467th Meeting - November 4, 1999
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION ADVISORY COMMITTEE ON REACTOR SAFEGUARDS *** MEETING: 467TH ADVISORY COMMITTEE ON REACTOR SAFEGUARDS U.S. NRC Two White Flint North, Room T2-B3 11545 Rockville Pike Rockville, MD Thursday, November 4, 1999 The committee met, pursuant to notice at 1:00 p.m. MEMBERS PRESENT: DANA POWERS, Chairman, ACRS GEORGE APOSTOLAKIS, Member, ACRS THOMAS KRESS, Member, ACRS ROBERT SEALE, Member, ACRS JOHN BARTON, Member, ACRS MARIO BONACA, Member, ACRS WILLIAM SHACK, Member, ACRS JOHN SIEBER, Member, ACRS GRAHAM WALLIS, Member, ACRS ROBERT UHRIG, Member, ACRS . P R O C E E D I N G S [1:00 p.m.] DR. POWERS: We will come into session. This is the first day of the 467th meeting of the Advisory Committee on Reactive Safeguards. During today's meeting, the Committee will consider the following: proposed revision to Section 11 of NUMARC 93-01, Assessment of Risk Resulting from Performance and Maintenance Activities; NRC's safety research program report to the Commission; and proposed -- other proposed ACRS reports. The Committee met with the NRC Commissioners between 9:30 a.m. and 11:30 a.m. today in the Commissioners' conference rooms and discussed several items of mutual interest. This meeting will be conducted in accordance with the provisions of the Federal Advisory Committee Act. Dr. John T. Larkins is the designated Federal official for the initial portion of the meeting. We have receive no written statements or requests for time to make oral statements from members of the public regarding today's session. A transcript of portions of the meeting is being kept, and it is requested that the speakers use one of the microphones, identify themselves, and speak with sufficient clarity and volume so they can be readily heard. I will begin the meeting today by bringing up a couple of items of interest. Internally, effective November the 1st, 1999, Howard Larson has been detailed to the position of Associate Director, Technical Services of the ACRS/ACNW. I think everybody knows Howard. Would you stand up? You may not know much about his background, which is varied and rich. During his career, he has had various leadership positions in industry and government, having served as a nuclear-trained naval officer; manager, reactor relations (**check word**) at GE's Vallecitos facility; GE project manager for the Fitzpatrick plant; Duane Arnold project manager for Commonwealth Associates; an architect-engineer-constructor; director of engineering for General Atomic; technical vice president for Atomic Industrial Forum, a trade association; president and general manager for the Allied General Nuclear Services, a reprocessing plant in Barnwell, South Carolina; and Senior Vice President, Plant Services, for the Nuclear Energy Services, Danbury, Connecticut. DR. KRESS: He can't hold a job. [Laughter.] MR. LARSON: It's a lot of years. [Laughter.] DR. SEALE: Is there any significance to those suspenders that he's got? DR. POWERS: During a short tour of duty, during the 1974-1975 transition from AEC to NRC, he was the Director, Division of Fuel Cycle and Materials Licensing, and the first Director of the Office of Nuclear Materials, Safety, and Safeguards. Prior to assuming his current position, Howard was a Senior Staff Engineer for the ACNW. So we're getting a guy that has a excellent background for our kind of work-- DR. KRESS: A lot of mileage. DR. POWERS: And even knows what goes on in the other side. MR. LARSON: That's what my wife says. DR. POWERS: Howard has possessed both Navy and AEC reactor operator and senior reactor operator license, and is a registered professional engineer in nuclear engineering in the State of California. So, Howard, welcome aboard. And it looks like you bring a rich and varied background to this Committee that we could learn a lot from. I, myself, am always interested in what all goes on in the Vallecitos in the past and in the present. In the meantime, Dr. Savio has assumed the position of Special Assistant to ACRS Executive Director. He's going back to doing technical work instead of whatever it is that managers do. Dr. Savio will work with Dr. Larkins to keep the Commission informed on Committee activities--our operating plan, self-assessment, et cetera. And he'll work with NRC senior staff on procedural and policy issues impacting the ACRS and ACNW. And this self-assessment business is, of course, an important activity that the Commission assigned to us. And, Dick, I think you'll be helping us on that directly. As always, Dr. Savio is available to work with ACRS members on issues that they need help on, and that's one of the ideas of having a senior engineer here is that we can augment activities that sometimes are done by fellows to pursue things in more detail than we might ordinarily be able to pursue them in. And, Dick, I think you're going to enjoy this job a lot. It's-- DR. SAVIO: Yes, I'm looking forward to it. DR. POWERS: Yes, good. You also have a package of items of interest before you. You may want to read some of the comments that Commissioner Meserve had upon his induction into the -- his current position. There are a variety of other things in this package that may be of interest to you. I have to wait. How long do I have to filibuster? MR. SINGH: About another 10 minutes. DR. POWERS: Another 10 minutes, right. UNKNOWN SPEAKER: That's soup for you, David. DR. KRESS: George? Where's George? Don't leave. DR. POWERS: Well, I think that on that regard I want to discuss a couple of things with the members. One of those is the research report that we're going to prepare. Our objective there is to have a report that is very nearly finalized at the end of our December meeting so that we can take it home and look at it and give the last final scribble (**check word**) of the holidays and actually put it out officially at our February meeting. And I'm thinking that it might be easiest to accomplish that if we have a subcommittee meeting of the whole prior to our December full meeting to work on that research report. So you might give some thought on the viability of that idea of having a day prior to the full meeting to work strictly on the research report, to get it in finalized shape. The other item of -- that you should think about over the course of the day is that Planning and Procedures has tasked Dr. Larkins and myself to develop a plan for the retreat at the end of January. And we have -- John has put together a first guess that you will -- of what might be covered in that retreat. But I think you look at it strictly as a draft. It's his first thinking on the subject, and might want to think yourself about the topics that you think deserve the attention during our retreat. I think clearly the issue of making Part 50 risk-informed will definitely occupy some of the time at least. Other things, though, might be considered as well. And, John, do you have anything to add to that? DR. LARKINS: Yesterday, we talked about three or four different topical discussions. DR. POWERS: Right. DR. LARKINS: And, you know, I'm not sure if those are the only ones or the key ones that the Committee wants to cover, but, you know, we'll go through those -- I don't have -- unfortunately, I don't have it in front of me -- we'll go through those during the Planning and Procedures discussion. DR. POWERS: Well, I have it. Let's see. Some of the topics that have been suggested clearly the risk-informing Part 50; standards for PRAs, as a discussion of what constitutes an adequate PRA; discussions of computer codes and what constitutes the best estimate code, what constitutes a good review of a best estimate code, what constitutes validation of a best estimate code, thinking both of phenomenological and risk assessment codes. DR. LARKINS: And that includes a tutorial from Dr. Wallace that we had put off a while. DR. POWERS: That -- that would certainly be a central element of this discussion. DR. LARKINS: This is a strategy for reviewing these codes. DR. POWERS: Another topic that's been suggested is safety culture. What is it? Why is it important? Industry issues--what are the issues that the industry have with NRC's regulations? What things do they think deserve receiving attention? A self-assessment of the ACRS itself, and development of its operating plan for the year. A discussion of do we have the right members, enough members, too many members, et cetera for the future. DR. LARKINS: Yes, the issue on the ACRS interaction with the industry is sort of a follow up to last year, where I think Dr. Seale, Uhrig, and Mario Bonaca, and now Mr. Sieber would sort of represent a panel to provide their insights on, you know, our interactions with the industry, how we're perceived, and how well we interact with them. And there's some -- some reports have already been generated. I know Bob read a report a couple of months ago. DR. POWERS: I think the strategy or the plans for this meeting does include trying to complete this joint ACRS-ACNW letter on background for risk-informing the regulations that apply to materials licensees. When members get a copy of that, they want to look at it in the understanding that we're going to basically vote yea or nay, and do very little editing on that -- that letter. They are free to have added comments if you want, but we're not going to go through and edit that letter like we usually do. We presume that has been done by the joint committee, and we're more in the approve it or disapprove it. But you still have the right to have added comments if you want. MR. SINGH: Staff is here. DR. POWERS: Okay, so now we can move on with the -- first item of business and that is the proposed revision to Section 11 in NUMARC 93-01, Assessment of Risk Resulting from Performance and Maintenance Activities. John, you're going to take us into this? MR. BARTON: Yes, I will. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The purpose of the meeting this afternoon is to hear a briefing and hold discussions with representatives of the NRC staff and members of the industry regarding Revision Three, to Regulatory Guide 1.160, Draft Guide 1082, with the title Assessing and Managing Risk Before Maintenance Activities at Nuclear Power Plants and the industry's document Section 11 to NUMARC 93-01, entitled Industry Guidelines for Monitoring Effectiveness and Maintenance at Nuclear Power Plants. We've had a recent meeting -- last month, month before -- with the staff and industry, and at that point there were three issues that seemed to need resolution before we could move forward with the regulatory guide. And those issues had to do with scopes in the assessment, whether it's just high or low risk safety significant SSCs, how they managed their risk, and the definition of unavailability. At this point, I'll turn it over to the staff, Rich Correia, who will lead us into, you know, where we stand with respect to the regulatory guide and those outstanding issues. MR. CORREIA: Thank you. Good afternoon. Again, we're here to talk about the current phase version of the draft regulatory guide for the change to the maintenance rule, 5065A4. I'm Rich Correia from NRR. With me today is Dr. See-Meng Wong from the PSA branch of NRR. Bruce Boger, who is director of the division of inspection program management, is my boss; and other supporting staff here that will certainly chime in if requested. If I could bring the Committee back in time a little bit. We briefed the Commission on May 5th regarding rule making, and after that meeting they directed us, through SRM, to continue working on the rule revision and to begin work on the draft reg guide, seek guidance from CRG-ACRS, and to work in a collaborative fashion with stakeholders to produce a final regulatory guide for Commission approval. I think the last element is really the focus of today's briefing is the interactions we've had with NEI and industry on this draft guide, the positions we had early on, and where we are today. On May 17th, we delivered to the Commission the final rule making package. We briefed the Committee--I believe it was July 14th--on where we were with the reg guide at that time. And shortly thereafter, on July 19th, the rule was published to become effective 120 days after the guidance is finalized. The rule itself, not very long--two sentences--essentially a requirement to assess and manage any risk increases due to planned maintenance activities. Currently, the rule has essentially the same requirement, only it isn't a requirement--the word should is used. Long story short, we recommended that the Commission change this rule to a -- to make this part of the rule, to make it a requirement. And very near the end of the rule making deliberations, it was decided that this particular part of the maintenance rule should have an element of a risk-informed scope, which is what the last sentence is about--the option to limit the scope of structure systems and components that are risk-informed, the evaluation processes has shown to be significant to public health and safety. DR. SEALE: This is a band that you can fall on from either direction. When you say the licensee shall assess and manage the increase in risk that may result from the proposed maintenance activities, that supposedly recognizes the configuration that the plant is in for that particular maintenance activity? MR. CORREIA: Yes. DR. SEALE: So if that maintenance is being done -- and I also understand that it has been the industry's position that the maintenance rule covers shutdown as well as operating events? MR. CORREIA: That was also a Commission-mandated change to the rule to add a preamble that specifically states that this section shall apply during normal operations and shutdown conditions. DR. SEALE: So if I read those two statements together, then I come up with a requirement that a risk assessment, based on the actual plant configuration in the shutdown mode, will be the basis for determining the risk importance of the relevant systems, structures, and components? MR. CORREIA: We've taken the position in the regulatory guide that if a licensee has a shutdown risk PRA, they should use it, but we can't mandate it. So it would have to be accomplished using-- DR. SEALE: But you are saying here that they have to recognize the risk significance-- MR. CORREIA: Yes. DR. SEALE: Of SSCs based on the configuration that they're in, and the mode of operation that the plant is in. Whether or not they go through and do a formal risk assessment or not is a separate issue. The determination of whether the component, or the SSC, is risk significant or not risk significant is specific to the configuration and the plant status? MR. CORREIA: That's true. DR. SEALE: I think we're there. MR. CORREIA: That's true. It is a dynamic situation. Yes, it is. DR. POWERS: I think that the understanding that the speaker has and the understanding that I think we have is the same. MR. CORREIA: Yes. DR. POWERS: But it's not clear to me that everybody shares that-- DR. SEALE: That's why I raised the issue. DR. POWERS: And the magnitude of the effort associated with doing the assessment I think is open to debate. DR. SEALE: Yes. DR. POWERS: And it is my belief that the rule, as now written, and the guidance, as written, allows fairly easy threading through one and two components out of service. Things get complicated only when you go to more than two. MR. CORREIA: That's true. Yes. DR. BONACA: So regarding this statement, the last statement--the scope of the assessment may be limited to structures, system, and components that the risk-informed evaluation process has shown to be significant to public health and safety. What does it refer to? Ranking down by taking one component out of service at a time? MR. CORREIA: No, the -- and I'll -- we'll get into this briefly. The scope that we have determined that would meet this option, because it is an option -- the licensees may chose to consider the whole scope of the maintenance rule -- what we have determined is any high safety significance system that's already defined for the maintenance rule, any system that's modeled in the PRA, and certain other systems that have either support high safety-significant or other PSA system model in the PRA or have interdependencies with these other systems such that they would have an impact on their performance-- DR. BONACA: So you're talking about those four items which are defined in the guidance from NEI, the four conditions? MR. CORREIA: We had four specific items in our draft reg guide that has been translated by NEI into more of a process to determine which SSCs should be considered during this assessment process. They're not specific line items, but further discussion on how you determine which of these SSCs need to be considered for the assessments. DR. WALLIS: The thing that I don't understand is manage the increase in risk, and because he's (**inaudible**) the maintenance activities and he does his assessment and says that for 10 minutes during this activity my co-damage probability is up by a factor of a thousand. Do you expect him to do something? And how do you tell if he's managed or not managed this increase in risk? MR. CORREIA: We have to look at if he chooses to use a risk assessment, what that risk value is, the process that he uses to take actions to minimize that risk or reduce that risk through staff awareness, contingency planning, having a back up or redundant systems and people in place to manage the risk, control and-- DR. WALLIS: It's a kind of a catch all thing, though. I mean, you're not specifying what he has to do. You just look at the things that have been done, and say, yes, we think that was good management or not. MR. CORREIA: Well, the guideline does list several items that should be considered. Yes. DR. UHRIG: On certain utilities, they have a system called the risk meter. Is it appropriate to perhaps run several combinations of different activities at the same time to demonstrate that this is -- one way is better than another? MR. CORREIA: Yes. DR. UHRIG: Would this be an appropriate approach to this? MR. CORREIA: Yes, it is. DR. WONG: Yes, there are software -- PRA software that contains a PRA model that will analyze the different configurations that the plant may go into, and they will come up with risk numbers and some of the -- what is being articulated in the guidance document and in the NEI guidance document -- there are certain thresholds in which actions need to be taken. DR. UHRIG: This presumes that you have the PRA performed for the shutdown condition included in the PRA, because you're dealing with shutdown conditions here. MR. CORREIA: Okay-- DR. WONG: Yes, in some of the -- my understanding is in the risk monitor devices that are being developed today, they are integrating shutdown risk models that has been developed so that you can look across not only the full power operations but as well as in certain modes of shutdown. MR. BARTON: But you're not requiring a shutdown PRA? MR. CORREIA: No. We strongly encourage it if they have it, but we don't require it. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: Let me try to understand this a little better. Let's say we have a licensee who chooses not to use PRA, and somehow a situation is identified where, indeed, the risk has to be managed. Now, risk is kind of qualitative notion here -- that there is some degradation of the safety functions. So they say, well, look, I'm managing the risk. I am informing my people that we are in this configuration, and they should be prepared to do certain things. And the staff thinks about it, and they say, well, it makes sense to me. So you're managing the risk. Now, you have another unfortunate guy somewhere else who has actually quantified the risk, and he finds also that the probability -- yes, the conditional core damage probability exceeds the threshold that you have. And he says, well, I will make sure that my people know about it and they will be prepared to do certain things so this probability will be reduced, and the staff comes back and says, but these things cannot be modeled in a PRA. You're in trouble. How can you show that your -- that the threshold is not exceeded. So, all of a sudden, that guy has to argue with you about the PRA and how the fact his people are informed about something can change the numbers, and give and take can take forever. Isn't that fellow penalized for using PRA? Then is that something that we want to encourage? MR. CORREIA: No. DR. WONG: No, I don't they're penalizing people that are using the PRA. You use the PRA to do a calculation as an input to your decision that you're performing maintenance in a configuration. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: But you see there is an extra question here that you are not asking of the other guy. This fellow has quantified. He finds that the number is eight ten to the minus seven, and you say it should be five. So he says, well, he's proposing exactly the same remedy as the other guy. And he says, you know, my people will be alerted to this situation, and, you know, be prepared to do things. I can see a series of exchanges between the NRC and the licensee here arguing whether that particular provision will bring the number down to ten to the minus -- five ten to the minus seven. Whereas the other guy is completely free. The question doesn't even come up. Now, from that point of view, it seems to me you're penalizing the person who chooses to use a PRA. MR. CORREIA: I guess I view it as the person -- well, if the person -- if the utility or licensee doesn't have a PRA -- I'd -- my view is he is much more limited as to what he can do to meet this regulation. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: But does that come across? I mean, is there a place where I can go and look and get that feeling? DR. POWERS: I mean, suppose it's not this black and white. Suppose we compare the guy with the PRA that has numbers to the guy that has orange or he has colors, and he as three oranges and the rest greens as his indicator, and another guy has one red and the rest greens. Now, how do you respond to these -- we now have three people, all proposing exactly the same change. One's got numbers. One's got colors that are two -- three oranges and the rest greens. The other one has colors--one red, the rest green. How do you treat -- what are the differences in treatment of those three guys? MR. CORREIA: In my view, a lot has to do with what other actions they're taking, besides knowing the number or the colors. And it goes back to what you were saying earlier is management awareness, contingency planning, how well the people that are needed to implement these plans are trained, or procedures they're using--it's all of those quantitative issues that come into play. And I think we have to look at how well the licensee has planned, understands everything that needs to be done, what needs to be done if something goes wrong during the evolution. DR. SEALE: Let me state their problem a little bit differently. You're talking about, I would gather, the response once the application has come to you. I think what they're referring to is the problem of what information does the utility have on which to make the decision as to whether or not you want to go the risk-informed way or the traditional way. Are you, by virtue of the implied enhanced preciseness of the risk assessment, presenting the licensee with a situation where they're sort of lured into not going the PRA way because it appears that the PRA way is the hard way? MR. CORREIA: No, if I were inspecting this situation, I think personally my comfort level would be higher if I did see PRA numbers being utilized in conjunction-- DR. SEALE: Yes, but you're working -- or the primary number you're concerned with is payroll when you make that -- the guy that makes the decision is the manager, and he worries about whether or not he's got an adequate PRA staff to pursue this thing. Essentially, you're getting a route where he doesn't have to have a PRA staff and saying it's probably going to be easier if you do it that way, or suggesting it anyway. MR. BOGER: This is Bruce Boger. I just want to make sure we're capturing our bounding this area. I think through the maintenance rule baseline inspections we discovered that all the plants we're using some sort of a PRA-based instrument for at power maintenance rule activities. Is that? MR. CORREIA: That's true. DR. WONG: That's true. MR. BOGER: So what we're really talking about now is shutdown operations. Is that understood? I mean, we're talking about an error set of issues here. DR. BONACA: Well, not really. I mean, before we leave the, you know, on line maintenance of power, there are tools, but certainly simple metrics where you have, you know, system on the left and system on the axis -- in some cases may not be adequate if you pull out multiple systems out of service. Okay, because you are changing the configuration in a way that that very simple metric doesn't apply anymore in the way to give you the right insight. And even at PRA, even if you use a PRA monitor, you have to make sure it has the ability of evaluating multiple components. It doesn't come automatically. I mean, you have to make certain software changes to the program to assure that you can evaluate risk significance on the basis of the new configuration that you have. So I'm saying that not all approaches being used right now at the sites from what I understand provide you that kind of ability to make predictional risk. DR. POWERS: But the typical software in these purposes would only allow you to do one at a time. DR. BONACA: One at a time. One at a time, and you're right, I mean, there are some clear examples how the risk achievement worth of the component is very much dependent on the configuration they pull it out from. I'll give you an example, which is so clear. A plant with two (**inaudible**) generators. You're taking one out of service typically the risk achievement worth is about a factor of six or seven -- it's one of them. Now if from this configuration, you remove the other one. MR. BOGER: You can't do it. Tech specs wouldn't allow that. DR. BONACA: I understand that. I'm only giving you an example of, you know, for a very simple case where tech specs would limit. If you remove the other one, its worth may be a factor of 40 to 60. The same component is worth now ten times because you're removing it from a configuration which already you pulled out the other component. Now, this is a very clear example. Nobody would do that. But the same kind of, you know, upheaval in rankings will occur in components less obvious and certainly not tied to tech specs. That's why we consider this issue important insofar as how it was being addressed, okay. And those numbers are very representative. I mean, again, I gave you numbers for the original (**inaudible**) because they are known. MR. HOLAHAN: This is Gary Holahan. I think we have some confusion on a point. The licensees who have either an on line risk monitor or who precalculate, you know, maintenance configurations, you know, calculate them with multiple pieces of equipment out of service. It's not a matter of adding, you know, the importance measures together. The calculations are actually done with the multiple pieces of equipment out of service. For licensees who use some sort of matrix or look-up table, they are restricted to use those pre-analyzed configurations. And so if they take three things out of service at the same time, and they don't have a matrix that covers three at the same time, they can't use that matrix, okay. So I, you know, I don't share your concern that there's things going on that are not being analyzed. DR. BONACA: Well, the way you explained it is different from what I heard before. MR. HOLAHAN: Well, we have with us a number of the people who inspected all those plants I think-- DR. APOSTOLAKIS: This is a good example, though, of what I was trying to talk about to the Commissioners this morning -- that the sense that the guy has the PRA has more freedom to things. There is a clear benefit. MR. HOLAHAN: Well, I think that's a different issue. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: No, it's not a different issue, and this is a good example of that. [Laughter.] Because you're saying that the guy who doesn't use the PRA, has a matrix is restricted to that. MR. HOLAHAN: Yes. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: Well. MR. HOLAHAN: Yes. So he has less freedom. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: Except to have freedom to do more of those seems to me to be a benefit. MR. HOLAHAN: It is. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: Yes, and that's what I'm saying. MR. HOLAHAN: And that's why many licensees have done it. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: Yes, but the thing that bothers me, though, coming back to the same issue is when I go to Section 1.2, Risk Significant Configurations. It's two paragraphs, one very long. So it says, a risk significant configuration is one, and this is a standard risk definition. Two, a configuration that would significantly affect the performance of safety functions. That's all. Then the rest of the discussion is on risk criteria--conditional core damage probability, and so on. Where is the similar analogous discussion on a configurations that would significantly affect the performance of safety functions without quantifying risk? Where in the document can I find that and say, yes, even those guys are doing something similar? MR. CORREIA: Since we are pursing endorsement of the NEI guidance document, that is-- MR. HOLAHAN: 11.3 MR. CORREIA: Addressed in 11.3.4.2, page 6. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: Yes. MR. HOLAHAN: And 10.7. MR. CORREIA: And it takes basically the same approach as the guidance for shutdown conditions. It's considering the impact on plant safety functions and other considerations--redundancy, duration, compensatory measures, contingencies, protective actions--all those things combined. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: Is this really -- is attachment two? MR. CORREIA: I think it's Section 11.2, NEI guidance document? DR. WONG: Yes, I think it's attachment two. MR. HOLAHAN: I don't have the letter. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: And which section was this? DR. WONG: 11.3.4.2. DR. POWERS: It starts on page five. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: 11.3.4.2 of the technical considerations. So, now again, I think that it will be much easier for someone to consider the degree of redundancy, appropriate compensatory measures, contingencies and so on than to actually quantify these things. So I don't see what incentive I would have to quantify anything. Isn't it easier to say, yeah, I identified the key safety functions, and I considered the degree of redundancy. What does that mean? It seems to me that there is a imbalance between the two approaches. And then in the main body, it says-- MR. BARTON: Do you mean back in the reg guide, George? DR. APOSTOLAKIS: Back in the reg guide, page four. The scope of the assessment may be limited to structure, systems, and components that the risk-informed evaluation process has shown to be significant to public health and safety. So my risk-informed evaluation process can be qualitative. MR. CORREIA: Not following the guidance that we have. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: Not following-- MR. CORREIA: Because right now we've defined the -- one method of determining what that scope would be is a high safety significant SSCs that maintenance rule has already identified, which includes consideration of risk insights, anything modeled in the PRA. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: But the previous page, it says, these assessments do not necessarily require that the quantitative assessment of probabilistic risk be performed. MR. CORREIA: That's true -- for the assessments. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: But your answers says that it has already been done. MR. CORREIA: No, the scope versus the assessment. Two different pieces of the rule. Scope may be limited using a risk-informed evaluation process, versus what the assessment -- how the assessment needs to be performed. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: Well, it says here, assessing the current plant configuration is intended to ensure that the plant maintenance configurations do not have a significant effect on the performance of key plant safety functions. These assessments do not necessarily require a PRA. MR. CORREIA: Correct. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: But then the scope that the -- a risk-informed evaluation process-- MR. CORREIA: If a licensee chooses to limit the scope, then they have to use a risk-informed evaluation process. They don't have to. That's an option. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: All right. MR. CORREIA: They can chose to include the whole scope of the maintenance rule, and that's deterministically described in the rule itself. MR. HOLAHAN: So, George, with respect to your concern about encouraging people to use PRAs, that last sentence in the maintenance rule says you can reduce the scope of what's covered by the maintenance rule probably by quite a lot, maybe by two-thirds, maybe by 75 percent. But how do you do that? You do it with the PRA. It's the one and only way suggested. MR. BOGER: That's the scope of the equipment that you have to consider in the-- MR. HOLAHAN: That's a pretty good encouragement. DR. POWERS: A good point. MR. HOLAHAN: And although I agree with your concern in principle, I think in reality what will happen is the licensees will have a PRA because they want to take advantage of that last sentence. They'll have a PRA because they want to be in the position of addressing risk significance of inspection findings. They have a number of reasons why they want to have a PRA. Once you have it, once you have the infrastructure, it's not so hard, you know, to use it for maintenance rule, for risk-informed activities, for a lot of other things. