Advisory Committee on Nuclear Waste 124th Meeting, January 17, 2001
Official Transcript of Proceedings NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION Title: Advisory Committee on Nuclear Waste 124th Meeting Docket Number: (not applicable) Location: Rockville, Maryland Date: Wednesday, January 17, 2001 Work Order No.: NRC-030 Pages 114-230 NEAL R. GROSS AND CO., INC. Court Reporters and Transcribers 1323 Rhode Island Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20005 (202) 234-4433. UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION + + + + + 124TH ACNW MEETING ADVISORY COMMITTEE ON NUCLEAR WASTE (ACNW) + + + + + WEDNESDAY JANUARY 17, 2001 + + + + + ROCKVILLE, MARYLAND + + + + + The Advisory Committee met at Conference Room 2B3, Two White Flint North, B. John Garrick, presiding. COMMITTEE MEMBERS: JOHN GARRICK Chairman GEORGE HORNBERGER Member MILTON LEVENSON Member RAYMOND WYMER Member ACRS STAFF PRESENT: John T. Larkins, Executive Director Lynn G. Deering Richard Major Andrew Campbell Robert Johnson, NRC ALSO PRESENT: Dr. Thomas Leschine Larry Camper John Ahearne John Greeves Paul Genoa, NEI Bob Andrews Bob Budnitz Bob Bernero . I-N-D-E-X AGENDA ITEM PAGE Opening Remarks by Chairman Garrick 117 Institutional Control Status Opening Comments by Larry Camper 119 Presentation by Bob Johnson 120 Comments by Paul Genoa 144 Comments by John Greeves 152 Comments by Larry Camper 154 NRC Report, Long-Term Institutional Management of U.S. Department of Energy Legacy Waste Sites Presentation by Dr. Thomas S. Leschine 168 Comments by Bob Budnitz 210 Adjournment 229 . P-R-O-C-E-E-D-I-N-G-S (8:30 a.m.) CHAIRMAN GARRICK: Good morning. The meeting will now come to order. This is the second day of the 124th Meeting of the Advisory Committee on Nuclear Waste. My name is John Garrick, Chairman of the ACNW. Other members of the Committee include George Hornberger, Milt Levenson and Ray Wymer. This entire meeting will be open to the public. Today, the Committee will hear a presentation by the NRC staff on the Institutional Control Status, hear a presentation on the principal findings in the National Research Council Report, "Long-Term Institutional Management of U.S. Department of Energy Legacy Waste Sites." That presentation will be given by the Chairman of the Committee, of that Committee, Tom Leschine. We will meet with the Office of Nuclear Materials Safety and Safeguards to discuss items of mutual interest. And finally, we're going to review the ACNW 2000 Action Plan and discuss relevant changes for our 2001 Action Plan. And in the course of this we were going to be honored by having a discussion with former NRC Chairman John Ahearne. Richard Major is the designated federal official for the initial portion of today's meeting. This meeting is being conducted in accordance with the provisions of the Federal Advisory Committee Act. We haven't received any statements from members of the public regarding today's session. The procedure is for anybody wishing to do so, to make those wishes known to the Committee staff. And as usual, it's requested that each speaker be sure and use one of the microphones and identify themselves and speak clearly. So with that we're going to move directly to the Agenda. The Committee member that has the lead on institutional control matters is Ray Wymer, and I'll turn the meeting over to Ray. DR. WYMER: Thanks, John. This morning, we're going to hear two presentations on the issue of institutional control, which is a particularly thorny issue in that it's open-ended. There is really no end in time to institutional control. It goes on as long as there is something to be controlled, and in some cases that's a very long time. We're going to hear first from the NRC staff. Bob Johnson will talk about it, and then about the NRC's approach and the handling of this issue up to this point and where they plan to go. And then we'll hear from Tom Leschine, who, as John said, chaired the Nuclear -- the National Academy of Sciences Committee that wrote a report on this about a year ago. So we'll start right off here with Johnson and -- MR. CAMPER: Good morning, Mr. Chairman, Committee. For those of you who don't know me, I know the Committee does, I'm Larry Camper, the chief of the Decommissioning Branch, and I wanted to make one or two comments before Robert -- DR. WYMER: Okay. Fine. I'm sorry. MR. CAMPER: -- gave you the briefing. You know, in decommissioning we face a lot of challenges. Decommissioning's highly visible. The Commission has a great deal of interest in decommissioning, and perhaps one of the most daunting challenges that we face is with this question of adequate institutional controls. We have about 10 to 12 sites right now that are opting to pursue the restricted release scenario at this point in time. We've not had a site go from A to Z yet. We've not put in place a successful set of institutional controls. So literally, we are talking with you in real time as we go through the implementation of the license termination rule and the provision for institutional controls set forth in sub-part (e) of Part 20. Robert is the project manager dealing with the institutional controls issue. He's a member of our Institutional Working Group and he has been the lead on the staff as we work toward an arrangement, hopefully, ultimately with the Department of Energy, and he'll tell you more about that. So I just wanted you to know from my standpoint that we're putting a lot of