106th ACNW Meeting U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, February 23, 1999
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION *** ADVISORY COMMITTEE ON NUCLEAR WASTE 106th ACNW Meeting U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Two White Flint North Room T-2B3 11545 Rockville Pike Rockville, Maryland Tuesday, February 23, 1999 The above-entitled proceedings commenced at 8:30 a.m., pursuant to notice, B. John Garrick, chairman, presiding. MEMBERS PRESENT: George Hornberger, Vice Chairman Charles Fairhurst, Member Ray Wymer, Member Mary L. Thomas, Member PRESENT FOR THE ACNW STAFF: Dr. Larkins (EDO), Andrew Campbell, Lynn Deering, Richard K. Major ACNW CONSULTANT: Martin Steindler PRESENTERS: Richard Craun, DOE; John Greeves (Director, NRC Division of Waste Management, Division of Waste Management, Office of Nuclear Material Safety and Safeguards P R O C E E D I N G S [8:32 a.m.] DR. GARRICK: Good morning. The meeting will now come to order. This is the first day of the 106th Meeting of the Advisory Committee on Nuclear Waste. My name is John Garrick, chairman of the ACNW. Other members of the committee include George Hornberger, Ray Wymer, and Charles Fairhurst. Dr. Steindler is with us today as a consultant to the committee. The entire meeting will be open to the public. During today's meeting the committee will first discuss the Department of Energy's license application design selection process, review nuclear waste-related research and technical assistance underway in the agency in preparation for a report to the Commission on that subject, and meet with John Greeves, NRC's Director, Division of Waste Management, to discuss developments at Yucca Mountain, rules and guidance under development, resources, and other issues of mutual interest. We will be preparing for the next meeting with the Commission which will be on March 17th, 1999, and we will be discussing possible new ACNW reports on ACNW self-assessment, NRC's waste-related research and technical assistance program, DOE's viability assessment for Yucca Mountain, and a white paper on repository design issues. Richard Major is the designated federal official for the initial portion of the meeting and, as usual, this meeting is being conducted in accordance with the provisions of the Federal Advisory Committee Act. We have received no written statements from members of the public regarding today's session, and should anyone wish to address the committee, please make your wishes known to one of the committee's staff. It is requested that each speaker use one of the microphones, identify himself or herself, and speak with sufficient clarity and volume so that he or she can be readily heard. Before proceeding with the first agenda item, I would like to cover some brief items of current interest. Paul Lohaus has been appointed Director, Office of State Programs, following the retirement of Richard Bangart. New Mexico's government began hearings on February 22nd to decide whether to grant the Department of Energy a permit to begin using the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant repository. Chancellor Gerhard Stroder has delayed approval of appointments to the German Reactor Safety Commission -- this is the government's top nuclear safety advisory body. A spokesman for Stroder said that the matter may be discussed by Stroder during the next meeting of his cabinet, which maybe has taken place by now, and according to other sources, Stroder agreed to shelve 12 appointments to RSK proposed by the Federal Minister of Environment, after industry exerted pressure to block his designation of nuclear critics. A sad note. Former Congressman Morris Udahl died at age 76 from Parkinson's disease. Many consider him the father of the Low Level Radioactive Waste Policy Act. He also sponsored legislation under which Congress consented to the formation of the Southwestern Low Level Waste Compact. He represented the Tucson, Arizona congressional district from 1962 until he resigned in 1991, and was clearly a prominent figure on the Hill in the nuclear waste area. I think with that, we will get the jump on our first agenda item, which is the Department of Energy's license application design selection presentation, and I am going to ask Vice Chairman of the Committee George Hornberger to lead us in that discussion. George. DR. HORNBERGER: Thanks, John. I think we will just proceed right into the presentation by Richard Craun. MR. CRAUN: Hello, I am Richard Craun. I am with the Department of Energy, and I would like to share some information with you today on the license application design selection process. Why don't I just go ahead and get started. Today's discussion -- I wanted to give you a brief history. The effort has started a couple years ago, and I wanted to give you a brief history, I wanted to talk to some of the current schedule of status of events and give you some information on how the designs that we are looking at, how they compare to the design that was issued in the viability assessment. The design selection effort really started back in December of '97 with a working group that we called the Repository Design Alternatives Working Group. There they went through and tried to assimilate all the information they could find on the different inputs that we had on our design and came down with a series of design alternatives and design features. Now let me just take a minute and describe a design alternative. Design alternatives are a conceptual design. It's a broad, sweeping perspective of the design wherein it consists of several features to implement that alternative. So a design feature would be a smaller item within a larger set of a design alternative. A design alternative might be a high temperature design, a low temperature design, whereas a design feature may be a filler material that you would put into a waste package and/or a ceramic coating that you would put on the waste package. So it's not -- it's a smaller group, the features are, compared to the alternatives. The license application design selection process, we call it LADS, started in June of '98. Now I want to focus in on the activities before, during and after what we call an enhanced design alternative workshop, which was January 4th through the 15th. We call it an enhanced design alternative simply because it is the next generation of designs, the next generation beyond the viability assessment. So in order to present that information, I want to go through a little bit of the pre-workshop activities, which includes an independent review panel that we pulled together, the activities of the workshop, and then the post-workshop activities leading up to what we are doing right now, leading up then to the final report that should be coming out. In the April 15th timeline, we expect the M&O contractor to submit to the Department of Energy a report summarizing the designs that they have studied. Between April 15th and May 28th, the Department of Energy will review that report and make a final selection of the design to go forward with to -- the activity is entitled License Application. It's to both site recommendation and the license application, so it will be the next generation post the viability assessment, and I would also state at this time that it will continue to evolve as we go through the licensing process. But those are the major milestones, and those will come up again later on in the presentation. And I give you an overall image of the process. I put this flow diagram together, and the top three boxes are really associated with the pre-workshop activities. There we took the initial activities, the initial box was defining the design alternatives and features, and that was actually done before the LADS effort. During the LADS effort, those alternatives and features were changed. Some features were dismissed, some new features were added. We went through an evaluation process or development of an evaluation criteria for the LADS effort, and then also evaluated each DA and design alternative and design feature for the workshop. Now I will come back to this pre-workshop, I believe, on the next slide, which will give you a little more information on what that analysis consisted of. During the workshop we identified the enhanced design alternatives, the next generation of design concepts that we wanted to look at. We have developed -- we further refined -- we didn't develop new criteria, we further refined the evaluation criteria that we would use for assessing the enhanced design alternatives. This is really a break point. We are now in the process of ranking the enhanced design alternatives right now, it's in process, so that's really a post-workshop activity, and then we will come up with our final documentation which is the April and May time line, that's the level 2 and level 3 milestone for the Department of Energy. Let me give you a little more detail on the pre-workshop analysis. We have prepared what are called one-off analyses. By that, I mean we took the VA reference -- the VA base case design and we modified only one feature at a time. For example, the VA base case design is a 5/16 outer -- carbon steel outer package with an alloy 22, A-22 inner package material. For the one-off case, if we wanted to reverse that to do an alloy 22 on the outside, carbon steel on the inside, that would be the only change we made to the base case. If we added a ceramic coating to the base case analysis, it would be added to the carbon steel outer package. Now we recognized when we did that a one-off analysis has inherently some weaknesses. For example, a ceramic coating on a carbon steel outer package material will not have a very long lifetime. We don't get the full benefit of a ceramic coating. So we recognized that there were some synergisms that we would lose by doing the one-off analysis, so that was recognized during that process of performing those one-off analyses, and was discussed fairly extensively during the workshop. We went through prior to the workshop and we had nine criterion that were used. We assessed each feature and each alternative to those criterion, and that information, which I will get to a little bit later, was presented during the workshop. In addition, some of the one-off analyses that we did were just different enough that the designers had to work carefully with the PA personnel, the performance assessment personnel, to come up with the models that would allow them to come -- to prepare information on the performance of how that feature would work. And then at the very end of the process prior to the workshop we went through an elicitation process to talk to the designers and the PA personnel that were involved with the effort to get a sense for how confident are you in the results that you've predicted, because they've given us performance results, and defense-in-depth information, and as they went through that, some of the designers had a very strong sense that their modeling captured the essence of that issue very effectively, and some indicated quite clearly that the model was in its initial stages of development to the point where it was a rough approximation. So we elicited that confidence in the preworkshop activities. The Department was interested in wanting to make sure that the LADS effort was objective, transparent, and defensible. To that end we pulled together an independent review group to look at the process we were using itself. The review group met prior to the workshop. We walked them through the process that we were going to use leading up to the workshop and the process that we were going to use during the workshop. After going through that they came back with some recommendations to us prior to the workshop, and they suggested strongly that we simplify the criteria, they thought that it was too complicated, we had too many elements in it, and that the level of design detail we needed to be very cautious that we try not to make the lowest-level design decisions. In the LADS effort they suggested strongly that we look at the broader conceptual decisions that we need to make and try to make those decisions. And they also talked to us about the timing of decisions, when we need to make decisions. Many decisions can be delayed and not adversely affect our schedule. So those decisions need to be identified so that we can make them as we need them and not try to rush them, so that we can get as much information as possible. They did have some limited involvement in the EDA workshop itself. We asked those that were available -- not all were available -- to observe as much of the workshop as possible. That was that January 4 through 15 workshop that we had were we actually created the enhanced design alternatives. Now we have another workshop coming up March 8 and 9. Now that workshop will be a workshop where we actually rank the enhanced design alternatives in accordance with the criteria, and I'll show you the criteria in just a minute or two, and that workshop's coming up here shortly. And we will have some of the independent team observing that. Now during the enhanced design alternative workshop the first part of the workshop was a presentation of the one off analyses. And in those presentations they not only discussed the strengths of their analysis, but also the limitations of their analysis so that the designers that were using that information had a very clear picture of what the limited use of the limited knowledge was associated with each of those features and alternatives. That was the first day or two of the workshop. The remainder of the workshop was a brainstorming session. We focused that brainstorming session by having three design focuses. We had a high-temperature design focus, a low-temperature design focus, and an enhanced-access focus. We felt those gave us a diverse view of what we could come up with as far as a design for the repository so that we ensured that we had a wide spectrum of alternatives to consider. Initially we came up with, on the first brainstorming session, we came with 23 enhanced design alternatives. We looked at them and thought well, if we take 23 designs into our licensing process it just doesn't seem like a good success path. So we stepped back and we started looking at them and said now how can we break these down so that they make more sense. We identified those features that were integral to the implementation of that goal. Now, for example, we had -- I'll just talk high and low temperature. On the low-temperature team they had specific thermal goals that they tried to meet. Now what we found was there was a whole series of features that were not integral to meeting that design goal of low temperature. For example, if we modified the surface of Yucca Mountain, regraded it, recontoured it, put a cap on it, something of this nature, which was one of the features, that was independent of how you design a low-temperature repository. And so it wasn't really integral to the design. So we identified those features that were integral to the design. And once we did that we found a lot of similarity from the 23 design alternatives that we had. So we were able to bring those down to the eight. So we ended the workshop with eight design alternatives, which was a more manageable number. Our goal was to have between five and eight, five and ten. We were still in my mind on the high side, but we were getting closer. Now let me talk for just a moment on the postworkshop activities. Toward the tail end of the workshop it became apparent to us that we really needed to have an ability to interface very closely with this process and make the necessary decisions in a very timely manner. The schedule that we've got for this activity is very aggressive. So if we in that process take a protracted period of time to make a decision, it's not compatible with our schedule. So toward the tail end of the workshop as we started seeing these issues coming to the surface we could anticipate needing to make rapid decisions. We pulled together a group that we call the License Application Design Integration Group. It's a process that we used in the preparation of the viability assessment itself. What we found is when we were writing the VA many, many issues came to the surface that we needed to make decisions on immediately. So we formed a group then and now consisting of both DOE senior representatives, senior representatives from the M and O, and senior representatives from the MTS DOE subcontractor that is in support of the DOE. That team meets on an as-needed basis and the information is brought, principally the issues that come to those committees are policy-setting issues in nature. They're significant to the development and direction of the program. For example, one of the first features that came or first issues that came to the committee was that the Enhanced Access Design Alternatives, of the three categories I mentioned -- high, low, and enhanced access -- at the end of workshop we had eight enhanced design alternatives. Two were low, three were high, and three were enhanced access. What we decided was is that the enhanced access alternatives really could be treated as a feature that could be added to any of the other design concepts. So we converted the enhanced design -- enhanced access alternatives from an alternative to a feature. So that was a committee decision that said listen, what we'll do is all of the designs will have to have provisions to allow for access to the repository. Okay? So those are types of decisions that have been made. If any of you were here or -- DR. HORNBERGER: Richard, excuse me a second. DR. FAIRHURST: Just a point of clarification. Enhanced access, is this the idea of going to a 300-year period or is it just ventilated or being able to go into the repository? MR. CRAUN: Yes, it's the latter. DR. FAIRHURST: It's the latter. Thank you. MR. CRAUN: It's to provide shielding, either self-shielded or temporary shielding plus a thermal consideration so you have both shielding and thermal issues that you have to manage in order to get access. It would not be unrestricted access. We are still anticipating somewhere like a 200-millirem field or something of that nature. Okay. So we're now down to five EDA's, and I'll show you here briefly on the next chart, on the thermal goals associated with those five enhanced design alternatives. The current five EDA's or enhanced design alternatives are being assessed now from a performance assessment cost analysis and a defense-in-depth perspective. That is under way right now, as we speak. Now this is kind of like a pie chart. I try not to have very many busy slides in the presentation, but I had to put at least one in the presentation. I don't plan on going through the details. It gives you the pertinent details associated with the five EDAs. I am more than willing to answer any questions that you have on this. They are numbered across the top -- EDA 1 through 5, and here are primarily the integral features towards the top and some of the bottom features are non-integral features. They are not germane to the thermal goals and really the reason I put this slide in here was to really have you focus on the thermal goals at the bottom, 1 through 5. What you will notice is our decision is not as simple as a hot versus cold, low versus high. There are several -- this is a range of thermal goals from 1 through 5 starting with a drift wall temperature of about 96 degrees centigrade working its way up, so that is what we have ended up with from the Enhanced Design Alternatives that we are carrying forward, so right now we have five designs that we are taking forward in the process of evaluating with those varying thermal goals. Now those five Enhanced Design Alternatives are being evaluated using both a screening criteria and an evaluation criteria. For those who may have seen a recent NWTRB briefing, a couple of weeks ago I think it was, we had three screening criteria. They were post-closure performance, environmental considerations, and defense-in-depth. The LAD, or License Application Design Integration Group that I was mentioning earlier not only made the decision that we should convert enhanced access to a feature. What we have also been looking at very carefully are the screening criteria, so we have come to the conclusion in that group that in fact those two screening criteria should be converted over to evaluation criteria, screening criteria being a criteria that if you don't meet it that Enhanced Design Alternative is off the table. It's dropped. An evaluation criteria will be simply that. We will be gathering information for that and ranking them. Some of these decisions, environmental considerations I believe, was in a meeting last week that we made that decision to go ahead and move that from a screening criterion to an evaluation criterion. Now one of the evaluation criteria that I have mentioned was a defense-in-depth analysis. We have not -- DR. STEINDLER: Could I go back to that last one? MR. CRAUN: Yes. DR. STEINDLER: You said screening criteria, post-closure performance. MR. CRAUN: Yes, sir. DR. STEINDLER: If it doesn't meet it, you won't continue it. Compared to what? Is there a base case? MR. CRAUN: Well, we have a VA base case so there is a base case, but there's a performance standard that we used for this project of 25 millirem and that is what we used. That was our criteria, our threshold. If it exceeded that in the first 10,000 years, then in fact it was a no-go. Does that answer your question? DR. STEINDLER: Yes. MR. CRAUN: I believe we were also looking at 15 millirem, I believe also. Primarily -- there have been no EDAs that I am aware of that not successfully completed that screening criteria. They have all passed it. We are looking at the defense-in-depth methodology. We, the DOE, are looking at that now. We have had meetings last week on that. We have given some presentations to the TRB and other members on our approach and methodology that we are looking at. That is not finalized yet. We know that the defense-in-depth will be very important relative to assuring safety when the quantitative analyses include significant uncertainties. We know that the defense-in-depth methodology will be a significant element or important element in our post-closure safety case. This analysis is expected to identify the principal barriers, both natural and engineered barriers, and the relative contribution of those barriers and the resilience of the overall system. Now taking a little bit of time, I have put together a couple more slides on that to give you kind of how it's done. First of all, we start off with defining the system design attributes. As you are probably aware there are four attributes in our repository safety strategy. The first attribute is effectively -- I'll use my own words -- keep the waste package dry, make the waste package last a long time, a slow dissolution rate and a reduction and concentration after it is released from the waste package, so are the four basic attributes. Of those four attributes there are 19 principal barriers that have been identified for those attributes. Those principal barriers are in the VA -- Viability Assessment. They are discussed extensively in Volume 4. In there we talk about our confidence in understanding their performance. We will look at in the defense-in-depth process the common uncertainties of those barriers and the common failure modes of those barriers and we will be doing or conducting a neutralization analysis where we take those barriers effectively out of the system and look at the effect on the performance of that overall system and it will show us the resilience of the design in our mind. DR. HORNBERGER: So I can infer then that DOE equates multiple barriers and defense-in-depth? MR. CRAUN: Yes, they are tied together. Yes, very definitely. Now, the methodology that we are looking at, or using at this point in time is very similar to that which the NRC staff published some papers on, the importance measure, and they go through a neutralization process or a removal of the barrier, similar to the same thing that we do. We are looking right now, we are focusing on how do we present this information at the latest NWTRB meeting. We basically looked at a dose rate with the barrier removed. Probably not the most effective way to communicate that, you get lost in the numbers, and people lose what the focus is. So we are looking at different ways of presenting that, different ways to maybe come up with dimensional-less numbers. I don't -- we have got a couple of ideas on the table. As of last week, we have not selected a methodology yet for that. Currently, the defense-in-depth is being used in the LADS effort where all of the enhanced design alternatives are going through that analysis, and it is one of several tools that we are looking at and evaluating the enhanced design alternatives. In order to meet our objective of the April 15th and the May 28th dates, we will be evaluating each of the EDA in accordance with the evaluation criteria that I showed you earlier, and we will not, for the report of April 15th, be looking at a weighted score, we will be looking at things individually. And the next slide, I will show you kind of a format that we expect to be using. The DOE will -- we will review the data and the raw information associated with the evaluation and make the decision from there. Now, on March 8th and 9th, I mentioned it earlier in the discussion, we will be having a workshop, it is our second workshop there. We will be looking at the ranking of each EDA in accordance with the design criteria, or the criteria. Now, this is just an example format, it is not -- it is just simply a ranking, showing a ranking, potential format, where, really, there's five EDAs, but this, a typical example, I just used four. Each EDA will be ranked to the four evaluation criteria. As I mentioned earlier from the independent team that we have brought on to look at our process, we expect to be making a design selection. And my expectation is that we will keep it at a fairly high level. It may be as simple as hot versus cold. It may not be. As I showed you already, there are five EDAs were varying thermal goals, so it may not be as simple as a hot versus cold. We will also be carrying a lot of features along with design for flexibility, to ensure that if we continue, as we go down the data acquisition on our waste package materials and other data that we are trying to gather to prepare ourselves for a license application, if we get information or data that is not supportive of that, our current understanding, we need some flexibility in order to adjust to that information. That's where are in the LADS process, the License Application Design Selection process, and with that, I will just open it up for any questions that you may have. DR. HORNBERGER: Thank you. Questions? Marty, want to start? DR. STEINDLER: I have got several. You opened your discussion with a comment that the design will continue to evolve as you go through the licensing process. MR. CRAUN: Yes. DR. STEINDLER: A couple of questions. Is the lack of a fixed design due to uncertainties in costs or uncertainties in performance, or, you know, what is the driver for leaving the issue of design open? MR. CRAUN: Well, I think the basic design concept will be -- will not be open, but whether or not we have two, or three, or four levels of defense-in-depth may vary with time. It is a process, in my mind, of margin of safety -- how much will we need? I don't believe those discussions are complete. I believe the basic concept will be selected and we will carry features with that design to provide some latitude. I guess primarily from the standpoint, as we continue to gather data, if we find information that is not supportive of a specific assertion being made now in the performance of an element, then, as that data comes to light, we can basically fall back and look at ways to adjust the design for that. So I think the basic design focus will be -- concept will be selected, so we will be going forward with a specific design. But there will be features there that I am sure will be negotiated through the licensing process relative to uncertainties associated -- from our perspective, and also uncertainties associated with the NRC's perspective on how that might perform, those features might perform. DR. STEINDLER: Have you had a chance to think about how a licensing board might view a design that is not fixed and what it is, in fact, they are going to be asked to license? MR. CRAUN: Well, I don't really want to present it as a design that is not fixed. That is -- I wouldn't be representing the design properly. To me, an alternative that we may carry forward would be like we might carry -- for example, now we have about four materials in our waste package material program, or five. We have selected two, and we will go forward with -- for example, if we go forward with the base case, the A design, we will go forward with a 516 and an alloy 22. We have in our back pocket other material information so that if we run into a problem in licensing the 516 and the allow 22, that we have some fallback information. So I don't want to present it as a design that is totally flexible. We will have a reference design, a base case