three, I get source
     terms to the people.  We should know what those source terms
     are.  We should -- they're in categories.  We should know
     what the probabilities are, we should know how much
     tellurium and cesium.
               We should know that.  We should have that
     information for every plant.  To go back to the output of
     the level two, we should know what the plant damage states
     are and level one and level two in the containment event
     tree.  We should know all of this material.
               We should know it all from top to bottom.  We
     should know what the systems are responding, you know, that
     it's a high probability, we should know it all.
               When we get that information, we ought to make the
     -- the plant ought to be able to determine for themselves
     what level in there should we go to to make sure that we
     have provided the adequate protection of public health and
               They're almost invariably going to go to lowest
     level possible.  They're going to go down to system, because
     that's what they can control.
               But we have to know the whole picture, because I'm
     not smart enough to know the whole picture without doing the
     whole picture.  So that's -- my philosophical thing is we
     ought to consider everything, every accident -- you know,
     risk assessment doesn't say, hey, I only consider the ones
     that have a frequency greater than so-and-so.  They take
     every frequency.
               They don't consider just single failures.  They
     consider every failure possible.  They don't consider, hey,
     we can't have this plant damage.  They consider all plant
     damage.  That's the beauty of the risk assessment.
               So that's what I'm --
               DR. KRESS:  I agree with you.  The question is
     what should the NRC concern itself with in terms of their
     activities and rules and so forth.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  They start from the top.  If they
     are absolutely convinced we meet the top, why do they go any
     further?  If you meet the goals, why are you going any
     further?  The rest of it belongs to the utility.
               See, I look at the thing, there's a certain amount
     of expertise in the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.  They
     should focus on the things that they can do well and that
     they can add to value.
               The value that they can add is that they're
     nuclear.  We don't have a coal regulatory commission.  We
     have a Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
               If you wanted to protect against coal boiler
     explosions, would you create a coal regulatory -- no.  You
     let the utility handle it.
               DR. KRESS:  I guess where I may different a little
     from that is it seems to me like the goals of NRC are not
     just the two quantitative health objectives.  They have
     goals that are different than those and they have to do with
     controlling things like worker exposure and controlling
     smaller releases of higher frequency.
               There are rules in there that deal with those kind
     of things, and I call those goals, also.  And I don't know
     where NRC should --
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Do you believe -- you know, the
     nuclear business, in my time, has undergone tremendous
     revolution.  It's phenomenal to me now today that you can
     have nuclear power plants with a total quantitative dose to
     all the workers at the plant is under 100 rem.
               I mean, we used to do 500 rem.  Okay.  Now, that
     happened in my lifetime and it didn't happen because the
     Nuclear Regulatory Commission dictated it.
               DR. KRESS:  It was because the guys at the plant
               MR. CHRISTIE:  The guys at the plant are not dumb
     people and they have -- and I'm not afraid to admit
     self-interest, man.  We're going into a private enterprise
     system in which our survival is necessary.
               But the beauty of it all is, and as you heard me
     say this before, you can't have a safe plant that isn't a
     good economic plant.  You can't have a good economic plant
     that isn't a safe plant.  It doesn't work that way.
               You will do things right across the board.  The
     guys in maintenance ops, engineering, et cetera, they don't
     -- no, it's a balance of plant, I'm going to do a shitty
     job, or it's a balance of plant, I'm going to do a great
     job, or it's safety-related, I'm going to do a great job, or
     it's safety-related, I'm going to do -- they don't do that.
               They do a good job, and so from my standpoint,
     there's an absolute role for the Nuclear Regulatory
     Commission.  It's there.  People have a fear of nuclear and
     they have created, through law, the Nuclear Regulatory
     Commission.  I think you're a good thing.
               Okay.  I mean, they haven't created a coal because
     people don't think that coal kills people to the same degree
     they do about nuclear.
               So the Nuclear Regulatory Commission has a role
     and they can fill it, great, but they ought to focus on the
     things that they can do the best and the part that's the
     best for them is the nuclear part.
               What's the health effects part?  You know, we've
     ignored that for almost ten years now, as far as I can tell.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  So you would like every unit to
     have a level three PRA.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Absolutely.  Absolutely.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Well, let's see what --
               MR. CHRISTIE:  I don't know.  I think we are
     derelict in our duty if we don't.  When I was at the
     Tennessee Valley Authority, in charge of PRAs, every PRA we
     did was a level three, every one.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  As you know, the trend now is to
     work with LERF and CDF.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  That's because you made it so.  I
     didn't make it so and some of the people at the plants
     didn't make it so.  Some of them still have level three and
     we still use them.
               Going back to -- again, the San Onofre safety
     evaluation report, it's not the design basis accidents,
     again.  It's the severe accidents, et cetera.
               The stuff that we put in the plants for design
     basis accidents don't work in severe accidents.  They're way
     under-sized, et cetera, et cetera.
               Paying attention to design basis accidents can be
     detrimental.  In the case of San Onofre, it was the
     distraction of the operators because they're paying
     attention to a non-safety-significant piece of equipment, at
     the detriment of the safety-significant equipment, and we
     want that.
               So I guess the things we learned out of the San
     Onofre --
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  I guess I have to understand
     that a little better.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Sure.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  What is this distraction we're
     talking about?  It seems that's a high level statement. 
     They have to do an extra thing so that --
               MR. CHRISTIE:  If you have a design basis set of
     things and you do it, one of the things is that you have as
     part of the design basis, all the 50.44, et cetera, et
     cetera, and you will have to have hydrogen monitoring in
     place at X amount of time after an accident.
               If you follow the NUREG-0737, it was 30 minutes,
     but now, because of Arkansas Task Zero, a lot of the plants
     have moved to 90 minutes, et cetera.  But some of the plants
     still have the 30-minute requirement.
               What it means is that one of the reactor operators
     in the horseshoe, and, generally, if you're at minimal crew,
     there's only two, at some point in the accident, as dictated
     by the rules, has to pick himself up off out of the main
     boards and go set up the secondary boards, because almost
     all these things are not on the main boards.
               It's not something -- you have to go to back
     boards and hook things -- you've got to coordinate.  That's
     the other thing.  You've got to start coordinating.  Health
     physics has got to get in, chemistry has got to get in, ops
     has got to get in, maintenance has got -- it's a whole
     process thing.
               And you just pick somebody up out of the control
     room, paying attention to things like, you know, what are
     the thermocouples in the core telling us, what are the
     radiation monitors telling us.  It goes away.
               DR. KRESS:  Just to start up the hydrogen system.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Just to start up the hydrogen
     system, which we all agree doesn't work for anything that
     really counts.  That's the distraction.
               DR. KRESS:  And he could be using that time to do
     other things.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Right.  Hey, monitoring what your
     thermocouple is telling you, what your heat removal, making
     sure your steam -- if you're a pressurized water reactor,
     making sure your steam generators are working correctly,
     watching your pressure/temperature curves, et cetera, et
               All these things that we put in since Three Mile
     Island, now we're pulling a guy up and away he goes.  And
     it's not that one single operator can't do it, they can do
     it.  But can they do it as well as two?  Probably not.
               And when they get near drills and that, you know,
     they get -- well, anyway, it's just not right and we've --
     you know, and I think the staff of the Nuclear Regulatory
     Commission agreed.  They approved the Arkansas, they
     approved the San Onofre, and we're moving towards rulemaking
     and we're getting agreement on a lot of things.
               So anyway, my read is the important things that
     we've got to pay attention to with severe accidents, we've
     got to focus on containment integrity.  The existing
     recombiners and purge don't work and the existing
               And this is what we got out of San Onofre. 
     Following the February meeting with the Nuclear Regulatory
     Commission, it became clear to us that it wasn't -- the
     rulemaking was not going to be something that happened
               So what we did is we started an effort in the
     industry to go out and now we're going to produce exemption
     requests similar to the San Onofre exemption request and
     file it under the 50.12 process.
               So this is the results from the first six plants
     that we looked at under this process.  So what we're
     interested in here is what are the action levels, what's
     your design pressure and your failure pressure, what kind of
     system do you use in the plant, and when do you use them and
     how permanent are they and all the rest of that kind of
               What came out of this study is that, man, there's
     a wide variation in the implementation.  I mean, we were
     working off of San Onofre, which is basically recombiners
     with a backup purge that was never used.  And then we found
     that at the plants that the recombiners were either off-site
     or on a warehouse on-site or somewhere.
               So if you wanted to do something with hydrogen in
     the short term, you were going to have to use the purge. 
     Also, believe it or not, they have systems called
     repressurization systems, because if you do design basis
     work, what happens is you don't reach the action levels in
     hydrogen until days into the accidents and by that time, you
     have cooled the containment to such a point that you don't
     have any driving point, any driving force to move the stuff
     out, the hydrogen out of the containment.  So you have a
     repressurization system.
               This is caused by design basis accident analysis. 
     So theoretically, you've got a system in a plant, if you're
     using purge, the way you have to pump up the containment to
     move out the hydrogen.
               So we saw this and the recombiners, some of them
     were off-site, some of them were on-site, et cetera, et
               What we saw is the use of the pressurization purge
     and the moveable recombiners, that's dangerous.  It's
     dangerous to both the workers on-site and the people
               If we have a severe accident and somebody opens up
     a purge valve, the calculations on the inner system LOCA and
     the steam generator tube ruptures are going to be dwarfed in
               That's just a fact of life.
               DR. KRESS:  How big are those valves?
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Okay.  The six we got, we got a
     six-inch, a four-inch and 48-inch butterfly.
               DR. KRESS:  Pretty good size lines, aren't they?
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Well, 48-inch butterfly is fairly
     big.  They're using the normal purge, but they got a stop in
     it at 15 degrees instead of 90, which they -- then the other
     thing is, what are these things going to do?
               Suppose you really did, in a severe accident, open
     up a purge valve.  You're going to saturate the HEPA filters
     without even blinking.  They're going to be ineffective to
     beat the band, and who knows what's going to happen to the
     valves.  The junk that's flowing through those valve paths
     are is just phenomenal.
               I wouldn't -- again, I think everybody agrees it's
     not a good thing to do.  No one would recommend opening a
     purge valve in a severe accident.  Simple thing.  No one
     would recommend hooking up a recombiner.  We got recombiners
     that are stored off-site or stored on-site, where you have a
     pad right next to the reactor building containment, and
     theoretically, you're going to go hook up a recombiner in a
     severe accident.
               Now, the doses at Three Mile Island were measured
     outside the reactor building, if I remember correctly, were
     measured in the tens to hundred R per hour range.  You
     believe the workers are going to go out there and hook
     anything up?  It's not going to happen, and we know that.
               You see, it's not something we don't know.  The
     other thing we checked out is that on all the large -- these
     are all large drives.  What's the containment capability? 
     Can you stand the burn without the recombiners, without the
     purge, without the monitors, without anything?
               Fine.  As far as we can tell, everybody has got
     more than enough capability to withstand a burn.  Three Mile
     Island did.  It was designed for 50 psi gauge, it probably
     had an ultimate of about 150.  It stood 28 without even
               And the hydrogen production rate at Three Mile
     Island was probably about as great as you can get, when you
     think of the zirc water we did.  We drained it, we threw the
     water by it as we were draining it, then we filled it again,
     we drained and we threw the water by it again, then we
     drained it and threw the water by it.
               I mean, if you were talking about how much
     hydrogen can you get out of the zirc water, you'd run a
     Three Mile Island accident.  So we had, what, 45 percent
     zirc water, somewhere in that neighborhood, and about an
     eight percent containment volume and it burned and got a 28
               The large drives, they can stand it.  It's not --
     okay.     Here's a personal belief of mine.  I just don't
     like going to the plants and having the plant people
     understand that they're writing procedures for design basis,
     where the reality is they're not going to follow them, and
     if they did follow them, it was going to really be hurting
               Now, these are not dumb people.  Okay.  But their
     problem, again, is the application of probabilistic risk
     assessment at plants across the United States is not
     uniform.  Not everybody does use PRA across the board.
               So you've got to be careful.  Some plants are
     still living in design basis space to a much greater degree
     than others.
               So my problem is I don't like knowing that we got
     in the plants the potential for problem, knowing what the
     solution is, and we can't take immediate action.
               Now, the plants are going to turn in their
     exemption requests, because they don't believe the
     rulemaking is going to be anything that's going to be fast,
     and the exemption request will take care of it, because
     we'll get rid of the recombiners and the purgers and the
     hydrogen monitors, et cetera, and you'll never have to worry
     about it.  It will become blanked off for purges, et cetera.
               But that takes a while.  I mean, you know, we're
     thinking maybe about two in the month of July and a couple
     more and so on.  And it just seems weird.
               Now, we've had some discussions.  Mr. Mike
     Snodderly just told me today there may be another way. 
     Maybe we can go in and change the emergency operating
     procedures generically type of thing.   
               I suggested in my letter of May 30th an
     information notice to let people know that they shouldn't be
     doing things like opening purge valves and moving
     recombiners in a severe accident.
               So I think we're going to do something.  It's
     just, myself personally, it takes a while.  It just flat
     takes a while.
     Why do we have a system where we have a known problem with a
     known solution and it takes the bureaucracy an awful
     inordinate amount of time to get the solution solved?
               All right.  Let's go.  We're running out of time,
     but we'll see if we can get through.
               Let's go the proposed rulemaking.  The first thing
     we wanted to do was change Appendix A, Part 50, Appendix A,
     criterion 41.
               If you look at criterion 41, what it says is
     you'll have a hydrogen control system and what it's going to
     do, it's going to reduce the concentration and quality of
     fission products released in the environment by postulating
     accidents and the control of the concentration of hydrogen
     or oxygen to the other substances in a containment
     atmosphere following postulated accidents.
               Okay.  So this is what it says.  It says we're
     going to reduce the concentrations that can get out and
     we're going to control the hydrogen in.  All right.  And
     it's going to be postulated accidents.
               Okay.  Well, we know that the postulated accidents
     don't work.  So when we were looking at a GDC and you were
     asking how are you going to risk-inform the GDC.  Okay.  The
     first thing we're going to do is we thought we'd take out
     the stuff about the postulated accidents.
               Providing things to reduce the concentration of
     fission products and to control hydrogen and oxygen for
     postulated accidents, that doesn't work in risk-informed
               So what we said is, okay, let's write it this way. 
     We're going to have systems to control fission products,
     hydrogen, et cetera, et cetera, to assure that the reactor
     containment is maintained for accidents in which there is a
     high probability for fission products to be present.
               We moved it out of design basis space into severe
     accident space.  Now, in some of the comments to the
     rulemaking, they said, well, you're going to have to define
     high probability.  I agree, we're going to have to define
     high probability, but the reality is we already got the tool
     to do that.  We got the risk assessments and every plant in
     the United States can define the sequences with high
               Now, where they cut it off or where everybody cuts
     it off, we'll argue about that till the day I die.  But the
     reality is the plants have the tool, and so we've got this
     -- we re-created a GDC or a criterion to move it from design
     to severe accident space.  We think we've done a good job.
               So we knew we had to change the GDC, because if we
     had changed 50.44, but we didn't change the GDC, then we're
     still in the postulated accident space, et cetera, et
     cetera, et cetera.  It wouldn't work.  So we've got to
     change the GDC, if you want to go to severe accident space.
               Inerted containment, no problem.  MARK 3 and ice
     condensers have to have the igniters, no problem.  Leave it
     the same.  We added one and this one is causing a lot of
               We thought it was pretty simple.  What we said was
     if you're a large dry and you're depending on the
     containment capability, which is what you're doing now, all
     the plants in the United States with large drys depend upon
     containment capability to stand the burn.
               If that's what's going on, why the regulation that
     says withstand a burn?  Okay.  Regulation could correspond
     to risk.  If the risk is the containment is going to
     withstand it or not, then write your regulation that says
               So that we wrote it, say, and we put in words and,
     man, these words caused trouble, based upon realistic
     calculations, can withstand, without any hydrogen control
     system, hydrogen burn for accidents, again, with a high
     probability of existing -- of causing severe -- you know.
               But to me, this is the words that you got to have
     in severe accident space.
               Now, the beauty of this is every large dry in the
     United States has already done this.  We've all done
     mid-core.  We all went back after Three Mile Island and all
     of us looked at it, the NRC looked at it, the industry
     looked at, and all of use evaluated the ability of the large
     drys to withstand the burns.
               We all evaluated it in the 51.09 backfit space. 
     We all said they can withstand the burns, we don't need the
     igniters in the large dry.
               So what this proposed rule says, let's make our
     knowledge that came out of Three Mile Island and all this
     stuff from mid-core and so on and so forth, let's make it
     correspond to what we're doing today.  We are basing it on
     the ability of large drys to withstand the burns.  Write the
     regulation to say large drys withstand the burn.