management time and energy into the institutional controls issue. It's very challenging, in particular, finding a responsible third party to step up to the plate and assume the stewardship in perpetuity that's called for in the Regulations. So with that, I think I'll ask Robert to step us through the briefing. DR. JOHNSON: Thanks, Larry. Good morning, and it's a pleasure to be with you today as a speaker. I've in my past been your coordinator for many years, so I trust that you'll be kind to me. (Laughter) DR. JOHNSON: But really, you now -- DR. HORNBERGER: Fat chance. CHAIRMAN GARRICK: We've finally got you where we want you. DR. LEVENSON: And some of us are new and don't have to be kind to you. (Laughter) DR. JOHNSON: So we'll see how this goes, but as Larry said, this is an emerging issue. It's a new issue, not only that we're facing, but of course, other federal agencies, Department of Energy and EPA, are also wrestling with this issue, maybe on a different scale, but it certainly -- our work on this issue is very important. And it's sort of right now, I kind of view it as there's more questions about this issue than there are answers. So I'll say I welcome your questions. However, I may not have all the answers. But it's good to kind of get those out and understand, you know, what other people's views are, what people think some of the key concerns are with proceeding here. So today, in this talk I'll give -- it's just to point -- kind of -- it's like a status briefing. In a sense, this is new and a starting for us. We'd like to tell you where we are right at this point in time, and where we're headed. And then maybe periodically, you know, as we go down this sort of uncertain path, you know, we'll keep you informed you and we'll brief you on the status of our progress. But today, I thought it was useful to give you some background, you know. What are just a summary of the institutional requirement -- institutional control requirements of the license termination rule, what we see the institutional control issue to be, the NRC initiatives to seek resolution, where we are right now with respect to seeking that resolution, and then just mention, you know, our involvement in keeping stakeholders informed. And of course, the ACNW is an important stakeholder, too. I'd like to just go over some of the requirements in the license termination rule. Of course, as you're familiar, the license termination rule allows for the option of restricted release, assuming certain requirements are met. And institutional control requirements are one part of the set of requirements that would have to ultimately be met for any site that is proposing for a restricted release. And so today's talk is only focusing on just those parts of the license termination rule. First of all, with respect to dose criteria, legally enforceable institutional controls are required so that doses will not exceed 25 millirem in the future. But the rule also included caps on doses, assuming that institutional controls would fail. So in a way, I think the rule was recognizing, you know, some of the issues that have been brought up about it's not likely or it will be very challenging for institutional controls to remain effective over the time period, the long time period that, you know, we're faced with. And so as a result, caps were put into the rule to minimize those consequences. Two caps, possibilities are there that if controls fail that doses would not exceed 100 millirem per year, or for special cases they would not exceed 500 millirem per year, and that's for special cases. Now, let's look a little bit at the special case for 500 millirem, because this is a special case. It is a higher dose, of course; 100 millirem being public, you know, dose limit, the 500 exceeds that. So the rule contemplated this would be very rare and certain very stringent criteria would be needed if this were to be approved, and certain conditions would have to be met if this were to be approved. First of all, it would only be, or this particular case would only be acceptable if the applicant could demonstrate that further reductions down to the 100 millirem are either not technically achievable, prohibitively expensive or would result in net public or environmental harm. So that's the first criterion that they would have to meet. Secondly, they would -- the applicant would have to put in durable institutional controls. This might include things like redundant controls, multiple; that is, multiple controls. Should one fail, you know, others would be available to act. This might include certain engineering features that might be more durable. And then lastly, government ownership was contemplated as a possibility in the statement of considerations, and possibly federal ownership and control. Also, in the rule, five-year rechecks for institutional controls were required so that doses -- could be confirmed that doses would not exceed the 25 millirem. And this limits the time period. Should there be a failure, theoretically anyhow, if you do have five-year rechecks then you would only have a dose exceeding the 25 millirem limit for a limited period of time, a five-year period of time. The rule also required that a government entity or an independent third party be -- that arrangements be made, you know, to either provide oversight to make sure that the monitoring and maintenance, you know, and the five-year rechecks were being done or step in and provide for that