Predictive Bias and Sensitivity in NRC Fuel Performance Codes (NUREG/CR-7001)
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Manuscript Completed: April 2009
Date Published: October 2009
K.J. Geelhood, W.G. Luscher, C.E. Beyer, D.J. Senor, and
M.E. Cunningham, D.D. Lanning, H.E. Adkins
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
P.O. Box 999
Richland, WA 99352
NRC Job Code N6326
Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Washington DC 20555-0001
The latest versions of the fuel performance codes, FRAPCON-3 and FRAPTRAN were examined to ensure best estimate behavior of the codes and to ensure (to the extent possible that unintentional bias has been eliminated. Each individual model and type of code prediction was examined and compared to the data that was used to develop the model. In addition, a brief literature search was performed to determine if more recent data have become available since the original model development for model comparison. If new data were discovered, these data were compared to the models and code predictions in FRAPCON-3.3 and FRAPTRAN-1.3 in order to determine if the model is biased. Models or integral effect prediction found to be biased relative to the data were updated and corrected in the upcoming versions of the codes, FRAPCON-3.4 and FRAPTRAN 1.4. Areas where modeling may be lacking were noted for further model development. The details of the updated models are provided in this report.
Subsequently, a sensitivity study was performed on the steady-state code, FRAPCON-3.3 to determine the effects of uncertainty in model predictions, manufacturing parameters and power history on the code outputs of regulatory interest.