               DR. KRESS:  When you talk about hydrogen control
     system, does that include something to be sure the hydrogen
     is mixed and doesn't reach --
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Yes.  That's the other part.  We'll
     go back in the 50.44.  We didn't change any of that mixing.
               DR. KRESS:  That's still part of it.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Right.  This is a whole package.
               DR. KRESS:  Then why did you choose 75 percent?
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Because that's what is in there,
     that's the igniter.
               DR. KRESS:  That's already in there.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  If you had a large dry that
     couldn't withstand a burn, then you go through the backfit
     process to see whether you put the igniters in.  If the
     backfit process says put the igniters in, you put the
     igniters in.  That's all this proposal will say.
               DR. KRESS:  Okay.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  It's, we think, pretty simple and
     it says, hey, this is what we're doing out there in the
     world, write the regulation to say what you're doing in the
               We wanted to make the regulations and the risk
     comparable.  I mean, that's the whole purpose of
     risk-informed performance-based regulation.  And we think
     we've done it.  That's what we think.
               And this is just the same thing for the high point
               DR. KRESS:  Let me ask about large drys.  Clearly,
     in my mind, they can withstand the hydrogen burn, but a
     hydrogen burn with igniters spreads the pressure out over a
     long period.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  I'm not sure that that's true.
               DR. KRESS:  It burns the hydrogen as it goes in,
               MR. CHRISTIE:  It depends on when they're turned
     on and how fast the stuff goes.
               DR. KRESS:  Yes, but that's the general idea. 
     Whereas if you didn't have igniters in those, then you could
     build up the hydrogen to a pretty high level.  They're
     designed so you don't get up to detonation levels,
     generally, but you can get up to a pretty high level and
     then ignite them by some ignition source and you get a much
     different kind of pressure spike.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Three Mile Island is proof of that.
               DR. KRESS:  Yes.  Would there be any difference in
     the nature -- I'm also assuming if you've got that much
     hydrogen in there, you're in a severe accident and you also
     have fission products present at the same time.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Sure.
               DR. KRESS:  Would there be much difference in the
     release of fission products and their subsequent
     consequences between those two scenarios?
               MR. CHRISTIE:  No, because in order to get the
     fission product releases, if you got that point, just like
     we did at Three Mile Island, you're going to have to have
     heat removal.  Containment heat removal has got to fail. 
     Whether you burn it fast, slow, it doesn't matter.  What's
     going to happen is the containment is going to stand the
     burn, whether it's slow or fast doesn't matter.
               DR. KRESS:  I'm assuming that you still have
     leakage, normal leakage path, and --
               MR. CHRISTIE:  But the amount of material that's
     getting out in the normal leakage path is so infinitesimal
     and such a small -- I mean, what -- we're not going to --
               DR. KRESS:  You say it's not worth worrying about
     that difference, is what you're saying.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Not worth worrying about.  Not
     worth worrying about.  Not that I can see, Tom.  I mean, you
     know, we -- I think.  And Lord only knows that we've spent
     gobs of money.
               DR. KRESS:  Suppose the difference between those
     types of burns meant you -- in the one burn with the
     igniters, you were below 10 CFR 100, and the other burn, you
     were just a little above it.  Is that something that --
               MR. CHRISTIE:  I'll tell you this, flat.  If
     you're in severe accident space --
               DR. KRESS:  You don't worry about 10 CFR 100.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  10 CFR 100 is long gone, in my
     mind.  If the tech support center is worried about 100, when
     we're in a severe accident, especially Three Mile Island, we
               DR. KRESS:  They're focusing on the wrong thing.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Yes.  We ought to start replacing
     that tech support center fast.
               I'm almost close to being on time.  To summarize,
     I have and others have -- a sufficient knowledge exists to
     change the regulation of combustible gas control.  We don't
     need anymore studies, we don't need anymore work.  We don't
     - you know, we can spend hundreds of millions of dollars
     more if we want to, but we don't need to.
               We're done.  I mean, enough is enough.  I
     absolutely believe that if you're going to rewrite the
     regulations, you've got to focus them on the severe
     accident.  I mean, that's just the way you've got to write
     the regulations.
               I know that's a major cultural change with the
     staff of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and they are also
     included as a major regulatory change for the staffs at the
     nuclear power plants, but we've got to get through that.  I
     mean, we've got to.
               In order to have more effective and efficient
     regulations, we've got to get through that.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Actually -- go ahead.
               DR. KRESS:  Go ahead.  I've asked enough.  You go
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Isn't the notion, the very name
     severe accident tied to design basis accident, the concept
     of design basis?
               MR. CHRISTIE:  I don't think so.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Beyond design basis is severe.
               DR. KRESS:  In a sense, that's an arbitrary thing,
     but to say the regulations ought to focus on severe
     accidents, which is what I heard right there, seems a little
     bit problematic to me, because the reason the severe
     accidents are the risk dominant ones is because the
     regulations have gotten rid of all of the high frequency --
               MR. CHRISTIE:  I disagree with that completely.  I
     disagree with that completely.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  But I think you can rephrase it. 
     Let's say we start with a clean slate.  Instead of using
     terminology that is really tied to the existing system, what
     you're really saying there is focus on risk.
               DR. KRESS:  Yes.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Okay.  That would be appropriate. 
     I accept that.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Which now will lead you -- what
     does it mean to focus on risk?  Well, you are going to the
     sequences of events that dominate that risk.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  That's right.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  And you are free now from design
     basis or whatever.  You look at the sequence and say what's
     the best job I can do to make sure the risk is low.
               DR. KRESS:  I think that would be a good approach.
               DR. BONACA:  I think there is space for both
     needs.  When you design ECCS systems, you are using some
     requirements of the existing law that make sense.  You are
     designing how much water do you need to deal with some
     limiting accidents of some type.
               Now, when you evaluate the response of other
     systems, you may need to focus the way you're saying.  What
     I'm trying to say, you cannot exclude it.  It's the same way
     in which, after TMI, we discovered that using the analysis
     made to design the plants, to train the operator was wrong,
     because life, things don't move the way that the analysis
     for designing the plant moved.
               So in designing the plant, you are looking at
     limiting events to build equipment that will deal also with
     the limiting event.  In training the operator, you develop
     analysis that gives you what will really happen in most
     cases, so that the operators are able to deal with those
               So I'm only saying that to say we only should
     focus on severe accident is somewhat limiting insofar as
     regulation is concerned, because you still have some design
     objectives that you want to maintain there.  Who knows? 
     Maybe we'll beat another plant ten years from now.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Yes, but that's not in the
     present.  Anyway, we understand the spirit of this.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Yes.  We've been through this many
     times.  Okay.
               The next thing is when we put together the
     proposed rulemaking, again, it's a first of a kind and we
     were doing the best job we could.
               But what we thought -- and, see, this is our
     framework.  Our framework starts on public health risk is
     dominated by severe accidents, with containment bypass and
     breach, probabilistic risk assessment is the best tool to
     measure it.
               You're going to focus on the sequences that are
     most significant, and so on and so forth.
               So our framework just said, okay, let's start with
     that kind of a philosophical approach to the whole problem
     and then let's just go ahead -- and what we said is let's
     retain whatever is in there that's effective and efficient.
               So if you got high point vents, if you got
     inerting, if you got igniters for the MARK 3, and so and so,
     fine, retain it.  Just keep it.  No sweat.  Add where
               We added the section that had to do with the large
     drys, checking their containment capability.
               Now, we would believe that that would be an
     appropriate addition to the rulemaking process to cover the
     large dry plants.
               In essence, we've already done it.  Let's just put
     it in the regulations.  To me, it passed the backfit rule.
               DR. KRESS:  Because you've already done it.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Right.
               DR. KRESS:  It's not going to cost you very much,
     is it?
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Right.  You've already done it, it
     doesn't cost you anything, and it meets the backfit rule. 
     And then delete whatever is not effective and efficient.
               We wiped out, and I think we got agreement now, we
     wiped out all the post-LOCA design basis hydrogen
     requirements.  I mean, to me, it's a simple problem in just
     -- I don't need option three, I don't need option two.  I
     can sit down and write a rule to address the specific thing
     just doing exactly what I said.
               Go through, identify the things that are important
     in probabilistic risk assessment space, retain what's
     effective and efficient, add where it's necessary, and
     delete whatever is left.
               I absolutely believe this is -- this petition for
     rulemaking is a risk-positive thing.  By that, I mean the
     potential for health effects on people surrounding the plant
     will be less if this petition for rulemaking is approved
     than if it's not.
               We have identified certain problems with the
     existing regulations, which have to do with distracting the
     operators, having the potential for purge valves open,
     having the potential for guys wandering around the yards
     after severe -- you know, et cetera, et cetera.   
               We can eliminate those.  We can have not only a
     safer plant, but a more cost-effective.  I think it's -- why
     aren't we doing this tomorrow?  I mean, that's the thing
     that's driving me the nuttiest.
               It's everybody comes out ahead.  I sat there in
     that meeting with the Commissioners on the 20th and had
     people come up and say the industry is only interested in
     the economics and we'll -- you know, that's all we're --
     we're not.  We're interested in doing things that make the
     plants better, both from a safety standpoint and an
               Anything that makes it better, and both is our
     first priority.
               DR. KRESS:  What is the status of your petition?
               MR. CHRISTIE:  You'll find out this afternoon.  I
     hope you ask, and ask well.
               DR. BONACA:  I have a question.  On your slide C,
     where you're talking about basing the removal of -- for dry
     containment based on the reactor containment capability.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Right.
               DR. BONACA:  For the first time really, you are
     tying a requirement to a severe accident assumption of
     performance in the containment.
               What I mean is that if you look at the
     containments, the way they are today, they are designed to
     meet whatever the design requirement, assuming the design
     basis, say 50 psi capacity.
               And then in your presentation, you're saying 140,
     130 psi capability.  We made these estimates for the PRAs. 
     They were based on the original design of the containments.
               Now, we know containments with aging go through
     relaxations.  There are relaxation of tendons and there are
     requirements that by the time they get down to certain
     values, these tendons be retensioned and things of that
               But that's an interesting concept, because you are
     tying a specific requirement to a performance, which right
     now is not being regulated.  It's just an estimate.
               And the question I have is, for example, would it
     be a problem for a containment?
               MR. CHRISTIE:  To the best of my knowledge, it's
     not.  We've already been through this.  It's not a problem
     for the containment.
               DR. BONACA:  No, no, no.  We haven't gone through
     this, I'm sorry.  We have used the original design of the
     containments to perform an estimate of their ultimate
     capability.  But the fact is when you monitor containment
     tendons performance, you allow them to relax, until they get
     to a certain limit, where the capability for design basis
     used is challenged and then you are going to replace and
     retension and so and so forth.  You have programs to do
               So I'm saying that the age of a containment, its
     ultimate capability may not always be at the level we use
     for the IPEs or the PRAs.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Okay.  And, again, I'm going back
     to the -- we've had a test case for large drys and hydrogen
     combustion.  It's called Three Mile Island Unit 2.  In
     there, this was a containment designed for 50, probably had
     an ultimate of 150.
               We produced hydrogen in Three Mile Island in
     bushels, probably more than we're ever going to ever produce
     again.  The spike was less than the design.  Okay.
               We can argue, hey, it might be 30 psi if we had
     done something different, et cetera, et cetera, but the
     difference between 30 and 150 is -- fine, maybe 20 years
     from now, the containment ultimate is 135.  I don't care.
               I mean, as long as we've got this kind of tool
     that allows us to put these things in perspective and to
     make decisions to spend money, we've got to use it.
               If we don't use it, then we won't be as effective
     and efficient.  And I'm the last person in the world to say
     it's the perfect tool, I'm the last person to say that it's
     going to be fixed in concrete and we're never going to
     change our knowledge base and what we know and understand.
               I'm the opposite.  I think it's going to change
     constantly and we've got to be -- and I'm with you.  We've
     got to be aware of those.
               But what I want to focus on is the things that are
     safety significant.  I want to stop spending the money on
     the things that aren't safety significant.
               DR. BONACA:  I agree with you 100 percent.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Okay.
               DR. BONACA:  But there has to be some defensible
     technical basis for everything that we are going to discuss
     and accept.
               I'm saying that I see the reference here to the
     ultimate capability of containments.  There has been a
     criterion in here proposed that bases itself on that
     capability and I'm saying the capability, however, is not
     one that is guaranteed.
               In fact, it varies because all the monitoring
     systems for the capability are not focusing on the ultimate
     capability, they are focusing on the design pressure of the
     containment, which is well below that.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  I do not read --
               DR. BONACA:  That is what's being preserved.  What
     is being preserved is a design capability of the
     containment.  That's all I said.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  I don't see anywhere in that
     proposed rulemaking that says that we're using the ultimate
     capability.  We're just saying that the large drys are going
     to check their containment capability.  We don't use
     ultimate capacity.  We just say for high probability events,
     check your containment capability.
               Whether you use design, whether you use ultimate,
     whatever you do, that's for the people at the plants to
     decide how to do it, and they've done it.
               Now, the last thing is, and this goes to the
     schedule and where we stand.  You've got to remember that
     this rulemaking didn't come from me as a rulemaking effort. 
     It came from me as a letter to the Commissioners saying
     based upon what I read in the San Onofre safety evaluation
     report, we've got a problem and here is my solution to the
               And the Commissioners sent it down to the Office
     of Nuclear Reactor Regulation for fix.  The fix that Nuclear
     Reactor Regulation and I have worked out is the rulemaking.
               This is a rulemaking.  This is not part of option
     three, it doesn't depend on option there.  When we agreed to
     rulemaking, it had nothing to do with option three.
               The letter I sent back in to NRR -- and I was
     dealing with NRR and I'm still dealing with NRR on the
     rulemaking -- it says fine, if you want to take this over to
     the option three people in Research and treat it as one of
     the things that they should be using as the first set of
     things to do, I have no problems with that.  But this is a
               Okay.  The status of it is today, the people who
     are doing option three tell me -- well, first off, in the
     February meeting, they told us they'd have recommendations
     to the Commission in June.  Now, as I understand it, the
     recommendations go to the Commission in August, but they'll
     talk to you about that I hope this afternoon.
               But it's not a rulemaking.  The recommendations
     that they're going to make to the Commissioners in August
     are not -- they were explicit that it's not going to be a
               What they're going to send is something to the
     Commissioners that's going to recommend something and then
     they're going to wait for the Commissioners to make a
     decision as to what to do and then they're going to start a
     rulemaking process.
               And I'm looking at the thing and I'm saying to
     myself, wait a minute, we sent it in, we didn't send it in
     as a rulemaking, but then we agreed that the rulemaking was
     the best way to handle the thing, and you're going to send a
     recommendation up that doesn't say rulemake.
               It doesn't make any sense to me.  Now, I don't
     understand the bureaucracy at the Nuclear Regulatory
     Commission any more than I'm sure they do, but it just
     doesn't seem to me to be efficient to go back and start a
     whole new affair.  We've got a rulemaking, we've got a
     petition.  We've been through the public comment period.
               If you wanted a -- if the staff of the Nuclear
     Regulatory Commission wanted to push that through, all they
     got to do is say, boom, final rulemaking, and away it goes.
               Now, if the staff of the Nuclear Regulatory
     Commission doesn't want to have the petition approved, fine,
     then they say they don't want to have it approved and here's
     the following reasons and they send me a letter back saying
     we've considered it, but we don't want to do it, and too
               DR. KRESS:  Well, it seems to me like if NRC has
     embarked upon option three, which is risk-informing a great
     deal of Part 50, and that they have a priority system on
     which regulation they're going to do first and that if this
     one fits into that priority system, so that it gets early
     attention, and that all they're doing is trying to figure
     out what they mean by risk-informing the rule, it seems like
     it's appropriate to include it under that process.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  I have no problem at all.
               DR. KRESS:  That's the way I read what's going on.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  The way I read it is they're going
     back to square one.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  We'll ask them this afternoon.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Right.  Ask them this afternoon. 
     The things that I have a problem with right now are the bit
     about station blackout for the MARK 3's and the ice
     condensers.  It doesn't make any technical sense to me.  And
     then where in the world are we with respect to getting a
     rulemaking gone?
               I think we've got a good rulemaking.  I think
     we're very close to having complete agreement on a
     rulemaking, as far as I can tell.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Okay.  Thank you very much, Bob. 
     We will recess until 12:45.
               [Whereupon, at 11:47 a.m., the meeting was
     recessed, to reconvene at 12:45 p.m., this same day.].             A F T E R N O O N  S E S S I O N
                                              [12:47 p.m.]
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  We are back in session.  This
     afternoon we will discuss the risk-informed revision of 10
     CFR Part 50 option three and 10 CFR 50.44.