themselves. Finally, requirements for sufficient financial assurance are put in place so that there is funding available for rechecks and controls and maintenance. So the net result for this special case, 500 millirem, if it's needed, you know, is that you would be limiting it to five-year periods of time. It would also be a flag that more durable controls, whatever they can be proposed, you know, would be needed. And so it's a way of saying, these are the higher risk cases, and so more, much more needs to be done, you know, to protect health and safety over the long period of time for these particular cases if they're to be approved. The rule also has requirements to seek public involvement, in particular, that licensees are to seek the advice of affected parties in the public early in the planning process. And this is important for two reasons in particular. The local, state governments are often the ones that understand the controls that are appropriate for this particular area the best. Which ones, you know, are going to be most effective, most enforceable? So it's important to get their advice early on in the planning stage. Secondly, seeking advice from the public is important because they're the people that are going to be affected. They're the people that will be living with the facility, you know, for a long period of time. And so their views on impacts to them and their community are important to consider. It's important also to say that the decommissioning plan that is required before any remediation begins is to contain the plan that the licensee has for institutional control. And it's to contain a number of the things listed here. It's a report on how they sought the advice of stakeholders, what things were recommended by the stakeholders and how they considered the stakeholders' input in coming up with their institutional control plans in the decommissioning plan. So this is all done up front before any work is started. It's also done up front when the planning for remediation is going on, so that you have this sort of integration of how you're planning for the long-term institutional controls, and maybe how that fits into the actual clean-up of a site. All that is done up front in the decommissioning plan before any work begins. All that is done, the input from the parties is done up front. The rule asks that advice be sought from the public on whether or not they feel doses, you know, will exceed 25 millirem; sufficiency of financial assurance. Will the controls proposed by the licensee be enforceable? And then making sure that the plans proposed will not impose undue burdens on the local community or the affected parties. The NRC, of course, will review what the licensee has done and how they've considered the public input as the staff, you know, reviews and approves the plan. The rule also has requirements for sufficient financial assurance to allow a third party, including a government custodian, to assure and carry out the five-year rechecks in the control and maintenance. In the event that, you know, the arrangements that the licensee has made, you know, fail financially, there will be a fund, you know, set up that would provide funding for this over the time period needed. Now, what is the issue? I've just sort of summarized, glossed over the requirements in the rule, but what is the issue? And of course, I think it first focuses on durability. We certainly have mentioned that the institutional controls require a long time period. And when you look at the 10 or 12 sites that currently we're thinking are either planning or considering restrictive release, for the most part they're uranium/thorium sites, long-lived radio nuclides that will require up to a 1,000-year time period for controls. And so this long time period is one of the challenges. And you know, there are many factors that could contribute to durability, you know, that you might hope would help deal with this challenge like redundancy or layering of controls that might be proposed, like I said, the five-year rechecks, and having funds available. These all contribute, you know, to achieving, you know, the duration or making sure that the controls remain effective over the time period. But the time period is still unprecedented. It is kind of the crux of the problem. And I think, of course, as we'll hear in the talk after myself from Dr. Leschine, the National Academy Report identified a number of limitations on institutional controls. I'll just mention a few, but of course, he'll be giving you the summary. But some of their conclusions were that there's a limited likelihood that controls will remain in effect over this time period. Some oversight enforcement in enforcement of these controls is needed, but there's going to be a lot of difficulty in enforcement and in providing sustained oversight. What we need, they concluded, was some way of detecting failures that might occur, and then the ability to correct over that long time period. So in a way, I might say that some of the requirements in our license termination rule addressed some of the National Academy recommendations, like our legally enforceable controls, five-year rechecks, independent oversight, financial assurance. You know, these are all good things in the rule, you know, that at least and of course, some of these issues in the National Academy Report are not new. They've been around, and so our rule incorporated a lot of thoughts on what might make these