design that we will take to licensing. We will also have some enhancement features that we can bring into that design, if needed. If, in fact, we don't need them, there would be no change, there would simply be no change. I don't want to represent it as a totally flexible design, that would not be proper. DR. STEINDLER: Your focus seems to be on issues like hot versus cold and issues of that general nature. Yet, the VA certainly shows fairly clearly that the near field chemistry and what goes on very close in to the EBS drives to a significant extent what the dose at the downstream well is. I don't notice much in the way of attention to that chemistry in the broadest sense in the options that you look like you are pursuing, except there's a couple of processes that impinge on it. Is that deliberate? MR. CRAUN: Well, the hot versus cold, in my mind, has to do with the uncertainty associated with the near field environment. There has been a lot of discussion that the warmer you are, the more that uncertainty that you have; the cooler you are, the less -- the more certain you are relative to what that chemistry is. So they are coupled together and they are not separable in my mind. We may have been focusing on different thermal, but the drivers behind that were the near field, the corrosion rates, the dissolution rates, all of the other related issues associated with the overall performance of the mountain, not separable in my mind. DR. HORNBERGER: But just to pursue that just a little further, I think in earlier in earlier versions of some of the design features, I believe I saw it say getters considered, and I don't see that on your current list that you showed us today. Is that deliberate that it was left off? MR. CRAUN: Well, there were 22 features that we have had on the list. I don't know that I have the exact numbers. We have -- during the LADS effort, we did look at materials that we could insert underneath the waste package. Those could be -- those are somewhat non-integral to the thermal goals. Those could be added to any feature. Some may assume that the getters have so much uncertainty as to whether or not they will be there when they are needed, that, in fact, they should fall off the list, but they are not intentionally off the list, in my mind, they simply were not an integral feature in the implementation of our thermal goals. They may be brought back in, similar to filler materials that you would put inside the waste package. But you are right, you did not see them in that -- those detailed charts. DR. FAIRHURST: One of the obvious features -- I'm sorry, the word "features" is not correct, distinguishing elements between the hot and cold is, of course, your footprint. So if you stay on a single level repository, you know, if you have the lower thermal density, obviously, it has to occupy a larger plant area. In the various options, has the question of multiple layer repository been considered? MR. CRAUN: Absolutely. DR. FAIRHURST: Okay. MR. CRAUN: That was one of the objectives. You can meet your thermal goal in more than just aerial mass loading now. DR. FAIRHURST: I agree. MR. CRAUN: Okay. Because we did look at blending, we did look at aging. We did look at ventilation, other means of -- okay DR. FAIRHURST: And I see your goal is usually set at something like 96, that is to keep the stuff from boiling, right? MR. CRAUN: That's correct. Absolutely. DR. FAIRHURST: And there's another goal lower than that to which -- below which most metallurgists would say you would get no corrosion even with carbon steel. MR. CRAUN: That's correct. DR. FAIRHURST: And that's about 80 to 90, I don't -- I mean that's conservative. MR. CRAUN: And it varies from expert to expert. DR. FAIRHURST: Pardon? MR. CRAUN: It varies from expert to expert. DR. FAIRHURST: That's right. That's right. But no lower than 80, I think. MR. CRAUN: Not that I am aware of. DR. FAIRHURST: And the driver, it appears, for the corrosion allowance material is humidity more than temperature. In other words, given the two, you could keep the temperature low, but if the humidity gets very high, then you would get some corrosion of the carbon -- of the -- MR. CRAUN: 516. DR. FAIRHURST: Yeah. MR. CRAUN: Yes. DR. FAIRHURST: Now, some of your alternative materials, is it titanium and things like that, are they to substitute for the corrosion allowance material rather than the C-22, or what? MR. CRAUN: Yes to both Yes to both. But they -- we are looking at an inside-out, an alloy 22, carbon steel on the inside. We are looking at titanium and C-22 combinations, and at one time there was a triple combination of, I believe, a -- I don't remember inner and outer, but there was a corrosion resistant material inner and outer, and then a structural member in between. DR. FAIRHURST: Okay. Now, you mentioned briefly the surface modification. MR. CRAUN: Yes. DR. FAIRHURST: Don't laugh, I think it is a good idea. MR. CRAUN: No, no, no, no, no. No, I -- they all have merit. DR. FAIRHURST: What are the main objections to it? As you say, it is something to be done totally independently of anything you are doing. Not totally, it is almost -- but are they questions of permanence, erosion? MR. CRAUN: There is a permanence issue, you are right. Will it last? There is a little bit of a cost issue. How much does it cost to prepare the surface like that? Which one of them was recontouring the whole top of the mountain, all 1300 acres -- I guess 1300 acres. 1300, yeah, 1300. DR. FAIRHURST: It depends. MR. CRAUN: Yeah, it depends. You're right, it depends. It depends. DR. FAIRHURST: I have heard the number, yeah. MR. CRAUN: And the third was kind of -- I was just going to say optics, but that is not the right thing to say, so there would be just those two. MR. RICKERTSON: Environmental impact. MR. CRAUN: Environmental impact. Thank you. Thank you. I knew there was a third and I knew it was more than optics. Thank you. Thank you. DR. FAIRHURST: Would the environmental impact of doing that be more than the environmental impact of putting a monitored retrievable storage on the surface? MR. CRAUN: Oh, you just jumped out of my area of expertise. DR. FAIRHURST: Okay. That's all right. [Laughter.] DR. FAIRHURST: I am just trying to see how -- MR. CRAUN: Monitored retrievable storage. DR. FAIRHURST: There is a notion to put that there, and I would imagine, to me, you would have to do a lot of environmental -- MR. CRAUN: I have looked at some of the LAG storage associated with how a repository is operated, but I have not really looked at the monitored retrievable storage. DR. FAIRHURST: Anybody else have any questions? Or I can go to some others. DR. WYMER: I have one here. You are using barrier neutralization to estimate barrier effectiveness. MR. CRAUN: Yes, sir. DR. WYMER: Does that mean that you have determined that the effect of one barrier on the next, with the coupling of the barriers, is not going to be significant? MR. CRAUN: Well, I think we are looking at the -- I want to say the coupling, and that is the common modes of the barriers. If they have same degradation mode, the same common failure modes, then, in fact, one would have to look at the neutralization of those together. You may want to look at them separately, but you may want to look at them together, combined, also. So that is part of the process in looking at that, is to assess what are the modes of failure, how might they fail. For example, if you had a multi-layer waste package of the same material, obviously, you would want to look at those, the failure of that together. If you had a titanium and an alloy 22, might those be separable so that you could neutralize one versus the other? And, also, maybe from a standpoint of just from an information standpoint, you may want to neutralize them both at the same time, just to look at the effect of that. I think when you do that, you get some interesting input or feedback from the analysis itself. We have had some really interesting results out of our defense-in-depth analysis. For quite a while we have had some very strong supporters of backfill and drip shield combinations that we would install in the repository toward closure. And when we went through the neutralization process we found that if you neutralized the waste package, that, in fact, you may have some effect, that the drip shield and backfill may have an effect that wasn't originally anticipated. So I think that neutralization process of both a single barrier and multiple barriers, I think it is educational. It will provide us input on the resilience of the system. DR. WYMER: All of the neutralizations you talked about are certainly appropriate. I had a little bit different spin on it, though. MR. CRAUN: Okay. DR. WYMER: I was thinking about the chemistry. As you move through one barrier into the next, you change the chemistry of the material that is being transported, and change the compositions and so on, and this could have a significant effect on the next -- effect of the next barrier. And I wondered if those kind of things were determined to not be important, or whether you are considering those. MR. CRAUN: No, we would be considering those. Absolutely. DR. WYMER: It would be interesting to see how you do that. DR. FAIRHURST: Would you like to elaborate a little on what you said about the backfill and the fact that -- how the -- I am sort of amused. If you had no engineering material in there, and there's nothing to backfill, but what -- you said if you take out the waste package, you know, the backfill seems to have -- and, in fact, you didn't anticipate -- MR. CRAUN: Well, the backfill provides an insulator. It insulates what would be the waste package. It then changes the thermal cool-off curves associated with the waste package. DR. FAIRHURST: Sure. Sure. MR. CRAUN: The waste package actually stays warmer, so the warmer it is, you have different dissolution rates. DR. FAIRHURST: Right. MR. CRAUN: That is it. DR. FAIRHURST: I see. But there was nothing -- okay. MR. CRAUN: That is -- it was that simple, but it was the initial -- the initial look at the curve, it was somewhat counter-intuitive, like, why would -- then, as you thought your way through it, it became obvious that with backfill, it cools down a little bit slower, your temperatures are higher, your dissolution rates are a little bit higher due to the warmer temperatures. DR. FAIRHURST: And the backfill material that you would use for the low temperature would be quite different from the high temperature? MR. CRAUN: They are looking -- they are looking at different types of material, for different purposes. DR. FAIRHURST: So you could it at a lower temperature, you couldn't use it in a high temperature. I mean you have got to be effected. MR. CRAUN: Most of the issues we ran into with the backfill in the -- during the workshop, and a lot of the discussions were, once you install the backfill, depending on your closure, whether you are closing the repository 10 years after your last waste package is inserted, or 300 years after it is placed, the backfill really changes your temperature of your waste package. So if your thermal goal was to maintain a waste package surface temperature of, let's say, 100 degree centigrade, then that backfill really makes that goal much more difficult to obtain. You have to do more aging. DR. FAIRHURST: You put it in early, right. MR. CRAUN: That's right. Blending those sorts of issues. DR. HORNBERGER: But the backfill, per se, is crush-tough, is that correct? MR. CRAUN: That is one of the alternatives. DR. HORNBERGER: What are some of the other alternatives? MR. CRAUN: Well, there was a fine sand material. There's -- let's see, those are two that I can think of. MR. RICKERTSON: Those are the two. MR. CRAUN: Those are the two. Thank you. That's all there is. Those are the two. DR. HORNBERGER: You mentioned that, clearly, some of the things have been identified as features that are not an integral part of the design, and so they can be considered in any. I was wondering about such things as tunnel design and tunnel liners, materials for inverts. Are you considering any of these kind of design options? Are they off the table? MR. CRAUN: Absolutely. Absolutely. We have looked a multiple layer design. We have looked at designs that would include both the principal area, the primary footprint area, about 1300 acres, I believe it is 1300 acres, and the lower repository design, depending on how we orient and our drift spacing, and whether we should use a line load or a point load in the waste packages. We have looked at tunnel diameter. We have some smaller diameter, I believe some 4.5 versus the 5.5 meter diameter. We have looked at carbon steel, steel set liner -- steel liner. We have looked at the concrete liner. We have looked at different types of inverts. Orientations, how we would support that, and I believe we even looked at using some getter material in the invert, so, yes, there was -- a whole series of those options have been looked at. DR. FAIRHURST: How about rock bolts and wire mesh? MR. CRAUN: To some extent, yeah, we're appropriate. It's a function of safety. I think if you go with a -- personnel safety. If you go with a ground control system, then you -- if you want to go with rock bolts and wire mesh, you would have to have some ground controls designs that would go beyond just rock bolts and wire mesh. For example, in the ESF, as you go down the ESF, you will see different areas of different levels of ground control, from the simplest five bolt rock bolt pattern and a little bit of wire mesh, to some steel straps, some steel sets, and steel sets with full lagging, and that's just simply due to the different ground conditions we've got. DR. HORNBERGER: How about apart from tunnel size diameter? How about tunnel shape? MR. CRAUN: Round is -- yeah, round -- DR. HORNBERGER: Round is beautiful. MR. CRAUN: Round is by far the nicest to build. TBMs come better when they're round. [Laughter.] MR. CRAUN: I'm not trying to joke there. DR. HORNBERGER: No, no, no. I think the issue is one of if rock fall is a concern, whether you could -- MR. CRAUN: Well, we did -- let me go back and say we did look at different ways. In fact, we looked at some of the alternate configurations which were two parallel drifts with some interconnecting drifts, and those interconnecting drifts -- the layout of those might have been -- might not have been TBM style construction, it might have been a road header type style construction, so in all reality there's -- we did look at some of that. DR. GARRICK: Let me first compliment you because we don't often get this much time to ask questions, and this is -- MR. CRAUN: What, was my presentation too short? [Laughter.] DR. HORNBERGER: No, no, just the opposite. DR. GARRICK: Just right. MR. CRAUN: Yes, sir. DR. HORNBERGER: One of the things that I like to do is to work from a reference position on consideration of issues, and if we take the VA as our reference, I guess what I would like you to do is to summarize what's different between now, between the VA. You talk about a change in criteria and the division of it between screening and evaluation. Of course, the whole issue of enhanced design alternative evaluations appears to be at least emphasized more, and I guess I'd like to know if that's what is different and what is the driver for that. I know the technical review board has been pushing the issue of the consideration of alternatives. Is that what this is primarily in response to? MR. CRAUN: Well, I think you asked several questions. DR. HORNBERGER: Yes. MR. CRAUN: So let me kind of -- DR. HORNBERGER: I'm really trying to know what the delta is. MR. CRAUN: That's fine. Let me try to break it into little pieces, and if I miss one, please remind me. The driver is not just the NWTRB. They have been -- they have indicated that they wanted us to look at alternatives, and they really were wanting us to look at alternatives because they were concerned with the what if. What if you're wrong? What if you've missed something? What if you can't analyze it? If you read the four TSPA peer review reports, they infer that we may have more difficulty analyzing the reference case, the high aerial mass loading, the 85 MTU per acre, than what we are currently expecting. They may or may not be right. But the NWTRB basically has been, I think, on record in saying what if they are right? What if you do have more difficulty? So they have been asking the question are you certain you can analyze that? So they have been wanting us to look at alternatives that may be simpler from an analysis standpoint, where you don't have as many coupled processes and that sort of issue. So, yes, they have been asking us to look at it. The DOE themselves has been -- it's a natural part of the process of design, so as we go through the selection of our design that we take forward into the site recommendation and license application, we took want to look for the most resilient design. So it's a natural part of the process. So if the TRB hadn't been writing us letters and talking to us, we probably would have done it, anyhow; maybe a little bit differently, but we still would have done something similar to it. Now has the criterion changed? And the answer to that is yes. And it will continue to mature as we go through this process. And you also ask how does the VA differ? Let me take you back to the eye chart. I apologize for doing that, but I will take you back to this very busy chart, and let me see if I can kind of -- if somebody could do a little bit with the lights, that would be great. Okay. The reference case -- I'll just kind of take it one line at a time. If I get to a line that I don't remember the base case, I'll tell you that. The reference case for the VA design is 85 MTU per acre. You will notice that we have gone below that, down to 50 MTU per acre, and as high as 150 MTU per acre. We really wanted to push the thermal boundaries of the reference case. We wanted to look at the sensitivity of the design to that parameter. The acreage -- well, it's important, but let me say that it's not a significant issue to me. Obviously the lower MTU per acre, the more acreage would be required. The upper level is 1300 acres, so the 1260 fits within the upper block, with a little bit of room left over. Point versus line. You notice that predominantly we have selected a line load. The VA reference case is a point load. What we are wanting to do is to, in the VA base case, as you look down an emplacement drift, you see a -- and if you were to look at a temperature profile of an emplacement drift, you'll see a fairly substantial variation in temperature as you go down that drift. we'll couple them thermally so that we will levelize that. If we blend in age, it will also have a tendency to levelize that. If we right now in the VA base case -- somewhere on here should be power. Right now. The VA base case I believe ranges from about 2 kW to about 18 kW on the power loading of waste packages, the 21 PWR waste packages, and here you see us wanting to meet specific goals on the power of the waste packages. Again, the purpose of that was to levelize down the emplacement drifts, levelize the power, to minimize that temperature delta. We did look at rod consolidation. I believe in the process of evaluating, that has now shifted over to a no. We looked at -- I'm jumping around here a little bit, I apologize -- waste package size; we looked at a 12 PWR, 21 PWR, and somebody in the audience help me, I think we looked at a 42 PWR -- yeah, 42, it's on the slide, 42 PWR waste package, and that was with rod consolidation. We were wanting to make that as hot as possible, put as much power in there as we could. And diameter, some variation, base case, 5.5. Looked at 4.5, smaller. We haven't had any indication that larger is necessarily better for the emplacement drift, so we have had indication that smaller is better from a stability standpoint. In fact, we have had a workshop on tunnel stability on that very issue. And then the drift spacing, I believe this is the VA base case, which is 56 meter spacing -- no, that's not right. VA base case is 28 meters. 28. Who said 28? Thank you. Thank you very much. It is 28 meters. This is 56 because we went from a point load to a line load, that's why that changed. So I think I have answered all four kind of questions. If I think I -- yeah. DR. GARRICK: And it would have helped if one of your cases would have been the VA base case. MR. CRAUN: Well, it's pretty close here. I mean this is pretty close. But we really did not want to constrain the license application design selection process, so there was no mandate to have a case called a base case. We basically looked at it from the standpoint of take it as a natural evolving process, these two I would select 3 and 4 as being those that are closest to the VA. Remember, the VA design was supposed to be a snapshot, supposed to just look at it to identify how it was supposed to perform, what it's supposed to cost, how you get it to licensing, and so now that we are looking at how that works relative to the -- assessment relative to criteria on performance, defense-in-depth, margin of safety, those sorts of arguments, I think it is a natural process for the VA base case to evolve to the next generation. DR. GARRICK: Yes. One of the back room criticisms of the design has often been that maybe it's more complex than it needs to be, especially in the international community, one hears this from time to time. And I noticed -- and you used the word earlier, simpler, but I notice in your criteria that simplicity is not an explicit part of the criteria. How much effort is being made to move in the direction of the design being simpler and the consideration of such things as a combined corrosion-resistant material and structural material as the same material? Just as an example, a simpler invert design, a simpler approach to water diversion, et cetera. One impression is that the design is quite complex, and the combinations and permutations are quite large, and so I think there is this continuing anxiety about the lack of stability with respect to the design, and based on your presentation today, one can't get a particularly comfortable feeling that that process is moving in the direction of stability. In fact, it seems to be more in the direction of more alternatives and more combinations and permutations. MR. CRAUN: Well, I hope we didn't leave you with the impression that we are going with more combinations, permutations, and -- from my standpoint, this is a process where we are looking at the design on how to carry it forward. Now in the criteria, which I had in the slide here, it had a screening criteria and evaluation criteria. For example, the safety licensing probability and environmental consideration, that first bullet underneath the evaluation criteria, is composed of several elements, sub-elements, that address specifically this issue of simplicity. And since my memory is not as good as it used to be, I'll just read some of it to you. We are looking at the function of each element and how simple and easy it is to define the function of that element and the analysis associated with that. The post-closure function, can it be simply -- can it be demonstrated simply, straightforwardly? So we are looking at simplicity. Are there regulatory or engineering precedents associated with that feature? Has it been in a licensing design before? Have people relied on it before? Is there a track record associated with that? So we are looking at simplicity, licensability, so in that first category there are a whole series of subcategory elements that are addressing specifically the issue of simplicity and licensability. Now -- and again I want to come back to to me this is a natural process of design, of the evolution. We have to narrow it down. This is the narrowing process. A fairly formal process. We are looking very carefully at defense-in-depth, we are looking at licensability, we are looking at cost, schedule, maintenance, et cetera, flexibility. Flexibility is also another important term, and that's not intended to broaden it, it's a reality. What if we have to receive more than 70,000 metric tons? What if we need to receive more than 105,000 metric tons? I think those are good questions to be asking now as we are focusing in on that final design that we'll carry forward. And even when we carry that design forward into a site recommendation and the license application process, I suspect that design to continue, I would hope it would continue to mature even in some cases into construction as we go into the process of building and operating the repository. At least from the commercial background that I had, our plant learned a tremendous amount when we went from zero power to 5 percent on out to 100 percent power. We learned quite a bit about how our plant does and doesn't work. So I would expect that design not to shift in a broad conceptual basis from one thermal goal to another thermal goal. I wouldn't expect to see that. But I would expect to see some subtleties in some of the features change, and I think that's healthy, and I think that's good. DR. GARRICK: One of the things that you introduced into the process was something called an independent review panel. MR. CRAUN: Yes, sir. DR. GARRICK: Can you tell us a little bit about this panel, how it works, who's on it -- MR. CRAUN: Certainly. DR. GARRICK: Not necessarily by individual, but by discipline or where they came from. Are they all internal to DOE? And also, maybe against this LADS process, where you show various steps, can you help us as to the independent review panel and how it fits into that process? MR. CRAUN: Well, relative to each step we wanted them to look -- in the beginning we had them there to look at the preworkshop activities. Now let me kind of go through again, since my memory is not as good as it used to be, a listing of who's on that. And they are really not DOE personnel. Mr. Angelo Giambusso. He's a retired Stone & Webster, many, many, many years in the licensing and engineering nuclear power. That's his background. Dr. Saul Levy. He is another engineer involved for quite a while in nuclear power. Dr. Peter Morris, decision analyst, do we have the right decision analysis approach? Dr. Joseph Payer, materials behavior. Dr. Terry Surles, risk management. Dr. Wendell Weart, performance assessment. And Dr. Chris Whipple, risk management. That was the team that we pulled together to have them look at our process. We thought that would give us a diversified background of personnel to look at it. They gave us a lot of input. They gave us some -- we presented a lot of information to them, and they gave us some really -- I think some valuable feedback. We wanted to have them view all steps of the process. Now because of their schedules they're not all going to be able to be there at the same time, but we did get them all together prior to the first January 4-15 workshop, we had them there during the workshop. I think most of them were there at least a day or so. And then they will be -- some will be there during the March 8 and 9 workshop. And then they will also probably -- we haven't decided this yet -- but I would imagine that we'll also involve them as we come toward a conclusion in the April time line. As the reports are starting to come together, we'll involve them again. DR. FAIRHURST: You have not brought anybody from other programs in other countries. MR. CRAUN: No, sir. DR. FAIRHURST: Who have been, you know, working on -- MR. CRAUN: No, sir; we did not. DR. FAIRHURST: Similar problems for a long time? MR. CRAUN: No. Wendell Weart would be the only other -- from WIPP -- DR. FAIRHURST: He comes from the South. [Laughter.] DR. GARRICK: From New Mexico. MR. CRAUN: But, no, not any other foreign countries. No. No, not any foreign countries, not other foreign countries. DR. FAIRHURST: I notice you've got after -- MR. CRAUN: Let me, if I can, interrupt you for just a second. On the tunnel stability workshop, if I recall right, we did have other participants from other -- DR. FAIRHURST: The Italian fellow -- MR. CRAUN: Yes. DR. FAIRHURST: The head of ITA. MR. CRAUN: Yes. Yes. Yes. So we have had -- but that's all. MR. NATARAJ: One from Canada, also. Canada. DR. FAIRHURST: Neil Chandler. Torbreki's a Norwegian, too. He's been here a while, like me. But I noticed that your aging and preclosure ventilation, that in all of them you have a minimum of 25 years of preclosure ventilation. Now this implies then that every package that's put in -- are they all being ventilated for the entire time? In other words, you're not going to backfill anything until the entire repository's full, until 25 or 50 years has passed? MR. CRAUN: Backfill is a closure process. You're right. So backfill -- DR. FAIRHURST: So it's a remote process too. MR. CRAUN: It would be remote if in fact we have -- if we have not embraced enhanced access fully. DR. FAIRHURST: Right. MR. CRAUN: But assuming -- with an assumption that it is not accessible then it would be remote; that's correct. And the 25 years is a combination of either aging and/or ventilation preclosure. And if you choose to ventilate the repository, preclosure ventilation, the entire repository would be ventilated. So it wouldn't be just this drift versus