               I understand most of the presentation is on 50.44. 
     I thought it was to be on option three.  I don't know.
               I have a number of comments on SECY-00-0086, which
     I don't know now how we can transmit to you and when the
     committee will have a chance to review that, because this is 
     a very important document.
               At some point, we will have to write a letter, I
     suppose.  That would be sometime in December, Tom?
               MR. KING:  I think we're talking about two
     letters, probably.  We owe the Commission a paper in August,
     which is primarily to present our recommendations on 50.44,
     but, also, as part of that paper, we're going to provide an
     updated framework document, recognizing that this is all
     work in progress and things are evolving as we go.     
               We're also going to present the Commission any
     policy issues they have to deal with and we're going to talk
     about those today.
               I think these are policy issues that aren't
     limited to 50.44.  These are broader policy issues.  It was
     50.44 that brought them out.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  So in July we will have to write
     a letter.
               MR. KING:  So I would like a letter either in July
     or, at the latest, I know you don't have an August meeting,
     but you have a meeting starting August 30th, I think, your
     September meeting, that would probably be the latest for
     that August paper.
               Then in December, we owe another report to the
     Commission and we would probably be asking for a letter on
     that one, as well.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  And that would be on option
     three, independent of 50.44.
               MR. KING:  Well, 50.44 is part of option three,
     remember.  It's the first test case that we're running
     through the framework.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  But we haven't discussed the
     framework, that's my concern.
               MR. KING:  We had discussed it back in March or
     so.  We went through the framework.  You had given us a
     number of comments.  We didn't ask for a letter.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Without the benefit of a
     document, though.  We had the viewgraphs, I remember, but
     not the document.  I mean, this is the first time I see this
     document and it's being transmitted to the Commissioners
     April 12.
               MS. DROUIN:  It was transmitted then, but it was
     out for public comment.  The first of February, we sent it
     to the public document room.  It was on the web site.  So
     it's been out there since February 1.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Well, sure, but --
               MR. KING:  Recognize, the April 12 package is not
     the final framework.  It was a status report and we gave the
     Commission what we called a draft framework.  It represented
     work that was done up to that time and the framework is
     evolving as we proceed and we get into these test cases.
               So your comments on the framework are certainly --
     it's not too late.  We certainly are interested in those.  I
     mean, if you want to give those to us today, fine.  If you
     want to talk about them, if you want to schedule another
     meeting to talk about them, whatever.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  I don't know how the members
               DR. KRESS:  I think it's an extremely important
     document and we ought to schedule a meeting and get the full
     benefit of comments from as much of the committee as we can,
     the subcommittee anyway.
               MR. KING:  We got comments -- not recently -- a
     couple months from NEI on the framework.  We're having a
     meeting with them tomorrow to talk about their comments on
     the framework.
               So they continue to come in as time goes on.
               DR. KRESS:  This is a seminal document.  We really
     ought to --
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  It's a big thing.  We can
     decide.  I don't know.  Mario, do you have any thoughts? 
     Bill?  Bob?  Jack?  Any comments?
               MR. KING:  It would be useful to do that, though,
     before this August paper goes up.  The sooner the better.
               DR. KRESS:  We'd have to do it with subcommittee
               MR. KING:  But when?
               DR. KRESS:  Just have a subcommittee of the whole. 
     Get all the members here.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  The problem with full committee
     meetings is that you can't really get into detail.
               DR. KRESS:  You can't get into enough detail for
     this document at the full committee.  I'd rather have a
     subcommittee of the whole and have a full day of it, at
     least, maybe even more, if they would agree to it.
               MR. KING:  We're having our own internal retreat
     on the framework document and 50.44 on July 14, as you know. 
     Even internally we're getting some comments on it.
               DR. BONACA:  Will you be here the morning of the
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  I will be here in the morning,
     yes, Tuesday morning, the 11th.  In fact, the P&P meeting
     can be pushed a little bit into the afternoon, or another
     way would be to maybe do the P&P in the morning, finish with
               DR. BONACA:  We can adjust that.
               MR. KING:  That would be much better for us,
     because we have a meeting with NEI in the morning of July
               DR. KRESS:  We could cover it pretty well in half
     a day, I think.
               MR. KING:  Half a day would probably be --
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  I'm sorry.  What?
               MR. KING:  A half a day meeting would probably be
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Half a day, you know, four to
     five hours.  I don't think we need more to that.
               MR. KING:  The afternoon of July 11th is okay.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  We have to coordinate it with
     the Chairman of the committee so that the P&P subcommittee
     meeting --
               MR. KING:  We come to you again on the 12th as a
     full committee, but we only have two hours.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  It's out of the question.  We
     have to get into it in more detail.  I mean, this is one of
     the major changes in the regulation.
               So let's say until we settle it with Dr. Powers,
     that the 11th, which is a week from this coming Tuesday,
               MR. KING:  Right.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  We'll try to find a block of
     four hours or so.
               DR. SHACK:  That's Tuesday afternoon.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Tuesday afternoon, so that
     members can fly down in the morning.  The ones who are
     members of P&P will have to come Monday night anyway.  Does
     Noel know that?
               MR. MARKLEY:  Noel is going to check with Dana
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Yes, but he should propose that
     the P&P be in the morning.
               MS. DROUIN:  At this meeting, George, are you
     looking for more a round tabletop discussion where you would
     just be walking through and giving us --
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  I'm sorry, Mary.  What did he
     just tell us?  1:00 for us.
               MR. MARKLEY:  1:00 for us.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  I'm sorry.  Go ahead.
               MS. DROUIN:  Are you more interested in just
     sitting down and going through the report and having more of
     a roundtable discussion or us preparing a formal
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Well, you must have presented
     this to other people.  I don't want you to spend extra time
     preparing.  I mean, it's always helpful if you guide the
     discussion by a set of viewgraphs, but if you have to start
     from scratch, no.
               MR. KING:  We could take previous viewgraphs and
     hit the high points.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  The things that you have used
     already, because we can always go page by page.
               DR. BONACA:  Actually, you have a number of charts
     in the report.
               MR. KING:  Yes.
               DR. BONACA:  That you can push that out and we can
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  But a lot of this stuff I see
     for the first time, like the prioritization decision tree. 
     In fact, we will ask the whole committee to come.  This will
     be a subcommittee with the full committee present.
               MS. DROUIN:  I think we ought to give them the
     more updated version.
               MR. KING:  There obviously isn't much time.
               MS. DROUIN:  George, as Tom had pointed out, this
     has been a living document.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Exactly.
               MS. DROUIN:  And we have been receiving comments
     and as we have received them, we have been updating it.  I
     think it would probably help for you to not -- we can get it
     to you this afternoon, right away, the more updated version.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  If I can get it this afternoon,
     that's fine with me, because I'm going out of the country
     this weekend.
               MS. DROUIN:  We can give it to you.  In fact, I
     have one right here, I can get it copied right away.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Are there dramatic changes? 
     Because I've marked this up.
               MS. DROUIN:  In terms of the basic framework,
     those figures, no, but chapter five, which talks about the
     implementation, the prioritization and everything, that has
     changed quite a bit.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  So the members who have not read
     it have an advantage here.
               DR. BONACA:  Well, we'll need to see it sometime
     next week.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Yes.  So I think it's a good
     idea.  Tuesday.
               MS. DROUIN:  I can give it to you right now.  I
     have it right here in front of me.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Tuesday, I hope Dana will agree.
               MR. KING:  So we'll plan July 11th, in the
     afternoon then.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Let's plan on that, until we
     hear from Dr. Powers.
               MR. KING:  And you'll probably get -- maybe touch
     on some of the framework issues today as we go through
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Of course.
               MR. KING:  All right.  For the record, we have put
     on the front slide the primary participants who have been
     working on the 50.44 issue.  They're not all at the table.
               With me at the table, for the record, my name is
     Tom King, from the Office of Research; John Lehner, from
     Brookhaven National Laboratory; Mary Drouin, from the
     Research staff; Trevor Pratt, from Brookhaven; and, Allen
     Camp, from Sandia.
               As I said, we're not asking for a letter at this
     point. This is a status report.  We're going to focus on
     50.44 and we're going to touch on some of the potential
     issues that will probably be in the paper that goes up to
     the Commission in August.
               Some are policy, some are technical, but even the
     technical ones even have some policy nature.
               So any thoughts you folks have on issues would be
     very useful to get today, so we can start to formulate them
     for the paper.
               Stakeholder input.  One question we had gotten was
     that you were interested in talking about the January 19
     letter we got from Joe Colvin of NEI.  It basically came in
     and reported the results of a survey that NEI had taken of
     the industry.
               It was an attempt to give us some information on
     their priorities and potential cost savings associated with
     risk-informed changes they'd like to see, and that would
     help us prioritize our activities.
               We did get the letter.  We basically found it
     matched up pretty well with the priorities we had already
     come to from our own thinking and previous discussions among
     ourselves and with industry folks.
               We had also gotten a letter dated April 18 from
     Steve Floyd to myself, with a lot of comments on the
     framework document.  If you don't have that, I've got a copy
     here you can have.  You do have it?
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Yes.
               MR. KING:  Okay.  And as I said, tomorrow we're
     meeting with NEI on the comments in that letter.
               We had responded to the Colvin letter.  It was
     just a short response thanking them for their input and
     recognizing that the main points in their letter we were
     accommodating as part of our framework and option three
               That's all I really intended to say about the
     January 19 letter.  I don't know if you have any other
     specific points you want to get into.
               DR. KRESS:  I had, I guess, a question.  The 19th
     letter had some associated cost-benefit savings that NEI had
     gotten from their survey.
               MR. KING:  Yes.
               DR. KRESS:  Do you have any plans for using those
     numbers in any way in this process?
               MR. KING:  I think those numbers will certainly
     help us in trying to prioritize our work.  If we see
     regulations that look like they would have a large
     cost-benefit impact associated with them, they may go more
     toward the top of the list of things we work on first.
               DR. KRESS:  But they won't be used -- I think
     prioritization --
               MR. KING:  That's not the only factor.
               DR. KRESS:  Prioritization is a good thing to use
     them for, but I was concerned that you may have some sort of
     an inverse backfit part of your system that has as
     cost-benefit type of --
               MR. KING:  We're going to get to that issue when
     we get to the slides.
               DR. KRESS:  You wouldn't use those numbers for
     that, though.
               MR. KING:  If we do some sort of reverse backfit
     test, those numbers could be useful.  But whether we do one
     or not is an issue at this point.  I was going to talk about
     that when we get to another slide.
               DR. KRESS:  I'll wait.
               MR. KING:  In terms of prioritization, I mean,
     clearly safety is the first factor.
               DR. KRESS:  Of course.
               MR. KING:  If we go through a risk-informed look
     at something and there's a safety issue that really goes to
     the to of the list.  But then there's other factors to sort
     out the other things, and cost is one of them.    
               The other thing I want to mention, maybe you're
     not aware of, is some members of the Research staff had a
     meeting with Commonwealth Edison a week or so ago, June
     14th, actually, where Commonwealth Edison gave out quite a
     detailed list of changes that they feel could be made,
     risk-informed changes to the regulations, and cost savings
     associated with them.
               They went into more detail than the Joe Colvin
     January 19 letter.  If you are interested in that list, I've
     got a copy of it here.  You might find it interesting to see
     what they have to say.
               DR. UHRIG:  I don't think we have it.
               MR. MARKLEY:  What we have is a June 7 NEI letter.
               DR. BONACA:  That's right.
               MR. MARKLEY:  That's the latest thing you have.
               MR. KING:  This is the results of the June 14
     meeting, but it's publicly available.  This is an extra
     copy, if you want to take it.
               With that, I'm going to turn it over to Mary to
     talk about our approach and the alternatives we've come up
     with on 50.44.
               MS. DROUIN:  We weren't planning on getting into
     any of the details of the framework, but we wanted to talk a
     little bit about the framework, because it does establish
     our approach and how we came up with our options.
               We have developed a framework and in developing
     that framework, what we tried to do was blend the principles
     from Regulatory Guide 1.174 with the cornerstones that are
     outlined in the oversight program for safe nuclear power
     plant operation.
               So what we tried to do there was balance an
     accident prevention and accident mitigation to achieve a
     defense-in-depth approach in building the framework.
               The way we went about trying to achieve this
     defense-in-depth balance is that we defined four strategies
     in the framework and these four strategies were looking at
     limiting your initiating events, or limiting your core
     damage accidents, or limiting your radionuclide releases, or
     limiting your public health effects.
               And taking these strategies and this accident
     prevention and mitigation, we then came up with quantitative
     guidelines for these.  We only developed these quantitative
     guidelines to help us frame the options, such that when we
     come up with a risk-informed option, we wanted to make sure
     the option was neither too conservative, such that we were
     imposing undue conservatism or undue burden; at the same
     time, we wanted to make sure an option is not too relaxed.
               So whereas we don't expect to ever see this
     quantitative guidelines in a regulation, they're just
     helping us put it in the ballpark, such that we have
     achieved these strategies in maintaining our
               DR. KRESS:  Might those numbers appear in a reg
     guide or somewhere else?
               MS. DROUIN:  They could appear in a reg guide for
     -- and I'm going to get to that in one of our options on
               DR. KRESS:  At the moment, those numbers are
     intended to be means.
               MS. DROUIN:  Yes.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  I have two comments already on
     this.  I don't think that calling it balanced high level
     defense-in-depth really represents what you're doing and you
     say that also in the document, the approach recommended by
     the ACRS and adopted herein is a structure of this high
     level defense-in-depth approach.
               Well, the ACRS recommended the preliminary
     framework that also addressed what to do at lower levels,
     and you are very silent on this in this chapter two, to the
     point where one wonders have you rejected this or what do
     you plan to do at lower levels.
               But then you go to chapter four and on page 4-3,
     it says decisions regarding lower level defense-in-depth in
     the form of redundancy or diversity are generally well
     suited to this type of analysis, which is a PRA.
               I mean, you just said it was a PRA, that's what it
     refers to.  So I was wondering why you focus so much on high
     level defense-in-depth and you don't actually say this is
     defense-in-depth at the high level, rationalist at the lower
     level, except when the uncertainties are such that
     defense-in-depth must be invoked at lower levels, as well,
     as you strongly imply later that you're going to do.
               I mean, if I read chapter two, the only thing you
     are telling me is that at the high level, you are
     structuralist, and nothing on anything else.  But later on
     in the implementation, you say, no, no, no, we're going to
     use PRA at lower levels.
               I'm just wondering why that was --
               MS. DROUIN:  Are you disagreeing with what's later
     on in the --
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  I am not disagreeing.  I'm just
     wondering why you focus so much on the high level
     defense-in-depth and even in your title here says balanced
     high level.  What happens at lower levels?
               MS. DROUIN:  I think that is one of the comments
     from other people and from ourselves that we have noticed in
     the document is this inconsistency of things written in one
     part of the report and the other.
               That's not meant to be.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  No, I understand.  I'm just
     making the comment.  When I read it, I was wondering,
     because you talk about structuralist and rationalist, and
     they say we're going to apply structuralist at the high
               So I said, well, gee, on the next page they're
     going to tell me why rationalist at lower levels is a crazy
     idea, because they don't want to use it.  But you are
     completely silent.
               But then when it comes to chapter four, you are
     speaking about it matter of factly, yes, and we're going to
     do PRA evaluation.
               So I think it needs tightening up.
               MS. DROUIN:  Absolutely.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  I don't disagree with what you
               DR. KRESS:  You're not opposed to this high level.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  I just don't think this is what
     they're doing.  This is part of what they're doing.
               DR. KRESS:  It's part of what they're doing, yes.
               MS. DROUIN:  Yes.
               DR. KRESS:  But I would not have called this the
     structuralist approach.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  No.  It's the preliminary
               DR. KRESS:  I would call it the rationalist.  But
     I would have called that a rationalist approach there.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Well, because at the high level
     we impose the structuralist, without any reason.  What they
     call four strategies, that's what we do, too.  That's why
     it's preliminary.
               DR. KRESS:  I still disagree.  This is
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Because of the uncertainties at
     that level, but I think that's too subtle for most people. 
     Anyway, your name is on the paper.  You can't disagree.
               DR. KRESS:  It's too late to disagree.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  It's too late to disagree.  And
     the other thing is, which is related to what you said, I'm
     just limiting my comments on what you said, which brought --
     you really go out of your way in this document to tell
     people that one quantitative risk numbers will not appear in
     the regulations and you say that so many times, that there
     must be a reason behind it.
               So what is that reason?
               MR. KING:  That makes it risk-based.
               MS. DROUIN:  It makes it risk-based.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  If you use one number, it makes
     it risk-based?