effective. However, that's sort of the good news part. The rule has some good things in it, you know, but we're now finding difficulties with implementing those requirements. We're finding difficulties in identifying willing and acceptable governments or independent third parties, you know, to provide the continuity, the sustainability, the oversight, the enforceability. There's a potential and in some cases a real unwillingness of local and state government to accept this long-term responsibility. Secondly, there are a lot of concerns raised, also in the National Academy Report, with the long-term effectiveness of private arrangements, ownership, passage of ownership, you know. How do you maintain or transition from one owner to the next, you know? How do you assure that? And then lastly right now, at this point in time there's uncertainty regarding DOE's agreement to assume authority provided by the Nuclear Waste Policy Act, for them to provide long-term institutional controls for sites like ours. I'll talk a little bit more about this in a minute, about this provision in the Nuclear Waste Policy Act. But the way the law is written, it's discretionary rather than mandatory that DOE assume this authority. So where do we go from here? We have an initiative underway or just beginning to resolve this -- hopefully resolve this institutional control issue. We have begun discussions with DOE regarding the feasibility of DOE providing long-term institutional control under the Nuclear Waste Policy Act, what we call 151(b). That's the shortcut, you know, 151(b). We met in December, first with DOE most recently, and we're meeting again this week. We've provided them background information about our rule requirements, about the sites that we envision are possibilities in going this route, and we proposed some plans for proceeding, you know, for their consideration. Again, we emphasize the point that we're really only looking at maybe 10 or 12 sites that are currently considering restrictive release. The actual number of sites that might be candidates for transfer to DOE might be far fewer. And that has to be worked out, you know, as licensees firm up their plans, as the staff, you know, reviews their applications. But in any event, it's important to understand, you know, for DOE to understand, for others to understand how many sites we're thinking of and the nature of our sites compared to sites that DOE may be used to, more used to in facing every day within their complex. Those are far smaller, far simpler relatively speaking. So that's important for all of us to keep in mind. Like to point out that in December the Commission did approve the staff's initiative to seek an MOU with DOE regarding 151(b). And very importantly, the Commission wants to be kept informed about our progress, and we're to immediately inform them if we're not successful in gaining DOE's agreement, you know, for possible transfer of these sites. Now, let's just summarize a little bit of what the Nuclear Waste Policy Act, 151(b) provisions include. As I said before, DOE is authorized to assume title and custody of the low-level waste and the lands following license termination by NRC. And then they would be the owner and they would provide protection over the long-term, but that's discretionary and DOE has to agree to accept that authority. There are conditions specified in the Nuclear Waste Policy Act for Commission determinations. One is that, of course, our license is terminated. Two is that NRC requirements, including financial assurance, have been met, that there would be a no-cost transfer to the federal government. And then the Commission would have to determine and make a finding that federal ownership is either necessary or desirable for protection of the public health and safety over the time period. Now, I'd like to just sort of mention a few of the benefits that might be gained by proceeding with this approach to resolution. We feel that the federal government may be in the best position to provide sustainable controls over the long-term. Of course, I don't think that you can really guarantee something for the time period we're looking at, but you can do the best you can, and federal control may be the best way for achieving sustainable controls. But federal control may be the only option that we have if local and state governments are unwilling to accept this responsibility. Our rule did say local, state or federal governments might be preferable, you know, for providing this type of oversight long-term control. Federal control may be the most convincing way to assure the affected parties that the controls will be sustainable. But of course, I'm sure there'll be many concerns about, you know, showing that or demonstrating that. The statement of considerations in the license termination rule notes that federal control is acceptable. So the Commission previously, or when the rule was promulgated, you know, did consider that particularly for sites with the uranium/thorium long- lived radio nuclides that federal control is acceptable. The statement of considerations in the license termination rule also recognized that DOE is an option under the Nuclear Waste Policy Act 151(b). So they at that time recognized that this particular part of the law was applicable to these kinds of sites. We feel that resolving the institutional control issue is very necessary for the acceptability of the restrictive release option. If this issue can't be