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: Right. MR. HOLAHAN: So if you pick up one rule or one page of one rule and say, you know, does this page itself encourage or discourage having a PRA, I think you don't get the whole story. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: And I don't intend to do that. But the thing is I think the example -- what you pointed out just now is very good. Somehow I missed that when I read this. You're confident that all the utilities will not miss it; that the message is there. Or, with practice, they will realize-- MR. HOLAHAN: I'm positive-- DR. UHRIG: When word gets around. MR. HOLAHAN: I'm confident that the utilities will figure out how to reduce the scope of the maintenance rule by recorders, yes. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: By the way, I hope that everyone understands why-- MR. HOLAHAN: Just the assessment. UNKNOWN SPEAKER: How much. MR. HOLAHAN: Oh, the assessment part, sure. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: The use of PRA should be encouraged. It's not just, you know, to introduce a new technology. There is much more information there than in a traditional analysis. MR. CORREIA: And we've seen that through implementation of the other parts of the maintenance rule, where risk insights were used for risk ranking determinations, monitoring situations. It was a very useful tool, with useful insights, that helped utilities and our inspectors do just that. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: Anyway, I promise you that you will get the same comments every time I see a document that has a sentence PRA is only a two-- MR. HOLAHAN: Yes, sir. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: I'm sick and tired of PRAs only a two-- DR. WALLIS: George, it's not having more information. With a PRA, there is a direct link between these evaluation of components and strategies and managing and so on and public safety. There's actually the connection made, and with the deterministic regulations, you cannot see the clear link between what's specified and the effects on public safety. DR. POWERS: Well, Graham, I get -- I think that it cuts both ways. And one of the things that I think we have to worry about, not in the context so much of this rule, but in a broader context sometimes is that we have plants that were designed, developed, in a subsystem by subsystem by plant basis. We can now analyze them as a coherent whole. And when you do that, you identify subsets of things that did not need to be covered by the maintenance rule. Just as Mr. Holahan pointed out, the PRA can reduce the scope. But when somebody looks from the outside and says, gee, the NRC's not holding the licensees' feet to the fire on these things, on many of these systems now, because of some argument by risk. And that sounds bad to me. And I'm wondering how we convince people that, in fact, by going to the PRA framework, we're actually improving the safety and not cutting back. DR. WALLIS: It's the word safety instead of risk. DR. POWERS: I think that -- well, I think there's some mileage there, but I think it's -- it is, indeed, showing then that with the PRA, there, indeed, is so much more information than there is with the traditional approach. And we understand the system better. DR. WALLIS: It's a measure of safety. It's a measure of public safety. The word risk is being used all the time. Really, it's a measure of safety. It's telling the public how safe the plants are. It's a safety probabilistic analysis. DR. POWERS: You're running into the language that leads the industry to call it a PSA instead of a PRA. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: Are we discussing this document as whole? I think we are. We have destroyed your presentation. [Laughter.] MR. CORREIA: Not a problem. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: For the life of me, I don't understand the definition of the unavailability. The proposed definition -- equipment of out service is considered unavailable. Now, just tell me what dictionary would accept that as a definition? I can't -- is there a tax imposed on people when they use the probability? Is there something that causes -- inflicts pain? I don't understand this. To say a definition is when equipment are out of service, and then go on to say support system unavailability may count -- may be counted against either the support system or the front-line systems. All these under definition. I -- it's very simple. It's a function of tying the things up. Why is it so difficult for people to understand that? I -- it's beyond me. And then credit for a dedicated local operator can be taken. That's part of the definition. Now, you might say this is not the right title for this subsection, but is it so difficult to give a definition, to start with a definition and say the fraction of time the thing is up is called the availability. And you calculate it by taking the ratio that you have here. And now, what are the things that affect that thing, and list everything else. And now, you know, and then maybe in five years instead of fraction of time, we'll say the probability. It's beyond me why we have to distort -- and then in the main text, it says, availability is the time the SSC is capable of performing its intended function, expressed as a fraction. It's the time expressed as a fraction. DR. KRESS: A fraction of something. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: It's a fraction of -- it's actually the fraction. DR. WALLIS: It's not using decimals. [Laughter.] DR. POWERS: George, this has a unit problem here. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: I'm having a big problem here. What's wrong with saying the availability is a fraction of time that the SSC's functional, capable of performing it intended function? Is there problem with that? MR. SCOTT: Yes. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: Yes, what is that? MR. SINGH: Wayne? MR. SCOTT: I'm Wayne Scott with NRR. I can only say that it's a function -- it's a practical measure. In the power plants, they don't go out with a little fraction measuring device. They go out with a watch, a stop watch, a clock. And they measure hours. That's the issue. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: No, that's not an issue. MR. SCOTT: Well. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: That's how you measure it. But that doesn't define it. The definition is the fraction. DR. WALLIS: You divide one set of hours by another set of hours, and you get something to (**inaudible**). DR. APOSTOLAKIS: What? DR. WALLIS: Yes, you-- DR. APOSTOLAKIS: What is the availability of this piece of equipment? The definition is you go out with a stopwatch and measure this and you divide by that, is that the definition? The definition is that if I consider a long period of time, the fraction of time that-- DR. WALLIS: That's in the denominator. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: These are the details of how you calculate it. DR. WALLIS: Well, I think George is right. It's obvious. Let's fix it. DR. CORREIA: And we will fix that, and we'll advise NEI to fix it also. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: I mean, the fraction that is here is correct. But that's the definition actually. That's the definition: up time divided by total time. DR. POWERS: Please continue. MR. CORREIA: Thank you. We have been -- since our last meeting, we have been looking at NEI's Section 11 guidance document for this rule change as well as working on our own draft guide, which you have -- which you see is an early October version that you have before you. Again, our objectives for this regulatory guide was to endorse acceptable industry practices. We weren't out to create something new. We looked at every plant in the country, and I think what we're trying to capture here are what we believe are the better existing practices, with this should to shall requirement. Then since the Commission has given or will be giving industry a option to reduce scope, the guidance needed to have a methodology to define that scope. We believe it's there. Again, I believe it all can be accomplished using existing information and tools that the utilities have. One of the items that the Commission directed the staff to do was to interact with stakeholders. We have spent all of the summer and some of this season interacting with NEI and utilities and the public on the NEI-proposed guidance. We've had four public meetings with NEI on these issues. NEI also sponsored a -- what I consider -- a well attended workshop, though hurricane shortened, workshop in Miami. Got a lot of good feedback from utilities at the workshop on what our proposals were, what NEI was proposing, and we did take those into consideration as we continued on in the process. And we have looked at, to date, five revisions of the NEI guidance. So we were -- we are working very closely with NEI--lots of discussions, lots of give and take on what is a reasonable way to develop guidance to implement this rule. DR. POWERS: You've been careful -- at general times in your language to say that you've interacted with stakeholders. MR. CORREIA: Yes. DR. POWERS: And not just NEI by itself. Did you have significant interactions with people who would usually be categorized as public? MR. CORREIA: No, not really. DR. POWERS: In other words, this issue could be just a little more -- a little too arcane for that forum, though Hub Miller has told me up in Region I he has an extremely sophisticated public up there. So they may be able to approach this. What was the situation? MR. CORREIA: Not really. No. DR. POWERS: Okay. MR. CORREIA: Not anyone outside the nuclear industry community, no. DR. POWERS: There didn't seem to be -- he said -- I mean, it is a little arcane. I mean, it's a detail that may elude non-specialists? MR. CORREIA: I believe that's the case. And I think considering that this I don't want to say requirement, but this recommendation has already -- has been on the books for many years now, and industry is implementing it. And, in effect, this is a should to shall change, and it's being implemented we believe correctly in most cases. So I don't think it's a highly controversial issue. DR. POWERS: Well, I think, in fact, the licensees were the ones that pointed out that it said should instead of shall or vice versa. I believe they are the ones that first brought it to everybody's attention. MR. CORREIA: We recognize that this was a problem during the early stages of the baseline program. And I think at that time, industry endorsed the change, to change should to shall, yes. Where we are today. And regarding the NEI guidance document, we believe it's very close to meeting all of our needs to the point where we believe that there are no major issues remaining; that there are some minor issues or items that we still need to dialogue with NEI on reviewing their latest version. And I'll let Dr. See-Meng Wong speak to these issues right now. DR. WONG: Thank you. As Rich has stated, we have gone through five revisions of the NEI document, guidance for the implementation of the A4 assessments. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: A revision? DR. WONG: What? DR. APOSTOLAKIS: What is a revision? A new revision is a minimal change to the current document or is a negligible change? DR. POWERS: Well, I think a revision is what the authors tend to call it revision. MR. CORREIA: Right. DR. WONG: Yes. We had a lot of discussion in the concepts and the language of what we think addresses our concerns, so, in general, we think the NEI documentation, document is in consonance with the concepts that we've tried to articulate in our draft reg guides. Now the three remaining issues is this is the latest version that we have and until yesterday, we were looking at what the NEI has developed. And the three issues that we think that NEI needs to provide further clarification in their document is in the area of managing cumulative risk. While the document addresses that plants that have on line maintenance in which several SSCs are out of service should address cumulative risk and the cumulative risk impacts should be reflected in the baseline PSA, one of the statements and this is the latest statements in which they said that the threshold should be following the permanent risk change guidelines of the EPRI PSA guidelines. Here we are in somewhat disagreement because the Section 4.2.1 of the EPRI PSA guidelines that addresses permanent risk changes are based on a relative change, a percentage change. And what we would prefer is that the guidelines that we -- that licensees should be using should be the reg guide 1.174, Risk Acceptance Guidelines. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: I'm a bit confuse now. Doesn't 1.174 deal with permanent changes? DR. WONG: Yes. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: And you are now talking about on line maintenance. Is that the permanent change? DR. CORREIA: In some cases, yes. DR. WONG: In some -- we're talking about-- DR. APOSTOLAKIS: Temporary? No? MR. HOLAHAN: No, typically it would be a temporary change. No, what we're talking about is the case in which a licensee has put into practice, okay, a long-term plan for taking equipment out of service. You don't need to deal with those as temporary conditions, since it's -- you know -- since it's a long-term plan, you can pre-calculate that in the baseline program. DR. POWERS: And, in fact, you do. I mean ordinarily you would? MR. HOLAHAN: Yes. DR. POWERS: Because you would have the availabilities would be affected by your-- MR. HOLAHAN: Well, no, no, I think it's more subtle than that. The unavailabilities are not treated in a random fashion. The licensee has a program in which they pre-plan what to take out, in what sequence, what combinations -- you can pre-calculate that. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: Sure. But I thought in another one of the guides, not 1.174, I don't remember which one, there were some additional criteria similar to what you have here for temporary. DR. POWERS: Yes, in 1.178, they have the allowed outage type-- DR. APOSTOLAKIS: Right. So that's the one that applies here, is it not? Not the 1.174. MR. HOLAHAN: 1.17 -- in regulation 1.177, the technical specifications. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: Yes, that's the one should apply here for temporary changes, even though they are periodic or both. MR. HOLAHAN: It could. You -- I think you could do that. What we did in 1.177 is, in effect, to recognize that because it had to do with technical specifications, it was not a one-time thing. It was something that would be repeated. And you had at least a general idea of how often it would be repeated. And so rather than have a cumulative effect what we did is, in fact, we reduced the allowable risk from each individual one to recognize that it would be used multiple times in one year. That's why it's down to five times ten to the minus seven, which is, in effect, a smaller number than we would ordinarily consider. MR. BARTON: And we agreed with the staff on that, and said you should not use that for on line maintenance. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: You should not. MR. BARTON: (**inaudible**) our letters. That's right. DR. POWERS: Yes, we agreed because of the terribly rational way they came about the -- coming up with that five times ten to the minus seven. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: Well, it's three hours. DR. POWERS: Yes, it had to do with historical outages and comparing them -- they weren't allowed -- that would get approved and what -- translating those back into a risk space--what kind of risk were they allowing those -- it was really elegantly done. That's why. DR. KRESS: I do recall that it was. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: Well, the whole point, I don't know, if you use 1.174 and you average out over the whole year those short periods of time, then unless they're not short anymore, on line maintenance then won't the effect disappear in the averaging process, in that you have to go to 1.177. The averaging is a tremendously leveling process. But that's an interesting point. I had not thought about that. At which point do you decide that some change is permanent? MR. HOLAHAN: The effective PSA application guide from as early as -- at least until 1995 -- but I think probably in the earlier drafts as well recognizes this and has a section on the subject. I believe it's the section right after they talk about guidelines for temporary changes. They suggest that it shouldn't be used for the kind of activities that are done on a repetitive nature. DR. POWERS: And that, indeed, is the advice we got from this Committee as well, I think. That's what that says. DR. KRESS: George, does that have a implicit assumption that the risk of random effects is linear with time, the longer the time you have? DR. APOSTOLAKIS: The way we're doing the calculations now, yes. DR. KRESS: And that's not right, is it? DR. APOSTOLAKIS? Huh? DR. KRESS: And that's not right, is it? DR. APOSTOLAKIS: It's not for the temporary changes probably it's not. DR. KRESS: I think there's something wrong with this process. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: But I think the fundamental thing is that if you do something only for a fraction of the time, but you do it periodically, okay, every whatever months, and you want to look at the total CDF for the year, then, of course, there -- the fraction of time that it's there is important, right? DR. KRESS: Yes. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: So that tends to reduce the impact that such a spike might have on the average. DR. KRESS: Yes, but when you put it into the CDF, say-- DR. APOSTOLAKIS: Yes. DR. KRESS: It's only a linear average? DR. APOSTOLAKIS: Everything is linear here. It's a linear average. Exactly. DR. KRESS: And I'm asking you if that's the correct way to average those kind of things in, because the risk of -- is actually that's an issue at the time. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: During those temporary situations, I think you can make a good case arguing-- DR. KRESS: The time is shorter-- DR. APOSTOLAKIS: That it's non-linear in time. It's non-linear in time. But we don't do that. We just take the duration. DR. KRESS: Is it something worth worrying about or is it? DR. APOSTOLAKIS: In the old scheme of things probably not at this point. MR. HOLAHAN: In the past, maybe we should have worried about it, but now we have the maintenance rule, and its assessment of the configuration risk to deal with that issue. It will prevent licensees from, you know, from, in effect, taking that maintenance activity and doing it at some random time. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: Well, that's not what Dr. Kress is talking about. I think you are talking about during that short time, the several hours, say, when I'm doing something, isn't the risk actually a non-linear function of time? DR. KRESS: Yes, that's exactly what I had. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: And I believe it is. MR. SIEBER: Sure. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: There's human errors, for example, probably are -- but we are not calculating on that. And it's probably a second order effect. DR. KRESS: Yes, that's what I was asking. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: Probably a second order effect. DR. KRESS: Is it a significant effect we have? DR. APOSTOLAKIS: So the averaging process is already -- because after all, you know, a lot of the stuff we're doing is averaging time -- the unavailability that we use -- excuse me, the time expressed as a fraction that we use is actually an average over time. So in some instances is higher than what we use. DR. POWERS: We need to progress. DR. WONG: Yes, this is one example. And another example that I'd like to bring to the table for discussion is are -- in the NEI document, there is a statement on configuration-specific CDF of -- in excess of 10 e (**check word**) minus three that if the licensee voluntarily enters into this configuration, they should be very careful. They should -- go into very short time. Here, our issue here is that this is interim guidance, and there is pending development of the safety goal assessments, and we-- DR. POWERS: What the licensee is doing is he's risk capping. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: Right. DR. GONG: Yes. DR. POWERS: And you're telling him that you're going to come up with a better risk cap for him? MR. HOLAHAN: No, what we're telling him is the issue of risk capping, which we've discussed with the Committee on a number of occasions is an open issue. DR. POWERS: That's right. And he's voluntarily doing a risk capping. MR. HOLAHAN: Right. DR. POWERS: Because he's a smart guy. MR. HOLAHAN: He's a smart guy. Yes, well, of course, we may all agree later that it could have been capped at some better point, or maybe the cap isn't needed at all. But for now, we just want to -- we don't want to use this as the mechanism for deciding definitively an issue that I think is before this Committee and the Commission on a -- in other venues. DR. POWERS: I think I understand what you're saying, but I surely admire the fact that he's risk capped. MR. HOLAHAN: Which has been in the PSA application guides all along. DR. WALLIS: Can I ask you something now? Now, when you've done all this, what has been achieved? Can you put this on some scale of achievement, like you have now reduced the risk to the public during maintenance by some amount by doing this? MR. CORREIA: I don't know if we can say we can reduce it; certainly, manage it at reasonable or relatively low levels. You hope that maintenance is achieving or maintaining equipment reliability at the minimum expense of unavailability. DR. POWERS: I think that the NRC staff can pat itself on the back and take a great deal of credit for being responsive in an evolving environment. We have machines whose design was based on doing the maintenance largely during shutdown. People doing that have found that there are advantages, both economic and from a risk perspective, to doing some of that maintenance during normal operation. And the staff has found a way to examine this and to construct their regulations so that it's permissible for the licensees to do this. DR. WALLIS: I think it would be very nice if they could have put it on a scale that's understandable to the average person, which says that we have saved the industry X dollars, and at the same time we have increased public safety by Y, on some scale. Because it sounds good, but is it important or not? I mean, I don't know. DR. KRESS: Would that you require to calculate the risk with and without this rule being present in its present form? DR. WALLIS: Yes. DR. KRESS: I don't think -- I don't really think you can do that. DR. WALLIS: I think you should do that for every time you write some new rule or make some legislation or make some new hoops for people to jump through or remove some old hoops, you should put it on a scale of meaningfulness to public safety and cost. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: I am convinced even without the quantitative estimate that this is a good thing. DR. POWERS: Well, I think it's there already. I think if you look at the statements of consideration-- DR. APOSTOLAKIS: Yes, it's a good thing. DR. POWER: That what you're asking for is right there in the rule. MR. HOLAHAN: Yes. DR. WALLIS: Is it a minimally good thing or is it significant? I don't know. MR. BARTON: Greater than minimal. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: If you quantified it, it is 10 percent improvement. MR. SIEBER: Greater than negligible. DR. POWERS: Well, I think -- no, I think this is outstanding. MR. CORREIA: It has a net safety benefit compared to the cost, yes. DR. UHRIG: Well, it's also the backbone of the management of aging. On the basis that is -- the records associated with the maintenance rule are important in the considerations of what has to be done in license renewal. MR. CORREIA: Yes, and the Commission has given licensees a lot of credit in license renewal space for what they do under the maintenance rule. Sure. That's very true. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: There is something about this I don't like, though. I mean, I know it's minor. I don't like seeing things like regulatory guide 1.174 versus PSA applications guide. I really don't like seeing that because 1.174 may we put in the word for this new issue the approach of this versus the approach of that--something like that. Because when I saw this, I said, gee, you know, all of a sudden the PSA applications guide is challenging 1.174. That's not what you meant? DR. WONG: No, no, that not what we meant. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: I know you didn't mean that. DR. POWERS: I think you're overly sensitive. [Laughter.] DR. APOSTOLAKIS: Today, I'm so sensitive. I'm completely '90s guy. DR. WONG: Okay, the-- MR. HOLAHAN: But, but-- DR. WONG: Go ahead. MR. HOLAHAN: Just to challenge your sensitivity a bit. These two documents are not entirely separable at this point, okay, because, in fact, what's happening is the NEI guidance is referencing the PSA applications guide, and we're being asked in the staff's guidance document to endorse that, okay. So it would bring at least that piece of the PSA applications guide into a regulatory guidance document. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: Yes, but it's not versus 1.174. I mean, it's not opposing 1.174. MR. HOLAHAN: Well, it is -- with respect to the-- DR. APOSTOLAKIS: Okay, it's not worth pursuing. DR. POWERS: That's true now that you've raised it. DR. WONG: Okay, the final item that we think is a minor issue -- this is on -- I think on page eight of the final draft of the NEI document. There is a statement that is described here. It says the shutdown assessment need not be performed for SSCs whose operability is not required by technical specifications during shutdown mode. And the words here operability, we would prefer that functionality is not required and scratch out or delete the term tech specs because the tech specs branch does not agree to that. MR. HOLAHAN: Well, I think the issue is I think we all know that safety during shutdown is not really being controlled by technical specifications, but by-- MR. BARTON: That's right. MR. HOLAHAN: Configuration controls, you know, being done by other industry programs. DR. SEALE: Read what it is want to say again. DR. WONG: Of what we want to say? DR. SEALE: Yes. DR. WONG: What we want to say is that the shutdown assessment need not be performed for SSCs whose functionality is not required during shutdown mode. So it takes away the questions of whether it's tech spec or not. Okay? DR. SEALE: Okay. MR. HOLAHAN: Well, it says required. The idea is that the equipment is necessary for the functions that are important for shutdown. So it's a -- we don't want to tie it to regulatory requirements since we don't think those do very well for shutdowns. We want to try it too, you know, functional requirements. DR. POWERS: And I agree with you -- it should be a very minor requirement, and you are to be congratulated for being scrupulous in your examination. MR. HOLAHAN: Okay. DR. WONG: Okay. MR. CORREIA: Thank you. Given that and those we believe are the three issues that we still are dialoguing with NEI on, our plans are to finalize our draft guide endorsing what we hope will be a soon-to-be-again revised NEI guidance document that incorporates these changes and to issue the draft guide for public comment, because we still have not got to that point yet. DR. KRESS: How will you deal with the ten to the minus three? Would you like for them to just remove it or would you? MR. CORREIA: No, acknowledge the fact that this is still under Commission review, and it may change in the future. DR. KRESS: It's just an acknowledgment in the endorsement? MR. CORREIA: Yes. We have still quite a lot to do. As you can see, this is our schedule to the point where the reg guide and the rule would become final. We're meeting with the Commission next week on this very subject. They want to see the draft guide soon. We've committed to get that to them by the end of this month, and have by the middle of next month the draft guide that's out for a 30-day public comment period. And early next year, we'll be back here again to tell you what the final guide looks like. So this is an important step, but we -- I believe that we're sufficiently close enough for the NEI guidance document that we would like to move forward and continue the process and have the -- let the public take a look at it and get their feedback. And hopefully, next spring the Commission will have it for them to decide on whether or not it's acceptable. DR. WALLIS: Do you seriously expect any public comment except from the utilities? DR. APOSTOLAKIS: No. MR. CORREIA: There are a few organizations that always comment on our reg guides. We expect that. I would think since we're endorsing or attempting to endorse an industry guidance document, we wouldn't receive many comments other than specific, maybe word changes, or things like that, but certainly not many negative comments, no -- I don't believe. Yes. MR. SIEBER: Since you still have a couple of minor outstanding items, do you expect a letter from the ACRS at this point in time? MR. CORREIA: If, well -- I think we need something. Certainly, if we can get these minor changes resolved, if we can't, we would address them in our reg guide as clarifications-- MR. SIEBER: Right. Exceptions, clarifications, or whatever. MR. CORREIA: Exceptions, yes. MR. SIEBER: Sure. MR. CORREIA: So one way or the other, either NEI puts them in their guidance document to our satisfaction or we put them in our draft guide. MR. SIEBER: Okay. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: So are you asking for a letter? MR. CORREIA: Yes. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: This time? MR. CORREIA: Yes. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: Just to say whether you should go out for public comment? MR. CORREIA: Yes. That's our goal at this time. MR. BARTON: But whether I guess they are far enough along and the issues remaining are minor enough that they can proceed. I guess that's what they're looking for. If we can come to that conclusion, that's what they're looking for. DR. POWERS: Well, I think we -- I mean they're going up to talk to the Commissioners to ask them to come here and talk to us. I think we just owe them a response, and it should be an easy one for us. MR. CORREIA: Any other comments? DR. APOSTOLAKIS: Now, the -- I guess a different font indicates this is NEI attachment two? MR. CORREIA: Yes. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: It talks about incremental core damage probability, okay, not as a time expressed as a fraction. So it doesn't hurt to use the word probability. [Laughter.] And second-- MR. BARTON: What page you on, George? DR. APOSTOLAKIS: Fourteen. I would really like to see appendix B be burned in public. [Laughter.] MR. SINGH: He's coming back, George. NEI is here. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: It doesn't matter. The other thing is just as a side comment, the ACRS wrote a letter last month listing a series of problems with importance measures. I think the ICDP and the ILR take care of a lot of those concerns. It's a step forward, because the relative measures, you subtract and so on. There are still some issues that are valid, but I think some of the gross -- by the way, not gross -- I've been chastised for that word -- the big problems -- some of the big problems go away when you go to these-- DR. SHACK: Crudeness was your other one. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: Crudeness, yes, that was what the committee finally came up with. Okay, so that's just a comment, though there are ways around those problems. MR. BARTON: Any other questions of the staff at this time? Thank you, Rich. If not we'll hear from industry next. MR. CORREIA: Thank you. DR. WONG: Thank you. DR. POWERS: Bonjour, Tony. MR. PETRANGELO: Good afternoon. My name is Tony Petrangelo. I'm from NEI. This is Biff Bradley from NEI. Our purpose today is really to tie a big bow around what that staff just told you, and maybe give you a little bit more background and perspective on how we got to this point. First of all, let me talk a little bit about the industry guidance. We've been working on that for quite some time, really since last summer before even the rule came out for public comment. Biff chairs our maintenance rule provision task force. That's been in place for a couple of years. They took the first crack at revising the guidance. They also helped us draft the industry comments on the proposed rule. We did send drafts of the guidance out for industry comment as well as to the NRC staff, before we sent the draft in September to the staff. We also conducted a workshop in Miami in September. Got a lot of good feedback there on the guidance that led to the latest interactions with the staff. Let me go back to the rule -- that's how we got the guidance to the point where it's at. I mean, we don't just sit downtown and make this up as we go along. We get a lot of-- MR. BARTON: Thank you for clarifying that. [Laughter.] MR. PETRANGELO: We got a lot of input from our members. We can't do our job without them, and we take their