               MR. KING:  Put the number in the regulation.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  The way you put it here, Tom, is
     that nothing that smells of frequencies will appear
     anywhere.  It's one thing to base everything on the QHOs and
     quite another to have such sweeping statements that the
     regulations will be deterministic.
               And the way I understood it, then, PRA will be
     used to rationalize why you go this way and that way.  But
     it seems to me that in some instances, you may have to use
     unavailabilities or something.
               You are saying no, no -- that's a no-no.  Would
     that make it risk-based if you use the little number here
     and there?
               MR. KING:  If we start putting risk numbers,
     whether they're core damage frequencies or reliability
     numbers or something in the regulations, our view is, yes,
     that makes it risk-based, because then that becomes the sole
     factor on which you make your decision.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  No, because the oversight
     process uses performance indicators and explains to us that
               MR. KING:  But they're not in the regulations. 
     We're talking about the regulations.  Reg guides are a
     different story.  SRPs are a different story.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Reg guides are not regulations.
               MR. KING:  Reg guides are not regulation.  Reg
     guides are one way to meet the regulations, one acceptable
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  It's just that you say it so
     many times in such a definitive way, that I thought there
     was something behind it.
               MR. KING:  Maybe we over-emphasized a bit.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Yes, I think you did.
               MR. KING:  But the idea is --
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Heaven forbid if we become
     risk-based, a quarter of a page.
               DR. SHACK:  They keep getting advice from advisory
     committees to put numbers in, George.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Say it again.
               DR. SHACK:  They keep getting advice from some of
     their advisory committees to put numbers in, letters.
               DR. KRESS:  They continue to reject it.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Another thing is I don't know if
     -- it looks like the risk-based is really something that the
     agency must avoid at all costs.  I thought risk-informed was
     a good terminology that really reflected reality, but now it
     has come to the point where people say we're not going to do
     this because if we do, it's risk-based.
               In other words, it has become something to avoid
     at all costs.
               DR. KRESS:  I guess I would disagree that having
     actual risk numbers as targets makes it risk-based.  If you
     do all the other things, like defense-in-depth and deal with
     uncertainties and appropriate margins, also, then I think
     you can have numbers in there and call it risk-informed.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  I think so, too.  But anyway, if
     you tone down the document here.  It appears like you're so
     sensitive to that.
               MR. KING:  I mean, we don't want it so slanted
     that -- we're sensitive.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  I mean, we are sensitive people. 
     Allen, you wanted to say something a half an hour ago.
               MR. CAMP:  I forgot what it was.
               DR. KRESS:  We talked you out of it.
               DR. SHACK:  One comment we made before was that
     these were PWR numbers and they're not really BWR numbers. 
     You end up with LERF about the same range, but at least
     looking at the IPEs, these look like sort of unrealistic
     expectations for conditional containment probabilities for
               MR. KING:  They are really numbers that come out
     of the Commission's 1990 SRM that told us how to implement
     the safety goal, that laid out the ten-to-the-minus-four CDF
     and the LERF we derived working backwards from the QHO. 
     You're right, we haven't tried to distinguish between B's
     and P's and that's certainly an issue in implementing it
     that we're going to have to deal with.
               But they're intended to be a generic set for both.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  One last comment, because I
     think it's relevant to what's coming.
               The document 00-0086, well, gee, you know, today
     we have 00-02, now we have 00-0086.
               DR. KRESS:  007.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Yes.  A lot of zeroes.  This
     document proposes a framework and then it goes on to propose
     some target numbers for containment, the right frequencies,
     and so on.
               Now, this is intended to be used by the regulator,
               MS. DROUIN:  Yes.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  And I was wondering -- and,
     again, I don't have a position on this, but I think it's
     something that needs to be aired.
               The QHOs were always intended to be goals, not
     measures of adequate protection or inadequate protection. 
     In other words, you can exceed them and you can still
     provide adequate protection.
               Is it really appropriate for such fundamental
     documents to use the QHOs, something that is a goal and we
     know already 19 PWR units are above it?  Not the QHOs, but I
     mean the lower CDF.
               Is it appropriate to do that, Tom?  I don't know. 
     Or should we looking for something else?
               DR. KRESS:  George, I would prefer we not even
     discuss that subject anymore, because I like the idea of
     using those goals as guidance to guide the regulations, even
     though they may or may not represent adequate protection, as
     we know it, in terms of real numbers.
               Those are pretty good goals and I see very little
     wrong with them.  They're accepted.  And I think as a
     guidance, you're not going to -- you're not going to say you
     must meet these numbers.  That's why they're saying they're
     not going to put the numbers, partly why they're there, but
     they're going to use it to guide how they get the
     regulations and the regulations are going to be crafted in
     such a way that they won't exactly meet them.
               Some plants will do better and some plants may not
     do as good.  So I think it's a nice target to set when
     they're going to want to gauge how to write the regulations. 
     It avoids this issue of quantifying adequate protection and
     trying to put numbers in the thing.
               So I'm comfortable with it now and I kind of want
     to avoid even mentioning it anymore.  Go on and let's do it,
     because it does raise issues of are we ratcheting and are we
     doing --
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Well, that's exactly my concern. 
     But if we start using them in the regulations, before you
     know it, they will become measures of adequate protection.
               DR. KRESS:  That's what I would really -- I have a
     hidden agenda.  That's what I'd really like to have happen.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Well, my agenda is out in the
     open and I really don't think that would be appropriate.
               For example, I don't understand -- you just said
     that we can use those to write regulations and then we'll
     say, you know, gee, some of you guys will not meet it.  I
     don't understand that.
               I mean, if we write the regulations, then --
               DR. KRESS:  They'll meet the regulations, but they
     may not exactly meet those target values for the frequencies
     and the CDFs and things like that.  They'll be close enough
     -- if you do the regulations, it's good enough, but there
     won't be a direct one-to-one link between the --
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  There won't be a direct
     one-to-one link, but if we follow the framework and we have
     numbers for core damage frequency, conditional probability
     of containment failure and so on, and we write the
     regulations that way, then eventually they will meet those,
     because the regulations will be a coherent code.
               DR. KRESS:  I say good.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  I realize that, but the question
     is whether you want this to be a measure of adequate
               MR. KING:  No.  No.  The issue you're talking
     about is going to have to be discussed in the August paper
     and the Commission is going to have to buy into using the
     safety goals as the measure of how far we want to go in
     risk-informing things.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  I think that we are using the
     safety goals because that is what's available, correct? 
     It's a number that's available.
               MR. KING:  It's what is available.  It avoids
     having to deal with the question of defining adequate
     protection, which, in my view, isn't necessary for
               DR. KRESS:  And it gives you an idea of what a
     proper balance might be based on tradition.
               MR. KING:  And it reflects the Commission's --
     remember, the safety goal policy statement is a statement of
     the Commission's expectations of the safety they'd like to
     see achieved.
               DR. KRESS:  It has a lot to --
               MR. KING:  If that's what they want to see
     achieved, it would seem reasonable to me that we proceed
     down a path that lays out a framework to achieve that.  And
     maybe it won't pan out in all cases for cost-benefit reasons
     or something, but why not aspire to that?
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  I can see this ratcheting up the
     regulations down the line.
               MR. KING:  That's another issue.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  So I really think -- and I'm
     glad you said that you will raise the flag to the Commission
     to think about it.
               DR. KRESS:  But risk-informed regulations are
     going to be voluntary, right?
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Yes, that's right.  Okay.
               DR. SHACK:  And the proposed rule will have to
     meet a backfit rule.
               DR. KRESS:  I think it's entirely appropriate that
     they use these.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  This is something that I think
     we should discuss at the subcommittee meeting.
               DR. KRESS:  Yes, we ought to.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Which I was informed will be at
     1:00 on Tuesday, July 11th.
               DR. KRESS:  Okay.  And you put that on the
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  That will certainly be on the
     calendar and see how we can approach it.
               DR. KRESS:  Sure.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Because it may be that you put a
     few qualifiers there and then the concern goes away.  But I
     don't think we should just matter of factly pick up those
     numbers and just run with them and starting writing the
     regulations.  I just don't think so.
               MR. KING:  It's clearly a policy issue, in my
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Yes.  It's a policy issue and
     before the decision is made, I think the decision-makers
     should be informed what the concerns are.
               MR. KING:  Okay.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Of the various agendas we have. 
     Maybe a three-vision approach may be useful.
               MR. KING:  Shades of gray, maybe.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Shades of gray are working very
     well.  See, if you look at the ASME thing, I think now the
     categories make much more sense to me.
               MS. DROUIN:  Are you ready?
               DR. SHACK:  Category one plants and category two
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Yes.
               MS. DROUIN:  In looking at our approach, there's
     three major steps.  The first one, of course, is selecting
     what regulation to risk-inform out of 10 CFR 50.
               What we have done to date is that we have
     performed a core screening and we're going through our
     prioritization.  The core screening, first, just looked at
     whether or not the regulation dealt with accident prevention
     and accident mitigation and if it did, then it was a
     candidate for risk-informing regulation, and then we started
     going through the prioritization.
               And in going through the prioritization, the first
     thing we would look at once it was a candidate, is it even
     warranted to risk-inform the regulation.  What we mean by
     that is in looking at the regulation, if you risk-informed
     it, were you going to be able to gain any safety benefit,
     was there any conservatism in that regulation, was there any
     excess burden.
               And if you weren't going to gain any safety
     benefit and there wasn't any conservatism and there wasn't
     any excess burden, then it would be eliminated further.
               Then in further prioritization, the next thing
     that we would look at is what was the safety significance of
     that regulation, and then looking at what the resources it
     would take to risk-inform and then also looking at the
     potential for reducing any unnecessary burden.
               And taking these factors into account, 50.44 fell
     out as a very high priority and that was the one that we
     identified as the first in what we're using as our test case
     against the framework.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  You didn't know that, Bob?
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Excuse me?
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  This morning you said you didn't
     know what the staff was doing.  They are telling us this is
     the test case.  Is that consistent with what you said this
               MR. CHRISTIE:  They're testing against the
               MR. MARKLEY:  Microphone, please.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  This is Bob Christie, Performance
     Technology.  The staff, in option three, is testing the
     framework with respect to 50.44.  In my comments to you on
     March 1st, we vehemently disagreed with the framework that
     has been outlined in the February meeting to us.
               The framework has changed.  We don't see that the
     changes have been any for the better and they can go on
     having this very complicated framework document that they
     can test any regulation about to infinity and that will be
     their objective.
               Our objective is to make the regulations more
     effective and efficient and we don't need this framework and
     testing out 50.44, in the petition we submitted or I
     submitted or any submits, against this framework seems to us
     to be kind of an academic exercise that doesn't move
     anything towards decisions to make the regulations more
     effective and efficient.
               Just flat, hey, we're now shooting for how safe is
     safe enough, is adequate protection, just blows my mind.  It
     just absolutely is crazy.
     If that's what we're fighting for, you know, you talk about
     this being voluntary, you want to say how safe is safe
     enough is now adequate protection, you just carry on with
     voluntary efforts, if that's the framework and that's the
     decision criteria.
               MR. KING:  That's not what we said.  We're not
     equating how safe is safe enough to adequate protection.
               MR. CHRISTIE:  Again, this is Bob Christie.  I
     heard that we are going to aspire at writing the regulations
     to achieve the levels as set forth in the safety goals,
     which are, as far as I can tell, in the June 11 or whatever,
     the June 1990 memorandum was, from the Commissioners to the
     staff, was very clear that the safety goals were how safe is
     safe enough, the point at which even backfit was not to be
               Aspiring to them and using those as the guides and
     the criteria for the regulation, to me, look like you're
     moving the rules to how safe is safe enough.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  And this is certainly something
     that we'll discuss on July 11th.  Anyway, thanks for the
               MS. DROUIN:  In developing our options, we took
     two different paths to come up with the options.  The first
     was to look at the current requirements and to risk-inform
     the requirements.  The other path to come up with options
     was to start with a blank piece of paper, look at the threat
     or the concern and if you started with a blank piece of
     paper, what requirements would you come up with, and then
     that would give us the pool of options and then based on
     those options, we would come up with alternatives for a
     risk-informed 50.44.
               In going down the path of looking at the current
     requirements, what we would do and what we have been doing
     on 50.44 is to go back and look at those requirements and
     look at what was the technical bases of those requirements,
     look to see how those requirements were implemented by the
     licensees, identify any related regulations in the
     implementing documents, because one of the biggest things
     that we have learned is you can't take these things in
               A lot of the problems that you have with a
     particular regulation is not so much in the regulation
     itself, but it comes out perhaps in a related regulation or
     in the implementing documents.
               And then start doing a risk evaluation of that and
     coming up with options.  We'll get through this more as we
     get into 50.44.
               Once we have identified the alternatives, then I
     do an evaluation to try and prioritize those.  In this
     particular prioritization, what we would do is look at both
     the impact to the NRC and the impact to the licensees.
               In looking at the NRC, we would look at such
     things as is it going to require a rule change, what would
     be the impact of doing this on other regulations and
     implementing documents, would we have to modify them, would
     we need to create perhaps some new regulatory guides, what
     would be the extent of regulatory analysis that we would
     need to do.
               If the alternative would require some submittal
     from the licensee, what would be the extent of NRC review,
     what would be the impact on inspection.  These are just some
     of the factors that we would take into account in trying to
     prioritize the regulation.
               Also, of course, goes in there what the safety
     benefit would be.
               In looking at the licensee and the impact on the
     licensee, what would be the need for perhaps new or make
     modifications to the current design in place, looking at the
     need for analysis on the licensee's part, the impact on
     their maintenance and inspection activities, impact on
     technical specifications, impact on procedures and training.
               And here, again, are just some examples of the
     things that we would be looking at.
               Moving on.  I'm just going to quickly go through
     it, because hopefully we'll get, after this slide, right
     into 50.44, how this ties explicitly back to the framework
     and how we've used the framework to come up with our
     risk-informed options.
               First, starting with what is the concern that
     we're dealing with and how does this concern tie into the
     four strategies that are outlined in the framework.
               Is it dealing with accident prevention and
     mitigation and within those two things, is it dealing with
     just limiting the initiating events or is it dealing with
     limiting the accident sequences or is it dealing with
     limiting your radionuclide releases or is it dealing with
     the health effects.
               For example, on 50.44, the fact that we're dealing
     with the combustible gases, the strategy that is of concern,
     that it's tying directly to into the framework, is our third
     strategy of limiting your radionuclide releases, trying to
     contain your conditional containment failure probability.
               And then identifying that concern, the relative
     importance of that concern against the quantitative
     guidelines.  If, for example, and this is just hypothetical,
     if you look at this and you see from your risk insights that
     your conditional containment failure probability from this
     concern is -- say it's extremely high, close to unity,
     that's identifying that this is a concern, this is something
     that the regulations ought to be dealing with.
               If you are on the other extreme and you're getting
     something that's, making up a fictitious number,
     1E-to-the-minus-four for your conditional containment
     failure probability, then you would question why are we
     regulating this.
               DR. KRESS:  Do you mean the contribution of that
     particular rule to the conditional containment failure
               MS. DROUIN:  The contribution of that concern.
               DR. KRESS:  That concern, I mean.  The concern you
     said here was containment failure.
               MS. DROUIN:  The concern is hydrogen combustion.
               DR. KRESS:  The concern is hydrogen combustion.
               MS. DROUIN:  So if I look at, if I'm going through
     and I'm looking at my risk insights --
               DR. KRESS:  Now, will you do this on a plant type
     by plant type basis?  Like you will look at it for -- I
     mean, will the rule apply to all plants across the board or
     would you look at the ice condenser separately from --
               MS. DROUIN:  Both, both.
               DR. KRESS:  -- BWRs?
               MS. DROUIN:  Both.
               MR. KING:  You will see the alternatives.  Some
     are broader that apply generally and some are the specific
     like the current rule, but modified to reflect risk
               DR. KRESS:  So you might have this rule written
     differently for ice condensers as opposed to large drys.
               MS. DROUIN:  Absolutely.
               DR. KRESS:  Okay.
               MS. DROUIN:  So you would look at the specific
     containment types, but you would also look at it
               And then once you've identified whether or not
     this is a concern that should be in the regulations, then in
     developing the options, we would look and make sure that a
     single class doesn't contribute more than ten percent to
     that guideline.
               DR. KRESS:  Now, that's a very interesting number.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  That's a Sizewell guide.
               DR. KRESS:  It's the rule of ten, which is a nice
     rule to use when you have to pick something out of the air,
     which is basically what you have to do.  It's a policy type
               But I guess I wanted to ask, could you have an
     additional line there and say "or" more than ten percent to
     the uncertainty?