resolved then that option is going to be very difficult, if not impossible, to implement. Lastly, DOE has valuable experience and expertise in long-term stewardship. You're probably aware that, I think it's over the last 11 years they've been working with us under UMTRFCA, and for the Title I sites, about 20 sites have been -- or long-term stewardship arrangements have been set up and DOE is providing long-term stewardship for those sites. And I believe two Title II sites have been transferred to DOE and long-term stewardship. So under -- we have worked together with them under this program for very similar sites. Although they may be larger sites, they're very similar, and we've had a very positive experience working that. It's been successful. Of course, DOE will also have the responsibility for long-term stewardship of their sites, over 100 sites. And they're in transition, as you know, some of you know very well, and their responsibilities for long-term stewardship for these more complex sites, you know, will be growing in the future. So they're experience and their expertise, you know, there's a fair amount right now, but a lot more will be growing in the future. So this is a benefit to our few sites kind of going in with that pool, we feel. I'd like to mention that we're just beginning our talks with DOE, as I mentioned. Of course, in the transition with the administration and some of their people that have been in leadership positions, there'll be a changeover. And so more background and negotiations, you know, are planned, you know, over the next few weeks and we'll probably have a better idea of where we're headed in the next few weeks. But the Commission has asked us to give a status report next October, you know, of our -- of how we've progressed, unless, you know, there's something to report on sooner than that. So today is more of letting you know that we're starting this effort, and where we're headed in general, and we'll keep you informed of the status along the way. What I also wanted to mention is that we're keeping our stakeholders and licensees informed, also. In the November workshop on decommissioning with industry and other stakeholders I gave about the same talk to them, letting them know of the issue and how we're proceeding, and invited any feedback from them at that time. And we plan on keeping them informed, as there are important -- as important progress comes up. If we have an agreement in principle or if we have a draft MOU, we'll be involving those stakeholders appropriately. So that's an important part of our step. So in conclusion, this is an important issue for us. We wanted to keep you informed about starting work in this area. And while it's very important for us and we've made that case to you I think this morning, you now, we welcome your feedback, but it really depends on how much, you know, you want to be involved with this issue. But at least I think we should keep you informed because it is important to the success of the whole part of the Decommissioning Program, that is, the part that relates to potential restricted release sites. Any questions? DR. WYMER: Thank you very much. I had a couple of comments and then a question. One is, this problem divides itself pretty cleanly into two parts. There's the institutional controls part, which is sort of the legalistic part, the who owns it and who's responsible for it and financial assurance. And then there's the other part, which is the technical part, which how in the world do you keep this stuff where you want it, which is really the issue that relates to health and safety. How do you keep the material from getting out and affecting people? On the technical side -- the first side is much more difficult, the financial assurance side and the guarantees and that sort of thing. That's a thorny issue. The technical side, just to throw out some thoughts with respect to what might be required on the part of NRC on a development or research program, the areas that emerge pretty cleanly are hydrology and early nuclide transport. There needs to be a lot understood about what the water does and what the radio isotopes do when they move. There's some work going on in the research program on the retention of radio nuclides. And then a second R&D point is monitoring. You mentioned monitoring and that's extremely important, and it's particularly difficult because it has to be done over such a long period of time. So the instrumentation has to be durable, has to be maintained. So there's a major monitoring activity, which is a technical problem. And a third area is the one of engineered barriers where if you want to gain assurance that you're going to -- or reasonable assurance that you're going to keep the material contained, then you probably, often you will not be able to rely on just what is naturally in the environment, what the setting is, the natural setting is. And there have to be some sort of engineered barriers like chemically reactive screens that are put into the ground, absorbents of various kinds, or other kinds of materials that can sequester these materials. One of DOE's favored approaches, as I mentioned to you before the meeting is a pump and treat approach, which is not a long-term answer. You can't keep pumps running very well for hundreds of years, and you can't keep treatment plants running for hundreds of years reliably without a lot more assurance than it's likely that will be available. So the third point