this drift. They would all be ventilated. Now we've looked at a variety of different ventilation rates during this process, everything from about one cubic meter a second to ten cubic meters per second. The higher the ventilation rate obviously the more -- DR. FAIRHURST: Heat. MR. CRAUN: Massive the whole system becomes, the more -- somewhat the more heat you remove. But we are looking at both -- a combination of either aging or ventilation. Now as we're going through -- as you saw those five EDAs, individually they're continuing to mature, so some of them may -- you know, some of the ventilation issues as we -- what we found when we were developing those EDA -- enhanced design alternatives -- is that because we were different than the base case for the viability assessment, we didn't have all the necessary analysis performed in order to help us fully understand where we were in a low-temperature repository. So we had to make some assumptions during the initial brainstorming sessions. So now that we're in the process of evaluating them, we're finding that some of our assumptions were really good, and some of them were close to good. So we're having to make some little adjustments to those also. So they are continuing to mature through this analysis process, but at this point in time, yes, the ventilation and/or aging combination, and that's because we're wanting to go with a line load and we're wanting to distribute that load in the emplacement drift. DR. FAIRHURST: If I can just pick up on John Garrick's question about complexity, by what date was it that the M&O contract is going to pass over to DOE, the -- MR. CRAUN: April 15. DR. FAIRHURST: April 15. That's when -- with the preferred design; right? MR. CRAUN: That'll be -- DR. FAIRHURST: At that stage. MR. CRAUN: That'll be his ranking of the designs to the criteria, and they may identify their preference. I would assume they would. DR. FAIRHURST: April 15, right? MR. CRAUN: Yes. That's the current -- DR. FAIRHURST: Same day they put the taxes in. MR. CRAUN: I beg your pardon? DR. FAIRHURST: Same day your taxes are due. MR. CRAUN: Oh. DR. FAIRHURST: But, secondly, I'm not sure how justified sometimes complexity argument is, because is it true that a significant part of your design includes a serious look at retrieving damaged packages? In other words, retrievability if necessary is an integral part of your design; right? MR. CRAUN: It is an integral part of the design; yes. DR. FAIRHURST: All right. MR. CRAUN: That's correct, sir. DR. FAIRHURST: And you have a definite plan of how you can get stuff out if necessary. MR. CRAUN: The plan -- and I'll use the VA reference design; that's kind of the most appropriate thing for me to select to use as a discussion point -- is simply a reversal of the installation process. DR. FAIRHURST: Right. MR. CRAUN: So to that extent yes, we do have a plan, and considered to be a reasonable plan. We also have anticipated periodic rockfalls and how to recover from that, and so we've looked at the tracks and the gantry systems associated with emplacement on the durability and resilience of those to rockfall and that sort of issue. So to that extent, yes, we have a retrieval portion of our design. I don't know that it's controlling the design from a complexity standpoint. DR. FAIRHURST: No, but if you put -- and many countries are moving to this -- all of your packages down the center of the tunnels rather than in the floor, sides, you know, it's a little more complicated to get to the one that is malfunctioning or whatever, and retrieve it. MR. CRAUN: Yes, most -- DR. FAIRHURST: Because if you -- MR. CRAUN: Most of the concepts that we're looking at now would just simply start at the outer edge and work their way in. DR. FAIRHURST: Right. MR. CRAUN: And it's accessible from either end, so you've got upwards of -- DR. FAIRHURST: Yes. DR. GARRICK: I just want to make sure I understand what you mean by one off analysis. I gather that what you're talking about there is primarily changing the material or changing the configuration to perform a particular function. You're not talking about neutralization. Is that correct? MR. CRAUN: That's correct. The neutralization process is something that we're considering in the evaluation of the Enhanced Design Alternatives. The one off analyses that we did on the design features and design alternatives was to simply, for example -- a good example would be the addition of a ceramic coating. We only added ceramic coating, even though to optimize its performance you would reverse the waste package material so that you'd have carbon steel on the inside, Alloy 22 on the outside, and then apply your ceramic coating. Its durability, its life expectancy would greatly improve. The analysis we did for the design feature on ceramic coating showed that it had I think a lifetime of about 600 or 700 years because of spalling underneath the ceramic coating. So even though we knew that there were some synergistic -- excuse me, there were other features that if we combined multiple features together, we would get maybe a ceramic coating that would perform better, we made the decision to have simply a one off analysis. We would only vary one parameter at a time, so we only added ceramic coating, even though in combination the addition of other features would have helped that analysis. Does that answer your question? DR. GARRICK: Yes. I think so. Go ahead. DR. STEINDLER: But that process, as I understand it at least, ignored any coupled effects and so I guess I am trying to figure out what true information you can extract out of a one-off process. MR. CRAUN: What do you mean by ignored coupled effects? DR. STEINDLER: Well -- MR. CRAUN: Thermal-hydrologic? DR. STEINDLER: Well, if you add -- I'll go back to my chemistry. If you add a ceramic surely there are effects, chemical effects, that it brings, like it or not. MR. CRAUN: Oh, I see what you are saying. DR. STEINDLER: And if you take away something or you change an alloy or reverse the two, for example, you do change the chemistry but -- MR. CRAUN: Yes, you are right. DR. STEINDLER: Am I not correct? You just simply ignored that? MR. CRAUN: You're right, and I am trying to think whether or not the analysis of the ceramic coating included a change in the chemistry, in the local near-field environment chemistry, and I am not -- yes, Larry? Do you know the answer? Larry Rickertson. He may be able to answer this question. MR. RICKERTSON: I am Larry Rickertson from DOE's M&L contractor. The one-off analyses were really initial analyses, the first cut to look at the features. Those analyses were done as if you had a base case and you added something to it or took something away from it and then you did a broader evaluation in a qualitative sense of what chemical effects might come into play in a synergistic way and for a different conceptual design. After you finished that stage of evaluation, you looked -- you developed these Enhanced Design Alternatives that are completely evaluated. MR. CRAUN: That's right. MR. RICKERTSON: All the chemistry, all of the interactions and so on would be evaluated for that design with all the features in place, so there are six or five EDAs that are being evaluated that way. DR. GARRICK: So it sounds like some one-off analyses are indeed the same as neutralization analyses. MR. RICKERTSON: Well, the one-offs that he was talking about was this initial phase. The Enhanced Design Alternatives that are being evaluated now are being evaluated fully in terms of all performance aspects, functional aspects, and for the design defense-in-depth evaluation in addition there is a neutralization that is done of the principal barriers of that system, to see how it works in that case, so there is a broad range of analyses that are now underway and that will be evaluated in this ranking. DR. STEINDLER: Did you make any decisions on the basis of the one-off results? MR. CRAUN: No, we really used the one-off analyses to help us identify those features that we should combine together and recognizing also in the one-off analysis we identified the limitations of that analysis and said now, listen, we are ignoring the synergistic effects that would be associated with changing the base material, we are ignoring the effects of chemistry, so that those discussions were there to provide information to the design teams that were trying to formulate or pull together the features necessary to pull together the Enhanced Design Alternatives. As Larry pointed out, it's the EDAs that are going through a more complete evaluation. It was the preparation for the workshop where we were looking at individual features and individual items to identify as much information as we could for the designers, and that is where the one-off analysis was conducted. EDAs are getting a complete evaluation. MR. CRAUN: Hopefully that clarified that. Thank you, Larry. DR. FAIRHURST: Go ahead, John. DR. GARRICK: Well, I was just going to say, Charles, that one of the advantages of being Chairman is that you can put the other members on the spot once in awhile and you have been doing a lot of thinking about this whole issue of design, design alternatives. Is there anything that you could add to the discussion that would put some of the questions and commentary here in context and perspective? DR. FAIRHURST: No, I have a couple of specific questions too. DR. GARRICK: All right. DR. FAIRHURST: I will answer yours but then -- no, frankly I think what DOE is doing is very laudable considering that you were, if you like, not quite put on the spot but the TRB about 18 months, two years ago said take a good look at alternatives. I think your response to that to me has been a very good one. They have assembled people and tried in a very short period of time to come up with a lot of credible scenarios or alternatives and I think that come April 15th it will be interesting to see what you have come up with. I have a couple of sort of personal biases -- that initially being an advocate of a high temperature repository, I see a great deal of merit seeing the complexities as they are introduced into the whole performance analysis process of the high temperature repository from some effects that have not been given a great deal of mention. For example, if you have very dense loading you have a very high thermal stress regime around the tunnel, and you create a lot of problems for tunnel support that you wouldn't need to have in the low one. On the other hand, it isn't all bad in a sense, for awhile at any rate, because if you have a highly stressed tunnel region than the tunnel is more stable with response to a seismic loading than if you have the current -- in the extensional field you've got a greater potential for roof fallout for example in a low temperature, but given everything around and the fact my question about international participation was that virtually everybody else in the world is thinking about a low temperature repository and they have done an awful lot of thinking about typical appropriate backfill materials, et cetera, et cetera. Of course, they are not in the unsaturated zone, but nevertheless I suspect there is a fair amount of that technology transfer that is valuable, and actually I was with Paul Harrington at a meeting in France recently where the whole question of retrievability was considered and public perception of it, and I think Paul would agree it was very valuable to see how publics in different countries are looking at ways to isolation and what questions they are asking. To me it would be important and not very costly in looking at various alternatives to put some in with the idea of yes, we may never use them -- we'll take them out without a great deal of cost. This came to another questions that had. In your ranking format example that you gave, you gave A, B, C, D. Cost and schedule is in there. Will that kind of data be available for somebody to look at -- MR. CRAUN: Absolutely. DR. FAIRHURST: -- around that time? MR. CRAUN: Absolutely. DR. FAIRHURST: It would be very interesting to see what -- particularly with costs there are certain perceptions about, in one country, about how costly it is to do something, whereas another country has been doing that kind of thing for years and they have a very different section of the cost and the technical capability to do it. So no, I am very fascinated by what is going on and I do, as I say, give you a fair amount of credit for pulling a tough thing together fairly quickly. MR. CRAUN: Well -- and I think also just from a positive standpoint, the January 4th through the 15th, when I gave a presentation to the TRB, I indicated that I was very, from a DOE perspective I was very pleased in that process because the people that were on the individual teams became sponsors for their either high or low and they were really -- and I monitored a team all the way through the process that I personally was in favor of that one winning, but anyhow -- and I didn't vote, but in seeing that team and watching that team they really were advocates for their concept and they really, the people on the high temperature really felt from many perspectives theirs were the best, and the low temperatures theirs were the best, and so that I think was a very good interaction. A lot of information came to the table and for those who were able to observe or watch that process go -- watch the teams go through that process a lot of valuable discussion, a lot of good debate took place on some of the technical issues, so that was very, very productive in my mind, whether we end up with hot versus cold or whichever thermal goal we end up with. I will eventually cast my vote at the end. DR. HORNBERGER: Ray? Oh -- go ahead, Charles. DR. FAIRHURST: I will throw one other out. You mentioned ventilated repositories and of course there's been quite a bit of talk about a naturally ventilated repository. MR. CRAUN: Yes, sir. We looked at those. DR. FAIRHURST: Yes. Presumably the answer is yes -- you have looked at the ability, the relative merits of aging and the ability of ventilated humid air to take heat out over 50 to 100 years? MR. CRAUN: Yes. Yes. DR. FAIRHURST: Because I may want some more details about that later. MR. CRAUN: Actually, there is quite a bit. We have done quite a bit of analysis in that area, so if you are interested -- DR. FAIRHURST: No, I am very interested. MR. CRAUN: -- we could get you more detail. Any of these, if you look at each of the features or each of the alternatives each of the presentations were about an hour or so in length and now we have been, since January, working diligently on these issues so we have quite a bit of information available. As Larry pointed out -- thank you again, Larry -- we have continued with that analysis so we are starting to get more and more detail, but it is still again at a broad conceptual level. We want to make sure that we don't -- I think if we find ourselves driving down to make all of the decisions in that April 15th report, I think we will have trouble and we need to hold them to a broad conceptual level and make those decisions that we need to. Those that can from a scheduler's standpoint be delayed, let them be delayed. Any other questions? DR. HORNBERGER: Ray? DR. WYMER: Yes. I want to see if I understand what I have heard, which I probably don't. First, you are looking at the effects of individual barriers by neutralization and we talked about, both Marty and I, about some of the difficulties with ignoring coupling because of those things -- all kinds of coupling and our emphasis was on chemical coupling, but then I thought I heard here a few minutes ago that then you are taking a series or number of integrated systems based on various things you want to incorporate differently from one system to the next, and you have looked at those and seen what the net effect of those integrated systems were, but between those two I still don't get a way to cleanly separate out the contributions of individual barriers to the defense-in-depth concept. Now what am I missing? MR. CRAUN: Well, let's how to handle this one. If I understood your question right, the integrated -- each EDA has a complete integrated evaluation, okay? So we would be looking at all of the couple processes. So as we are neutralizing each individual barrier, we would be identifying those associated effects of neutralizing that barrier, taking that barrier out, and looking at how that changes the performance of the system. So that integrated perspective on the individual barrier neutralization is taking place. DR. WYMER: It seems to me there is not quite a coincidence there, unless I don't understand it, and maybe my -- MR. CRAUN: Okay, did you -- DR. FAIRHURST: If you don't do a full TSPA analysis with one thing in and one thing out. MR. CRAUN: Yes, I do. DR. HORNBERGER: The defense-in-depth computation of neutralization is done for each EDA. It's not a comparison across EDAs. MR. CRAUN: No, it's not a comparison across EDAs, no. Oh, I missed that, if that was the point. No, it's not from EDA to EDA. It's within an EDA. MR. RICKERTSON: This is Larry Rickertson again from the M&O. When we talk about this neutralization analysis, what we are trying to do is it's a stylized calculation, of course, because what we do is we don't really remove the barrier, per se, the barrier is still there, but a particular function of it is assumed to not be effective. So, for example, if there is a thermal effect, that thermal effect could still be in place. If the barrier was an insulator, it would still be insulating, producing those kinds of effects. But, for example, we would assume that its permeability is much higher for one reason or another, it's fractured or it's cracked, so water could go through it more readily. So we look at it only from that change. So when we say neutralization, we don't really mean it in the sense of removal. I guess you -- I didn't know if you caught that, but it's clear that you understood that part. So barrier interaction still exists of various types. DR. WYMER: Only in a limited sense. MR. RICKERTSON: In a limited sense. DR. WYMER: And it seems to me -- and again, my emphasis is on the chemistry of the process, is if you remove a barrier, then you will change what chemically goes from one barrier to the next. With the barrier in there, you have some chemical changes that take place. If you remove that barrier, then you have removed those chemical changes and what goes into the next barrier downstream does not see the effect of the chemistry changes. MR. RICKERTSON: Let me give you an example. We have a drift invert. When we neutralize that invert, we just assume the water goes through it more rapidly and that the sorption is less effective. All other aspects of the chemistry are still there. Whatever it's doing, it still does; it's just that the retardation effects that we have a wide range on, we assume that they are minimal or zero, zero effect. So a retardation factor of one. But in other respects -- so there is an impact on the chemistry there, but other aspects, for example, the fact that degradation products are now carried forward and were carried forward more rapidly, that is fully calculated in the neutralization analysis. So we are not quite capturing -- obviously it's a simplification in approximation to what happens, but we're trying to see the effect of that barrier and the role it's playing and, of course, because it is an approximation, it's only an approximate effect, it's only an indication of the importance. And the kind of effect that you are talking about, that there may be important things that you have to consider in that, is the most important part of that analysis. Before you conduct that analysis, you look into those aspects very carefully to make sure you are not being nonphysical in what you're doing, that there is some meaningfulness to the particular analysis. But the points you are looking at are those that have concerned all the analysts who were working on this problem. It would be good at some point to possibly show you a detailed analysis so it can be clarified. DR. WYMER: That's what I asked earlier, whether or not you had actually made a determination that these effects were not significant, and you're saying now that you do on sort of offstream, you make that determination. MR. RICKERTSON: Yes. In the process that he showed you, one of the steps or the second step in that is something called assess barriers, and it had something about common mode sources of uncertainty and failure. But that is actually a complete assessment of all of those aspects of the things that you are worried about with regard to the role that barrier plays. When you want to neutralize its effect as a barrier, there are all kinds of other effects that you have to take into account. So that is, in my opinion, the most significant step that you take in that process. The actual calculation itself is relatively simple, once you have made that decision. DR. WYMER: I can tell you are qualitatively doing it, but quantitatively, I think you are not. MR. RICKERTSON: I can say that is a very serious interaction that goes on. You are exactly right. That consideration is a very serious -- we take it very seriously. We will never get it quite right, but the fact that we have looked at it and will have documented that for each of those neutralizations will be -- DR. GARRICK: So it sounds like what you are really doing is just impacting the rate of degradation of the barrier? MR. RICKERTSON: For example. DR. GARRICK: Yes, for example. MR. RICKERTSON: There are other things. For example, -- DR. GARRICK: So that really doesn't get to the question of the true impact of that barrier, because you are sustaining considerations of chemical effects, geochemical reactions, et cetera, of the barrier, even though the rate of degradation may be greater. MR. RICKERTSON: It's a case-by-case basis for each barrier. For example, one of the barriers is the barrier that keeps water from coming down and raining on the waste, so it's the overlying rock units. We assume in the neutralization of that that water can come down more readily and the flux could be equivalent to the precipitation at the surface. Well, that could just mean that it's a leaky system, the fractures communicate, but there's a whole impact of how that assumption affects the temperature, it affects the chemistry and all, and that thought process goes into evaluating just how you do a neutralization. And other barriers get treated other ways. Again, the point you are making is you just have to see the example, whether it's meaningful or not. That evaluation is the most important part. DR. FAIRHURST: The one that -- the neutralization that caused the most concern -- not concern, but most eyebrows to be raised was taken out of the waste package. MR. RICKERTSON: Yes. DR. FAIRHURST: The three orders of magnitude change in the dose, and then people were arguing, well, but that was because we were very conservative on some of the other components. If you were to -- it still gave a very dramatic indication of the significance of the waste package, even if you didn't take the numbers too seriously. But how much of a change, you know, to say how realistic is that factor of 1000, did you attempt to say let's take a more conservative view of the unsaturated zone? That is a more -- give it a bigger role to play to see how much that 1000 would change to? MR. CRAUN: Yes, that is being done, and you are right, as you establish your base case, depending on how much performance is allocated to the individual barriers, based on that base case, as you look at neutralization of the individual barriers, it will change the dominance of that element. For example, if you have a single waste package with a single corrosion-resistant, if you then have multiple corrosion-resistance, that's a different base case, so you have to start from a different basis and then look at the one-offs from that. DR. HORNBERGER: You can see that we are quite interested in important measures and defense-in-depth and everything else. MR. CRAUN: I know that. That's why Dennis and Larry -- DR. HORNBERGER: I have a question, one more question, though, related back to the design business that you did your presentation on. You have mentioned that you see changes in design features as you go. I think this is probably in accordance with Board of Radioactive Waste Management rethinking high level waste. Document design as you go philosophy was mentioned. On the other hand, you have heard Marty ask you a question, how the heck are you going to get past the licensing board without having every last detail of design nailed down? And there -- I'm overpainting it, the extremes, of course, but there is this, it seems to me, an essential tension, and one of the things that the BRWM document suggested was that DOE and NRC were going to have to be able to work this out to allow, if you will, some aspects of a design as you go philosophy. Do you anticipate this being a problem as you move toward licensing? MR. CRAUN: Actually, no. I think from the standpoint of our focus on our development for our license application, I believe we will be focusing on those features that are important to post-closure performance, which we have been focusing on, a lot of discussion here today on. Those features that are associated with some of the surface facility construction is still part of the safety case, licensing case, that are more tried-and-true engineering principles that have been demonstrated at a variety of different locations in the United States, those will probably receive less focus in our license application. So I think, one, the license application will be focused in a specific direction of post-closure performance; and as we go down the -- down through that process, I would imagine there will be negotiation taking place and discussion taking place, not only now but throughout the entire process. DR. STEINDLER: Let me just make a comment. I would have been happy if you had said yes. [Laughter.] MR. CRAUN: Can I say yes? I'll say yes. DR. STEINDLER: Well, I mean the issue is that if DOE persists in its approach, whatever the rationale and however sound it is, unless there is some change in what has been the past practice of licensing boards, they are going to hold your feet to the fire on a particular design. Now you can get the change notices and reopening of the hearings, but I would caution you that any one of those reopenings opens up the world, your world, to an enormous amount of mischief every time. If you think you've got a schedule that you want to follow, you've got to nail that down earlier. And so I think George is exactly correct, there's got to be some kind of an early agreement on what that licensing process is going to look like. It isn't going to be DOE that dictates that. I would think that the Commission will be sought out on how that is going to work, and you need to attack that issue early. MR. CRAUN: Okay. Thank you. DR. FAIRHURST: That's a good point. MR. CRAUN: Thank you. DR. FAIRHURST: It's interesting, in the WIPP situation, there's a process of recertification every five years and there's negotiation that certain things which right now you need operating experience to really improve your reliability or your confidence, that's built into the whole process, and I don't know how well that's been worked out with NRC, but -- DR. STEINDLER: Well, I mean there are tech spec changes in the reactor domain, as you well know. MR. CRAUN: That's right. DR. STEINDLER: It's not impossible and there are mechanisms that just haven't been applied, I think, to this situation. MR. CRAUN: Good feedback. Thank you. DR. HORNBERGER: Any questions? Staff? John? MR. CRAUN: I'm done? DR. HORNBERGER: Andy. MR. CRAUN: Almost. DR. CAMPBELL: We heard in December about -- the committee heard in December about the prioritization process and the selection of work as the program goes into the site recommendation and license application. How does the LADS process interact, how does it fit with this prioritization? Obviously if you go with a very different design than say in the base case or modification to the base case, that is going to have a major impact on, one, the uncertainties for different features and elements of that design and, two, then that will impact how you prioritize your work. MR. CRAUN: The LADS effort is part of the integrated schedule that we have for now to 2001, 2002, so it's part of our integrated schedule. So as the LADS effort comes to closure, and there is a design selected, if it represents a change in work scope, then that will be factored in, we will have a change control process that we go through on our schedules, and that will be factored in. If there's specific work that needs to be identified in one area or activated in certain areas, that will then come to the table, and we will process that. So it is part of our integrated schedule system, and actually those two dates I had up on the board, the April 15th and the May 28th, are part of our integrated schedule. So it's all integrated together. If we make a substantial change, or depending on how extensive the change is, might it have some effects on other schedule or dates? It may. It may. And we'll work that out as we get to that point. But at this point we are