               MS. DROUIN:  In doing that, you would have to
     account for the uncertainty in there.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  To the standard deviation.
               DR. KRESS:  Or to the standard deviation or
     something like that.
               MS. DROUIN:  Yes.
               DR. KRESS:  Could you have an additional -- that
     would help me a little, because it ties into my concept of
     what defense-in-depth is related to uncertainties.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  I have a number of comments on
     this.  First of all, I don't know that you can separate the
     variance from the mean, because if you reduce -- you see,
     these are wide distributors.
               If you reduce the high tail, the mean also moves.
               DR. KRESS:  Sometimes.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  So clearly it's something we
     have to understand.
               DR. KRESS:  But you need to understand the point
     with the uncertainties, too.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  The other point I want to make
     is this is really a defense-in-depth structuralist kind of
     approach, because you're just declaring it ten percent.  I'm
     wondering why.
               I agree with what you said earlier that you will
     have defense-in-depth at the top level, but what is it -- or
     maybe it's  rationalist view here.
               DR. KRESS:  It's a rationalist view, in my
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Realize that the uncertainties
     are very large at the accident sequence level and you want
     to take a defense-in-depth measure to handle those, and that
     is that no single class should contribute more than ten
               You could rationalize it that way.
               DR. KRESS:  I'm not sure I know exactly what they
     mean by accident class here.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  I think they mean the initiator.
               DR. KRESS:  The frequency range of initiators.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Yes.  In other words, I think
     they define it here.
               DR. KRESS:  It could be different kinds of
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  There is a definition here that
     these must have --
               DR. KRESS:  But what you do when you do that is --
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  -- similar physical
               DR. KRESS:  -- you lump into an accident class
     different kinds of sequences, which bothers me, to some
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Like small LOCA will be one
               DR. KRESS:  No, I don't think so.  Those
     initiators of frequencies within certain ranges are a class.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  No.  That's not --
               DR. KRESS:  That's not what you mean.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  No.
               MR. KING:  No.
               DR. KRESS:  You actually mean the traditional
     sense of --
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Small LOCA.
               DR. KRESS:  Okay.  Then I'm not bothered by it.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Physical and chemical
               DR. KRESS:  Okay.  I'm not bothered by it then.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  These are not the categories
     that they have in the framework.
               DR. KRESS:  They're not related to these
     categories.  Okay.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Infrequent events.
               MS. DROUIN:  That's right.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  But, again, maybe you want to
     think a little bit about it and the rationalization here of
     the framework.
               MR. KING:  Yes.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Also, it appears -- I think it
     should be given more prominence.  I think all the
     defense-in-depth measures you are taking in this framework
     should be collected in one place.
               DR. KRESS:  I do, too.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  And justified.
               DR. KRESS:  And this is, in my mind, a
     defense-in-depth --
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  I have an agenda, too, by the
               DR. KRESS:  -- issue there.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  If you justify them in terms of
     uncertainty, the whole document is rationalist.
               DR. KRESS:  I agree.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  And I think this clearly will be
     justified on the basis of uncertainty.
               DR. KRESS:  Absolutely.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  You're talking about things that
     are so uncertain.
               MR. KING:  The Commission asked us to come back
     and present to them what is our definition of
     defense-in-depth and collecting all of this in one place, we
     are going to have to do that.  You'll see it show up on the
     issues slide as something we're going to have to lay out so
     that they don't have to search for it here and there in the
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Also, you really don't -- this
     is too important, it seems to me, to talk about it matter of
     factly somewhere there.       
               But I think you can clearly justify just about all
     the defense-in-depth measures you have here using the
     arguments based on uncertainty, even the high level.
               DR. KRESS:  I would attempt to do that.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  And that would be a significant
     step over the rational --
               DR. KRESS:  It would be a wonderful step, George.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  I knew you would agree.
               DR. KRESS:  Yes.  Okay.
               MS. DROUIN:  Okay.  Now, we're going to get
     explicitly into 50.44.  When you just look at 50.44 itself
     and not any related document, any related regulation or
     related regulatory guide or something and just look at the
     specific requirements, what I have here is that there are
     both analytical requirements and what I call physical
     requirements in 50.44.
               When you look at the analytical requirements, it's
     telling you to deal with a postulated LOCA.  For some
     containment types, you go to a degraded core accident.
               It specifies the combustible gas.  It's just
     hydrogen, and the source is from the fuel cladding
     oxidation.  The amount, there's two different amounts you
     have to deal with, depending on the containment type.  I've
     just quickly abbreviated here.  One is a five percent versus
     a 75 percent metal-water reaction.
               When you get into the physical requirements, what
     I call physical requirements, there's six of them.  You have
     to measure your hydrogen concentration, ensure your mixed
     atmosphere, control your combustible gas concentrations, and
     those are applying across all your LWRs.
     The last three, inerting your MARK 1 and 2 containments,
     installing the high point vents, that's for all light water
     reactors, and installing your hydrogen control system, your
     igniters, for your MARK 3's and your ice condensers.
               So at a high level, those are the requirements,
     the specific technical requirements.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  When was this rule passed?
               MS. DROUIN:  There were three stages.  You had the
     original, then you had a 1981 amendment, and then you had a
     1985 amendment.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  The original is from?
               MS. DROUIN:  1979.  That's right, 1979.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  So it was a TMI type.
               MS. DROUIN:  Right.  The 1981 --
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Oh, just before.
               MS. DROUIN:  Right.  And then the 1981 was a TMI
     update, response to TMI.
               DR. KRESS:  Are the requirements, either in this
     particular regulation or in some other?
               MS. DROUIN:  No.  These are --
               DR. KRESS:  These are in .44.
               MS. DROUIN:  -- specific in 50.44.
               DR. KRESS:  Are there requirements elsewhere --
               MS. DROUIN:  I'm going to get to that.
               DR. KRESS:  -- that ask for purge and vent
               MS. DROUIN:  I'm sorry.  Purge and vent is part of
     the control of combustible gas concentration.  You need to
     do the recombiners or the purge and vent.
               DR. KRESS:  Or the purge and vent.
               MS. DROUIN:  Yes.
               MR. KING:  The rule doesn't say have recombiners. 
     It just says be able to control post-LOCA control and some
     plants have chosen to do the purge event.
               DR. KRESS:  Okay.
               MS. DROUIN:  Okay.
               DR. KRESS:  But that's part of this rule here.
               MR. KING:  Yes.
               MS. DROUIN:  Yes.  When you look at how the
     licensees have complied with 50.44, what I've noted on the
     left side are just the physical requirements, and when you
     look at the predominant means of compliance, you see some
     difference between what you saw in the previous slide and
     this slide.
               For example, the physical requirement was just to
     measure hydrogen concentration.  That's all 50.44 required
     you to do.  The way licensees have complied with that is to
     install safety-grade continuous hydrogen monitors.
               And as you go down, you'll see the same type of
     thing, against some of those requirements, that it doesn't
     match up directly to 50.44, and there's reasons for that and
     that's where we get into why you cannot look at a regulation
     in isolation.
               You have to see all the tentacles and look below
     the surface.  I haven't listed them all here.  It's quite
     extensive.  I've only pulled out three just for an example.
               One regulation that's tightly tied to 50.44 is
     Appendix E to Part 50, the emergency planning and
     preparedness for production utilization facilities.  This
     one is requiring your continuous hydrogen monitoring for
     your emergency response data system.
               When you go to 50.46(b), it's specifying your
     maximum hydrogen generation and postulated LOCAs for the
     purpose of complying with your ECCS acceptance criteria. 
     That's getting into the five percent.
               When you look at Reg Guide 1.97, that's what is
     imposing the safety grade.  So, again, I have just listed
     three of them here, but there's a lot of other regulations
     that are tied to this, 50.34 is another one.  There's other
     regulatory guides.
               So as we talk about risk-informing 50.44, we're
     also talking about perhaps having to change other
     regulations and other documents if you want to receive the
     complete benefit.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  That's a purely administrative
     issue.  It's not that these other regulations bring some
     other aspect of the accident or some other accident depends
     on this that we have to deal with.  It's just
               I mean, somebody decided that hydrogen control is
     important and then that thought is reflected in a number of
               Is that a correct statement?
               MS. DROUIN:  In a simplistic answer, yes, but not
     always necessarily so, because it might be in another
     regulation for something totally different.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  In a different context.
               MS. DROUIN:  Yes.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  But in this context, the three
     examples you gave us, it seems to me, they all stem from the
     fact that somebody decided this is important and now it's
     reflected in emergency planning.
               MS. DROUIN:  Right.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Core cooling design.
               MR. SIEBER:  Well, 50.46(b), that's an input
     assumption to the calculation that establishes the final
     acceptance criteria.
               MS. DROUIN:  Right.
               MR. SIEBER:  So that one is different than the
     other tow.  The other two, to me, seem to be administrative. 
     Somebody here in White Flint wants to know what your
     hydrogen is during an accident.  That's why it's on ERDS.
               And it's in Reg Guide 1.97 because it's in ERDS,
     part  of emergency planning, and because the rule existed in
     the first place, 50.44.
               So to me, 50.46(b) is different because then you
     have to recalculate to see if you continue to comply with
     the final acceptance criteria under Appendix K.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  There is a technical reason for
     50.46(b) in terms of the cladding integrity, coolable
     geometry, actually.
               DR. BONACA:  I think what you're trying to say is
     that in some cases, it may not be only a threat of issue. 
     There is some other type of technical reasons for having the
     requirement.  Is it true?
               MS. DROUIN:  Yes.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Yes.
               MS. DROUIN:  Now, when you start looking at going
     back and trying to pull your insights, your risk insights
     out to see what risk-informed 50.44 or how would you create
     a risk-informed regulation that deals with combustible
               When you start looking at your PRAs and you start
     looking at your core damage and your core melt accidents,
     the first thing that comes out is that the combustible gases
     that can challenge your containment integrity are not
     limited to hydrogen.
               You have both hydrogen and your carbon monoxide
     that you need to deal with and also the sources for these
     are not just limited to your fuel cladding oxidation.  You
     also need to take into account your core-crete interaction.
               One thing I might point out here is that in terms
     of your core-crete interaction, that is highly a function of
     what concrete you use.  If you're using basalt concrete,
     then you aren't getting your carbon monoxide generation.
               Also, you're generating these combustible gases,
     both in the early stages of the accident and in the late
               So in dealing with trying to control your gases,
     you have to look at the whole timeframe.  You can't just
     limit yourself to the early parts of the accident.
               When we start going through the history of our
     PRAs and the insights coming from the PRAs, starting with
     WASH-1400, is the biggest insight that came out of there, of
     course, is that LOCAs are not the only thing you have to
     deal with.
               You have other accidents that are contributing and
     you're getting hydrogen generation, you're getting
     combustible gases from these others, and when you
     particularly look at WASH-1400, it did predict a fairly high
     conditional containment failure probability from hydrogen
               Even though it wasn't the dominant contributor, it
     was a dominant one.
               You then had the Three Mile Island accident, which
     generated the start of the severe accident research program. 
     Primarily what this program did was confirm the importance
     of your hydrogen, your hydrogen combustion, and the way
     that, when you look at the first -- the 1981 amendment and
     the 1985 amendment and the things that were put into place
     to control these, that these were the right measures in
     dealing with it.
               When we move on to --
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Now, has anyone questioned these
     findings from the industry?  This is all NUREGs and
     NRC-sponsored projects, but I'm sure the industry has done
               MS. DROUIN:  We're going to get into some industry
     stuff here, too, on the next one.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  You will.  Okay.
               MS. DROUIN:  I couldn't fit it all on one slide.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  So it just happened randomly
               MS. DROUIN:  Now I'm going chronologically.  The
     next big risk study that came out was NUREG-1150.  It pretty
     much still confirmed the same thing.  You had other
     accidents that were contributing to your core damage.
               Hydrogen combustion was a dominant contributor and
     that the new thing was that hydrogen combustion was not a
     challenge to your large volume containments.
               MR. SIEBER:  That's based on the assumption that
     you use ultimate strength as opposed to design strength.
               MS. DROUIN:  Yes.
               MR. SIEBER:  And the ultimate strength, as I
     picture it, has tremendous uncertainty associated with it.
               MS. DROUIN:  That's correct.
               MR. SIEBER:  And that's why you don't design
     bridges to the ultimate strength.
               MS. DROUIN:  That is accurate.  Let me move on to
     the next set of PRAs that came out, which are our IPEs, and
     you look at the insights that were documented in NUREG-1560,
     again, you still see a wide range of accident initiators are
     A thing that came out of here which we also saw in
     NUREG-1150 was that your hydrogen combustion or station
     blackout accident sequences was a significant contributor to
     containment failure for your MARK 3's and your ice
     Those two little -- those last words got left off the slide,
     but that's very important, because these refer to your MARK
     3's and your ice condensers.
               Some more recent research that was going on
     related to the resolution of your DCH and this is a program
     that was looking at your challenge to containment integrity
     for just large drys and ice condenser containments for
     station blackout, and the information that's coming out of
     there is that hydrogen combustion can be a challenge to your
     containment integrity for ice condensers during SBO.
               DR. KRESS:  How is that related to DCH?  It's
     because it's putting the hydrogen combustion pressure on top
     of the DCH pressure or is it because you get additional
     hydrogen out of the DCH event?  I'm trying to figure out why
     that particular bullet is under the DCH issue resolution.
               MR. CAMP:  What happened is basically this study
     was done to look at DCH in ice condensers.  That was the
     driving purpose of the study.
               When they did the study, they concluded that the
     ice bed was going to be pretty effective in mitigating the
     DCH part of the event.
               But the calculations that they did accompanying
     this with the hydrogen source terms that they got from
     RELAP/SCDAP calculations and CONTAIN calculations to look at
     the containment load almost always produced containment
     failure from hydrogen.
               DR. KRESS:  So it was an ancillary result.
               MR. CAMP:  It was an ancillary result to the DCH
               MR. KING:  And remember in DCH there's a bunch of
     hydrogen that accumulates in the containment before the
     actual DCH event and it's that preexisting hydrogen plus the
     DCH --
               DR. KRESS:  Plus the pressurization, plus the
               MR. KING:  Yes.
               MS. DROUIN:  And the last point that we want to
     make is that as you go through and look at all these
     insights that have come from WASH-1400, 1150, the IPEs,
     they've all dealt with just internal events and when you
     start taking the fire and seismic into control, the
     accidents associated with those tend to have characteristics
     very similar to station blackout.
               So whereas you're getting station blackout to be a
     concern from your internal, it's even more important when
     you start taking into account fire and seismic.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Is this a good time to take a
     ten-minute break?
               MS. DROUIN:  Sure.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Back at two.
               MR. KING:  What time do you want us to finish up?
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Well, NEI needs about half an
     hour, they told me, and I'm leaving at three.  So can you
     finish in 15 minutes or is that too much to ask?
               MS. DROUIN:  Yes, we can.
               MR. KING:  We can.  I think most of the issues
     we've talked about, so the last two slides ought to go
     pretty quickly.  But we ought to just spend two minutes on
     the last two.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  I'm sorry.  We're back in
     session.  Are you disagreeing with Mr. Christie's evaluation
     or you are not even thinking at all in those terms?
               MS. DROUIN:  We're doing our own evaluation.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  I didn't say your own.  Mr.
     Christie's.  He presented to us his arguments why he thinks
     things should go a certain way in terms of the first four
     hours of the accident and after that and so on that it will
     distract the operators from other important things.
               So all this is in agreement with what he said or
     is there a disagreement?
               MS. DROUIN:  I think we're in very close
     agreement.  What we'll do, instead of going through each of
     the containment types, why don't we jump to slide 16.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Okay.  Good.  I like experienced
               MS. DROUIN:  The previous slides, it just goes
     into more detail, containment type, what we learned from the
     various PRAs and research.
               If you jump to slide 16 and you summarize what
     we've learned and what conclusions did those insights lead
     us to, what we're saying here is that when you look at the
     results from these PRAs and from research, and you look at
     that relative to combustible gases and the potential for
     combustion and its challenge to containment integrity, what
     we have learned from that is that a risk-informed 50.44
     needs to have these kind of ingredients.
               In looking at the accident types, it needs to
     focus on what we would call the risk significant core melt
     accidents.  It shouldn't just deal with LOCAs or just the
     degraded part of the accident.  It should deal with the full
     accident and it should focus on those that are the risk
     significant ones.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Risk significant with respect to
     public health and safety?  What's risk significant for core
     damage is not necessarily significant for public health.
               MS. DROUIN:  Public health.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  And Mr. Christie emphasizes the
     fact that we should focus on public health and safety.  So
     when you say risk significant, you refer to those, as well.
               MS. DROUIN:  I'm talking about those that can
     challenge containment and that would lead to a large
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  So you're in agreement.