comments very seriously and try to address them all. So what you see reflects a great deal of industry participation. With regard to the-- DR. POWERS: But when we send it out for public comments, we wouldn't expect any of your members to comment on it-- MR. PETRANGELO: You may get some very short comment letters saying go for it. DR. POWERS: We love it, and things like that, sure. Okay. MR. PETRANGELO: Because it's been around once. And that's the way we wanted it, quite frankly. We didn't want the public comment period, at least from the industry perspective to be, give the staff a lot of work to do. Our objective has been to get a regulatory guide that endorses our guidance without exception, and it still is our objective. And I think we're very, very close to that now. Just background wise, with regard to the revised rule in A4. If you take it at its highest level, you know, this started as a should to shall exercise, the old rule, what was then A3, said licensees should conduct this assessment when they remove equipment from service, okay. Once the rule became effective, then there was a concern about enforceability of that provision of the rule, because it was a should with an exhortation and not a requirement. The industry has never opposed to changing that to shall. We've always treated it as a requirement because it's in the rule. The staff inspected to it in the field, even though they couldn't issue violations because of that concern, they did confirm that everybody is, in fact, complying with that portion of the rule. Now, did they find some weaknesses associated with that? Yes, they did. So this -- in the future, if somebody decided not to do this anymore, now they will have the provision to enforce it. But it wasn't just as simple as should to shall. It never is. And the Commission I think also was trying to address a concern about well, once a licensee does the assessment, there's no requirement for them to do anything with the results of the assessment. That's where this second provision of the rule came in. So at its highest level, the rule now requires you to do the assessment, and also requires you to use the results of the assessment. It is still a performance-based rule. It is not prescriptive about what tools you use to do the assessment, okay. But it simply requires you to do one. And just to get to George's point, because I think it was a very good one about the use of PSA in the regulatory process. Our position has always been that the Commission should be encouraging the use of PSA and the regulatory process. That's what that entire PSA policy statement is about, is encouraging that use and using that tool -- yes, it is a tool -- I didn't want to bring it up, George, but it is a tool. It is a means to an end, not an end in itself. And as a regulatory agency, because of its -- the -- what it brings to the table in terms of insights, they should be encouraging licensees to use it. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: But, Tony, my objection -- I think that the industry is reacting to perhaps the fear or responding to the fear that they will be forced to have PRAs soon, so you guys don't miss an opportunity to put it down; that -- in this -- and maybe it's unintentional, but I read documents from NEI, and I know that within the first two or three pages, I will see (**inaudible**) statements that I can do this without the PRA, and don't forget PRA is only a tool. Well, you know, it is a tool, but my goodness, it has so much information. It looks at the thing in a different way. I agree that a lot of these things we're doing now you should not be able to do only if you had the PRA. I agree with that. But this constant putting down. I think if you do a PRA, as Gary said earlier, your life should become easier. You know, you go through this initial effort. You have to educate your people, train them, spend the money, but then you can do a lot of things in an easier way. MR. PETRANGELO: Right. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: And I bring up the example of 5059. If it was up to me and you had a good PRA, anything that doesn't change the CDF more than ten to minus six, go ahead and do it. MR. PETRANGELO: Right. Yes. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: See that's my-- MR. PETRANGELO: Yes, I understand where you're coming from on that, but don't misunderstand why we say that, okay. We represent-- DR. APOSTOLAKIS: I understand that-- MR. PETRANGELO: All of industry. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: We are so understanding, you and I. [Laughter.] MR. BRADLEY: Also, specific to A4, don't forget that portions of the scope are outside the PSA, so you have to use some other approach. For instance, if you don't have a shutdown PSA, you don't -- and also, you can confuse PSA with qualitative versus quantitative and if you read in our guidance, we talk about using qualitative insights out of the PSA, you know, and it's not a matter of using the PSA or not, but how you use it. And, you know, you can get a lot qualitatively-- MR. PETRANGELO: Right. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: I fully agree with you. I fully agree with you. But I think, and these are legitimate reasons, but I think you guys have gone too far the other way. MR. PETRANGELO: But let me counter that by saying, we lobbied very, very hard for this provision that got into A4 about a risk-informed process for narrowing the scope of the assessment. The staff wasn't going to do that. Okay, and in fact, you heard the last discussion on that, just before that rule change was made. Okay, we were vociferous about that, because we wanted something in the rule that would encourage licensees to use their risk assessment. We've been trying -- I mean this goes back a number of years, George, and you've heard this in a number of your subcommittee meetings, trying to get a return on the investment in that tool. And this is one that bridges -- we think -- bridges the gap between the deterministic and moving to risk-informed Part 50. Even though the staff I think was going to do it anyway in the guidance, we wanted it in the rule. We wanted it explicit. And so I think Gary answered the question right. That is the encouragement, by putting that provision in the rule with regard to the scope of the A4 assessment. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: Would it be inappropriate, Gary -- perhaps even illegal -- to have somewhere in here -- I'm trying to address the concern that Dr. Wallis and I have expressed many times. I find, as a prelude, I find ourselves here too often having you and others say, but the real intent is this, but this, but that. In other words, you have to explain, interpret, what's in the written document. Why can't we have a section some place that says, this is really what we're trying to do. And also, if you have the PRA, these are the additional things you can do. Is that inappropriate? DR. POWERS: That's what the statement of considerations is. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: But that's part here, is it? DR. POWERS: Well, I mean, how many places do I have to write these things, to say -- to write the ode to PRA in every thing that I write? I mean, I'm going to put it on the letter. [Laughter.] DR. APOSTOLAKIS: Explain to me, please, what the role of the statement of considerations is-- MR. PETRANGELO: It's to provide context for what went into the rule. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: After this becomes part of the regulations? MR. PETRANGELO: No, the reg guides -- should put this back in context. The reg guide is a way to meet-- DR. APOSTOLAKIS: Of the rule? Yes. MR. PETRANGELO: The rule. That's all. That's all the reg guide does. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: So the statement of considerations, if I go there now, will tell me what the advantages of using the PRA are? MR. PETRANGELO: No. It will explain what the intent of the rule is. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: Intent I agree. MR. PETRANGELO: Right. You need to go back to the PSA policy statement that the staff worked so hard on, and that you reviewed. I mean, that's where you're going to find the stuff you're looking for, I think. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: No, that's not quite right. In this specific rule, what advantage do I get by doing it? But anyway -- I guess that's a minority view. DR. SHACK: A vociferous minority view-- [Laughter.] DR. POWERS: I mean, I think -- I think you protesteth too much on this. I think you may be protesting too much-- MR. PETRANGELO: But I understand the point-- DR. POWERS: Beginning to suspect -- MR. PETRANGELO: And don't disagree with, Paul. DR. POWERS: (**inaudible**) as useful as we thought. DR. APOSTOLAKIS: I was reading again last night the other NEI document, and when I saw, you know, PRAs only at two, I asked the pilot to stop. I want to get out. [Laughter.] Enough said. Thank you. DR. POWERS: They paid no more attention to you than we do, right? MR. PETRANGELO: Let me move on. DR. POWERS: Thank you. MR. PETRANGELO: We talked about the rule making, and our commenting on it, and why we felt so strongly about that provision of the rule. And we were pleased with the way the rule came out. The next job, of course, was getting guidance that the staff could endorse. And, again, our objective has always been to get them to endorse our guidance without exception. The main issue, okay, that came up, and it came up with this Committee I think when the rule was finalized, was the issue of the scope of the assessment. MR. BARTON: Right. MR. PETRANGELO: This -- ACRS was very concerned about the scope and how licensees would take into account the configuration risk assessment, and what you looked at. MR. BARTON: Right. MR. PETRANGELO: The -- and what we proposed to the staff is to use the Level 1 PSA as well as the -- what we term in the guidance document -- the high safety significant SSCs that were identified by the expert panel. Most of those HSSCs overlap what was already considered in the scope of the Level 1 PSA. But the expert panel could also add SSCs that weren't in the Level 1 PSA, and pick up Level 2 considerations, pick up external events, pick up some other things. We think that's a very, very good comprehensive, conservative scope for that assessment. And that just applies to A4. It does not apply -- the whole scope of the rule has not changed. Hopefully, risk-informing Part 50 will change that to something very, very similar, if not identical, to what we came up with this. The relative ranking, all that stuff doesn't matter, in the A4 scope, okay. That was done to address with the big maintenance rule scope at which level you were going to monitor the SSCs at--at the plant level, at the train level, and so forth. Okay. When we're looking at the scope of the A4 assessment, those rankings don't matter any more, because everything's already in the scope. So we think it's a very, very conservative scope; that it takes into account the combination question that the committee raised, and we're very comfortable with it. And it's identical to what was approved or identified as an acceptable method within the configuration risk management program that reg guide 1.177 identified. So there's some