not there. DR. CAMPBELL: One other follow-on question to that is to what extent, if at all, does the program plan on some sort of pre-licensing interactions with the NRC Staff on this LADS process, particularly with respect to some of the features and stuff? MR. CRAUN: I know we are interacting quite frequently with the NRC Staff, but I don't know that we have been involved much with the NRC Staff on the LADS process. I would love to do that. If we haven't already -- has there been some interaction? MR. RICHARDSON: There were some NRC representatives at our last workshop. MR. CRAUN: That's right. Thank you, Dennis. MR. RICHARDSON: We also have -- DR. GARRICK: Could you go to the mike? MR. CRAUN: Yes. Dennis Richardson. MR. RICHARDSON: Dennis Richard, M&O. Yeah, we have reps from NRC at our workshops. We also have a number of ongoing Appendix 7 meetings with the NRC where we talk about some of the details along the LADS, but more in pre-closure, but I suspect that we will have -- we will get going on post-closure and how we are doing the defense-in-depth. We have had conversations with the NRC in terms of our DID methodology, comparing to their methodology, the type of assumptions we are using, so we can come closer in terms of recognition of what is important, and how that will be used, and also when we had the major TRB presentations, we had NRC people there and we had discussions with them, and we met offline with them also. So we do have ongoing discussions, and I think this will greatly increase in the future. MR. CRAUN: And I think also your point being that maybe we should look at enhancing those discussions with the Staff relative to the details of the LADS effort. Excellent idea. I agree with you. Good idea. DR. CAMPBELL: Well, and the follow-on to that is, of course, the Staff has their issue resolution status report, and what happens in the LADS process then feeds back into the acceptance criteria that ultimately become part of the Yucca Mountain review plan. MR. CRAUN: Absolutely. They are related. Thank you. DR. HORNBERGER: Thank you. We look forward to hearing next time from the license application site suitability investigation, evaluation and simulation team, because if we have LADS, we will surely have LASSIES. [Laughter.] DR. HORNBERGER: John? DR. GARRICK: Thank you. And, Richard, the committee again appreciates your excellent skills at time management and giving us an opportunity to get better educated. Thank you. I think what we will do now is take our break, a 15-minute break. We will be back here at about 10:31. [Recess.] DR. GARRICK: The meeting will come to order. One of the highlights of our committee meetings is to get an update from John Greeves, who is the NRC's Director, Division of Waste Management, Office of Nuclear Materials Safety and Safeguards, and also have the opportunity to quiz John a little bit on his observations and comments. We are pleased to see you here today, John, and look forward to hearing from you. MR. GREEVES: It's good to be here, and thank you for being able to accommodate my schedule in moving from this afternoon to this morning, so I appreciate that. I have got, you know, a list of topics that I think are timely and we seem to have enjoyed going over in this format in past meetings, so I will run through those, and if you have got a question on, you know, as I go through a comment, let's address it then. We have developed a kind of informal atmosphere on this part of the agenda, so just jump in and we will address the questions. Just a little update. My deputy position, as you all know, Mike Webber went up to the Chairman's Office, and Joe Holonich has been named as my deputy, so congratulations to Joe, or condolences, I'm not sure which, but Joe can't be with us today or he'd be up here with me also answering the questions. So I'll take notes on the hard ones and pass them on to him. So with that, I think I will launch into the topics that I thought were good to mention this time. A little comment. I see you just had a meeting on the design selection process, and I'm glad you had a chance to put that on your agenda. Dr. Fairhurst and some of your staff and I sat through a much more lengthy version of this at the TRB meeting which I found very useful, so I commend your efforts to get this in front of you and the whole set of slides was on CD that Dr. Fairhurst saw out there at the TRB meeting. So I -- he was making a lot of progress, but there's also a lot that needs to be done between now and the license application, and one of my fears is I don't want to see eight different designs in the license application, so between now and then we've got to narrow that thing down, and I'd be happy to talk to y'all about that. DR. GARRICK: We talked about that. MR. GREEVES: We can't have eight; in fact, I'd like to see one. We'll go from there. The topics I want to go into, the first of which is the clearance rule, and I know you are aware of the Staff efforts on this process. The Commission made it real clear to us that this was to be one of our top priorities, and asked the Staff to march off and take the lead and go out and work on the so-called clearance rule. The status of this clearance rulemaking was delivered to the Commission January 27th, SECY 99-028. I commend that to you for reading. It's a good place to catch up with what the current status is, and I think you all are on pretty much the distribution of that document. The -- what you will learn is that the preliminary technical basis report -- this is a report developed by a contractor which addresses dose factors to individuals on specific cleared items will be published either later this month or early in March. I think a lot of people will be looking for that. EPA actually had done some work also, and I think the results compare favorably. It will identify work associated with scrap steel, copper, aluminum, concrete rubble, as well as tools for reuse. These were the things we were actually working on before the Commission formally asked us to go forward on this process. So you can look forward to seeing that particular report. Another part of that process is that we need some help contractually. We are going to go out and develop an Environmental Impact Statement associated with this rulemaking, a regulatory analysis. There's going to be a whole series of public meetings, and we need some help externally on putting some of that together, so we will go out with some statements of work that we expect to be out and awarded by the summertime. Also associated with this is an issues paper trying to frame the questions for these public meetings, and that paper is being reviewed by our steering group at the present time, and we expect to publish that in the Federal Register in the March timeframe. And all this is sort of heading towards a series of public meetings this summer planned for August, where this early technical basis report out there and people had a chance to look at it, and the issues paper trying to frame some of the questions. We did a similar process on the Enhanced Participatory Rulemaking for the decommissioning rule, and it always good to, you know, have some resource documents out there. I would expect that the Committee and some of your staff with be sitting in on these various meetings that we have around the country, and we would, you know, ask for your support in that process. So that is the update on the clearance rule, if there's any questions. DR. GARRICK: What is the target date? MR. GREEVES: For? DR. GARRICK: March, for a draft rule. MR. GREEVES: Well, this is all really background headed for a rulemaking process. I think if you recall, on the decommissioning rule, and I think it was like 1994, something like that, we did a whole series of meetings, met with the public and developed background information, and all of that led towards the more formal process of producing the proposed rule and then the final rule. So we are at the front end where we are taking information, trying to contact stakeholders. So this whole series of meetings in this calendar year will help us develop the input for that rulemaking process, so it is off beyond 2000, 2001, and it normally takes a year or two anyhow to get through a rulemaking, and this one is going to be a particularly interesting rulemaking. There is going to be a lot of comment on this one. So I would sense that it would probably take a few years. If there is somebody in the rooms that knows the schedule better than I, please speak up. But this is the front end work, trying to make sure we listen to what the stakeholders have to say before we start putting pen to paper on what the actual rule is. There is a lot of interest in this. I know the utilities will be interested in it for the materials. There's a lot of reactors going into a decommissioning phase and very much need this kind of information, so I expect they will be part of the stakeholder group. And what I will do is just take a note and try and get back to you with an estimated schedule on what the rulemaking, actual rulemaking process would be. Moving on to low level waste, it seems like about once every couple of weeks I get a question of -- well, where is Barnwell now? And it is interesting, we don't have any actually licensing actions in low level waste anymore. Those actually reverted to the agreement states. But I still have a program, I still have questions coming in, but we actually don't have a licensee. And I am sure you have -- your staff has kept you up to date on a number of these issues, but the latest is the new governor in South Carolina, Jim Hodges, announced in his state address in January that they would be exploring rejoining the Southeast Compact. The state was a member of that compact up until '95. The then governor, David Beasley, withdrew from the compact and opened the facility to all states expect North Carolina, and imposed this $235 per cubic foot tax that was on top of that. So the country has enjoyed the time that everybody, just about virtually about could send their waste to Barnwell, and that is the way it has been for a number of years. However, things have a way of changing. We understand there's two bills that have been introduced within the state legislative session. One would implement a policy where the state would go back into the Southeast Compact, and another would exclude all out-of-state waste from the facility, so it would just take waste within the state, at least that is the understanding that I have. It is not clear whether either would pass, but those are the topics under discussion. For the legislation to rejoin the Southeast Compact, I understand the member would be conditional upon other member states coming up with some kind of an agreement in terms of compliance. It is like the Low Level Waste Amendments Act, it had conditions that you had to meet to stay in the process. So people at looking at that. Is there any method to come up with enforcing penalties or sanctions? And it doesn't take a lot to figure out what this is about, the question is, can North Carolina, which had the lead for developing the site, come along and do that without additional delays? So, it is, as we all know, very difficult to push these things through, so we will stay tuned as to how that plays out. On the operating front, Chem Nuclear, the operator down there, I understand has abandoned their Barnwell initiative. This was a long-term financing plan for the disposal facility. Maybe somebody had briefed you on this. Under that initiative, generators would enter into a contract with Chem Nuclear to provide disposal capacity for the next 25 years. The state was to receive about $75 million and a trust fund of $1 billion would end up at the end of 25 years. Chem Nuclear, I think was looking for something like 4 million cubic feet from the generators in terms of a package for futures. They only received a commitment for about 1.2 million, and generators were concerned about the length of time and the commitment of tying themselves up, especially with the disposal costs in the range of $300 per cubic foot. So I think we are all seeing various attempts here to try and sort out ways to make low level waste disposal viable for, you know, the decades to come, it is just a difficult process. So, apparently, that approach did not work, and I think we are all sort watching what goes on in South Carolina. I am going to move on to the General Accounting Study that was asked for unless you have got some specific questions about what I mentioned about Barnwell. Moving on, I think you are familiar with the fact that Senator Murkowski, in September, -- Senator Murkowski, who chairs the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, requested GAO to conduct a study of the national system for commercial low level waste. Senator Murkowski raised a question about recent developments that I think we have all been watching about whether the policies of the Amendments Act can be implemented in an acceptable timeframe. These included the things that I think we have talked about some in the past, the delays with the Ward Valley site, the reduction in volumes showing up at the Barnwell disposal facility, the ability of Chem Nuclear to meet the continued financial requirements assessed there, increased amount of low level waste going to the Envirocare facility, the suspension or termination of siting efforts by a number of states and compacts. I think you have heard what happened in the State of Texas and Nebraska. So I think all these things went into the thinking behind the Committee's request to GAO. Specifically, what they requested GAO to do was review and report on the status of how the country is addressing the Low Level Waste Amendments Act, review and report on the timing of state and compact efforts to establish new facilities, keeping in mind we started this business back in 1980 and the Amendments Act came along in '85, and here we are almost to the millennium. They also asked to identify potential orphan waste that may exist out there. And specifically, they were asked to identify and analyze any potential alternatives, including reliance on the private sector, possibly similar to what happens with RECRO wastes in this country, or possibly transferring disposal responsibility to the Department of Energy. GAO has been going around meeting with the generators, the disposal site operators. I understand they visited Barnwell and Washington State, and Envirocare. They are meeting with the various state stakeholders in this process, the compact officials. They have been meeting with others since October. We have had some limited discussion with GAO. Their current schedule on this, as I understand it, is a report by the end of April. In the first part of this month, February 3rd, Senator Murkowski sent another letter to GAO asking them to augment what it was that they were looking at, to look at what the costs for DOE compared to disposal in the private sector. They want to analyze those costs for DOE disposal of low level waste, and what efforts DOE may have to utilize private disposal facilities, I think is -- a number of you know that DOE does utilize the Envirocare facility, for example. The second part of the report is expected to be issued late this year or early next year. DR. GARRICK: Has NRC had any role in this activity? MR. GREEVES: To me NRC's role is public health and safety. As I said, we don't have a single licensee in this category. Most of the work that I'm involved with is consultation with the agreement States that do have this responsibility. We frequently are asked -- for example, several times we were asked to comment on the sampling plan out at Ward Valley, both by the State and by the Department of Interior. So that's a role we fulfill, as you all are familiar with. We put out a standard review plan years ago that -- DR. GARRICK: But I would think that one of the most important inputs into trying to find answers would be expertise and knowledge of the low-level waste program, and that the NRC would be one of the best sources for that. MR. GREEVES: Dwayne Wygal is the person that is in charge of this at GAO, and we've met with him several times. In fact, I talked to him earlier this week. I've invited him to come to one of our ISCORS meeting -- Interagency Steering Committee on Radiation Standards. So we're trying to maintain the dialogue with him. I'm just not sure of what NRC's role in that process is, and we should be, I think, a resource entity to answer all of his questions, and he contacts us frequently. Jim Kennedy, who's our point in this area, talks to him regularly. And I think it's difficult to picture what role would we have in terms of influencing this thing. I think we need to be transparent, tell them everything that we know, and as I said, I spoke to Mr. Wygal earlier this week, and there will be followup discussions. If you've got any ideas on what kind of input NRC could have other than making our knowledge transparent to him, the question of how you proceed on this thing is clearly a policy issue. It's a policy of the States, and DOE's involved, you know, for example, the question of cost. DOE doesn't have a licensing cost per se. They're self-regulated. So as they go through this process, what I pointed out to Mr. Wygal was that I don't know how you compare apples and oranges when you compare the cost of a commercial program with the cost of a Department of Energy program. DR. GARRICK: Yes. MR. GREEVES: These are the kinds of things we are talking to him about. DR. GARRICK: Well, I would guess that the reason that Congress is asking these questions there is a sense out there that the agreement-State process or the compact States is not working, it's not getting the job done, or else there's no job to do. Maybe the job that was to be done is not as big as was believed at the time these agreements were developed. Also, this committee has thought about this quite a bit, and as you know -- MR. GREEVES: Um-hum. DR. GARRICK: John, we wrote a letter a few years ago that was specific to what constitutes an adequate program for NRC in low-level waste. I don't know if -- you know, you say it's a policy question. Are any of the recommendations or any of the thoughts that were presented in that letter being implemented, or do you know? MR. GREEVES: Well, that letter's been a while ago. DR. GARRICK: Yes, it has been. MR. GREEVES: Marty, back in your time frame. DR. GARRICK: Right. That's -- MR. GREEVES: So the best I can do is revisit -- DR. GARRICK: Um-hum. MR. GREEVES: The letter and I don't think I could -- DR. GARRICK: Yes. Right. MR. GREEVES: It may be that we provide a copy of that to the GAO. And in fact the next time that we sit down and talk with them, I'll send word down to you and your staff, if one of you are available to sit in on our next discussion with them, I think that would be useful. DR. GARRICK: Yes. DR. STEINDLER: I'm not going to comment on the letter, because I think you can easily dig it out of the files somewhere. But I wonder whether or not your group wouldn't be one of the better ones to point a GAO study to the -- one of the issues that we covered at least in the deep, dark past here, namely, what is the impact of not having available to universities and research institutions and hospitals, et cetera, et cetera. It's not obvious that that's part of their charter, but it is obvious that it should be part of their charter. If the question is, you know, so the compact process is shut down because it isn't functioning. But there are still problems out there. They simply ought to be alerted. I would think that you folks are probably in as good a position in an oversight, overview position as any to at least alert the GAO study to that issue. DR. GARRICK: Yes. MR. GREEVES: And there's got to be data on that, because Michigan was without disposal -- DR. STEINDLER: Exactly. MR. GREEVES: Capacity for a long time. So it shows a State can go without disposal -- and North Carolina. DR. STEINDLER: Massachusetts had the same problem -- MR. GREEVES: There's data. DR. STEINDLER: National Institute has come before us here and provided presentations on the difficulties, et cetera. MR. GREEVES: And we get cards and letters from California regularly on this very topic, so although they have availability, they're not, you know, excluded. The price is what causes a problem also. You can get rid of the bulk waste at Envirocare, but I think some of the biotech communities and the hospitals have a more difficult time, and $300 a cubic foot for that kind of waste comes high for a research facility. So I'll mention this to them, and as I said, next time we get together with them, I'll check in with you and see if you've got somebody available. DR. GARRICK: Thank you. MR. GREEVES: I'll move on. We brief you regularly on the Standard Review Plan development process for decommissioning, and as you know, we have held a number of workshops. We have a separate but runs in parallel dose modelling effort going on. We are addressing how to do surveys, how to address ALARA, and the question of restricted use and alternate criteria. I have sat in on two of the workshops. We had one in December, one in January, and I believe Dr. Wymer sat in on the one in January and we got some good feedback from you. Thank you very much for the feedback. I am finding these are quite useful. We are getting good input from the various stakeholders. People are bringing things to the table that save us work. We have got data. We have got real live situations that we can factor into our guidance documents. We have another four meetings scheduled so we would appreciate any attendance that the committee and your staff could provide in terms of helping us with that process. We have a website up and operating. We are taking comments on the draft guide that is already out there. We want to post modules from the Standard Review Plan on the website. I think that will be a good tool and people can comment specifically on portions of the Standard Review Plan that they have a need to address. We have briefed on our milestones in the past. As you know, we formed these working groups late summer. We also did develop the default table for the Reg Guide 1.86 values, updated to 25 millirem. We have put together the Dose Modelling Group and we expect to have some material available in June of this year and the comment period for the draft Reg Guide 4006 closes in August and people have been commenting on that all along though, so we would be able to update it based on those comments. The schedule calls for a draft Standard Review Plan to be in final review in June of next year and to be published out as a Standard Review Plan in July of next year. Just to give you a bit of a status, as with all things you think you can do a little more than you planned for. We have also had some attrition in the Staff ranks. Dave Fauver has moved on. Dave has been here, briefed you on a number of topics and he was one of our key Staff. He's moved on so we'll have to make up for that loss. We have had some Staff reassignments, so the dose modelling component is not working out as efficiently as I would have like it go, so I will probably be talking to you some about that and maybe coming to you looking for some donations of staff time, help us with the Dose Modelling Group, so I'll talk to you about that on the side. So we are going to have to re-evaluate the dose modelling component. It's really kind of the backbone of the process and I think Dr. Wymer probably got a good visibility of how that was working at the last meeting. We will probably need to retool that a little bit and I'll try to find a way to talk to you about our plans on that front. We will be back briefing you next month on some of the details on the Standard Review Plan, but this is one that bears watching so I appreciate the input we have been getting from you and your Staff. Unless there's questions, I will move on. I mention West Valley periodically when I come and visit you. At one point in time I sort of had a thought that maybe we could engage you on this topic. It's a fast-moving train. The fact is that there was a Commission paper that went up the end of October and we have received numerous comments on this paper. There's a large number of stakeholders and public who have commented on it. There was a briefing the second week in January and I am finding that I learn things each time I touch this issue, so even in the Commission briefing things came out. I don't know whether any of you were there or your Staff, but it is a very significant case that the Commission is addressing. The stakeholder groups participated in this meeting. I think there were like four different panels that participated and as a result of the meeting the Commission asked the Staff to supplement the West Valley paper and we are just about to the point where we are working that issue, and you should see that very shortly. It would address things like precisely what is the NRC's authority at West Valley? It is this unique case where it formerly was, the licensee was NFS and the State of New York. It reverted to DOE for the demonstration act and it ultimately will go back to the State of New York, which sets up a number of questions. So the implications associated with this particular decommissioning site are broad and I just would invite you follow it. At one point in time I would have hoped that maybe we could have had more active involvement, but at this point I think the thing is moving rapidly and if you have got some comments on either of the papers I would individually like to find out what they are and visit with you, but this one is pretty much in front of the Commission. If there are no questions, then I will move on to another topic that has been in front of both of us, which is 10 CFR, Part 63. I am pleased to note that it was published in the Federal Register yesterday and there is a public comment period that we were looking for a 75-day public comment period. I think we may have to renote the date because when you do these Federal Register notices, you are not quite sure what day they are going to get published on, so you put down 75 days, so I think our expectation was that the comment period would go until May 10th and I didn't think it quite worked out that way in the Federal Register notice, but that would be corrected. The point is this sort of kicks off a process in terms of comments on this regulation. We need to go out and make sure stakeholders have good visibility on this. One step we took was to participate in the TRB meeting that Dr. Fairhurst participated in in January. That gave us a chance to kind of tell people what was in Part 63. It wasn't out yet but Tim McCartin did an excellent job of portraying what was there and also a chance for us to identify the follow-up in terms of a public outreach program. We have a plan to be out in Las Vegas and Amagorsa Valley. The dates are March 23rd and the 25th and we will hold two meetings to get some feedback and comment on Part 63 -- it is obviously out there for comment and people would have had a chance to review it -- and engage the Staff as part of that process, so I would encourage the members and your Staff to the extent you can to attend one or more of these meetings to help us kind of field the comments that are coming in from the stakeholders. I know if you are available, the members do like to get out to these important meetings. Follow-on to that -- we will be developing a review plan for Yucca Mountain. We will have an exchange with the Department of Energy on that review plan in April and we will be back briefing your committee on the issues that are raised in this open comment period, and we expect probably in the July-August timeframe we would like to be back talking to you about what were the comments and where do we see it going from here. The final package should be to the Commission late this year, so I think we can look for some additional exchanges on part 63 with the Committee. I hope that fits your schedule. Questions? DR. FAIRHURST: On 10 CFR 63? MR. GREEVES: Yes, 63. DR. FAIRHURST: The VA indicates that the dose is likely to be increasing beyond 10,000 years, and the TYMS committee, as you know, recommended one should at least look at the regulation to peak dose. You've chosen to use the 10,000 year. It would seem to be it wouldn't be surprising if the public comment was somewhat negative about that, and have you got any ideas of how to address that issue? MR. GREEVES: I think we would expect to get some comments on the 10,000-year time frame. That's one of the ones, you know, I think we want to hear some things about. We've -- the Committee, the staff -- have all been involved in these issues for a period of time, and my sense is the staff is comfortable with 10,000 years as a compliance time frame. Not only the staff, but the Commission. And in a minute I'll give you some of the information that the Chairman testified for down on the Hill. And the sense that I have is that for compliance calculations you need to have a target, okay, let's look at this, what is compliance. And, you know, there's pros to con, is it 10,000 years, is it 100 -- in fact, the Committee wrote a report on this. DR. GARRICK: Yes. It's not only the staff and the Commission, it's the