               MS. DROUIN:  Yes.
               DR. KRESS:  Is there any concept in here of
     containments leak and you put a hydrogen burn into it, that
     may increase that leak?  For two reasons; it may make the
     hole bigger and it may increase the pressure to the driving
               You don't calculate a containment failure, but
     there's some probability that you're increasing leak and
     you've got fission products that you're blowing out at a
     faster rate.
               It's generally a regulatory objective to limit
     that kind of release, although it's not a LERF, because it's
     not the kind of large early release.  It's a small early
               But is there any thinking in that, in
     risk-informing this, that you need to deal with those kinds
     of things, also?
               MS. DROUIN:  I wouldn't say directly, but
     indirectly it gets covered.  Bear with us and hopefully
     we'll answer it.
               The next major ingredient is what combustible
     gases do you concern yourself with, and you shouldn't just
     be limited to hydrogen, but also take into account your
     carbon monoxide and also looking at the sources, not
     limiting yourself to the fuel cladding, but also looking at
     core-concrete interaction, and the source terms should be
     based on realistic calculations.
               When you do the realistic calculation, you may end
     up at a 75 percent metal-water reaction.  It might be less
     than that or it might be more, but we would perform and come
     up with a specified term here.
               DR. KRESS:  Are there any core-concrete
     interaction sequences that contribute to LERF?  I'll ask
     Trevor, maybe, or you.  I don't know.  Is that a non-LERF
               MR. PRATT:  Maybe one or two in the boilers.
               DR. KRESS:  One or two in the boilers.
               MR. PRATT:  Not in the large volume containments.
               DR. KRESS:  But this sub-bullet is intended to
     look at it in context of LERF or just to look at it in
               MR. PRATT:  In terms of early and late.  It's a
     dominant contributor to late.
               DR. KRESS:  So you're not limiting this
     risk-informing just to early failures.
               MS. DROUIN:  No, and that's where we get into --
               DR. KRESS:  You're including late.
               MR. PRATT:  Yes.
               MS. DROUIN:  That's where we get into the next
     bullet, is that in controlling the combustible gases, you
     need to look at both the early phases and the late phases of
     the accident.
               DR. KRESS:  So it's not just -- so you can't just
     look at LERF.
               MS. DROUIN:  Correct.
               DR. KRESS:  Glad to hear you say that.
               MS. DROUIN:  Okay.  If you remember, earlier, we
     had said that 50.44 dealt with both what we call analytical
     requirements and physical requirements.  So when we look at
     the analytical requirements, we are saying that the
     analytical requirements, in going from what is currently in
     50.44, the changes that we think ought to be done, it
     should, again, account for your risk significant core melt
     core melt accidents.
               You need to account for your combustible gases
     generations from both your fuel cladding oxidation and your
     core-concrete, and specify the amount and rate of your
     combustible gas generation based on realistic calculations.
               So that matches up exactly to the previous slide. 
     These were things that were specifically called out in 50.44
     and these are how we would propose the alternative for the
     analytical requirements.
               When we get to the physical requirements, we've
     identified three alternatives.  The first alternative is
     taking the specific requirements from 50.44 and modifying
     them.  For example, eliminating the requirement for safety
     grade continuous monitors, add the capability to measure
     your hydrogen concentration under degraded core conditions,
     such that whatever instrumentation you had there, it would
     survive under high pressure, high temperature, whatever
     those conditions were.
               Insuring your mixed atmosphere for your risk
     significant accidents, whichever they are for your
     particular plant; eliminate your post-LOCA hydrogen control
     system, that would be your recombiners.  It would also be
     your vent and purge system.
     Adding a long-term hydrogen control for your risk
     significant core melt accidents and ensuring your hydrogen
     control for your risk significant core melt for your MARK
     3's and ice condensers.  These are lining up one to one to
     your six physical requirements.
               DR. KRESS:  Let me ask you about that first
     sub-bullet, eliminate the requirements for safety grade
     continuous monitors.  Is that based on some criteria that
     says that the risk achievement worth of being safety grade
     is not worth having them safety grade or is this an SSC
     that's low on your priority list for some criteria?
               MR. KING:  It's based on the fact that these would
     be used in an accident management situation and
     traditionally we have not required accident management type
     stuff to be the full pedigree safety grade.  It will be
     consistent with that approach.
               DR. KRESS:  Even though it might be a significant
     contributor to changing the conditional containment failure
     probability, you wouldn't.  If it had real significance
     there, you would still eliminate it.
               MR. KING:  See, you're not eliminating the
     requirement.  You're just saying it doesn't have to be
     safety grade in terms of --
               DR. KRESS:  It doesn't have to be safety grade.
               MS. DROUIN:  It doesn't have to be safety grade.
               MR. KING:  -- all the pedigree requirements that
     go with it.
               MS. DROUIN:  We still want you to measure, but we
     aren't going to be prescriptive that the way you go about
     measuring is that --
     DR. KRESS:  We were looking at what are the potential
     requirements for things to be safety grade or not safety
     grade not based on tradition, but if you had to do it again,
     and the concept was, well, if it had a pretty big
     contribution to RAW or Fussel-Veseley for either CDF or
     LERF, then maybe it ought to be called safety grade.
               But this is not the kind of criteria you used here
     at all.
               MR. KING:  No.
               MR. PRATT:  I was just going to add that the
     emphasis was moving away from it needed the continuous
     monitoring early to an accident management strategy later. 
     So that gets you away from having to have the information
     available for immediate responses, which we don't envisage
     there would be any.
               So it would be a long-term accident management.
               DR. KRESS:  Yes, but isn't it still needed or used
     in some of the emergency response criteria?  You use it
     there.  Wouldn't that call for sort of an early measure?  I
     thought it was one of the indicators that you use to decide
     on emergency response measures.
               MR. PRATT:  In that context, it certainly may be
     necessary.  In the context of what we're looking at here, in
     terms of hydrogen control, there's no immediate measures
     that we would need, we believe, that requires this
     information.  That's the point.
               But you certainly would probably want that
     information further, but for this particular --
               MR. SNODDERLY:  Excuse me, Dr. Kress.  This is
     Mike Snodderly, Probabilistic Safety Assessment Branch.  The
     other thing is early I think we would be relying more on the
     indicators of containment high range rad monitor and the
     core exit thermocouples and then supplemented by the
     hydrogen monitors as a confirmatory.
               As far as the emergency planning goes, right now,
     the way I see it, the way -- the biggest thing it's used for
     is distinguishing between a general emergency and a site
     area and is there a threat to the containment due to high
     hydrogen concentration.
               DR. KRESS:  You could almost infer that from the
               MR. SNODDERLY:  Right.  And I think we've
     adequately addressed that, as Bob Christie pointed out, in
     the ANO amendment, where we went from a -- we went to a
     performance-based requirement for hydrogen monitoring.
               DR. KRESS:  Thank you.
               MS. DROVIN:  The next alternative is one where we
     would eliminate all the physical requirements and replace it
     with a high level type of statement to control your
     combustible gases for all light water reactors for your risk
     significant accidents.  Under this alternative, we would
     leave it to the licensee to demonstrate how they would meet
     this requirement.  This is much more performance-based type
     of requirement.
               The licensee could come in and, say the way they
     meet that requirement is using the current physical things
     that are there in the plant now, or they could come in and
     do some type of analysis to show --
               DR. KRESS:  But when you looked at what they
     brought to you, you would probably take these bullets up
     above and say how did you deal with this, this.
               MS. DROVIN:  That could be one way.
               DR. KRESS:  It still would be the same
               MS. DROVIN:  Or they could come back in and show
     that they aren't challenging the containment through some
     type of analysis.  So, this would have a lot of flexibility
     in how they would go about doing it.  They could be very
     prescriptive, or they could come back more in an analytical.
               MR. KING:  This one has an attractive advantage
     for future plants.  It would give them a lot more
               MS. DROVIN:  Yes.
               MR. KING:  So, again, it depends on how much
     weight the Commission wants to put on current versus future
     plants.  It could drive, you know, some selection of one of
     these alternative over another.
               DR. KRESS:  Would you put an Appendix K like thing
     in there that says we want 95 percent confidence that you
     don't fail the containment?
               MR. KING:  Well, we'd have to specify what the
     performance is that we're looking for.
               DR. KRESS:  Yes.
               MS. DROVIN:  The third alternative, actually what
     it is is what you see, alternative two is kind of a mixture
     of alternative one and alternative three.  Alternative three
     is going to the strategies of the framework and
     demonstrating that you're meeting those strategies so that
     you would go through and demonstrate that your containment
     integrity is not challenged from your combustible gases or
     seeing an order of preference by limiting your radionuclide
     releases or your core damage accidents or the initiating
     events, or you come in and insure your emergency
               You would go in now into your regulatory guide,
     and this is where you might, for example, see numbers.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  I was about to say that.
               MS. DROVIN:  Yeah.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  But then wow, you would be risk
               MS. DROVIN:  No, it's not in the regulation.  It's
     in the regulatory guide.
               Then the last of this is that all of these options
     may require, you know, confirming changes in other
     regulations in order to get the full benefit.  So, that's an
     issue we would have to look at.    
               On that note, I'm going to get Tom wrap up.
               MR. KING:  Let me just take the last two minutes
     and talk about slide 20, some of the potential issues we're
     going to have to address in the August paper.  Selected
     implementation had been raised a couple of years ago when we
     were talking about risk informing Part 50.  I think it
     really boils down to all of these things are going to be
     voluntary alternatives, but does that mean you can pick,
     say, 5044, for example.  You can pick the current 5044, or
     you take a risk informed 5044, the total package, or should
     licensees be able to within the risk informed 5044 pick and
     choose the pieces they like that's going to effect --
               DR. KRESS:  How -- what are you going to use as
     guidance in deciding on this policy issue?  Is this one that
     you just allow the commissioners to say yes or no, or do you
     have some thoughts as to why one might want to allow
     selective implementation or why not?  What I had in mind
     there is is there some principle that if you allow selective
     implementation that you can pick this one, this one, and
     this one, and therefore, your risk status has changed to the
     point that it's unacceptable, or your uncertainty in that is
     unacceptable.  Is there some thinking about what you would
     use to, as a criteria, for deciding on selective
     implementation or not?
               MS. DROVIN:  I'm giving my personal thoughts here. 
     I think that if you allow selective implementation within a
     regulation, you're not risk informed because the risk inform
     is supposed to focus in on the risk significant.  In some
     cases, there may be cases where to be risk informed, it's
     just reducing things.  There may be cases, as you see in
     5044, to be risk informed, you're going to take some things
     away, but you're going to have to add some things.  There
     were things missing.
               DR. KRESS:  So, you're thinking it's either a
     whole package or not at all?
               MS. DROVIN:  And I think that if you allow
     selective implementation, then you would just go after those
     things that are going to reduce, but the things that were
     safety significant --
               MR. SIEBER:  Compensatory.
               MS. DROVIN:  -- may not be selected.  I don't
     think that's a risk informed regulation.
               MR. KING:  We have already said risk informed is a
     two-edged sword.  When you go in and, well, the risk
     information can lead you to --
               DR. KRESS:  I was assuming both edges of the sword
     would show up in each individual regulation, and I may be
     wrong there, so that I could choose this regulation, but I
     have to choose all of that particular regulation.  I get
     both ends of the sword there.
               MR. KING:  Yeah, yeah.
               DR. KRESS:  And then I would allow selective
     implementation because --
               MR. KING:  On a regulation by regulation basis.
               DR. KRESS:  Right, regulation by regulation basis.
               MR. KING:  Yeah, I think that's Mary's personal
     opinion is what she likes, and I think we're going to have
     to go to the Commission with a recommendation and talk about
     the criteria to why we picked that one, whatever it ends up
               MR. SNODDERLY:  Sorry, Tom.  I think, Dr. Kress, a
     concrete example of that would be the Mark 3 containments. 
     So, right now, we had igniters for Mark 3 containments, but
     from a risk study, we knew that 96 percent of the risk is
     from station black-out sequences.  So, the igniters aren't
     available during -- they're not there.  So, it doesn't make
     sense to say okay, we're going to risk inform this
     regulation, and the Mark 3 owners are going to say hey, you
     know what?  I like that I don't need recombiners, and that
     makes sense, but does it also make sense, as you've gone
     through this process to say, shall we continue to allow this
     anomaly to exist?
               Now, there's a lot of other things to consider,
     but I think like that's a hard example of what, you know,
     that we -- one example.
               MR. KING:  Okay, and it's related to the backfit
     question.  If you're going to do a backfit analysis, are you
     doing it piece by piece, or are you doing -- taking the
     whole rule as a package and doing the backfit and looking at
     the aggregate of how things come out.  Also, the backfit,
     one of the stakeholders raised the question of the reverse
     backfit test.  If we are, you know, ending up net burden
     reduction, should there be some, you know, tangible benefit
     in doing that?  Should there be some criteria for which to
     do that?  So, that's part of the issue when we talk about
               The risk informed guidelines we talked about,
     that's the issue of using the safety goals and the
     subsidiary objectives as the guidelines for making the
     changes.  I mean, that has to be a Commission decision
     versus future plants, how much weight do you give from one
     to the other.  Technical issues, long-term containment
     performance -- one of the NEI comments was they didn't think
     that ought to be a consideration.  We're going to talk to
     them about that tomorrow.
               Defense in depth, it's the issue, George, you
     talked about, rolling those considerations up as something
     the Commission can deal with is an issue.  Safety margins is
     the same thing, and treatment of uncertainties is tied in
     with that.  So, a number of things that we're going to have
     to lay in front of the Commission that aren't just unique to
     5044.  I mean, these things are generic to this whole risk
     informed process.
               With that, I think we've talked about the schedule
     already, so that's it.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Any questions?  Any comments
     from the members?
               DR. KRESS:  Well, I'd like to offer my
     encouragement to this framework.  I think they're going in
     the right direction.  You know, I may argue with some of the
     details right now, but yeah, I think it shows some good
     thinking and some good progress.  I like the approach, at
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Speaking of the approach, the
     three alternatives that you put up there, you will evaluate
     those in some way at some point, or are there preliminary
     alternatives?  Is that the idea?
               MR. KING:  Right now they're preliminary
     alternatives.  I think there's an open question.  We go to
     the Commission in August.  Do we recommend one of those, or
     do we recommend to the Commission that each of these has
     some merit, and maybe the next step ought to be an advance
     notice of proposed rulemaking to get feedback on those three
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Once you do any sort of analysis
     to --
               MR. KING:  Enough analysis to say that they're
     feasible.  We don't want to give the Commission unfeasible
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  No, they are feasible, but I
     mean, if I go with alternative two versus alternative three,
     what am I doing to the condition containment failure
     probability, for example?
               MR. KING:  Pros and cons kinds of things, yeah.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  You will do that kind of thing?
               MR. KING:  Yeah.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Quantitatively.
               MR. KING:  As best we can.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  As best as possible.  I knew
     that was coming.  Okay, thank you very much.  Any other
     comments?  No?
               DR. KRESS:  I also wanted to mention, I would hope
     at some point along the line that uncertainties get more
     explicitly built into the criteria.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  I think in the July subcommittee
     meeting, we'll probably have a lot to say about that.
               DR. KRESS:  Yeah.
               MS. DROVIN:  We skipped over that slide.
               DR. KRESS:  Yeah, okay.  Maybe so.  I'll look
     through your slides.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Well, I don't know whether we
     want to ask how this is affecting the rulemaking, but Mr.
     Christie requested.
               DR. KRESS:  Well, that wouldn't hurt to ask.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Whom do we ask?  Do we ask you
     or the NRR?
               DR. KRESS:  I think ask these people over here.
               MS. DROVIN:  Ask Cindi.
               MS. CARPENTER:  This is Cindi Carpenter from NRR. 
     Basically, we have the petition for rulemaking.  It was
     noticed, and we're waiting -- it basically is being
     incorporated into what they're doing in Option 3.  Option 3
     in 5044 is going to provide the technical basis for how we
     resolve that petition for rulemaking, so they're very well
     aware of what Mr. Christie has proposed, and we're waiting
     on the outcome of that right now.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  So, the technical basis you are
     referring to is the August document?
               MS. CARPENTER:  The August and probably the
     December document also, I'm thinking.
               MR. KING:  The August document --
               MS. CARPENTER:  The August, okay.
               MR. KING:  -- would be the one that deals with
     this issue.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Okay, thank you.
               DR. KRESS:  I'm glad to see the National
     Laboratories so well represented.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  So, the next presentation is
     from NEI, and it's on a different subject, 10 C.F.R. 50.69
     and Appendix T.