is engineered barriers from the technological point of view. That's my speech. Now, I had a question. You talk about uranium and thorium sites, but it seems to me that, you know, you got 104 reactors sitting out there, some of which will have probably institutional controls over those sites. So I don't think that this business of going to green field, while it's a goal of all the utilities, they'd love to all go to green field, that's their stated goal, it may well not be possible in all cases to get to green field, and there'll be restricted release sites. I wondered why those weren't mentioned in what you were talking about. DR. JOHNSON: I'll attempt to answer part of the question, but maybe some of the other staff might support me. As currently, as I've been told, reactor sites right now aren't proposing restricted release, although -- DR. WYMER: I know they're not proposing it. DR. JOHNSON: -- they're certainly -- I mean, we're saying this certainly could be an issue in the future, and I don't know if Larry or others might want to further elaborate on that. But that certainly is a possibility in the future. MR. GREEVES: It's not a plan. DR. JOHNSON: It's not a -- MR. GREEVES: The reactors are all telling us that, you know, they're going to clean up to our criteria. John Greeves, for the record. And Larry, just jump in here, but -- MR. CAMPER: Yes. No, I would -- John, simply I would only add to that. I mean, we have no indications at this point that any of the rector facilities would be pursuing a restricted release scenario. In fact, what we're finding is for reactor sites, as compared to some of the processing sites like Robert's referring to, I mean, the reactor sites are pristine by comparison. I mean, they're able in their unrestricted release scenario, in fact, to demonstrate DCGLs and clean-up methodologies that can come down to a few millirem, I mean, a few millirem. So probably, the most complicated thing that I might foresee in some reactor sites would be the potential for groundwater problems. You know, the reactors have a rent program which is designed to monitor off-site biota and water and what have you, but we're finding that there's more of a need for on- site groundwater monitoring. And there might be a few sites where there's a groundwater issue, but by and large, at least at this stage of the game, there's not an indication that the reactor sites are going to need to or want to pursue a restricted release scenario. DR. WYMER: This sort of goes back to one of the presentations we had yesterday on entombment. And there were some indications that there might be some possibility for restricted release -- during that discussion -- at reactor sites. So I certainly agree it would be highly desirable to go to unrestricted release, green field, for the reactor sites, but I don't know. MR. CAMPER: Well, of course, the fundamental difference there in the entombment approach is the degree of clean-up that takes place as compared to pursuing an unrestricted release. You know, under entombment, of course, the idea is to do some clean-up and ultimately come down to the question of what to do about greater than Class C waste under entombment -- DR. WYMER: Yes, that's right. MR. CAMPER: -- is it in or is it out. That's a big deal. DR. WYMER: It is a big deal. MR. CAMPER: So the question is, you're letting this scenario -- you're entombing it. You're letting it cool off as a mechanism of decommissioning, as opposed to -- DR. WYMER: Yes. MR. CAMPER: -- pursuing a rather extensive clean-up. DR. WYMER: Yes. MR. CAMPER: And of course, unrestricted release. So fundamental difference there, as you appreciate, I'm sure. But again, the problem that we see for the restricted release scenario and the sites that are, you know, unrestricted release, or the complicated materials -- DR. WYMER: Yes. MR. CAMPER: -- and their processing sites, and there's extensive contamination in many cases. That's not the case for the reactor sites. DR. WYMER: No. No, I -- MR. CAMPER: Which of course, is a good thing. DR. WYMER: Yes. Okay. Well, I just wondered why it wasn't even mentioned that it was -- MR. CAMPER: Yes, right. It was a good question. MR. GREEVES: Let me just add, if I could, we're prepared to deal with both, and you got a briefing, apparently, yesterday on entombment. DR. WYMER: Yes, we did. MR. GREEVES: So that would be the vehicle that we could use, per chance, somebody in future years came forward with that approach. The industry's interested enough to have asked us to look seriously into the entombment topic, but that would be subject to -- you know -- advance notice of rule-making, and I'm sure we'll get plenty of comments on it. So I think that's something we'll be back talking to you about and you'll get a lot of visibility of. DR. WYMER: Well, it was just -- of course, it's certainly an observation about the reactors. I understood that the plan was in fact to go to green field. MR. GREEVES: NEI's in the audience if you want to hear from them. That's up to you. DR. WYMER: Well, if you've got a few comments, Paul, you might want to kick them in. MR. GENOA: Yes. Thank you. Good morning. Paul Genoa, with NEI. And in fact, your point is well-taken. We have every belief that virtually all the operating reactor sites in the early decommissioning sites can be released under the current unrestricted release scenario. But we are looking to the future and the future is not, you know, completely certain. Low- level