ACNW recommended. MR. GREEVES: Correct. You wrote a paper on this. DR. GARRICK: Right. DR. HORNBERGER: Charles didn't recommend it. MR. GREEVES: Everybody's entitled to an opinion. [Laughter.] But the point is, ultimately the system needs a compliance time, and the staff and the Commission were comfortable with the 10,000-year figure, and we're going to get comments on this in the rulemaking process. DR. FAIRHURST: Perhaps I understand exactly why when we make a calculation at a specific time and set some -- but I'm more interested in how one deals with the notion of the fact that that is showing it's the start of a rising dose. And it's a significant increase beyond that. MR. GREEVES: Well, and I think we're going to get some comment, and we'll listen to those comments, but one way that phenomenon will be addressed is in the NEPA process. You not only do this calculation, whether it be low-level waste, decommissioning rule, high-level waste, at this time horizon, 10,000 years, but you separately have a NEPA responsibility to look at, okay, what does it look like for NEPA purposes. So that full range of the curve will exist and will be looked at. DR. FAIRHURST: Sure. MR. GREEVES: So it's going to be transparent. We've got some questions out at the Technical Review Board, well, you know, you've got this much in the rule. Will these issues be transparent? The answer is yes, between the two, between the technical review and the EIS process, the full spectrum of those results are going to have to be shown. And when I talk to some of the people that do the TSPA, what everybody seems to recognize is the uncertainties as you go beyond 10,000 years, as you go beyond 100,000 years, get very large. So I'm not sure what people really believe is going on beyond 100,000 years, you know, what's going on with mankind, what's going on with geology, glaciation, all those issues. And that's why I think some segment of the group is comfortable with a compliance period of 10,000 and look at the rest of it under an EIS-type approach. Is Mike Bell here? If I've said anything wrong, Mike, help me out. But that's what's out there on the street, and I expect comments on this. And part of the response is we will be looking at all of it. DR. GARRICK: Yes. Marty? DR. STEINDLER: Yes, a couple questions that that issue raises. First off, the implication is that the NEPA process is going to be at the time very large, therefore, will include the peak dose as a consideration in whatever conclusions one draws from the NEPA analysis. Is that what you currently envision? And if so, how does the NRC intend to deal with a peak dose that is significantly greater than what's currently in either Part 20 or any other regulation that I've seen? MR. GREEVES: That was about five questions, Marty. [Laughter.] DR. STEINDLER: Well -- DR. GARRICK: He's sneaky that way. DR. STEINDLER: I can break it down. Let me just, you know. But I'm sure you can follow it just as well as I can. Do you think that the NEPA process basically has an open-ended time schedule? MR. GREEVES: Well, I think the NEPA process will call for disclosure of what this thing looks like through time. I mean, these curves -- DR. STEINDLER: It's not disclosure that concerns me, it's the action that you take as a result of whatever conclusions you draw. This is not a visibility issue, this is what kind of, you know, decisions or actions -- MR. GREEVES: Well, I think we would probably be well to have OGC join us in this dialogue, but the regulation Part 63 is going to be set up, the staff is going to have to write an SER. Do you meet this standard at that time frame? The staff will have to write that document. And if the time frame is 10,000 years, that's what the staff will say. Now the Commission is -- you know, has to be aware of the EIS process and make a decision based on did it meet the regulation and with the rest of the information. The question I think is when the decision makers make a decision, how are they going to weigh the additional information? And, you know, the question could be turned back to any one of us. Bob Bernero, somebody we're all familiar with, used to talk to us about if it -- the answer was 20 millirem in a decommissioning case, do you think this Commission is going to turn it down if this case, whatever it is, is 26 millirem? DR. STEINDLER: That's not the issue. The issue is that 700,000 years if the dose is 3 r per year, what's the, you know, what's the Commission response at that point in time, and does the NEPA process play any role in this? And has the staff thought about this issue to be able to formulate some kind of a we hope logical response? MR. GREEVES: Well, if you're expecting a crisp answer today, you're not going to get it. DR. STEINDLER: Okay. MR. GREEVES: Good question. DR. STEINDLER: I already got a crisp answer then. MR. GREEVES: I think, you know, maybe the Committee can think about this. What would the Committee do with a 3 r answer or, you know -- DR. STEINDLER: I'm just a consultant. MR. GREEVES: Well, consultants are allowed to raise questions. That's a beauty, Marty. MR. BELL: John? Mike Bell. I think what happens in the NEPA process is you look at the, you know, proposed or the preferred alternative, geologic disposal, in the context of other alternatives, and are there any environmentally superior ones. And if someone has an alternative that would keep doses well below 3 r, then you would question whether the geologic disposal is the preferred alternative at that stage. DR. STEINDLER: I mean, Mike, not geologic disposal, but Yucca Mountain. MR. BELL: Well -- DR. STEINDLER: Some very special characteristics of that site -- MR. BELL: Whether the recommended option is the -- DR. STEINDLER: Right. MR. BELL: The correct one at that stage, but -- DR. STEINDLER: But, Mike, you know perfectly well that the NEPA -- a NEPA analysis has extreme shortcomings as being very narrowly focused. It doesn't address issues of costs or social policy or all the other things that in fact play some at the moment still reasonably important role in the use of geologic disposal. So what I guess I'm driving at is as long as the issue has been raised, so what have the staff -- what kind of activities have the staff looked at to either try and make some recommendations to the Commission or at least think about it internally, and I think John gave me the answer. If I expected a crisp answer, the answer is yes, I'm not going to get it. I just wanted to raise the issue. MR. BELL: Well, we'll look forward to seeing your comments on the proposed rule. [Laughter.] DR. STEINDLER: I'm not sure I'm going to give you comments. MR. GREEVES: Well, keep in mind, you know, that this is going to be a question that plays out, and there will be a bunch of people commenting on it, but what did the Health Physics Society say about the impacts of 5 rem? I mean, you can go back and look at that issue also. So there's going to be a whole range of views on this topic. DR. STEINDLER: Another issue there is I gather you're going to talk about defense in depth someplace in Part 63, and if so, have you found it either necessary or desirable to define what you mean by that? MR. GREEVES: How much time do you all give Marty? [Laughter.] Mike, I'm sorry. Mike, could you help me out on that one? MR. GREEVES: I'll withdraw the question if the Chair so rules. MR. BELL: This is Mike Bell again. In the proposed rule there is a requirement that the repository be the combination of natural and engineered barriers, but there is no quantitative specification on how much either of those should contribute. Rather, it's up to the Department of Energy in the application to say how he's designed the system and what the relative contribution of each component of the system is, and then the NRC will review it. DR. STEINDLER: And you then assume that the licensing board -- assuming that the normal process is followed -- the licensing board will take Part 63, read what you have, and also not require any quantitative distinctions among the various barriers. Is that your anticipation? MR. BELL: Well, I mean, they would not have a basis in the regulation to require anything like that whether -- I really can't speak for what the Board -- DR. STEINDLER: I know that. I just wondered what your anticipation was. MR. GREEVES: But, Mike, there was no intention in the regulation to require that, so I think Mike's answer was he doesn't see a basis in the regulation. DR. GARRICK: Of course, the underlying dilemma in this whole issue is the matter that the better the containment is, the worse the results are in terms of peak dose, in that as you improve the containment of the waste package, you push out in time further the occurrence of the peak dose, and uncertainty seems to be a function of time. So it grows also. So it is a dilemma that was recognized by many, and is one of the reasons why, when the ACNW wrote their letter on time of compliance, they also recommended that while there should be a time of compliance, there should also be visibility, if you wish, on what the peak doses are and when they occur. So it is going to have to be a part of the evaluation process, I would think, one way or another. One of the other -- I guess it was the National Academy report that said that one of the other justifications for doing a peak dose analysis was to give one a sense of the robustness of the site against human intrusion. So there's a whole list of issues here that, when it comes to Atomic Safety and Licensing Boards, and actual processing of this license application, we are going to be on new turf, and it is going to be interesting to see how it plays out. MR. GREEVES: Yeah, there was some discussion of this in the TRB meeting where DOE made presentations of some of these alternatives between engineering and the natural features, and we would like to get together with DOE and show them what we have done in this area, some of the work that Norm and Booty have worked on showing the variations when you remove barriers. So that is a topic that needs some additional time to address it, so -- and I know the Committee is quite interested in that, and commented on the reports that we put together. So we will be talking about this in future meetings. Let me move on. The -- just kind of a completeness. One might ask, where is the EPA standard? There is a provision in Part 63 that -- DR. GARRICK: You notice, we have stopped asking that. MR. GREEVES: Well, it is on my list. [Laughter.] MR. GREEVES: You are familiar with the history on it. As of my best information, it is not to OMB yet. The system administrator, Robert Perciasepe, in the hearing a week ago, testified that it would be forwarded to OMB soon, so I am sure we will hear more about that. At the same hearing, the Chairman testified, and, actually, the full Commission was a panel, and they were commenting on H.R. 1270 -- excuse me, this is -- the bill that is H.R. 45 is very similar to 1270, which the House passed last year. The Commission testimony, generally, was supportive of the approach in H.R. 45. It, you know, has the basic elements of an integrated system for management and disposal. The Commission agrees, with a 10,000 year timeframe, it would be sufficient for demonstrating isolation capability. The Commission agreed with a 100 millirem dose to the average member of the population, consistent with the public health and safety limit. However, the Commission believes that, to provide reasonable assurance, that the 100 millirem limit should have within the flexibility for an average member of the critical group to receive 25 millirem, basically what you find in Part 63, and that was pretty much played out in the hearing testimony. So that is sort of the wrap-up on where the regulation and the EPA standard sits for the moment. The last thing I wanted to go over was kind of some things that we are doing in the high level waste program. I know the Committee is interested in how the staff is working issues and what role the center has in these processes. We did receive some of your questions about, quote, research efforts. We are going to try and weave answers to those in these presentations. What we don't address, we will have to get back to you on. And, also, last year's questions. It seems like I answered those, but they just haven't quite gotten back to you all yet, right. So I am not quite sure how that works, but -- I don't know, something is in the mail. In any event, back to -- DR. HORNBERGER: They got lost. MR. GREEVES: Back to some changes we have made recently. As, you know, your questions in the past have asked, the program is evolving, and in order for us to try and keep up with the direction DOE is moving in, we have increased the emphasis in the engineering and design area. I know the Committee is quite concerned with that. The funding for the three key technical issues that address engineering and design now represent about 26 percent of our technical program, so we have moved our energy in that direction. We are also finding that there are things that either we or the center just -- there is not enough of us to go around, and we have come up with what we called augmented work. The High Level Waste Board came up with 19 additional tasks to help with the key technical issues, and we are trying to work our way through that list, and getting some outside experts to help us through the center. We have approved 14 of these tasks. The total funding for that is a little in excess of $600,000. Most -- five of these tasks are directed towards the waste package and repository design program. Virtually all of this work is being augmented by consultants that the center has available to it. There's more than 40 consultants and subcontractors regularly engaged in work for the center and a number of these are experts with international reputations. This was one of the things you mentioned in last year's report. We are paying attention to that comment and think that we are responsive to it. That is pretty much the issues that I put together, in fact, the staff put together for me, and I think worked out quite well for my perspectives. Separately, you have submitted your Action Plan, and we are looking at that, and I would like to sit down and talk to you about a few of the items in there. I haven't looked at it close enough to do that today. Maybe a follow-up session with one or two of you would be in order, and, obviously, we will respond also to the formal written letter. But we do have some comments on your Action Plan, I just don't think today is the time to address them. So that is the end of my prepared remarks. I would be happy to answer any other questions on those topics or anything else. DR. GARRICK: Excellent timing. Questions? Marty. DR. STEINDLER: I get the sense that the NRC is -- let me choose the words carefully, chronically unhappy with DOE's QA approach, and, presumably, it is focused to a significant extent on the quality assurance attributes of the evidentiary base used to fuel the models that are currently being exercised. Is that reasonable -- reasonably correct? MR. GREEVES: I am not sure I would have used the exact same words, but, yeah, DOE themselves -- DR. STEINDLER: Are you concerned about it? MR. GREEVES: Oh, we are concerned about it. DR. STEINDLER: It is a concern issue. MR. GREEVES: You are going to hear about it in our viability assessment comments that -- I think, Mike, you are on tomorrow morning. You are going to hear more about that tomorrow morning. MR. BELL: Tomorrow afternoon. MR. GREEVES: Okay. Tomorrow afternoon. QA is a vital organ. You know, once you get into license application, you have to have it right. Those of us sitting around the table that lived through Marble Hills and some of the other cases in reactor-land, you cannot afford to have that problem. And, so, you are going to hear about it from us. DR. STEINDLER: Okay. Well, if I am going to hear about it, let me simply wait. MR. GREEVES: And, also, DOE recognizes the problem. Lake Barrett came in on February 8th and he devoted a significant amount of his presentation to the Commission on that topic, recognizing the problem, recognizing the need to address it in a timely way. I, in conjunction with the TRB meeting, had a meeting with DOE on quality assurance, sat down with all the key players, and went through the litany of the issues. And my sense is it is headed for probably a meeting in April where they have done their diagnostic, their root cause analysis, and would be able to explain how they get to where they need to be from where they are now. And my sense is it really has to come together to fit in the site recommendation process, because the Commission is going to be commenting on the site recommendation, and the Commission comments on that, they are going to want to know that the QA program is supportive of whatever the data is saying. And, Marty, yes, a lot of it does go to the modeling approaches. And if you want, I could down and show you some of the data that we have where things were not where they need to be. It is pretty -- pretty clear. So, hopefully, you will hear more about that. And, hopefully, I have partially answered your question. DR. STEINDLER: Well, let me just make a comment for 30 seconds. It is reasonably clear that, following the QA program that NRC has asked for, and DOE has, in its wisdom, put together, does not assure you that the data that you are using for your models is any good. And somewhere along the line, the time schedule between now and the time a licensing application has got to be assembled and laid in front of the Commission, that time is now so short that it seemed to me that it would be much more worthwhile to look at the quality of the output than to focus heavily on those details of the quality assurance program that is the mandate of DOE. That does not, obviously, result in an increased chance that the data are going to be good, or good enough. That is a comment more than anything else, and I will -- you know, when you talk about it, or whoever is talking about, I think it is Mike who is going to talk about it, let me talk a little further on this thing. MR. GREEVES: Are you suggesting we focus on the output from the models and not look at the front end? DR. STEINDLER: I am suggesting that those aspects of the QA program that are both bureaucratic and paper-shuffling do not contribute one bit to the quality of the output, and, in fact, they mask quality criteria so severely that you can't tell whether or not the data are any good, just based on whether or not the QA program has been followed religiously, and that is easily demonstrated. DR. HORNBERGER: The distinction between quality and quality assurance. DR. STEINDLER: Yes. MR. GREEVES: I understand that -- that comment. MR. BELL: This is Mike Bell again. For more than a year now, we have changed the way we are looking at the DOE QA program to do what we call performance-based audits, and we essentially don't pay any attention to the audits that are just the paperwork, with all the "i's" dotted and "t's" crossed and the right things in the files. The audits that we pay attention to are the audits of the technical work and the complaints or the chronic problems that we have problems with are the fact that they can't show that they calibrated their instruments. They don't have traceability of the data they are using, where they got it from. They don't have a documented basis for the assumptions that the models are based on. We don't think that these are just paperwork issues. We think they are really fundamental to are the models any good and are the outputs reliable? You know, there is a very, very old expression in the computing business -- "Garbage in, garbage out." We have got to be enough interested in and knowledgeable of the data that goes into the models to be able to make a judgment about the quality of the output. DR. STEINDLER: It sounds encouraging. MR. BELL: That is where we are trying to focus. DR. STEINDLER: Sounds encouraging, okay. DR. GARRICK: Any other questions from the committee members? [No response.] DR. GARRICK: I think we are going to talk some time tomorrow, John. MR. GREEVES: It's on my schedule, yes. DR. GARRICK: Yes, so we have got some other things we can bring up at that time. All right, then I thank you. It was a very interesting report, and we are especially interested in the progress of 10 CFR 63. We think that is a very important piece of work that is going on. We are anxious to hear what the response is as a result of your public outreach meetings, which we had a glimpse into when we were out there, so we will be following that very closely. Thank you very much. I think we will now adjourn until 12:30. [Whereupon, at 11:35 a.m., the hearing was recessed, to reconvene at 12:30 p.m., this same day.] A F T E R N O O N S E S S I O N [12:32 p.m.] DR. GARRICK: Our meeting should come to order. We are now going to turn our attention to waste-related research activities in the NRC, which is very important to us because we have to contribute to a report to the Commission on this subject and we are, I am told, on a very short time schedule. The committee member that has had the lead in this activity is George Hornberger. I'll let him lead the discussion. DR. HORNBERGER: And I am going to just turn it over to you, Bill, to start. MR. OTT: All right. Thank you, George. I am going to start with this package that doesn't have any logo on the front and which says General Topics of Interest, because there are some things going on in the Agency -- well, in the Office of Research that I thought you might find of interest, so without spending a lot more time than that discussing it, we are reorganizing. You have probably heard that that is happening. It is going to happen right around the end of March. When that happens the current Waste Management Branch and the Radiation Protection and Health Effects Branch will merge. They will become a single branch with Cheryl Trottier as the Branch Chief. The new title of the branch will be, "Radiation Protection, Environmental Risk, and Waste Management." DR. GARRICK: There are fewer branches with longer names. [Laughter.] MR. OTT: Precisely. The new Division Director -- we will be in a new division. In addition to merging us, they are going to move us into another part of the organization and the new division will be called Risk Analysis and Application Division" and the Director will be Tom King -- Tom is over here on the right-hand side. This will be one of his first glimpses of probably our entire program. So much for the reorganization. The second thing that you may have heard rumblings about is self-assessment. Self-assessment is being actively pursued by the major Offices in the Commission. NRR has taken the lead. Research is following fairly vigorously and NMSS has begun work in self-assessment themselves. The self-assessment is led at first by an executive team, which is our Division Directors and above, so it is the three current Division Directors and the Office Director and the Deputy Office Director and their two Assistants and they are being assisted by Arthur Andersen. Arthur Andersen essentially assisted NRR in its self-assessment and there was significant -- it was received favorably by the Administration and so we have involved Arthur Andersen in ours as well. This self-assessment will establish goals and objectives of the Office by establishing statements that characterize a successful research program for the agency and the factors important to that success. This rather long statement essentially says the executive team has defined success statements for the Office. For each success statement, they are defining success factors -- what do we have to do to achieve success for the Office? So you can see that this approach is starting from the very objectives of the Office. It's a very fundamental approach. Eventually the self-assessment process is going to prioritize issues and activities for the Office. DR. HORNBERGER: How does this tie in with the reorganization, Bill? MR. OTT: It is unrelated. DR. HORNBERGER: So the reorganization, you are going to take RES and just call it by a different name? MR. OTT: No. RES is still going to be called RES. DR. HORNBERGER: Okay. MR. OTT: Okay -- but the divisions and branches within RES are being reorganized to meet management-to-staff ratios imposed by agencies external to the agency. DR. HORNBERGER: Got you. MR. OTT: Okay. DR. HORNBERGER: I am with you now. MR. OTT: John was exactly right in terms of putting them together and making them larger -- essentially to change the ratio of management to staff. A topic dear to your heart is prioritization and prioritization is being addressed at the Office level. This makes it fairly difficult when you consider how broad the programs of the Office are as well as our own programs and they all have to be put into the same bucket and compete for the same pile of resources which is given to the Office. As a part of self-assessment there was a separate team established even prior to self-assessment which was put together back in August and took output from a retreat of all the SES managers in the Office, which tried to come up with goals and objectives for the Office, and then this prioritization team was established to try and develop a structure that could use these goals to prioritize activities in the Office of Research. The prioritization team examined processes employed by six other Federal agencies. We met with FAA. We met with NIST. We met with USGS. We reviewed documentation from NIH, from DOE and from EPA. The one thing that strikes you when you look at these processes, no matter how much people try to put into them quantitatively they are substantially based on expert judgment. Professional experience and expert judgment -- it's almost impossible to eliminate that from the process. Various groups had tried different ways of quantifying prioritization processes. The only one that was really successful that was doing it from the top and trying to prioritize dissimilar activities and using criteria which weren't necessarily all quantifiable -- some are extremely judgmental -- was NIST, and that was a fortuitous circumstance because the people at NIST happen to be involved with their economic research operation where there were some people that were very familiar with prioritization processes. What they did was they applied AHP -- same process our Office tried to apply probably several times in the past, most recently about a year ago -- and got fairly severe reviews. The difference is that I think NIST did a rigorous and very convincing application of the Analytical Hierarchy Process. There are other things that have evolved -- well, NIST was the only one that had done this successfully. FAA is now looking at using the Analytical Hierarchy Process. My understanding is that several other Federal agencies are also doing it now, because everybody is experiencing the same kind of pressure to do quantification in some kind of a systematic prioritization effort. RES has tentatively decided that they will employ AHP and prioritization of research in the Office -- i.e., they are going to try and use it to come up with a 1 to end ranking of all research activities. I say it is tentative because we haven't done it yet and it's not complete. DR. GARRICK: Bill, when they say quantitative, what do they mean? MR. OTT: In terms of AHP? DR. GARRICK: Yes. MR. OTT: Well essentially they mean that in the final analysis they are going to use ratio-scaled variables. If you look at decision theory there are ways of rating and ranking things. A lot of these ways of rating and ranking things don't allow you to do an arithmetic manipulation of the results, so a lot of times when you see prioritization processes, people have done things which are not allowed mathematically because they haven't properly established the ratio scales. We are going to attempt to use AHP in the correct fashion, which allows us in the final rating stage to use ratio scales variables which will allow quantification of different types of objectives and sub-objectives and compare it and add it to give a one to end ranking -- so there will be an attempt to quantify at the lowest level and translate that into a score for each project. I am certain that later on both ACRS and ACNW will receive a detailed briefing on what the end-result of self-assessment and the 1 to end ranking process is. Right now I don't want to go into any more detail, but that is where we are right now. DR. GARRICK: It's really more of an analytical process than necessarily quantitative. To an old risk analyst, quantitative is almost synonymous with probabilistic. MR. OTT: Exactly. It's what the social sciences have done to try and quantify things which are normally not quantifiable or additive. DR. GARRICK: Yes. MR. OTT: But there is a fairly large body of knowledge out in support of "the proper use of AHP." We have tentatively decided to go -- use commercially available software called Expert Choice, which was developed by Dr. Saady at I believe the University of Pennsylvania, who is one of the originators of AHP. There's Dr. Foreman downtown, at George Washington University, I believe it is, who is the co-developer of the software package with Dr. Saadi. We were getting ready to place a consulting