               DR. SHACK:  Option 2, Option 3, we cover
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Boy, this is a dynamite
     subcommittee meeting.  Mr. Floyd, would you introduce your
     colleagues, because we have not seen them before.
               MR. FLOYD:  Yeah, right.  To my left is Adrian
     Haymer, and to my right is Biff Bradley, all from NEI.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Wonderful.
               MR. FLOYD:  We're actually going to talk about two
     topics today.  We have some brief comments on Option 2, and
     we also have some brief comments on Option 3 to cover.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Very good.
               MR. FLOYD:  Okay, with respect to Option 2, just
     wanted to advise the committee here that we have submitted
     the PRA certification industry peer certification process to
     the Commission formally for review.  It's in a document
     called NEI-00-02.  All plants will be peer reviewed by the
     end of 2001.  Our status right now is that all the boiling
     water reactors have completed the peer certification
     process, and I don't know, maybe perhaps as many as 25
     percent of the PWR's at this stage, but they all are
     scheduled to be completed with their review by the end of
               DR. KRESS:  Is your intention to say that peer
     review would correspond to Category 2 or 3 in the ASME
     guide?  Say that you would like to say go through this peer
     review.  Then we correspond to Category 2 or 3, or are those
     completely separate?
               MR. FLOYD:  They're somewhat separate because we
     don't know what the final form of the ASME standard will be. 
     What we're saying and what we suggested in our letter is
     that the peer certification process is adequate and
     appropriate for Option 2 of risk informing Part 50.
               DR. KRESS:  Okay.
               MR. FLOYD:  It may comport with what the final
     ASME standard comes out with in one of the categories, but
     we don't know that at this point.
               MR. BRADLEY:  It's an application specific review.
               MR. FLOYD:  Yeah, and we're saying that only for
     this Option 2 application.
               DR. KRESS:  Okay.
               DR. SHACK:  Just, I got confused about this this
     morning.  Since you're not grading the whole PRA, you're
     doing it element by element, do I then get a list of
     elements that have to be grade three or above to support
     Option 2, or do I get an overall road map that really tells
     me now?
               MR. BRADLEY:  I think those are issues that we're
     going to get into when we get into the review process with
     NRC.  I think our initial thinking is, you know, there is no
     overall grade.  There's a grade on each sub-element, and
     generally speaking, I think we're talking about something,
     you know, for most of the sub-elements, a grade level three
     in the certification process to support Option 2.
               One of the things we've got to do is coordinate or
     correlate our Part 50 guideline document in that whole
     process with the certification process so that as we do
     that, it will become more clear which elements are most
     important.  I think the general thinking of what I saw from
     NRC, and probably we don't disagree, is that we're looking
     at a level three for most, if not all, of the sub-elements
     to support that.
               DR. KRESS:  My first thought, Bill, is I was going
     to find out, look and see how much -- which elements are
     more important, put a weighting factor on and take the
     grades and get an overall grade.  Anyway, they're probably
     doing something like that but not putting numbers on it.
               MR. FLOYD:  And I think the third bullet really
     goes to what we've been talking about, is at the meeting
     that we had this week, the NRC did lay out at least the
     outline of what the review process will be for the peer
     certification process.
               The other item we had down here, as you know, the
     South Texas nuclear project has an exemption request in, and
     of course, one of the concerns the staff has is how does
     that relate to the overall Option 2 generic rulemaking
     issue.  South Texas has prepared a matrix comparing their
     risk categorization and treatment process to the NEI
     guideline process approach.  We haven't had a chance to
     fully review that, but in general, it looks to be -- looks
     like they captured the essence of it.
               The conclusion we think we would agree with is
     that, although when you get down at the level of detail,
     their approach is a little bit different.  When you get at
     the how-to level, the concepts and the philosophy that are
     embedded in the guideline document are consistent with the
     approach that they had.  That wasn't by happenstance.  Of
     course, we were cognizant of what their approach was when we
     were developing the guideline document, as well as being
     cognizant of the ANPR and the SECY papers.  Our guideline
     document has been evolutionary to accommodate those changes
     as they've gone along.
               The other thing I wanted to say in general about
     Option 2 here is that, just give you an update on the pilot
     status.  NEI has been coordinating with the owners' groups a
     pilot project effort to test out a number of systems at lead
     plants in each of the owners' groups.  So far, the
     Westinghouse, BWR owners' group and CE owners' group have
     all now voted to fund a project.
               The scope of the projects are very similar in
     scope and schedule.  They will be starting roughly in the
     September time frame, late August, early September time
     frame, and having the preliminary bulk of the work done by
     around the end of the year and then writing up an evaluation
               All three owners' groups will be using the NEI
     guideline as their template for conducting their review to
     see what enhancements and revisions need to be made to the
     guideline document as we move forward.
               Some other Option 2 issues, we've identified a
     couple of issues, I think, the we would like to get an early
     read from a legal perspective.  The first one is the
     differentiation of design basis from special treatment.  Let
     me see if I can explain what we mean by that.  Take, for
     example, the environmental qualification rule.  We view that
     as a special treatment requirement.  We hear some in the
     staff say that no, part of the design basis is the specific
     special treatment requirements that are embedded in the 5049
     regulation.  That makes a big difference on how we write our
     guideline and what special treatment provisions you put in
     place, and also it makes a big difference as to what the
     bottom line benefit of Option 2 is, depending upon the
     resolution of that issue.
               So, we'd like to get a fairly timely read from the
     agency on what is their position with respect to the
     relationship between special treatment requirements and the
     design basis requirements.  Are they one and the same, or
     are your design basis requirements -- I mean, our view is
     that, for example, in the EQ area, if you have a pump that
     has to deliver 100 gallons per minute to each steam
     generator under a harsh environment, that's the design basis
     functional requirement.
               The special treatment regulation is the how do I
     provide that assurance that it can do that.  There may be
     other ways of providing them, and we're really talking about
     the RISC-3 category here, by and large, which is the low
     safety significant but safety related category.  Do you need
     that same degree of pedigree that's embodied in 5049 to
     provide a reasonable assurance that that design basis
     function is agreeing under those high energy line break
     conditions can be met.
               DR. KRESS:  It seems like if you're going to be
     risk informed, that that's the appropriate way to view it.
               MR. FLOYD:  Well, that's our view.  In fact, it's
     almost an oxymoron to say that if the intent of the Option 2
     approach is to grade the pedigree of treatment, but you
     can't do that because the pedigree of treatment is indeed
     part of the design basis, and you can't change the design
     basis, you, in essence, don't have an Option 2.  We just
     want to get it nailed down and get agreement on that.  We've
     heard conflicting opinions on that.
               The second issue is related to Part 21, and its
     applicability to really RISC-2 and RISC-3 boxes.  The
     position that we've taken in the guideline is that Part 21
     is certainly applicable to the RISC-1 box.  It's not
     applicable to the RISC-2 box because the RISC-2 box doesn't
     contain components that pass the definition of what is a
     basic component.  Our position in the RISC-3 box is that
     Part 21 also would not apply because the test in Part 21 is
     you have to have a substantial safety hazard as a result of
     the deficiency.     We're talking about items that if we
     have agreement on the risk categorization process, we've
     defined that if they were to have a problem, they don't
     create a substantial safety hazard.  So, that's our
     position, and we, again, would like to have an early-on
     legal read of that from the agency, again, because it has
     great bearing on how we develop our guideline document and
     the overall benefits of Option 2.
               Next issue we have is commercial treatment for the
     RISC-3 category.  This is where, obviously, all of the
     discussion or the bulk of the discussion has gone on to
     date.  We have provided in our early draft of our guideline
     to the staff what is known as an Appendix A, which they
     characterized earlier this week as a good outline of the key
     elements that should be in a commercial program.  The
     feedback we got was that they would like to see some
     additional detail in the document, not so much on the how to
     you provide, the assurance that the design basis function
     will be maintained, but what are the desired results and
     outcomes that you'd like to see from that.
               So, we're looking now to go back and see if we can
     add some more detail to the Appendix A that focuses on
     desired results outcomes, without getting into the how to. 
     This is the difficult road to walk down because we could
     very easily wind up replacing 18-point criteria in Appendix
     B with a very detailed and prescriptive commercial program
     if we go too far in one direction.  Then you've eliminated,
     again, the benefit of trying to reduce emphasis on low
     safety significant SSC's.
               DR. KRESS:  The parts that you are going to -- the
     components that you're going to get from the commercial
     program, it seems to me like there ought to be some thinking
     about what is the actual reliability.  There ought to be
     enough data out there to say that in general, the
     reliability of commercial parts for this particular pump or
     whatever it is has this mean and this variance, and
     therefore, it very well meets the requirements I have on my
     PRA that shows this is not a safety significant thing.
               You wouldn't have to go into the -- you know, it's
     sort of a Bayesian approach.  You wouldn't have to go into
     the commercial process and what they do and what their
     quality controls are.  You just use the database.  Is there
     any thinking along that line?
               MR. FLOYD:  Yeah, there is.  We actually see two
     elements in it.  That is certainly one element, and we think
     that's appropriate for those design basis functions which
     can be routinely monitored through normal plan operation. 
     That's an appropriate way to treat those.  We acknowledge
     that there are other certain design basis functional
     requirements in harsh environments, for example, or seismic
     conditions that you're not going to be able to do that
     monitoring for.  So, then you need to have some design
     control and procurement control aspects put in place to
     assure that the equipment is being ordered with those
     considerations in mind.
               MR. BRADLEY:  There may be uses in other
     industrial applications where the equipment, it spurns
     routinely to a harsher environment, and you might be able to
     get some benefit out of that.
               DR. KRESS:  Yeah, that's what I had in mind, other
     industrial applications.
               MR. BRADLEY:  Right.  We will be looking at that.
               MR. FLOYD:  Right, looking at those.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  You mentioned the benefits.  Do
     you have any idea what -- I mean, if the industry implements
     this, what the benefits will be to them in terms of dollars?
               MR. FLOYD:  The only plant that's really looked at
     in much detail is south Texas, and they're telling us that
     this could have benefits of, you know, in the $2 million, $3
     million per year potential in terms of, largely in the
     procurement related area, procurement and inventory control.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  So you think that will be more
     or less the ball park?
               MR. FLOYD:  It's hard to say.  That's really what
     the -- because they're a little bit unique because of their
     late vintage of their licensing basis for their plant.  They
     have a lot more safety related SSC's identified in their
     licensing basis than a typical plant has.  That's really
     what the pilots, I think, are going to tell us, which is why
     the owners' groups are very interested in having a scoped
     pilot effort that will give them some of those answers.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  It might be less for others?
               MR. FLOYD:  It could be less for others, and it
     may turn out that that is representative.  We just don't
     know yet.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  And after these savings are
     realized, then people will spend a billion dollars to have a
     good level three PRA perhaps?
               MR. FLOYD:  Well, you know, we are going to talk
     about that a little bit in just a few more minutes, but no,
     I think --
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Category three.
               MR. FLOYD:  This is a market-drive, I think,
     application in general, and I think if people start seeing
     the benefits of applying risk technology, and the benefits
     are real intangible, you're going to see people embrace them
     more strongly and be willing to make a greater investment in
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  And after they do that, we'll
     need a new ASME standard because everyone will be category
               DR. KRESS:  We'll have to have a category four?
               MR. BRADLEY:  Don't get too far down the road. 
     We've got to make the baby steps first here.
               MR. FLOYD:  The other issue we have on Option 2 is
     treatment of prior commitments.  As we know, and I think as
     we talked before at this committee, a typical plant has
     somewhere around eight to 10,000 commitments.  These are
     things that are beyond strict regulatory requirements.  Many
     of them are the way the licensee has chosen to meet a
     specific regulatory requirement, but nonetheless, that's
     about a ball park number in the order of eight to 10,000 per
               What we would hope could happen under this Option
     2 approach would be a replacement, a blanket replacement, of
     those current commitments, which by and large, went to
     special treatment considerations and, you know, pedigree of
     equipment, with an acknowledgement that the new risk
     categorization process and the new defined treatment process
     for the various boxes is indeed a replacement for the
     previous commitments, without making a licensee go through
     the commitment management guideline, which has been endorsed
     by the agency, and write up a piece of paper for each of
     those 8,000 commitments to disposition it.  We'd like to see
     a blanket replacement.  Otherwise, it is a fairly extensive
     bureaucratic process to go through to officially eliminate
     those commitments from the docket.
               DR. BONACA:  Just before you leave this overhead,
     I would like to ask you about Part 21.  The benefit there is
     that probably in the procurement components which are not
     subjected to the requirement.
               MR. BRADLEY:  Yes.
               MR. FLOYD:  Yes.
               MR. BRADLEY:  Well, Part 21, it's imposing a
     significant liability on the vendor or the dedicator, so
     even if we can have -- let's say relaxation of other
     requirements, if Part 21 is still there, much of the benefit
     is not going to be gained.
               DR. BONACA:  Certainly, however, there is still a
     benefit to the industry of communicating problems of the
     components, and maybe they could be communicated in other
     vehicles than Part 21.
               MR. BRADLEY:  Yes, we've thought about that as
     well, that maybe, you know, there's ways to meet the intent
     without imposing a type of liability that drives the parts
     prices up.
               DR. BONACA:  Or eliminate suppliers, actually,
     because I mean, some of them don't want to supply any more.
               MR. BRADLEY:  Right, and this is an issue.  On
     RISC-2 where you may say, you know, in a BWR, for instance,
     at the condensate system or feedwater system is risk
     significant, you know, trying to impose Part 21 on those
     types of vendors would probably be very problematic for the
               MR. FLOYD:  As a close-out for Option 2, I think
     I'd be remiss if I didn't say that I think we've been having
     some very good meetings with the staff on Option 2. 
     Obviously, the industry has some more gelling to do.  The
     staff has some more gelling to do with respect to positions,
     but philosophically, I don't think we heard anything in our
     last meeting this past week that is greatly out of sync with
     what the industry thinks is the necessary things to do with
     respect to treatment for the SSC's under Option 2.  So, I
     think we're on the right pathway.
               I'd like to switch now to Option 3.  We do think
     that there has been a tremendous amount of thought and
     effort put in by the NRC staff in establishing the Option 3
     framework.  Some of the comments specifically that we have,
     and we provided these in our public comments, we tend to see
     that -- we think this is leaning a little bit more towards
     risk base than risk informed.  At least our impression.  It
     may be a wrong impression, but there seems to be more
     emphasis on the bottom line number results and less on the
     integration of the thought process that's embodied in Option
     2 approach with the integrated decision making process.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  I didn't get that impression
     from the representation.
               MR. FLOYD:  Okay.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  But again, risk based is
     something that should be avoided at all costs, right?
               MR. FLOYD:  It comes across more in looking at the
     framework than I think it does on the individual rulemaking
     efforts, you know.  This is more a comment on the framework
     document, I think, than --
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Well, they go out of their way,
     as I pointed out, than earlier, to state in several places
     that risk numbers will not appear in the regulations.  I
     thought that was excessive.  So, I guess it's in the eye of
     the beholder.  An excessive number of times.  I mean, they
     can say it once.  Not that they went too far, although that
     might be the case, too.  I don't know.  We're going to have
     a subcommittee meeting July 11 at 1:00 to discuss the
     framework here, Option 3.  It was decided today.
               MR. BRADLEY:  That's one none of us can support. 
     We have a --
               MR. FLOYD:  Right, we have a risk informed
     regulation working group meeting on the 11th.
               MR. HEYMER:  And a date with senior management.
               MR. FLOYD:  And senior management, PRA steering
     committee meeting with the staff on Monday morning.
               MR. BRADLEY:  One thing, since you mentioned this,
     it might be helpful is we could -- there's so much going on
     in risk informed right now.  One of the reasons we couldn't
     be here all day today is we have many meetings going on
     within the industry.  If possible, if we could coordinate
     our schedules in advance, we might be able to support these
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  I believe that is an excellent
     suggestion.  Let me tell you about today's meeting.  I mean,
     it was scheduled, really, this afternoon when we realized
     that the emphasis on the staff's presentation today was on
     5044.  You know, the committee really has not been given the
     opportunity to discuss the details.  So, it was something
     that it was decided at the last moment, but I think this is
     a great idea because, you know, I at least learned a lot by
     hearing different viewpoints.
               MR. FLOYD:  Right.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  It's unfortunate.  Maybe you can
     go back and look at your commitment and maybe one of you can
     show up for awhile.
               DR. KRESS:  But that seemed to be about the only
     date we could come up with.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Yeah, this is the only day, you
     see, because it's just before the full committee meeting.
               MR. BRADLEY:  Well maybe just make an effort to
     share our schedules and try to do that.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  No, we will.  Are you in town
     that week?
               MR. BRADLEY:  They are in town that week.  I'm on
               MR. FLOYD:  We're partly in town that week.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  I mean, if you can show up
     around 4:00.  Do your meetings go late?
