Workshop on Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment
The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Offices of Nuclear Regulatory Research, Nuclear Reactor Regulation, and New Reactors in cooperation with Federal agency partners: U.S. Department of Energy; Federal Energy Regulatory Commission; U.S. Army Corps of Engineers; U.S. Bureau of Reclamation; and U.S. Geological Survey organized and conducted a "Workshop on Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA)" at NRC headquarters auditorium, Rockville, Maryland, January 29 – 31, 2013. This research workshop provided a venue for the sharing of information on probabilistic flood hazard assessments of extreme natural and human-related events (i.e., annual exceedance probabilities much less than 2.0 E-3 per year) among the Federal community. The organizing committee chose the session topics, presenters and panelists.
The workshop objectives were to:
- assess, discuss, and inform participants on, the state-of-the-practice for extreme flood assessments within a risk context with the following objectives;
- facilitate the sharing of information between both Federal agencies and other interested parties to bridge the current state-of-knowledge between extreme flood assessments and risk assessments of critical infrastructures;
- seek ideas and insights on possible ways to develop a PFHA for use in probabilistic risk assessments (PRA);
- identify potential components of flood-causing mechanisms that lend themselves to probabilistic analysis and warrant further study (i.e., computer-generated storm events);
- establish realistic plans for coordination of PFHA research studies as the follow-up to the workshop observations and insights; and
- develop plans for a cooperative research strategy on PFHA for the workshop partners.
The technical focus was to:
- understand flood assessment needs of the participating Federal agencies with respect to the evaluation of critical industry infrastructure;
- leverage the flood hazard risk assessment studies performed to date to assess the applicability and practicality of using probabilistic approaches for extreme flood hazard assessments within a risk framework;
- discuss research or other activities needed to address identified gaps or challenges in the use of PFHA for extreme flood assessments within PRA; and
- determine how these PFHA approaches and methods can be best utilized in conjunction with more traditional deterministic approaches.
Related Documents
- Final Program of the Federal Workshop on Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA)
- Public Meeting Summary
- Panel 1: Federal Agencies' Interests and Needs in PFHA
- Introduction – Nilesh Chokshi and Mark Blackburn
- Commissioner George Apostolakis – Importance of Risk-Informed, Performance Based Regulations
- US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) Staff Needs In PFHA – Fernando Ferrante
- Transferable Methods from Seismic Hazard – Annie Kammerer
- Bureau of Reclamation Dam Safety Program – John England
- FERC'S Need for PFHA – David Lord
- Status of ANS 2.31, "Determining Design Basis On-Site Flooding Caused by Precipitation at Nuclear Facility Sites" – John Stevenson
- ANS-2.8 Working Group Status, "Determining External Flood Hazards for Nuclear Facilities" – Yan Gao and Ray Schneider
- Panel 2: State-of-the-Practice in Identifying and Quantifying Extreme Flood Hazards
- Overview and History of Flood Frequency in the United States – Will Thomas
- Extreme Flood Frequency Analysis Concepts, Philosophy and Strategies – Jery Stedinger
- Quantitative Paleoflood Hydrology – Jim O'Connor
- USACE Methods for Quantifying Extreme Flood Hazards – Doug Clemetson
- Hydrologic Hazard Curve Methods for Dam Safety – John England
- Panel 3: Extreme Precipitation Evens
- Introduction – John England and Chandra Pathak
- An Observation-Driven Approach to Rainfall and Flood Frequency Analysis Using High-Resolution Radar… – Daniel Wright
- Regional Precipitation – Frequency Analysis And Extreme Storms Including PMP –Mel Schaefer
- High-Resolution Numerical Modeling as a Tool to Assess Extreme Precipitation Events – Kelly Mahoney and Jason Caldwell
- Precipitation Frequency Estimates For The Nation And Extremes – A Perspective – Geoff Bonnin
- Extreme Precipitation Frequency for Dam Safety and Nuclear Facilities – A Perspective – Victoria Sankovich
- Panel 4: Flood-Induced Dam and Levee Failures
- Risk-Informed Approach to Flood-Induced Dam and Levee Failures – David Bowles
- Dutch Approach to Levee Reliability – Timo Schweckendiek
- Risk-Informed Decision Making Approach for Inflow Design Flood Selection and Accommodation for Dams – Jason Hedien
- Incorporating Breach Parameter Estimation and Physically-Based Dam Breach Modeling – Tony Wahl
- Risk Informed Decision Framework for Dam And Levee Safety – David Margo
- Probabilistic Risk Analysis for Dams – Martin McCann
- Extreme Flood Frequency Analysis: Practicing Risk Analysis – Jery R. Stedinger
- Panel 5: Tsunamis Flooding
- Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis – Hong Kie Thio
- Recent Advances in PTHA Methodology – Randall LeVeque
- Geological Perspective on Submarine Landslide Tsunami Probability – Uri ten Brink
- Modeling Generation and Propagation of Landslide Tsunamis – Patrick Lynett
- Tsunami Flooding Assessment Using Forecast Tools – Yong Wei
- Panel 6: Riverine Flooding
- Introduction – Rajiv Prasad and Will Thomas
- Riverine PFHA for NRC Safety Reviews – Why and How – Rajiv Prasad
- Flood Frequency of a Regulated River – The Missouri River – Doug Clemetson
- Stochastic Event Flood Model (SEFM) – Mel Schaefer
- SEFM Case Study Altus Dam OK – Nicole Novembre
- Paleoflood Studies and their Application to Reclamation Dam Safety – Ralph Klinger and John England
- Panel 7: Extreme Storm Surge for Coastal Areas
- Introduction – Don Resio and Ty Wamsley
- Dutch Approach to Coastal Flood Hazard – Joost Beckers
- Recent Work and Future Directions in Coastal Surge Modeling and Sea Level Extremes within NOAA – Stephen Gill
- FEMA's Coastal Flood Hazard Analyses in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico – Tucker Mahoney
- Modeling System for Applications to Very-Low Probability Events and Flood Response – Ty Wamsley
- Coastal Inundation Risk Assessment – Jen Irish
- Panel 8: Combined Events Flooding
- Introduction – David Margo and Joost Beckers
- Combined Events in External Flooding Evaluation for Nuclear Power Plants – Kit Ng
- Assessing Levee System Performance Using Existing and Future Risk Analysis Tools – Christopher Dunn
- Seismic Risk of Co-Located Critical Facilities – Effects of Correlation and Uncertainty – Martin McCann
- Combined Storm Surge – Riverine Flood Events – Joost Beckers
- Combining Flood Risks from Snowmelt Rain and Ice – The Platte River in Nebraska – Doug Clemetson
- Combined Events A Systems Perspective – Patrick Regan
- Panel 9: Summary of Significant Observations, Insights and Identified Opportunities for Collaboration on PFHA
- Panel 1 – Federal Agencies' Interests and Needs in PFHA
- Panel 2 – State-of-the-Practice in Identifying and Quantifying Extreme Flood Hazards
- Panel 3 – Extreme Precipitation Events
- Panel 4 – Flood-Induced Dam and Levee Failures
- Panel 5 – Tsunami Flooding
- Panel 6 – Riverine Flooding
- Panel 7 – Extreme Storm Surge for Coastal Areas
- Panel 8 – Combined Events Flooding
- Panel 9 – Nathan Siu – Personal Comments
- Webcast
Please note that the workshop proceedings are being developed and will be issued as a NUREG/CP report. The proceedings will provide summaries of the presentations, panel discussions, and major observations and insights.
Page Last Reviewed/Updated Thursday, August 17, 2017
Page Last Reviewed/Updated Thursday, August 17, 2017