contract with them for support during the application process, so if the tentative decision is confirmed and we go with that, we will also be bringing in, to say ACRS or ACNW people extremely expert in the theory and practice of the rating process. DR. GARRICK: Okay. MR. OTT: So much for matters and topics of general information. I thought you might appreciate having some update on sort of some of the general things that are driving us today. We have -- I'm going to apologize for one thing. Apparently when you asked us to come down, you were looking at our operating plans and saw a whole bunch of topics and said come up and talk to us about those. One of those, dry cask storage, isn't in our division, and I don't think Sher made any -- excuse me? MS. THOMAS: Is that still under Sher's budget? MR. OTT: Sher -- it's under Sher's name in the budget, but the actual work is being done in Annie Murphy's branch upstairs, and I don't think Sher, before he got sick and left, contacted Annie Murphy, and I didn't have time. So we are not going to talk about dry cask storage today. I am going to talk to you about two programs, and the approach is going to be slightly different for the two programs. We did a fairly major debrief or briefing of you last year on the waste management program, and we are just going to give you an update. I am going to go through basically the same structure that we used then and say this is what we have done over the last year or the significant accomplishments in each of those areas. It's just going to be an update. I did not bring the one-page summaries with me. We have done a first cut at updating them, but they need to be edited and we will try and get those down to your staff within a week or so, okay, so that will give you a detailed statement, but there won't be a whole lot more information there than I present today. The second piece is for Cheryl's program in the Radiation Protection and Health Effects Branch, and what I have done there is I have separated out four programs which are -- I think will be of significant interest to you, and we are going to try and go through the contract support, the objectives, and the status of these procurements to support those activities in Cheryl's branch. I guess I will start with Cheryl's branch because I'm not certain how much you have seen of that before. This is the one that's entitled Radiation Protection and Health Effects Program. That's this one. Okay. They both look the same because it's the same slide with different words on it. The first program I am going to talk about a little bit, and I don't know if Shlomo came in or not -- I don't see him. Okay. This is a program with the University of Pittsburgh. The principal investigators are listed there. It's also jointly with the Russian Biophysics Institute of the Russian Federation. The objective of the project is to test and improve deterministic health effects models by using some of the data from rather extensive exposures to workers at some of the production facilities in the former Soviet Union over a good number of years. Essentially what we are looking at is data bases from the Mayak Production Association; production association because it was involved in reactors and the production of plutonium. Are you looking at the footnote? There are three major facilities involved; the reactors that are producing the plutonium, a chemical facility which essentially separated the plutonium out, and then a third facility which used the plutonium for various devices. There is extensive data, apparently aerosol exposures from people in the chemical facility, doing the chemical separation of plutonium from fuel elements. There is also potential major exposures from people in the production facility, the reactors. The data is -- how would I say this? There are problems with the consistency of the collection of the data with the consistency -- with the way data would be collected in this country in terms of how they actually measured doses, how they calculate doses, and so there are a lot of things that have to be resolved in the actual use of this data, and there are some questions as to whether in the final analysis it will be usable. That is going to be assessed in the course of the project. The general scope is to analyze the data bases for the worker population, examine the evidence in the data bases for deterministic health effects, acute and chronic, long term exposure to internal and external radiation, and the intent is to validate or modify the existing morbidity and mortality models such as those presented in NUREG 4214. The project manager is Shlomo Yaniv. He's not here today. I expect that at some time later you will probably get a more direct and complete briefing on the content of the project. The status for the project. There is a data access agreement that had to be negotiated with the Russian Federation, and there are two different entities in the Russian Federation that have to agree. There's the administrative control of the Mayak Production Association, and there's the Biophysics Institute, and there has been some difficulty in getting both of them to agree that there will be access, and the final agreement has been signed by the Russians and is in transport between various points in the U.S. to get University of Pittsburgh signatures and signatures here. DR. HORNBERGER: Am I correct in interpreting that they just had to buy it from two people, buy the data from both? MR. OTT: Both, yeah. Essentially the Biophysics Institute is very interested in working with the data, and the Mayak Production Facility views it as a resource. They are reluctant to give up title to the resource, so there are problems with getting agreement for the final release of all the data that's necessary. Sometimes there are parts of the data, not all of the data, but you can't do anything unless you get all of the data. DR. GARRICK: Bill, we heard this morning how difficult it is to accept information and results of field work and research work in the absence of a quality assurance program. MR. OTT: Yes. DR. GARRICK: Sounds like this is even one level worse than that. MR. OTT: There is a potential for that. DR. GARRICK: Now how does this result in being used in fact to improve the health effects models given this skepticism of the quality of the data? MR. OTT: Well, it's highly dependent on what happens. Right now we don't have a guarantee of success. If you had to look at this project and compare it to other projects and rate it by likelihood of success, I would say that there is considerable question whether this would get a high rating or fairly low rating. But it is unique in the amount of exposure. DR. GARRICK: Yes. You certainly can't ignore it. MR. OTT: Okay. So there is tremendous potential. The only question is whether we can realize the potential, and essentially we are taking a gamble at this particular time. MR. LARSON: How long is the project, Bill? And, you know, what is the dollar value of it? MR. OTT: I think it's presently planned for two years. It was budgeted this year at around 300,000. Because of constraints in the way we budget things, it's probably only going to get about 150. What the actual total dollar value is, I'm not sure. That may still be negotiable. We are still waiting on the second year proposal from the University of Pittsburgh. That hasn't come in yet. MR. LARSON: Suppose you found somehow, you know, that the data was really good and you are going to modify the NUREG. Now is that going to be a basis for changing Part 20, or do you feed that into NCRP, or -- you know, how long is it before the results of this would be of benefit to anybody, assuming that the input is any good? MR. OTT: How long? MR. LARSON: Yeah. I mean what's the process? MR. OTT: I couldn't tell you. Ask me the same question next year; I might have a better answer for you. MR. LARSON: We might write the report this year. DR. GARRICK: Yes, we will. MR. OTT: Actually, the next time you ask that question, I'll probably have Cheryl sitting here instead of me, and so she could probably answer it right away. I have been acting for Cheryl for about the last month while she has been at FEI, so I've got a reasonable familiarity with much of this stuff, but you get into deep questions like that in terms of plan and how much, I'm not going to be able to satisfy your answers. DR. GARRICK: I guess kind of in anticipation of the research report and the issue that you introduced in your earlier presentation having to do with prioritization, did this program result from any kind of systematic process, such as a prioritization program for deciding what research would result in the greatest benefit? MR. OTT: I think this research program resulted from an opportunity being presented to take advantage of a data base which we formerly didn't have access to. DR. GARRICK: Okay. So there's nothing wrong with that. We certainly want to position ourselves to be opportunistic, but I was just curious if this -- MR. OTT: I have no idea also whether this is under the umbrella of any of the IP initiatives or State Department initiatives. Certainly they would be trying to expedite projects like this which have some potential for assisting the former Soviet Union. So there are political aspects to it that are probably involved as well. I couldn't say for sure. DR. STEINDLER: Do you have anything else of this kind in the mill for the area surrounding Chernobyl? MR. OTT: Not like this; not at the moment, I don't believe. I will turn to the subject now. I understand that you're scheduled in March, get a briefing on the development of the Clearance Rule. This is a portion of that process. Essentially we've been asked to develop the technical bases to support for clearance of materials and equipment. The contract is being put out for bid this month or next month. So all projections or dates with regard to when anything is going to come in is going to be subject to the procurement process and negotiation with the contractor. There is going to be a tendency to hold very tightly to schedules because it's tied into the Clearance Rule schedule. The objective is to provide a technical basis for both individual and collective dose assessments and the respective costs of potential alternatives for the clearance of materials and equipment. That's essentially allowing their recycle or reuse without any further reduction in content of radioactive material. Sufficient quantity -- quality, defensibility, and quantity support in NRC clearance rulemaking. Soles are excluded from this contract at the present time. Is Bob here? Ah, you are there. Okay. You'll correct me if I say anything dumb, right? MR. MECK: Yes. MR. OTT: The project manager for this project is here. Shlomo wasn't here on the previous one. DR. HORNBERGER: Bill, just a quick question. John Greeves was here this morning and mentioned something about a technical basis document for clearance to be published in March. MR. OTT: There is a report that Bob is working on. Is that going to come out in March? MR. MECK: I think that it will be on the street in March. For the record, my name is Robert Meck, and I'm project manager on this report that you're referring to. It will be published as a draft NUREG-1640. It's currently in the final stages of getting down to publication. I think it'll have a February date on it and be available physically in March of this year. And in that it evaluates 79 scenarios for the 85 radionuclides that are most commonly expected to be in materials that would be potentially eligible for clearance, and the materials that are analyzed in that report are ferrous metals, copper, aluminum, and concrete. The report is limited to scenarios for individuals and does not include collective doses, and the contract that Bill is talking about now is the follow-on contract to that report. DR. HORNBERGER: Thank you. MR. OTT: So there are three major parts of the contract, essentially inventorying the kinds and amounts of scrap and equipment that can be cleared, and at the same time assessing the amounts of radioactivity associated with the potentially cleared materials, evaluating the collective doses for the various scenarios, whether we clear to this level or clear to that level, if we have to send it to disposal, if we send it for cleanup. So there are a number of different scenarios that have to be considered, and then they have to estimate the costs associated with both the occupational and public health impacts and the relevant financial considerations for the different alternative scenarios. The status as I said is we've just put the contract out for proposal. This whole rulemaking is being overseen by a steering group and a working group, and the SOW's -- this is not the only SOW involved. There's also an SOW for -- I'm not going to go into that. There are other contracts involved in this process which will be covered when you have your detailed briefing in March, I'm fairly certain. The products are going to -- there are going to be a large number of letter reports. Letter reports and NUREG reports are going to be coordinated with the publication of the GEIS for the clearance rule to make certain that everything comes out in a reasonably consistent time frame and comments can be received and incorporated in a rational and organized manner. That's all for clearance. This is an update on a contract -- DR. STEINDLER: Before you leave that, is the rationale for this whole exercise basically to back into the de minimus question? MR. OTT: Can I take the fifth? DR. STEINDLER: Yes. MR. OTT: I'll let Bob answer that question. MR. MECK: In Bill's defense, he is really new to this, and I've been in it for about six years, so I'll try to field some questions for him. The concept of clearance on the international level, the foundation of it is basically the adoption of the internationally accepted trivial dose for individuals and collective dose. And that's seen in IAEA safety series 89. And so that's the underlying principle that clearance is looking at. And so given a trivial dose then that's widely accepted and internationally, then that's the basis and the rationale for no further controls from the radiological properties -- of the radiological properties. Clearance does not speak to hazardous chemical properties or other kinds of properties. MR. LARSON: Wasn't the SRM, though, the initiating thing -- wasn't there a Commission SRM that all the staff were given the schedule? MR. MECK: That's correct. That's correct. The history of it as far as I got into it was somewhat after the de minimus idea, but it was in the below regulatory concern arena. At that time the Commission told us to, you know, wanted us to make some rules covering amongst other things license termination and what's called clearance now, and we informed the Commission that we did not have the staff resources to tackle both at once. And so after the license termination rule was completed we had a plan to go ahead with clearance, and with the completion of the license termination rule, we sent up a Commission paper -- it was 98-028 -- and subsequent to that, the Commission gave us an SRM of June 30 of last year and told us to proceed. DR. GARRICK: If it's based on the adoption of the international trivial dose, why wouldn't we just adopt that? MR. MECK: The Commission has not established the dose, and they've made it very clear to us that that's their prerogative, and we understand that. What I said was that the concepts arising out of the IAEA and also the European Community is the acceptance of that internationally agreed-upon trivial dose level. But the Commission has yet to establish that, and we've been very careful not to prejudice their choice. And so the NUREG that I was talking about earlier, the 1640, is actually normalized. And so you could fit any dose into that. You get how many micro sieverts per year. You get from this many becquerels per gram of scrap, foe example. And so those are the kinds of dose factors that you should expect to see in NUREG-1640. But it's the Commission's prerogative to establish that. DR. GARRICK: Thank you. MR. OTT: Radiological criteria for decommissioning. This is a project that's ending. It was to develop a technical basis supporting a dose model to calculate dose to the average member of the critical group. Essentially this produced D and D, the model that's used for clearance -- version 1 of D and D, to clarify that. And the contract is ending, and the next page is the one that's really of interest, because there are a number of products that were supposed to come out of this project, and they are listed here in terms of when they're going to be available. You know this 5512, volume 2, is due in March of '99. The description of parameter distributions is due in March of '99. There's a comparison of D and D and RESRAD due in March of '99. So there are three major reports, three volumes of NUREG-5512, that are due next month. D and D version 1 was published and available in August of '98. So last year in August D and D actually became available. All those documentations are becoming available now. There is a new phase going into D and D. I believe you were made aware of this previously, you commented on your last letter and said you recommended -- or you were in concert with our intention to put a Monte Carlo around D and D and make it more site-specific, make access to the parameter distributions so that you could do site-specific calculations. That is what is being done in this particular version. Again, this project has just started. We have -- well, it hasn't started yet. We have sent the appropriate contracting work out to Sandia and we are waiting for their response back, but it should be starting, you know, within weeks in terms of the actual work getting done. It will also be at Sandia. This one will produce Version 2 of D and D. It will support probabilistic calculations. There will be online access to all predefined parameter distributions. The distributions can be modified or replaced based on site-specific information, and we feel this will provide a tool for moving from the very gross screening that is capable -- that is possible with D and D, to something which is more representative of the parameters that are appropriate for a specific site. The models remain the same, it is only the parameters that are being given any more site-specific basis in this new version. Okay. The next page gives you a list of the products that are going to come out of this. We anticipate the beta testing version of D and D this fall, in September. We anticipate a public version in December of this year. We expect to finalize the software documentation in July of 2000, and a final NUREG on all aspects of the project in September of 2000. Chris is here in the back if anybody has any specific questions about any parts of this project. But, basically, this is implementation of what was discussed with the ACNW before. Is Tim here, Tim Mo? Yes. Okay. As a result of the process, the direction setting issues process, there was an evaluation of work in other offices that should come to research and work in research that should go to other offices. As a result of that, this project came to us from NMSS. They were doing an effort which is looking at RESRAD, which is what has been touted as the DOE equivalent, or the DOE superior version of D and D. It has its own particular problems and NMSS was planning to put out a contract to essentially bring RESRAD into a situation where everything -- where RESRAD could do what needed to be done for NRC licensing decisions, and it would also be more comparable to D and D, the final version, when that comes out. This is the project that is going to be modifying RESRAd. It is being placed with Argonne, which is the developer of RESRAD and the laboratory that maintains RESRAD. The objective is to modify and revise RESRAD and RESRAD-Build for eventual NRC licensee staff use -- NRC and licensee staff use, okay. I don't think there is a lot more in there. They are going to start out with a parameter analysis of RESRAD, identify the appropriate parameters in RESRAD and RESRAD-Build codes and define distributions for those parameters. They are going to use the methodology developed by Sandia for the D and D code to calculate default parameters. Then they are going to revise RESRAD and RESRAD-Build to have the capabilities to perform site-specific probabilistic dose assessments. So, from our perspective, this will be a much more licensing oriented code when this development is completed. We are currently awaiting Argonne's response to our contract proposal. DR. FAIRHURST: Can you explain that -- I'm sorry, go ahead. DR. STEINDLER: Well, I was going to go back to that D and D. You indicated that the framework in that D and D is not going to get revisited, you know, the fundamental model, but rather that the -- MR. OTT: We are not going to change the models in D and D. DR. STEINDLER: In 1997, this group heard a discussion on that, and the conclusion from that seems to have been that that model was completely untested, and as far as I know, it remains untested. So, my question is, why do you go with an untested model that produced Version 2? MR. OTT: In terms of untested, are you talked about D and D as a collection? DR. STEINDLER: Yes, the code. As a code. MR. OTT: Okay. So you are not talking about the component health effects models or the groundwater model. DR. STEINDLER: Right. Right. MR. OTT: It has been beta tested. Do you want to offer a response to this one, Chris? You have more experience with the background on D and D than I do. This is Chris Daily from the -- MS. DAILY: This is Chris Daily. It has not been tested to the same extent as some other codes. All of the components have been tested and were actually taken from standard calculational approaches. It was designed -- the pathways are all calculated with standardized approaches. So there is nothing terribly unusual or new in the way that the code itself is constructed. But as part of this testing period, we are testing it at real sites now and trying to get funding to do more extensive testing of the code. DR. FAIRHURST: Could you -- MR. OTT: You will also note that Volume 3, or Volume 4, is a detailed comparison of RESRAD and D and D. MS. DAILY: It is Volume 4. MR. OTT: And a very extensive comparison of the one model to the other model. So there is a lot of that going on as well. DR. STEINDLER: That is not the focus, at least that wasn't the focus at the time. You are talking about D and D versus PRA, or PRA applied to D and D, and the focus at the time was, where is the test to reality, and comparing two models doesn't do that. And that was my reference, but, you know. MR. OTT: Yeah. I don't want to go too far out on a limb, but there is some question as to how close to reality you are trying to get with D and D. It is, after all, a screening model. It is supposed to be something that allows you to dismiss the trivial. And from that point of view, you know, a departure from reality, as long as that departure is predictable in its direction is, I guess, warranted -- or desired. DR. FAIRHURST: Do we now have sort of a situation where RESRAD and D and D are sort of competing for prime time, or what is it? MR. OTT: This is -- it is actually an apropos question, because if you look at it, you wonder what we have when we are done with both of these codes. RESRAD was developed by DOE for a different purpose. DOE has its own regulatory structure for evaluating the performance of its laboratories, it is not necessarily the same as what we use for -- in our decommissioning rule. The kinds of things that we calculate, the basis for the calculation, evaluations are not necessarily the same. So, RESRAD is not designed to do NRC's job. It would have to be -- it has to be modified, which is what is being done here, to make the kind of calculations to make it useful for a DOE licensee. In terms of D and D, it is designed specifically around NRC's regulation. Okay. So we have got a code here that is designed to do the job. It was designed as a very -- as a fairly coarse screening tool. There is a desire that it be made more useful by making it site-specific, i.e., can we reduce some of the conservatism by going from parameters which are intended to be conservative nationally to parameters that are conservative on a site-specific or on a regional basis? So, there were different purposes in developing these two. If you look at the way they are going, in the end you may have two products that are very, very similar. There is a question over -- on RESRAD, it is a DOE code, although we make some modifications to it and produce it, we still don't have the right -- we would still not be responsible for maintaining it. We still don't have actual control over further development or modification to the code. And there has been some desire, that if we are going to have a code to support our licensing office, we ought to have at least control of its development and modification, the quality. DR. FAIRHURST: So, what are you going to do? MR. OTT: Well, right now we are pursuing these two tracks to at least have a comparison of these two codes at the end of that period, and at the end of that period, we are going to make a decision whether we stay with D and D or whether we go to RESRAD, or whether we do something else. MR. LARSON: Are there criteria, Bill, for acceptance or rejection when you finish going down this parallel path and these -- MR. OTT: No. It will -- MR. LARSON: I know it is the subject of these workshops that have been going on. But there is no criteria for acceptance as to, well, this is the one the industry should use or not? MR. OTT: Well, I would expect that both of these codes are going to be able to do the same thing at the end of this period. MS. DEERING: So how can you choose one over the other? Or why would you? MR. OTT: I am not going to do that. I would -- MS. DEERING: They are the same. MR. OTT: There is going to be a financial decision that has to be made. Do we try and maintain one code, or do we rely on another code that is going to be maintained by DOE? And I -- DR. HORNBERGER: I don't understand why the code would have to be maintained by DOE. I mean Argonne surely isn't just going to give you an executable. They will give you source code if you want it. MR. OTT: They haven't so far. DR. HORNBERGER: You are going to pay them to do this job, and you are not going to get the source code? MR. OTT: I would hope that we will get the source code. DR. HORNBERGER: That's amazing. MR. OTT: But that is something that is under negotiation. It is something that hasn't been resolved yet. There are different parts of DOE which are -- how do I put this? The degree of cooperation you get from different people varies from one point -- one part of the country to the other, and it also happens with regard to laboratories. I mean -- DR. HORNBERGER: But we know there are no difficult people ever associated with Argonne. DR. GARRICK: I was going to say that, but -- [Laughter.] MR. OTT: Nor with Advisory Committees. Again, the RESRAD contract came to us from NMSS as part of this redistribution. DR. HORNBERGER: I know. MR. OTT: The program we were following was to revise and correct D and D. NMSS, because there are so many people out there using RESRAD, wanted a version of RESRAD which essentially does the kind of calculations that our licensing staff need. So that is why NMSS wanted to do a revision to RESRAD. Let me look at -- put up the slide on the products. They are going through a parameter analysis. They are going to have a publication. There is a long list of deliverables in this contract. I just pulled three that I think are supposed to be NUREG CRs out. The revised RESRAD-Build and RESRAD software will be available in August of 2000, and the final NUREG on the project will be available in October of 2000. Financially, this project is actually running -- is slightly more costly than the D and D project. DR. GARRICK: Bill, all these projects that you have described seem to be addressing either methods, that is to say, computer codes or information or databases. MR. OTT: Yeah. DR. GARRICK: Does that mean we don't have any more questions about biological uptake phenomena, health effects interaction? MR. OTT: No, it doesn't mean that at all. DR. GARRICK: Isn't that where there is the greatest need for research in this area? And is the NRC not interested in that, or are there other programs that they are engaged in where that is being addressed? Because some of those -- MR. OTT: I hate to say I am glad you asked that question, but I am glad you asked that question. As part of self-assessment, the large thing that is being undertaken by the office, there are groups which are identifying issues which fall under the category of areas where there are uncertainties that would be appropriate for the office to continue to do research. One of the areas that I know has been identified is this issue of, say, soil plant uptake factors. There is a separate group that is addressing materials issues. I don't know all of them, I am not on the group. All I know is that we specifically contacted somebody on the group and said, let's make sure at least that one gets considered. But there are probably others on the list. I can't