consistency with what was done in the past. So we're quite please with that part, also. The question going forward, and I think this is on the mind of all licensees, and it -- we're still carrying a little bit of baggage from the maintenance rule baseline inspections is what happens when you take this out to the field? I mean, we had endorsed guidance before, and we got into all sorts of questions on scope with the maintenance rule, and other questions about the criteria that were established. And there were three or four very thorny issues that came up during the inspection process. So our objective not only is to get the guidance endorsed without exception, but longer term is to get stable and predictable implementation of the rule. And there's a lot at stake. If this goes the way the first round went with the maintenance rule, no one's going to want to do risk-informing Part 50. Okay. So the proof's in the pudding here. That was another reason why we lobbied so hard to get that provision in the rule, because we see it as a step towards that end. And if we can't do it in the maintenance rule, and get focused and get efficient, then the prospects for risk-informing Part 50 are bleak. So there was a lot of very important considerations that went into the rule. With regard to the minor exceptions that the staff went through, those are trivial. Those -- they didn't even warrant putting up on the screen. They are trivial. That's just some minor editorial word smithing. There's no substantive issue associated with any of those, and I'm not going to even get into those. So that's the extent of the bow, unless you want to add -- it's been a long, arduous effort. It's not over yet. We still have to go through the public comment period, which should be rather straightforward. And we still have to go through the implementation. And there's always bumps in that road. DR. POWERS: Yes, I guess it's the expression-- MR. PETRANGELO: We'll have another workshop with the staff hopefully to get between the lines understanding of the guidance, but we seek this very, very positively. DR. POWERS: Your prognostication on this -- where the rubber meets the road -- after 120 days after this gets approved, have you given any thought to where the difficulties are going to come? MR. PETRANGELO: Yes, I mean, even though we don't have a shutdown rule, and the shutdown piece of this really relies heavily on the industry initiative we took eight years ago on shutdown risk management. DR. POWERS: Right. MR. PETRANGELO: And our NU -- what was -- the document was NUMARC 9106. We don't have the same kind of quantitative thresholds for shutdown that we have in the on line portion. That's more of a defense in depth qualitative argument, okay. Now, it's a -- so, therefore, it's a little bit more subjective. DR. POWERS: Well, that -- I mean, but you're right. There is something that has gained a lot of currency within the licensees. I mean, they've done it enough that they -- they know how better than I know how to interpret three oranges and all greens versus one red and all greens. MR. PETRANGELO: Right. DR. POWERS: They do understand that. MR. PETRANGELO: I think what leaves me optimistic about that part is that when the staff went out and looked for the baselines, and they -- even though the rule didn't explicitly say shutdown, they looked at shutdown. DR. POWERS: Sure. MR. PETRANGELO: Okay, everybody was doing it. In fact, it was a strength at most places, and my understanding of the feedback is the way licensees planned and controlled outages, the staff wanted to see more of that rigor for the on line plants. So it kind of turned that whole argument around. And I think it speaks to how effective the initiative has been. So that's my biggest concern then this may be a no, never mind. DR. POWERS: So what you're saying is you're pretty confident this is all going to be workable. MR. BRADLEY: As confident as I think we can be. The only other issue I'd mention is there are a lot of different flavors of risk management, and, you know, how are you to address cumulative, aggregate -- you know, how you define your time, your durations and such. And we want to be able to preserve those -- a lot plants have put a lot of thought into how they do that. A lot of it's tailored to the plants own risk profiles, and such. It's really not a one size fits all. I think within the constraints of this guidance, we can all meet it, but you know, we wouldn't want the inspection process to try to drive everyone to the same exact approach on how to do this. There's variation in the baseline CDFs and LERFs and that has to be accepted and accommodated through the way the risk is managed. MR. PETRANGELO: Yes, and I failed to mention this, and I'm glad you brought it up that the overall objective with this risk management is what we're trying to achieve is that through the conduct of maintenance, licensees manage their overall baseline CDF to about where it is now and to stay around that band. Okay. That's our real objective. DR. POWERS: We are just asking them to do better? MR. PETRANGELO: That's right, and it's not -- and that's kind of the -- whether you're a ten to the minus five plant or a ten to the minus six plant, we're trying to say keep it around where you got it now due to maintenance, and manage that effectively to within a small delta around that. And we have the guidelines in here, both from an instantaneous standpoint as well as a cumulative standpoint to guide licensees in doing that. DR. WALLIS: Tony? MR. PETRANGELO: Yes. DR. WALLIS: I'd like to set a bigger perspective. It's related to the question I asked before. I'll put it a different way. You said this was changing should to shall essentially. That sounds like a tougher requirement. Shall is tougher than should. MR. PETRANGELO: It shouldn't be. DR. WALLIS: Well, it is. It is. I will say this, and this sounds like an increased burden. MR. PETRANGELO: Well, you know, what we -- that's a good question, and we looked at the regulatory analysis that the staff put together or the rule making, and they said, basically, this is trying to codify what you are already doing. So, there's certainly no intent, and as the part of the rule making to make this an added burden. DR. WALLIS: So it's really -- it's not changing anything. Except for this should-- MR. PETRANGELO: It should not be changing. DR. WALLIS: Nothing. MR. PETRANGELO: What it does -- what it does is if somebody doesn't do it later on, the staff has-- DR. WALLIS: So it is an increased burden. MR. PETRANGELO: The regulatory -- well, they've got the enforceability-- DR. WALLIS: So my point is that you are agreeing to an increased burden because you think in some way it's necessary -- increasing necessary burden has been achieved. And this means -- implies that some criterion has been used for deciding that yes, this increase in this burden is necessary. And the reason I'm asking these questions is because I want to know how to decide the other side of the coin when you come here and say, that this -- we're going to decrease some unnecessary burden. Now, what's the criterion there? Isn't it the same criterion? And what is that? MR. PETRANGELO: No, that's a good question. That's a good question. I think, and I've heard the staff answer it before that absent this provision -- I mean, if you really just got down to what tech specs would allow you to do, you could put yourself in some very risk significant configurations. So I think -- and we didn't disagree that that specter was sufficient to drive -- excuse me -- to drive the rule making from a safety perspective. Now, we were doing it anyway. It was in the rule. It just said should. We treated it as a requirement. DR. WALLIS: So this is increasing burden, which was easy to do. MR. PETRANGELO: No. MR. BRADLEY: Well, somewhere in the statements of consideration or somewhere it said there was concern that over time licensees might back track or under competitive pressures rethink, you know, their programs or whatever. It was more just to capture on a -- in a permanent way what was being done to keep it from degrading -- I think somewhere it was expressed that way. MR. PETRANGELO: You know the dilemma you get in is unless what -- because the plants -- I mean, we've gone through a bunch of history now. The plants are pretty darn safe. It's very hard to cost justify new requirements unless they don't add much burden. DR. WALLIS: I see. Well, that's the easy ones. If everything is as easy as that, because you're really not making much change in-- MR. PETRANGELO: Well, you've either got to show a huge change and say, or a small burden-- DR. WALLIS: You're going to into situations where you're going to have to face up to defining things like necessary burden. MR. PETRANGELO: Yes. DR. WALLIS: Much more clearly than this one, where everyone seems to agree it's a nice thing to do. That's well -- the only way you can do it. MR. BRADLEY: That's right. That's right. MR. REINHART: If I could interject on your nickel here, Tony. This is Mark Reinhart of the NRC staff. Our perspective of this should to shall was really three things. We knew the industry wanted the shall, and one of the reasons they wanted it is to get credit for what they were doing in a regulatory space. So in a sense, it was an efficiency. Another thing, we had put the configuration risk management program in the technical specifications administrative control. Really, the industry suggested back as far as 1994 that they would like to see that come as part of the maintenance rule. So, again, it was looked at as an efficiency -- they either had to do it under the tech specs or under the maintenance rule, so by making that change, it was no real addition, but it was an efficiency in having the requirement in one place rather than two. MR. PETRANGELO: Right. DR. WALLIS: Maybe shall is always a better word than should, because it's clearer. MR. BRADLEY: Another reason to do this is -- and since Mark got up, it just occurred to me that this paths the way to do additional things with tech specs; that by having this program in place and a regulatory requirement, it allows us to relook at tech specs and -- which to some degree, duplicate the function of this rule. And those areas where this rule is the smarter way to achieve that function than tech specs, we can look at some fairly significant changes to the structure of tech specs. And in doing so, taking credit for this. So there is some -- it's not all burden, you know. There is actually some benefit to having this as a requirement versus a recommendation. MR. BARTON: Any more comments, questions of Tony or Biff? MR. PETRANGELO: We encourage the ACRS to react positively to this development. MR. BARTON: We got that message. If not, thank you very much, and, Mr. Chairman, I'll turn it back to you. DR. POWERS: Thank you, John. What I want to do at this point is to take a recess for 15 minutes. Come back. And I want to start by discussing what we want to do with regard to this letter. Give some guidance. And then proceed on with the agenda as it's presented to you. We can at this point, dispense with the transcription. [Whereupon, at 2:44 p.m., the meeting was recessed, to reconvene at 8:30 a.m., Friday, November 5, 1999.]
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