               MR. FLOYD:  They go -- this one is from one to
     5:00 in the afternoon, since we're meeting with the PRA
     steering committee in the morning from nine to 11:00.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Anyway, that's --
               MR. BRADLEY:  Your full committee meeting is the
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Yes.  You plan to be there?
               MR. BRADLEY:  Yeah, that's probably a date we can
     -- I can't speak for you guys.
               MR. FLOYD:  You might have to cover it, Adrian.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Okay, so maybe then we can give
     you some time.
               DR. KRESS:  That would be helpful.  That would be
     in time before we wrote our letter.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Yeah.
               MR. FLOYD:  As you know, it's hard to schedule all
     of these meetings that are going on and all the parties that
     are interested in what's going on in risk informed
     regulation.  That is a challenge to get the schedules to
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  That's right, but especially for
     issues like Option 3 -- I mean, on Option 2.  It seems to me
     we really have to go through and scrutiny every detail
     because these are major pieces of regulation.
               MR. FLOYD:  Right, significant changes.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Now, the second bullet --
               MR. FLOYD:  Yeah, let's get to that one.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  What is it that bothers you
     there, the fact that they are using the safety goal numbers
               MR. FLOYD:  What's bothering us --
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  -- as given by the Commission,
     or the idea of using safety goals?
               MR. FLOYD:  No, no, not the idea of using safety
     goals.  It's the way in which the safety goal is being
     applied.  Our understanding is that the current policy
     statement is that safety goals are to be applied on the
     general fleet of plans and are not to be used on an
     individual plant basis.  Our read of the framework document
     seems to be driving it more towards the intent to use it on
     an individual plant basis, and that hasn't been a policy
     decision that has been made yet.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  If you use 1174, you're using it
     on an individual plant basis.
               DR. KRESS:  That's much more so there than you are
     in this.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  But those numbers there come
     from the QHO.
               MR. FLOYD:  Well, 1.174 is really for evaluating
     individual changes that you're making --
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  But individual plants --
               MR. FLOYD:  -- but it doesn't specifically say
     anywhere in Reg Guide 1.174 that you cannot exceed either
     the minus four or ten to the minus four core damage
               DR. KRESS:  My reading of the framework document
     would say that they're using these safety goals just like
     they were intended, and that is to gauge how well they're
     writing the regulations to get the fleet of plants on an
     average down there.  They won't say each individual plant,
     you have to meet this safety goal.  They're going to say
     we're going to write the regulations so that on the average,
     there is a tendency to, if they follow these regulations,
     there is a tendency that they might meet the goals, but not
     each individual plant.  That was my reading --
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  Yeah.
               DR. KRESS:  -- that they were just using them just
     like they were intended to be.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  I had a different reading.  I
     thought that before you know it, if you use them like that,
     they will become measures of adequate protection, and that
     ws not the original intent.
               MR. FLOYD:  No, it was not the original intent.
               MR. BRADLEY:  Well, I guess the fact that we have
     different readings says something, that maybe --
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  That we should have a
     subcommittee meeting.
               DR. KRESS:  To clarify this.
               MR. FLOYD:  It's an issue that needs to be in
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  No, this is an important issue
     in my view.
               MR. FLOYD:  Right.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  This is one of the most
     important issues --
               MR. FLOYD:  Right.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  -- because just because the
     numbers are there and you don't have any other numbers, it
     doesn't mean you have to start using them to do certain
     things for which they were not intended.
               I thought the issue of the applicability of the
     goals in the individual plants had been settled.  We were
     discussing this.
               MR. KING:  It was settled in 1174.  It was raised
     as a policy issue, and the Commission said yes.  They said
     yes in the context of 1174.  They haven't said yes in the
     context of revising the regulations.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  So the Commission is allowed to
     have selective implementation.
               MR. KING:  But you're only going to raise this as
     a policy issue.  I mean, I think clearly, this is something
     the Commission needs to weigh in on.
               MR. FLOYD:  Especially if you're going to be risk
     informed and you realize that not every plant needs a ten to
     the minus fourth core damage frequency to meet the
     quantitative health objectives and the safety goal.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  That's my concern, too.
               MR. KING:  That's our concern.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  It may turn out to be a measure
     of inadequate protection, not adequate.  That's not the
     original intent.  See, if it's adequate protection, it's
     risk based.  If it's a measure of inadequate, then it's
     still risk informed.
               MR. BRADLEY:  And 1.174 was written to go beyond
     adequate protection.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  I can play the word game as well
     as you can.  I'm sorry, Biff.
               MR. BRADLEY:  1.174 Contains a discussion of the
     fact that it was intended to establish measures beyond
     adequate protection.  It's not intended to define what is
     adequate protection.
               DR. APOSTOLAKIS:  That's true.
               MR. BRADLEY:  Yeah.
               MR. FLOYD:  Our third bullet really goes -- is a
     corollary to the second bullet, and it's the policy issue. 
     We think that is a departure to apply again the subsidiary
     objectives of the safety goal on an individual plant basis,
     and that was our read as to what it looked like it was going
               The last bullet, I think, is perhaps one that's a
     little bit interesting, and it goes to what Tom was talking
     about in his presentation about the application of the
     backfit rule.  I don't think anybody in the industry
     disagrees that if there is an outstanding issue out there
     that does show a cost benefit for being a provision in one
     of the Option 3 risk informed changes that it's appropriate
     to put it in, that's fine.  We don't see any clear guidance
     yet in the framework document, which would suggest that
     additions that want to be made to requirements that aren't
     included today would, indeed, have to pass some sort of
     threshold criteria, and what is that criteria before they
     would be imposed under the Option 3 framework.
               I mean, our understanding is that under the Option
     3 framework, we are looking for, you know, improvements in
     the effectiveness and the efficiency of the regulation by
     removing unnecessary burden and by focusing the regulation
     on that which is important.  While our understanding is that
     with this double edged sword, we're only going to be allowed
     to make minor changes, we think if there are significant
     additions to the requirements, they ought to have a criteria
     of what level of significance do they have to add value for. 
     Otherwise, they just become potentially another candidate
     for a reduction at a later date because they're not
     effective, and we don't know what that criteria is at this
               Overall, and these words probably more come from
     our working group than anybody else.  What we're really
     looking for in Option 3 is a pragmatic versus a more
     theoretical approach.  We really think that the best
     approach in Option 3 is to use generic risk insights.  In
     fact, when we think about what the role of the regulations
     is to be applicable to a fleet of plants, we're not sure
     that you need a great deal of plant specific detailed PRA
     information to adopt Option 3.     What you ought to be
     looking at are broad, generic insights from PRA results
     across a fleet or a subset of the fleet of plants rather
     than being too focused on the actual plant specific PRA
     results.  Now, there may be certain cases where that's
     appropriate, depending on how the regulation is written, but
     in general, we think it ought to be a generic application
     for a generic rulemaking.
               As we've said, we want to make sure that we do
     preserve the risk informed philosophy and make sure we don't
     get too risk based in this by focusing too much again on
     numbers and plant specific PRA results.
               DR. SHACK:  Would that mean, for example, that you
     don't particular like the alternative two approach to 5044,
     where it would be very plant specific?
               MR. FLOYD:  Yes.  We think it would be better to
     have a generic rulemaking which stands back and looks in the
     big picture, what are the important things for -- maybe it
     doesn't apply to all the fleet of plants, but maybe you have
     to break it up into subsections of a fleet of plants, that
     these are the items that our insides tell us are important
     to pay attention to from a public health and safety
     perspective, and then write a generic rulemaking around that
               DR. SHACK:  Just coming back to your bullet in the
     previous page where you've objected to the quantitative
     basis.  Now, is that the particular number or just the
     notion of a quantitative basis?
               MR. FLOYD:  No, I think it's the particular number
     focused on a plant specific result as opposed to -- yeah,
     certainly we think it may not be inappropriate to have a
     quantitative basis for it.  That's applied generically based
     upon insights from a population of plants.  Biff and Adrian,
     jump in here is you have any problems with that.  No, okay.
               Our recommendations under Option 3, as we had in
     our letter, were to complete the ongoing efforts that are
     going on in hydrogen control and the fire protection, 50.48
     Appendix R effort.  The greatest -- we did a survey of the
     industry last fall, and all our indications are is that the
     results of that survey are not any different today.  The
     feedback we're getting is that people think the areas that
     are most right for improvement are codes and standards under
     50.55(a) and the large break loca analysis, 50.46.
               DR. KRESS:  Can I ask you a question about that? 
     Let's take the large break loca.  We've got the 50.46 rule
     and Appendix K, which imposes certain requirements on the
     plants.  Now, if they're going to risk inform that, then
     there will be another kind of rule with different
     requirements imposed.  In order to get a benefit estimate,
     you must have had some sort of notion of what this new rule
     is going to look like in order to determine what you're
     going to be allowed to change and do.  I'm not sure, without
     your having the actual new risk informed rule, I'm not sure
     what assumption was made in, say, the NEI letter where these
     showed up.  How were these cost estimates arrived at? 
     That's my question.
               MR. HEYMER:  On the 50.46, most of the responses
     were from -- not all the responses, but most were from the
     Westinghouse plants, who used the data that they developed
     under the owners group approach to define what the benefit
     might be from the Westinghouse owners group activity
     associated with the large break loca.  In that, they'd made
     some preliminary assumptions and from their preliminary
     work, they thought that they could get down to a specific
     break size in redefining the large break, and based on that.
               DR. KRESS:  They made some assumptions.
               MR. HEYMER:  Yes, they made some assumptions. 
     Now, obviously, the larger the break size, perhaps the lower
     the benefit, but I mean, that's what they based it on, and
     some of the other owners groups who provided information to
     us said they didn't think they could go that way, but they
     felt there may be some benefit if they applied the follow-on
     activities from a large break.  Whether or not they came
     down to the same size at the Westinghouse owners group was a
     matter of debate.  So, there was some provisional -- it was
     preliminary.  We acknowledge that, but at least it gave us
     some indication of where we might go.
               DR. KRESS:  It gave you an indication.
               MR. HEYMER:  Yes.
               DR. KRESS:  Probably good enough numbers for doing
     prioritization, anyway.
               MR. HEYMER:  Yeah, and then once you get into it,
     you know, you re-assess that as you go along.
               DR. KRESS:  As I said, after the rule just some
               MR. HEYMER:  And obviously before the executives
     say move on.  They want some harder numbers still.
               DR. KRESS:  Thank you.
               MR. FLOYD:  Some of the non-Westinghouse plants
     also were looking at elimination of the requirement to
     consider a loss of off site power coincident with the double
     ended guillotine break as one approach, as well as removing
     some of the conservatisms, the known conservatisms in the
     Appendix K analysis.
               DR. KRESS:  Eliminating the loss of off site
     power.  Is that because you've got it down to such a low
     probability that it's not --
               MR. FLOYD:  Yes.  If you look at the probability
     of the large break size coincident with the loop, you're
     pretty far down.
               DR. KRESS:  Pretty far down.  Okay, thank you.
               MR. HEYMER:  Just a quick point on the codes and
     standards.  It wasn't really clear from the survey when we
     went back to people and asked questions whether the benefits
     that they were quoting were really just from what they might
     achieve under Option 3 or what they might achieve through
     Option 2 as well.  Some people who put numbers in there
     hadn't implemented ISI or IST-type of activities.
               MR. FLOYD:  And then obviously, the desired
     approach that the industry really has is they think if we
     could focus on the codes and standards and large break rule,
     that that will probably flush out the preponderance of the
     policy issues and the degree of rigor that will have to be
     demonstrated to make these changes, and then they will be in
     a better position at that point to look at prioritization
     for remaining regulations.
               We actually think while that sounds like that's a
     slowing down of the effort, we really think that would
     actually result in a speed-up of the overall effort because
     we'll either know the benefit is there and as the desire to
     move forward or not.  When we get the results from these
     first two efforts, then we'll know the magnitude of the
     policy issues that will have to be likely dealt with.
               This next one, again, this is just a perception. 
     Perhaps it's because we've had a lot more dialogue with the
     staff on Option 2 than Option 3.  The timing is a little bit
     different on the two efforts, at least with respect to our
     involvement and interactions.  We do see, at the front end,
     maybe a little bit different and fundamental approach.
               We see the research effort perhaps, again our view
     being a little bit more focused on the plant specific PRA
     results and the importance of the number.  That's an
     impression that we have, and we see the NRR side.  While
     that's certainly an element, we see them very much more
     concerned, perhaps, about some of the other elements that
     are not covered by the PRA being brought in.
               Perhaps, as I said, it's a function of the level
     of dialogue that we've had to date on Option 2 versus Option
     3 that's driving that, but that's an early perception that
     we have.  If that fundamental difference does indeed exist,
     then we think it would be of great benefit to sort that out
     and make sure that we have a consistent approach from both
     offices in the agency.
               I will comment, and I think this is just the
     nature of the beast that we're dealing with on the second
     bullet, that most of the meetings we've had to date on
     Option 2 really wind up focusing on what do you do with the
     stuff that your risk categorization process tells you is not
     very important, and sometime I know we're going to have to
     get over that, but at some point in time, we really need to
     start paying attention to what's the stuff that we all think
     is important and making sure that we're dealing with that
     correctly and figure out how to not spend so much time
     worrying about the unimportant or less important stuff.
               DR. SHACK:  How comfortable are you with you
     agreement over what it's going to take to decide what's
     important and what's not important?
               MR. FLOYD:  Do you want to address that, Biff?
               MR. BRADLEY:  How comfortable we are with the
               DR. SHACK:  The categorization.
               MR. BRADLEY:  Well, I think really that's the
     driver of this issue.  To some degree it's a degree of
     confidence in the categorization process.
               DR. SHACK:  Oh, well I thought the argument was on
     the actual treatment that you would give to the low risk
               MR. BRADLEY:  Right.
               DR. SHACK:  But not whether on what you decide.
               MR. BRADLEY:  We're more comfortable with the
     categorization element than we are with the treatment
     element.  It seems that -- I think, you know, we've done
     categorizations of more of a limited scope thing, a
     maintenance rule, ISI, IST.  Those are, you know,
     categorization, graded QA.  There's some sense of you can do
     that and success.
               There seems to be more controversy and more
     difficulty trying to decide what do you do with it once
     you've binned it, you know, and there's not a -- you know,
     you can always be really conservative in the categorization
     process to take care of any disagreement, but then once
     you've done that, you know, that in itself doesn't give you
     anything.  You've got to do something with the two bins, and
     that's where the difficulty is, more controversy.
               So, it's also where the whole benefit would
     evolve.  So, just having an agreement and a mutual
     understanding on how to categorize doesn't tell us
     everything we need to know to have success, you know, and
     widespread buy-in into these efforts.
               I think we'll get there.  It's always difficult,
     and there's a long history to some of these things, and
     change is difficult, but you know, I believe we can get
     there.  Steve's right, you know.  There seems to be an
     inordinate focus on things that everyone seems to agree on
     low safety, you know, significant in the categorization
               MR. HEYMER:  When the NRC staff are planning some
     visits to plants to look at some of the programs that will
     be applicable to the low safety significance, and I think
     once they've seen those, I think it will ease the path of
     resolution.  There will be a better understanding from the
     NRC side of what we really mean by commercial or commercial
     nuclear practices.  I think one we've got through that
     phase, there will be a much better understanding, and we'll
     have a better idea of where we're going and how far we can
               MR. FLOYD:  And just a final observation, and it
     really goes to what Dr. Apostolakis referred to just a
     little bit ago, and that is there is, we think, a limited
     window of opportunity for getting general support within the
     industry for these initiatives.  It's expensive to be a
     pilot plant.  It's expensive to kind of go out on your own,
     as South Texas has.  The longer that review takes, the more
     resources that are applied to it.
               If we could show some timely resolution on 5044
     and action on the South Texas exemption request, I think
     that will spur the rest of the industry on to be much more
     interested and engaged in applying risk technology, and will
     probably promote better PRA models and a desire to upgrade
     PRA models and get better information, which personally, we
     think, is to the benefit of the overall industry and public
     health and safety.  We think there's just so much
     information that's available from the insights that you get
     from risk analysis, that we'd like to see a strengthening of
     those abilities within the industry.
               That concludes our formal remarks.
               DR. KRESS:  We certainly thank you and ask if any
     of the committee members wish to ask any more questions. 
     Any comments from research or NRR?  Anybody in the audience
     want to make a comment?
               Seeing none, I wish to thank the NEI
     representatives.  We hope you can make our full committee
     meeting on the review of the framework document.
               With that, I'm going to declare this meeting
               [Whereupon, at 3:05 p.m., the meeting was

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