tell you right now what the totality of the list is, nor can I tell you right now how the office's prioritization scheme is going to rank those issues. I wish I could, but I can't. But, yes, we are aware that there is a problem there. We would like to do some work in the area. We have brought it to the attention of the issues identification group that is working in the materials area. Where that eventually winds up being prioritized is something I can't -- it is premature to discuss it right now. DR. GARRICK: Is possibly one of the problems that in the reactor side of the business, they don't really emphasize any longer the risk of health effects, that they use surrogates of such risks, such as the frequency of large early releases and other source term descriptors and, of course, core damage frequency, et cetera? Is that maybe a reason why the agency is not really pushing better health effects models, which haven't basically been changed in forever? And I suspect a lot of the uncertainty in the analyses, in the dose calculations are rooted in those kinds of fundamental issues. MR. OTT: I don't think that that is the problem. I don't think there is a problem from the reactor side. I think what you are seeing is inertia from, say, the early days, people worked on it, and they thought at one time, say, in the early '80s, that they had what they needed, and only now are we coming back and revisiting and looking at the data and saying, well, I think -- we think that we can do better now. And so I think you are looking at the initiation of a new phase in concern and consideration, at least, for this kind of issue. I don't know if there is anybody out there that would like to say more. I probably can't because I am too new at this particular aspect of the job. I do know that we are specifically trying to get into those kinds of things right now. Hopefully, that isn't the view -- we aren't being hampered by a reactor bias in that direction, and, hopefully, if there is a reactor bias in that area, it won't affect the actual prioritization process. Okay. Let's go on to the other package. That was my filling in for Cheryl task for the radiation effects and radiation -- DR. WYMER: Let me ask one question before we do. I want to return to this RESRAD versus D and D for a minute. I attended a meeting in January where industry representatives were present, and the question of what do we use, RESRAD or D and D, came up. And the industry people were saying, basically, we are familiar with RESRAD, we have got people trained in its use, we understand it, we want to use it. And the answer that I think came back, at least from -- on the spot, was, without going back and consulting with anybody, was, sure, go ahead and use it and it will be okay. Now, if you want to use that, okay. And that is not the same as saying we are going to make a decision someplace down the line. Which one are you going to use? So that results in a question, to my mind, first, is that right? And, second, are there any criteria, or any guidelines that will be prepared that will tell you which of those two you would use? MR. OTT: I think these are questions that are probably better asked a little down the line. I don't think someone is going to -- if we evaluate, if we do development work on RESRAD and D and D and come out with two codes that essentially make the same dose predictions within, you know, a few percentage points, or, you know, a factor of 20 percent or something like that, I don't think anybody is going to say either one of them is better or worse than the other one. If there is a consistent over-prediction by one in a situation where we know the result, if there is a demonstrable advantage to one, then I can see somebody making that kind of conclusion. I think the conclusion you are going to wind up having is going to be based on where the Commission feels that it is more efficient for it to place its resources in terms of maintaining support for the regulatory structure. If they feel that it is better for them to maintain D and D, make certain that if new platforms come out, the code is modified so it runs on those platforms, and that kind of thing, as opposed to depending on RESRAD, or depending on the goodwill of DOE and the modification of RESRAD to do things like that. I think it is a question -- it is something that going to be -- a question that is going to be answered down the line, not right now. And I don't -- I can't say right now what all the criteria will be employed. MR. LARSON: I think one thing we will be interested in, Dr. Wymer, is maybe next month when we hear the SRP presentation, whether there is an intention in there for the staff to say that, you know, for reviewing, decommissioning, you should use one code or the other. DR. WYMER: Of course, that is not what we heard in January. MR. LARSON: No, no, I know. But I mean we are supposed to have a presentation next month on the SRP, so maybe we will get some sense and proceed. MR. OTT: Do you want to make a contribution, Norm? MR. EISENBERG: Yeah. This is Norman Eisenberg from NMSS. One thing that has been a constant in the regulatory environment is that the licensees can always use whatever tools they want to use to prove their point, and the staff will evaluate it. However, we always say, if you use a way that is not our standard way, this is what we say in all the Reg. Guides, it will take us longer. DR. WYMER: I see. MR. EISENBERG: So, I think it is not possible, certainly, it is not traditional for the staff to come out and say you have to use this particular code. Now, in some cases, we can greatly accelerate things by agreeing either unilaterally or with industry participation on a particular approach. Some of the thermal-hydraulic codes, that is the approach that was taken. So that is the kind of thing we are looking forward to doing. But I don't think we will ever say you have to use one or the other. A licensee is always free to choose whatever method of analysis they want to to demonstrate compliance with the regulation. DR. WYMER: Okay. Well, that's what I thought I heard at the meeting. MR. OTT: I mean the decision that has to be made is, you know, essentially what we will maintain and do for staff use. We are now into the other branch. First, this stuff is just -- you have seen all this before and it merely speaks to how we organize the program. And I have divided all this stuff up into the same piles that we divided it up into before, engineered barriers, source term, transport, infiltration and flow, and performance assessment. And I will just throw up a little diagram for each one of them and show you which part of the pile we are in. This one says we are in Engineered Barriers. In Engineered Barriers we have a very small program. One part of it is essentially ending. That is the work that was out at Beltsville on covers. ers. We ran this program for a number of years on demonstrations of covers. The program has been relatively successful. There is now a demonstration cover at West Valley, full-scale, full-scaled cover. When you look at a picture of West Valley you see this green line down the area that they've got all this waste disposed of, and that is the single trench that's got the junipers and the engineered cover on it. We maintained it for a little while with the Agricultural Research Service out at Beltsville. We have now stopped funding even that amount so there will be no more data collected after this year. This is the last year of data collection. It's too bad. It would have been nice to have long-term data on the covers, but we did demonstrate the relative performance of them and the feasibility of the techniques involved. DR. STEINDLER: How much money did you save by closing it up in April rather than letting it go for another year, say? MR. OTT: We have been maintaining it for about $20,000 a year. It has been a low maintenance activity but it has been a high visibility activity from the point of view of the Licensing Office. They are no longer doing low level waste. They are no longer supporting any low level waste research in terms of supporting our program -- low level waste research -- so the project always draws a lot of attention and a lot of criticism. Because of that reason it's essentially being terminated. We also lost one of the trenches, one of the more interesting trenches, which was the capillary break cover. When we went to a low maintenance phase with the Agricultural Research Service, they went from six trenches down to four or three -- I forget which the number is -- but one of the trenches that was taken out was the capillary break cover, which would have been one of the better ones to maintain. Enough said. The first one up there we also tended to draw fire, on concrete, from the Licensing Office, because we are no longer doing low level waste research directly, but concrete is going to be used in a lot of places. It could be used in a remediation application. It is going to be used in Yucca Mountain. Long-term performance of concrete is not well documented. We have got to develop a model that was developed a NIST, primarily theoretical, but we didn't have any data to support it, so we have gone into a phase of supporting that model by collecting field data. We have gone out and they have been collecting samples from dams out in Colorado and from other structures that have been in the environment for extended periods of time. I think there's some intent of actually getting some archeological concrete samples to get datapoint to calibrate the model. That is what is being done at NIST. They are also adding some models to the NIST -- to the Forsythe computer code that will deal with hardened concrete. This is a fairly low cost project. It runs at about $100,000 a year and it is also being supported by one of the Staff members working 20 percent of his time up at NIST. That's the status of it. Basically we went out this year and made a couple of field trips Is another one planned soon? MR. MECK: Yes. MR. OTT: There is another field trip coming up when they are going to go out and collect environmental samples of concrete for the validation program. That is the sum total of the work we have got going on in Engineered Structures. Next we are going to move on to source term, where we have a somewhat larger amount of activity. One of the activities that we have been working on, and it comes up first because we have got three different components in this program. There is a component being conducted down in San Antonio at the Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analysis for NMSS. There is a component being conducted for us at PNL which will be on the next page, and there is -- you know, this work, which is Linda Veblen's work at Johns Hopkins University -- and they have gone out and collected slags from a number of different decommissioning sites. They have taken them back to characterize them mineralogically. The common phases found in all these slags were the ones listed here -- glass, Perovskite, Zirconolite, Hibonite and Pyrochlor. We have collected archeological slags. Linda made a trip over to Europe last year some time. She went to the Czech Republic, she went to UK. They collected slags from very old smelting operations in both those countries and they have gotten additional slags from both Turkey and from Malaysia. We hope to use those to essentially create a timeline for degradation of these slag phases -- which is the last bullet. We hope to use the alteration studies from both the ST&B and archeological slags to provide leach rates as a function of time. A side benefit is that many of the phases that are being seen in the slags are phases that you would also see in glass, synrock or ceramic wasteforms being considered for parts of the high level waste process, so there is a side benefit here, even though we are no longer directly doing high level waste work. There is a side benefit to -- MR. LARSON: How long have the studies been going on for, though, Bill, and by now you must have some results. Have they been factored into anything? MR. OTT: They have been going on for about a year and a half. MR. LARSON: That's all? On some of these? MR. OTT: Yes -- I think two years. About two years, I guess, and the work on the domestic slags is nearing completion. There is a draft report that Linda told me today she expects to have in fairly good shape by the end of his week. The archeological slags were just collected last fall so we are still in the phase of identifying and characterizing the slagss, the archeological slags. We expect to complete the project by this September, at least this particular phase of the project. There is another project that is related to this that's looking at solubilities and degradation rates for the slags and doing the conventional kinds of leaching studies. This is being connected at PNL. And the basic status of this one is that we've collected and made laboratory measurements on samples from five sites. The analytical work is proceeding, and we anticipate looking at two more sites for this particular project. One of those has actually been identified, but the final arrangements haven't been made, and until that happens, they don't want to make it -- they don't actually say what the site is going to be. Oh, wait a minute. Forgot the rest of that page. There are some projects we've talked to you from time to time back when it was decided to terminate the low-level-waste research program a pot of money was found to forward-fund a lot of that work. Much of that is coming to final reports now, the actual period of performance for some of those contracts has actually ended, and we had to give them no-cost extensions to let them finish up final reports. Some of those that are listed here, there are some reports that came out this year or are going to come out. There's a NUREG on low-level radioactive waste classification and assessment of waste streams, neutron-activated metals, that's supposed to come out in June. That was from the activated metals project, essentially looking at radionuclides that weren't listed in the Part 61 tables in terms of perhaps making potential contributions to the dose that weren't previously anticipated. The lycimeter studies that were run at three different sites -- Oak Ridge, Argonne, and INEL for a number of years -- that was terminated. All the lycimeters have been dug up and have gone away. But the final reports and publications are coming out. NUREG/CR-6569 was published. There was a peer-reviewed journal article. One of the significant results was that they were showing upward migration of both strontium-90 and cesium, and they were showing the presence of colloidal forms of both of those in the lycimeters. So those were results that they actually hadn't anticipated, neither the upward migration nor the presence of the colloidal forms. Now we're moving on to the transport area, and in terms of transport, what I'm talking about is processes other than flow, infiltration flow processes, essentially the chemical processes that affect the transport of radionuclides. We have two ongoing activities here. I'll mention one activity that isn't listed here, because it ended last year, which was the international project at Alligator Rivers. Our final report on that project is going to come out within the next month to 2 months, and currently negotiating with publications on things like whether they're going to have two columns or one column and that kind of stuff. So that report will be out and will be a summation of five years' worth of work on that particular international project. Should be a fairly major NUREG. The follow-on to that was the demonstration project at Naturita, Colorado, which was done as a result of a meeting that we had out in Menlo Park challenging a bunch of people as to whether they were getting anywhere on doing mechanistic modeling absorption, because we've been funding work on it for a number of years, and a number of people at the meeting said if we can't soon make a demonstration that this particular approach is going to be feasible in a PA context, we probably shouldn't fund much more work in the area. And the USGS people at that meeting said we think it's possible based on the Alligator Rivers work on uranium to do that at a uranium site. So we initiated this demonstration project. We deliberately had a site-selection phase to look for sites where there were varying chemical conditions such that we thought the KD would not do well. And the question is whether we can do better with mechanistic modeling. If it turns out as a result of this demonstration project that we can't do anything any better either in terms of uncertainty or in terms of actual prediction of migration, then it'll be a fairly strong blow to the group that wants to do mechanistic modeling. But USGS feels that they can effectively do mechanistic modeling absorption, and they can do it in the PA context. Two of our staff, Ralph Cady and Linda Veblen, will be working on them when they get to the modeling phase to actually apply these concepts within an NRC-type PA modeling context. DR. STEINDLER: I thought the reason you dropped out of the Alligator River was because you didn't think you were getting very far. MR. OTT: No, no, no. We didn't drop out of it. We completed it. Alligator Rivers project is done. DR. STEINDLER: It's done? MR. OTT: It's done. We didn't drop out of that. DR. STEINDLER: That was an international project. MR. OTT: International project; yes. It was -- DR. STEINDLER: I thought the rest of the world was still going at it. MR. OTT: Not at Alligator Rivers, they're not. The participants met last -- a year ago February in Korea, and one of the things that was considered was whether there was follow-on work to do at Alligator Rivers. There was consensus that there was follow-on work to be done in the area, general area absorption modeling, but it would not be profitable at Alligator Rivers at this time. If they ever mine Alligator Rivers, it would be an opportunity to go in while they're doing it. It would be a pit mine. They could extract a tremendous amount of data over a short length of time. If they do that, I suspect that ANSTO, the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organization, will probably go in and institute an investigation program. But the way things go in Australia, when the Government gives authorization to mine, they mine very quickly, and they essentially mine over a 12 to 18-month period, and then start reclaiming. They pile all the ore someplace and then process the ore over a period of years. But because the ability to mine changes with the party in power in the Parliament, when you get permission to mine, you go out and you mine right away. There wouldn't be time for the Australians to organize an international project in such an instance, because it usually takes a year to a year and a half just to get the international approvals to start something like that. Anyway, there is that aspect of it that would be very interesting and profitable, but if it happens, it'll probably be a data-collection effort by ANSTO with perhaps a follow-on analytical effort. So anyway, after the site-selection phrase we've picked a site at Naturita, Colorado. We've begun characterization. They've collected soil samples. They've installed monitoring wells, and they've begun laboratory measurements on the collected samples. The other component of this program is a much more theoretical approach that's being taken at Sandia National Laboratory where they're looking at the process from the point of view of atomistic modeling using quantum mechanical equations and quantum mechanical modeling techniques to try and look very fundamentally at this. They're also doing laboratory work on cesium, strontium, and barium. But that's soil-forming minerals. DR. HORNBERGER: But that's certainly not what you're talking about putting into a PA model. MR. OTT: Not at that level. No. What you expect to get is the basis for what goes into the PA model. In the final analysis what you're probably going to wind up for calculational simplicity is something that changes KD from a constant into a variable that is calculated. And the question is can we get a more fundamental understanding of how that should be calculated. And actually as a result -- and the top element on this, which I haven't mentioned yet, we have a program review at Sandia to which we invited your staff in December, and Andy didn't come to the meeting. Andy Campbell attended for your staff. We made it a public meeting. We invited EPRI, we invited NEI, we invited DOE, EPA. We had a fairly good turnout for the fact that we didn't give the people a lot of lead time. We even had somebody come from the German Republic, from the GRS. We had EPRI attend. Carol Hornebook, who appeared before you last year, attended our program review, was very favorably impressed with the work that we were doing. DOE sent people from both Nevada and from Idaho. We didn't have any participation from EPA. We did invite appropriate people from there. I can't think of anybody else right now. Anyway -- DR. GARRICK: Now what was the driver for this one again? I am always curious as to whether these evolve from logical planning and technology needs development -- MR. OTT: There are several drivers -- DR. GARRICK: -- program or opportunistic or whatever. MR. OTT: One of the drivers was criticism that the Office has received with regard to involving stakeholders in the -- not only the initiation but the development and the follow-on review of programs and we look in our division an initiative to open program reviews of projects to the public and to try and invite portions of the public or other stakeholders that might have a very specific interest in it. We invited the Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses to send some people but unfortunately they were all committed to supporting another meeting at that time. DR. HORNBERGER: I don't think that was the focus of John's question. John's question has to do with this research project. How was this particular research chosen? MR. OTT: Oh, how was it chosen? DR. HORNBERGER: Right, John? DR. GARRICK: Yes. That's right. MR. OTT: Meaning either project. If you go back to the overall conceptual model of performance assessment that we are looking at, we essentially have tried to look at areas where we think there are weaknesses in the PA process and one of the areas which has been criticized and criticized fairly heavily for a number of years is KD as a constant parameter. Almost nobody is willing to stand up and say KD is an accurate representation of what happens in reality. It is essentially a parameter which varies from site to site, from radionuclide to radionuclide, from geologic substrate to geologic substrate, and unless you have perfect information you don't really know what is going on with KD. What we are hoping to do with this particular approach is establish a method for assessing KD which is based on the fundamental properties of what happens when a radionuclide is sorbed -- what is the sorbing substrate, what are the chemical conditions, is it pH that has a substantial effect on it, what effect does pH have on it? We know for instance from some of the work on the uranium that KD, if you measure a KD it varies as a function of pH. It will peak around a certain value and it will be low for both low values and high values of pH. We also know the presence of carbonate complexes can shift the position of that peak. If you go in and measure a KD and then rely on that for predictions of performance of a facility and the chemical conditions at that particular site can vary, then your prediction of the sorption capacity of that material can vary by orders of magnitude as well, so we felt we needed something that we could use to address variable conditions and do it in a calculationally not simple but calculationally friendly manner. What we were attempting to do with these two programs is, one, USGS contends that they can do it for uranium. We are going to try and go out there and see if that is true in a demonstration project. We have been working at Sandia on radionuclides much much lower z than uranium, the assumption being and I think provable that they have different sorption characteristics. If we are proved to be correct in that we can do it for uranium, then we should be able to extend it to other radionuclides. Then it becomes a case of what data do you collect on a site-specific basis. You collect chemical information and mineral substrate information, as opposed to grinding up rocks and measuring how much radionuclide comes through and goes out one end or the other end. DR. FAIRHURST: But I think again wasn't the question how did this come to be the top of this list? Would this work have been done if NRC had participated or not? MR. OTT: No, I -- in terms of how this came to be at the top of the list or I mean it's not at the top of the list. It's just two components. We looked at the parameters and we just felt that this was important. This was done based on professional judgment -- Staff recommendations -- international opinion. When we had the Menlo Park meeting a year ago, that Menlo Park meeting included PA modelers as well as geochemists from five different countries as well as people from three different DOE national laboratories. We essentially took a look at this whole process and the recommendation coming out of that was that we should continue to follow on doing this, so there is a lot of expert judgment involved, but it is not just the Staff's judgment. It is the judgment of other experts in the area. There is also an International Sorption Forum which was funded by the NEA, which should be coming out with a report very soon. I haven't seen the final report yet. They tried to take an international perspective -- I think there were 15 or 16 nations involved. Everybody provided experts to a forum to discuss the future of PA modelling and mechanistic sorption modelling within the context of performance assessment to make recommendations on how people should proceed. Preliminary indications are that the Sorption Forum of the NEA is also recommending continuing work so this kind of work is also responsive to the general opinion being reflected in the international scene right now as well. DR. STEINDLER: I've got a serious problem convincing myself that a quantum mechanical calculation that is derived from who knows what, presumably to be broadly applicable to feeding into a model is likely to be the kind of approach that you are looking for. Do I paint an unfavorable picture? MR. OTT: You present a picture which is -- I would think it is an uncommon picture. I mean if you -- DR. STEINDLER: It's not a question of commonality. It is a question of whether it is correct. MR. OTT: I don't think it is correct. DR. STEINDLER: Well, then you tell me how quantum mechanics is going to be funneled into a -- particularly since it is broadly applicable, not presumably restricted to a particular nuclide or a particular substrate.x MR. OTT: In this particular instance they are doing a particular mineral with its electronic structure and a particular radionuclide. DR. STEINDLER: Well, how is this going to -- MR. OTT: And they are looking at the way the radionuclide moves with regard to the charge distribution on the substrate. DR. STEINDLER: And you have also then presumably fixed the environment, such as the EH and pH and the chemical content of the solution? MR. OTT: Those are reflected in the calculation as well. DR. STEINDLER: And how is this then going to be applicable to a model that is moderately broadly applicable to the real world? MR. OTT: The question arose at the Menlo Park meeting as well -- DR. STEINDLER: I would imagine. MR. OTT: In fact, I was the one that really sort of pounced on somebody about it. The thing that worries me about all these models -- you start with models up here. You ask a modeler to model a situation and you give him some data and he comes back in and he's got this model and it goes through all the datapoints and you say, oh, that's great -- how many degrees of freedom do you have left or how many adjustable parameters did you use to do this calculation? Unfortunately with KDs and with almost all the models, there are a tremendous amount of adjustable parameters. The question that I raised, which is not quite the same question as you raised, is how do I go from molecular modeling with a very strong physical basis. I mean you can't argue that we are not being extremely physical when we do this, to applying this in a PA context, which is going to be in terms of a KD, if I have to do from this process to this process and the number of adjustable parameters I have to use is greater than that is being used by somebody doing an empirical calculation with a KD, I haven't done anybody any favors. I have lost all the value of the information in the process. I don't have any question about the theoretical validity of the calculations that we've made. My only question -- from microscopic structure to macroscopic structure. And I think it can be done, and I think the contractor has demonstrated that he can. What I would actually like at some time in the future to actually bring these people in and let's just see what they're actually doing. I had actually hoped that I could have gotten somebody from the Committee to go out in December, but that didn't happen. It's probably a risk to point out this atomistic modeling here, but basically we're looking at. DR. STEINDLER: Well, now that you've done it, you know -- MR. OTT: Well, I think there's a good deal of -- DR. STEINDLER: Pandora's box is open. MR. OTT: Pandora's box is open, but the contractor I think has a very good basis for what he's doing. I believe the connection is there. He's actually asked for the opportunity to demonstrate what he's doing with radium values that are being seen at Naturita. So as a result of the program review that we had out in December, we've made a connection between the Sandia project and the field demonstration project that USGS is using. One of the species, one of the metal ions that Sandia is looking at, is barium as a radium analog. They're actually going to continue that work. They're going to focus on it. They're going to go down and do some confirming experiments with radium to confirm the analogous behavior. And then they're going to try and use this to connect up to the barium -- the measured radium concentrations at Naturita and include that in the demonstration project. So I'm hoping that over the next year to two years we'll have a demonstration which very strongly connects us to the theoretical work at Sandia as well as the work that was done at Alligator Rivers. We're getting very close to my being way behind schedule. I think I've got five minutes left. I'm going to skip this, because it's an old project. This is the PNL work on organic complexions. You can look at the update. The final report on that should be out soon, and I presume that you guys generally get most of our NUREG's. MS. DEERING: Yes. DR. WYMER: Is there a number on that report yet? MR. OTT: I don't think there's a number on that one. Not yet? Okay. DR. WYMER: Will it be out in April? MR. EISENBERG: Hopefully, yes. DR. WYMER: Okay. MR. OTT: We've been doing a lot of work on flow and infiltration. In view of time, I'm trying to figure out exactly how much detail I should go to. Maricopa, we had a field study looking at monitoring strategies. We did two major technology-transfer kinds of activities during the year. The office -- well, our program has been trying to become much more active in transferring the results of our work to the licensing office and to other potential users out there. So we had this hands-on technology transfer at the Maricopa Agricultural Center for NMSS and RES staff. They went out in the field with the principal investigators and actually did a bunch of work. We then convened a public workshop on lessons learned back here in Washington, and here we had DOE, DOE national laboratories, EPA agreement States, industry representatives, a very large meeting in terms of doing technology transfer on the monitoring strategies. These are just the reports that are coming out of the Maricopa study. The one on the bottom -- I believe this is the -- okay, this is the new project, project we started last year at the University of Arizona to look at conceptual models. A related thing I want to mention to you is coming up this next month, and I meant to bring a schedule of it down. There's a meeting of the National Academy of Sciences, one of their subcommittees, they're having a meeting on conceptual models out at their research center in California. We think that's going to be a fairly important meeting. It's one that we helped initiate and fund. This is a contract that we have let with the University of Arizona, particularly Shlomo Newman, to look at the question of how do we choose, how do we select conceptual models for processes, and what's the uncertainty associated with that choice. If you want to go back to the coarsest example possible, you can think of the early days of the Yucca Mountain project when the original DOE assertion was that you only had to worry about matrix flow, you didn't have to worry about fracture flow. The question of how much error there would be from modeling only matrix flow or only fracture flow, you know, is the kind of question you would have to address in determining the uncertainty associated with fracture models, or the type of fracture models. Do you use a dual continuum model? Do you use the discrete fracture model? How much uncertainty is associated with those different approaches to quantifying your conceptualization of the site? We think the work on conceptual models -- within the Office of Research, we think it is a fairly fundamental and a fairly important piece of work to complete. At PNL we're doing some work to specifically assess parameter uncertainty in some of those codes like RESRAD, and D and D, and MEPAS. There are a lot of parameters that have been thrown into those codes without a great deal of thought in terms of, you know, are those the right parameters to use. So at PNL they're looking at default values. There's going to be a letter report, D and D, MEPAS, and RESRAD on the review of default parameters used, particularly in the flow models. The PNL is only looking at the flow models. Most of the work on default values of the dose models is being done either in the RESRAD contract or the D&D contract. Essentially another program review that is going to be open to the public. You are invited to attend or send one of your staff or come yourselves if you are so inclined. DR. STEINDLER: Are you doing instrument development? MR. OTT: No, we are looking at instruments and testing various types of instruments with regard to that. DR. STEINDLER: Existing instruments? MR. OTT: Yes. Years ago we did some instrument development, but not for a long time. DR. STEINDLER: Should you be doing instrument development? Especially non-invasive. MR. OTT: That's a good question, I don't have an answer for you. I don't know, it would depend on how good the instrumentation that is available is at getting the answers you need, and I am not an instrumentation expert, I leave that to the staff. Nobody has come to me saying that they think that there is a specific kind of instrumentation that ought to be developed. There was work at one time -- we did work at NIST on development of microprobes for measuring PH that would have been very, very useful if you were going in and trying to look at a microscopic level at things like changes in chemical conditions affecting sorption. That was actually done for the high level waste program to examine microscopic conditions around pits in metal, okay, the problem being that when you got very, very small probes, there was a lot of drift in the electronics and you didn't necessarily have predictable measurement techniques. That kind of thing hasn't been proposed to us, at least in terms of instrumentation development for the program that we are in right now. Nobody on the staff has identified it as a particular problem. This meeting will be held at the Agricultural Research Service facility in order to get people away from the building and make certain that there aren't any interruptions to the day to day operation. We are trying to hold these program reviews at the location of one of our contractors. In this case, the Agricultural Research Service volunteered their facilities. So we will be meeting here in Washington, but it will be off at the ARS meeting facility. PA. This is the diagram everybody likes to take all the boxes off. DR. STEINDLER: You see, John, I told you. DR. HORNBERGER: My comment was perfectly clear. We asked for transparency in PA but that is not what we meant. [Laughter.] MR. OTT: I went to Ralph, I said, by the way, I want to put in a lead-in page for performance assessment. Do I just include everything and just repeat the first diagram that we used that talks about the PA process? He said, no, what I am really about is connections. How do we make all these things interact together? So we took off all the boxes and left in all the lines. These red ones, by the way, over here, relate to some of those questions that you talked about earlier. Do we know -- do we have some question about the, say, soil to transfer factors? We had indicated some interest in that even before we got associated with Cheryl's branch, but the red indicated it was an area we weren't doing any work in. So, anyway. The last thing on the board is our performance assessment work at Sandia, which is the development of the Sandia environmental decision support system. We have just gone through -- we reviewed that when we were out at Sandia. It is part of that program review in December. This particular year both NRC and EPA are contributing to it, but because of some problems we had in previous years because of the interconnected nature of some of our products with a dependence on EPA funding, when EPA didn't fund, all of a sudden, our deliverables started being delayed by six and 12 months. So we have essentially disconnected any dependence on EPA funding. We are -- this project is no longer what you would call a coordinated and interdependent effort. EPA still has some goals for SEDSS in mind. They are doing some testing of it, but I don't know that there is going to be any significant further development by them. We have made some fairly major changes in the way we want do so some of the work. The SOW has been revised and we are proceeding, but we have disconnected from our dependence on EPA. In terms of what happened, we put out an MS-Windows version in March, essentially it did drinking water contaminated by single source multiple radionuclides, decay chains and a 1-D groundwater pathway. In this next year we will complete a modification to SEDSS that incorporates all the pathways, not just a drinking water pathway, but all the pathways there in the 5512, and we will incorporate a fairly simplistic groundwater alarm, much more simple than the one we have in there right now, so that you could some fairly simple calculations with SEDSS. I don't see anything else in there to focus on. I am seven minutes over. DR. HORNBERGER: Are there any further questions for Bill? DR. GARRICK: Just a global question, and maybe while I was daydreaming you answered it. Can you give us, in a capsule, the magnitude of the research program for supporting NMSS? MR. OTT: The total budget for '99 -- and I apologize, I actually didn't look at that before I came here, I should have -- is around $1.8 million, I believe, it might be as high as $2. I haven't looked at the actual bottom line recently, I have been worried about all the little lines in between. That is for the radionuclide transport program that I just went over. The work that I went over here with Cheryl's branch is about 13 -- about another $1.3 million, so $1.3 and about $1.8, we are talking about around $3 million between the two programs. Now, and as I said before, I apologize, but I didn't get a chance to get the people from the dry cash storage business down here. There are some other small programs in Cheryl's branch which I didn't bring in, some contracts that haven't started yet. The total adds up to another maybe half a million dollars. Two of those, a couple of hundred thousand dollars, are going to be in direct support of the clearance rule, in addition to Bob Meck's project. There is a major program on -- well, there is a major effort going on right now on an exemptions report that came in, it was developed over the last eight years. Major problems were found with the report and it is having to be rewritten, primarily being done by staff, but there is also a small contractor effort, about a hundred thousand dollars in support of that. There are some small grants to some people like NCRP. Actually, there is a major grant to NCRP that supports a meeting that comes out annually, too. MS. THOMAS: This is Mary Thomas. NCRP's funding had been on the level of 200,000 per year, and it has slowly dwindled down and the last I had funded them was for 100K. And a lot of that money goes to fund their annual meeting every April. MR. OTT: That's one of the other things -- MS. THOMAS: It's their core grant. ICRP gets 25K, and there's a effort with NEA for information system on occupational exposure. That gets about 20K a year. MR. OTT: So there are small things that add up to make another couple hundred dollars. But you're talking -- Cheryl's program then probably totals around 2 million, total around 2 million. DR. GARRICK: Thank you. DR. HORNBERGER: One of the things that I think has to strike one when even going through a very quick summary like this, Bill, is that you do a tremendously wide range of stuff, everything from, you know, ginning up a generic code, as John said, sort of putting together bits and pieces of things to do a very applied kind of calculation all the way down to doing quantum mechanics calculations on sorption. Now that's a pretty broad range, and I guess it's difficult for us in a short time to come to grips with how one decides whether you don't spend 20,000 bucks to collect another year's data on caps out at Beltsville. MR. OTT: I appreciate your problem. I mean, we have the same problem. And there are times when decisions are made on a political basis as opposed to a rational basis. You know, I could look -- if I had the opportunity today to maintain the Beltsville full six trenches and fund it for 30 years because it would give me information on how really well constructed trench caps work, I think that would be an extremely valuable thing to have. But unfortunately it was focused on low-level waste. DR. HORNBERGER: It went away. MR. OTT: And it went away. DR. HORNBERGER: Yes. MR. OTT: We did -- don't get me wrong, we achieved our major objective. We tested four different cap designs. We had a couple of controls. We essentially demonstrated that the bioengineered concept worked. We also demonstrated that the capillary break covers work. There had been work done at Sheffield which indicated that it didn't work. The principal investigator, Bob Schultz, essentially said it didn't work because they didn't build it right. There was a really interesting demonstration in that project of the importance of quality assurance in construction, because if you get fines into the capillary break, it breaks down. DR. HORNBERGER: It's gone. Right. MR. OTT: So we did achieve the objectives of that project. Don't get me wrong about that. DR. HORNBERGER: No, I understand. MR. OTT: It's almost nostalgic to say boy, I'd really like to have that data over 30 years. We're doing other things. We're looking at archeological samples of slags to try and get that time constant. There are so few things that we do that allow us to demonstrate time dependence over a long period of time, and when we find one, such as natural analogs, say Alligator River is looking at an ore body that's evolved over time, those snapshots when you're available to get time dependence in for a program that is essentially concerned with long-term performance, that's really a thing that's very desirable. DR. HORNBERGER: For the record, I just wanted to say one last thing, and then I'll ask for questions. But I don't know -- obviously I don't know all of the research that's going on, but I do know the people with the USGS involved in your work in Colorado and the people in Sandia involved in some of the fundamental geochemistry and sorption stuff, and I know the Arizona group very well. And these are all very good people, so I'm sure that you're sponsoring some very good work. MR. OTT: Actually the program at Sandia, Ed -- is Ed still here? Wasn't there a national or an award given to that group this last year? MR. O'DONNELL: They got one of the -- this is Ed O'Donnell of the Office of Research. They did get one of the laboratory quality awards for the work, and the group is linked with many others in the community. The group is working on natural attenuation, geochem, and everything else. I'd also like to just make a note to Dr. Steindler again, the viewgraph gave you a distortion. If I understood you, you were really disturbed about the first sentence of that thing with the atomistic modeling. And that's only -- this is one of those geochemical projects -- and that was only a small part of the project, you know, the characterization of the soil-forming minerals, the clays and everything else was part of it, sorption and everything else. And it was an integrated whole series of things in that project. And I'll try and get maybe a statement of work to Howard or something so you get a bigger view of the program. DR. STEINDLER: But on the other issue that George just raised, an agency that doesn't understand long-term programs and the importance of long-term programs ought not to be in the business of doing long-term regulations. DR. HORNBERGER: Right. MR. OTT: No comment. DR. STEINDLER: I mean, I made the same comment that the Department of Energy when they decided they were going to close down long-term corrosion testing of things like metals and glass. DR. HORNBERGER: Right. DR. STEINDLER: And it turned out that for one reason or another we managed to keep some programs going, and it was a good thing, because it turns out that the models don't necessarily allow linear extrapolations forever. You can pass on the rest of it. MR. OTT: As I said, you know, you go into a project with certain objectives that you have to meet, and we met those at Beltsville. There are others that it would be nice to meet that we partially achieved. We got 10 to 12 years worth of performance -- DR. HORNBERGER: And, you know, we do understand that. It's just as -- we share some of the frustration that you expressed in that long-term data sets, as we know, are very difficult to come by, and it's always a crime when we see something that's relatively inexpensive terminated because of -- well, at any rate, we're just expressing our frustration as well. Other questions? Charles? DR. FAIRHURST: No. DR. GARRICK: I just would like to make a comment or two. I guess what I'm -- one of the things that I'm looking for is what the underlying drivers are for the research program, and I'm having trouble with that one. As I understand it, basically what happens is NMSS decides what they want to do research on, and farms that out to RES to do it. But I guess to give an example of why I'm not clear on what the process is, given the challenges that the Commission has ahead of it in the area of nuclear wastes, I guess I would have expected to see a more systematic process of identifying research projects, and I would have also expected to have seen some of the things that are really important and fundamental issues in for example the Yucca Mountain project that are facing us, such as simple things like the temperature effects on Alloy-22, the issue of seepage, the issue of chemical processes that drive the releases of radionuclides from the EBS or from the fuel itself, the issue of dilution factors, which is something that is talked about a lot. You did have something on flow and transport, but it wasn't clear that it was focusing on some of the areas of greatest uncertainties such as in the saturated zone. And so on. And I'm having trouble coming to grips with what the structure is for decision-making with respect to research projects, and I have to apologize, I just finished chairing a meeting or committee for the National Academy of Sciences that was taking a hard look at DOE, and their underlying bases for identifying technology needs in research and development, and have been engulfed in a sea of research projects there, and trying to understand their rational basis and origin, and I am having the same problem here. I don't expect an answer, but I think that's one of -- and if you take away the bookkeeping part and the data collection part and the methods development part of your program, except for this last stuff you have shown where there were some laboratory measurements and what-have-you, very little of it really seems to be what I would really call research. And so it's a very small program, it doesn't seem to have an underlying mechanism for its evolution, or at least I haven't seen it, and it makes it very difficult to write about it which we have to do. MR. OTT: Let me make a couple of observations. In terms of user needs, in terms of we do only what NMSS asks us to do, we haven't received a comprehensive user need from NMSS in probably more than four years. The last one occurred when there was still a low level waste program. We have had since that time a couple of small user needs on in situ uranium mining which we have responded to with an in-house task force which is doing the work on that, so it doesn't show up in the briefings because it's a non-funded project. In terms of temperature dependence and high level waste, we have no high level waste dollars. There is nothing in our budget, and as soon as we'd start doing work on elevated temperatures, it automatically becomes high level waste work, because nothing else involves elevated temperatures. So we can't, the way the operation works right now, we cannot do any work on things with elevated temperature effects. I agree that, for instance, sorption, when we first started working on it, one of the real critical questions was there's data below 100 degrees C, but there's very little data on geochemical effects above 100 degrees C. We ran a fairly large program at LBL for a number of years on elevated temperature geochemistry, but that doesn't mean we finished the job. But there were certainly -- but certainly elevated temperatures are an important thing for the high level waste program. Without high level waste money, we cannot do any high level waste research. DR. GARRICK: It's a strange situation you find yourself in. We have one presenter telling us that we are pretty much out of the low level waste business, that that's handled by the states, but that seems to be the arena in which you are doing some research. On the other hand, your -- the agency is faced with licensing a facility unlike it's ever licensed before that is totally dependent upon understanding long term phenomena and what-have-you and essentially it's a hands-off situation. One of these days I would like somebody to explain how all this works. MR. OTT: Our staff has -- all our staff has been previously involved at least in the nuclear transport program, or previously involved in doing high level waste research as well. They try to stay up with the program, we try to remain conversant. We talk to them. We try and let them know of things that we are doing in the generic program that would be of value. For instance, this mechanistic sorption modeling work we think would be of value to the far field, not necessarily to the heated region, because we aren't doing anything in the heated region. But certainly in the far field. One thing we are not looking at right now at least is fracture coatings and sorption on the fracture coatings and how that might differ from the mechanistic modeling of just doing matrix flow. In terms of the structure and in terms of doing what's important, everything that I have looked at -- I'm part of that prioritization team for the office. When I looked at NIH, when I looked at DOE, when I looked at EPA, everything I saw there had an extremely strong component of expert judgment. I reviewed the prioritization of research for the mouse genomics research program which is about the same size as the Office of Research in the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, about $40 million, but focused only on mouse genomics research. They brought in an expert review panel of something like 200 experts from around the world. They sat them down in Bethesda for a week, they divided them up into committees, they closed the doors, and at the end of the week they came out with a list of prioritized programs. Three of them. One for about $13 million; one for about $18 million; and one for whatever the remainder is. There was nothing in that process that spoke to me of a systematic, organized method of evaluating research. NIH is one of the most respected research organizations in the world. We do as much as we can with the experts and the Staff. We do as much as we can with the contractors on the Staff. We bring in outside experts as much as we can. We don't have the resources to convene a 200-person expert panel from around the world. We take targets of opportunity. When we hosted the Alligator Rivers meeting in Menlo Park a year ago, what I did was I said I've got experts from five countries here. I'm going to hold a workshop on the day after the Alligator Rivers meeting and I'm going to invite them to attend, and they all attended. Usually what happens is the day after the meeting, we all go off and we visit a national forest or we take a laboratory tour or something else. I cheated. I tried to get the international experts to come in. We had a good discussion. As a result of that, we had a reason for doing the work at USGS and for refocusing some of the work at Sandia. So that part of the program we brought them in. Tom Nicholson is probably one of the most aggressive people I know of in terms of going out and getting the National Academy involved in looking at our programs. We have a grant with the National Academy where Jake Phillip will take down his work on concrete, and we will take down the work on covers, Tom will take down the work on hydrology and ask them for informal reviews. If we are asking for a formal review, we have to give them money, you know, additional money so they can farm it out. He goes down and he asks for an informal review, and he gets people to give him comments back. We are factoring in professional judgment wherever we can. The work that we are doing on conceptual models, the workshop that we have sponsored out in California next -- in a couple of weeks from now, I think is some of the most fundamental and some of the most important work in the area of PA modeling and hydrology modeling that has been done in the last 10 years, because it is addressing a fundamental question that nobody has addressed before. I am real interested in that. I'd like to go to the meeting. Unfortunately, I can't, because I have to do a peer review of a bunch of DOE projects. In other areas, PA, we have got one project, we have got one contractor. We are trying to pull together a systematic tool for NMSS. NMSS wants that tool. We don't have a user need for SEDSS, but they sure as heck want it. They want a usable tool that they can use for a large variety of sites, particularly for the difficult sites. That's what SEDSS is determined -- is designed to use. We are responding to a want in the absence of a specific user need. The slag work, NMSS wants the slag work. They need help on those slag projects. Where they want help and they need help, we are trying to respond. Where they have expressed a specific interest, we are trying to gather the national and international experts in the fields, get their opinions and reflect them in our program. With the resources we have, I don't know what more we can do. DR. GARRICK: Well, I didn't mean to drag it out. I was just trying to express some of the concerns I have about trying to establish a logical basis for identifying research projects and prioritizing them. And I would agree with George that it is obvious that the people you have working on the projects, that's not the problem; they seem to be extremely competent. But I do have some concern about the logical basis of the research program, of the size of the research program, given the challenges that the NRC has and so on. MR. OTT: I guess one thing I could say is that if we go forward with AHP in the office, there will be pressure to apply AHP to individual programs as well, and unfortunately AHP is not a process which is based solely on risk or solely on -- it considers a lot of factors. The feasibility. Is it -- for this particular research project, what is the likelihood that you are going to succeed? I mean you do need to consider things like that, but it's not the kind of thing like I'm going to do this because it's -- this contribution -- it is only going to be one factor. How important it is with regard to the risk calculation. So -- DR. HORNBERGER: Don't misread some of these comments too much. We have all, I think all of us here have been involved in research for our careers, and we know that expert judgment or whatever you want to -- professional judgment has to enter into a lot of these choices. We are not arguing that, okay. In fact, I would be aghast if you came in and told me that you had a formula where you just plugged in a couple numbers and out came what you should do. That isn't the point at all. Questions from anyone else? The Staff? Anyone else? Okay. Well, thanks very much, Bill. I appreciate your time. MR. OTT: Thank you. DR. HORNBERGER: Mr. Chairman. DR. GARRICK: Okay. I think that what I would like to suggest, given that this is a break point between being on the record and off the record, I would like to declare a short recess of five or 10 minutes, and then we will come back and address our Commission meeting, et cetera. [Whereupon, at 2:30 p.m., the recorded portion of the meeting was adjourned, to reconvene at 8:30 a.m., Wednesday, February 24, 1999.]
Page Last Reviewed/Updated Friday, September 29, 2017
Page Last Reviewed/Updated Friday, September 29, 2017