waste disposal has been unavailable to certain generators in the past, and we view in the future it's possible again. We would ask that the entombment option be explored so that we know that there is a safe way to decommission a power reactor, even in the absence of available low-level waste disposal. So we're looking at it from a contingency point of view. DR. WYMER: Oh. MR. GENOA: And we certainly believe in a performance-based rule, if that's possible. The only thing I would add is there are situations. I mean, we do have the -- you know -- the failed TMI facility. It's possible that that might be a restricted release, entombed facility at some point. It may make more sense to deal with it in place, in situ, as you pointed out yesterday, as opposed to moving it somewhere else. That's just an example. It has not been proposed by the company, but I use it for illustrative purposes. DR. WYMER: Right. CHAIRMAN GARRICK: While you're here I wanted to ask, many of the sites, the reactor sites have on site low-level waste burial facilities. MR. GENOA: A few have had very low licensed material at very low concentrations disposed of on site. That's true. CHAIRMAN GARRICK: Yes. Is it your expectation that those would -- those sites would be removed or -- MR. GENOA: Not necessarily. The criteria that's been used under the 2002 and the old 20.302, alternate disposal requests, were always in the range of a few millirem. DR. WYMER: A few millirem. MR. GENOA: That I know of. And of course, the requirements are that we go back and reevaluate those at license termination, and that the dose components of any of those on site disposals must be factored into the equation of the residual activity and the dose consequences to the public. So those would be considered under license termination. And our view is that all that I know of would, either unremediated or remediated, meet the unrestricted release criteria. CHAIRMAN GARRICK: There is a couple of cases of tritium contamination as -- would you say the same applies there? MR. GENOA: I don't -- CHAIRMAN GARRICK: We mentioned TMI. We know that there's some tritium contamination. MR. GENOA: Yes. That facility I think is on a more complicated site and is not characteristic of the other sites. I'm not aware of any of the other sites that have groundwater contamination exceeding drinking water standards. And you know, I'm not sure. CHAIRMAN GARRICK: Okay. DR. WYMER: Thank you, Paul. It's always good to have the industry perspective. With respect to trying to guess what's going to happen in the future, Nils Bohrs, quoted a note, said: "Predictions that are very uncertain, especially about the future." (Laughter) MR. GENOA: I find that to be the case. DR. WYMER: Are there anymore questions of Paul? DR. LEVENSON: I have I guess two comments. One, I'm sort of intrigued by your position that states are unwilling to accept responsibility and authority. In the part of the world where I spend a few days a month that I'm not concerned with ACNW I've been involved with a fair number of things at the state, county, city and all the way down to local school boards where the federal government has mandated unfunded responsibilities and liabilities. And this seems to be a unique position of the federal government, that they don't have the ability to mandate that. I wish that could be extended to other parts of the government. It really is -- you really are taking a unique consideration. (Laughter) The other comment I want to make is somewhat in the same line as Ray's about the business of, we need to know more about retention and hydrology, because if we accept what we know now in the current modeling there would not be a single ore body anybody -- anywhere in the world that our current assumptions about how rapidly things move through nature clearly is not sustained by what happens in the real world. So it's kind of a plea to direct our research and our thinking that we can -- in the near term we can make overestimates of things and then say, well, we'll do this. For the very long term where we're not going to be doing things, it's very important that was have a more basic understanding of what is real, not what is computed. DR. WYMER: All right. George? John? CHAIRMAN GARRICK: I wanted to pick up on this option in the rule of the -- what I'll call the walk away option with a 100 MR and the 500 MR caps. What other provisions are there, other than dose, for removing institutional controls? DR. JOHNSON: For removing institutional controls? CHAIRMAN GARRICK: Well, the one option is -- the conditions under which you can essentially walk away from the site. DR. JOHNSON: If I understand your question, I think the license would be terminated. CHAIRMAN GARRICK: Yes. DR. JOHNSON: If you have one of those -- well, either you demonstrate 20 -- you don't exceed 25 millirem. CHAIRMAN GARRICK: Right. DR. JOHNSON: And assuming institutional controls fail, you either are not exceeding 100 or not exceeding 500 -- CHAIRMAN GARRICK: So the failure of the institutional controls is not the same as eliminating the institutional controls. DR. JOHNSON: No. It's a calculation again, you know, of what if, you know, we know they're fragile. We know they may not last. So calculate what the dose would be, assuming they fail. And then that's intended to limit the consequence, should they fail, to either the public dose on that or in very special cases, the 500 millirem. And I listed all those requirements, you know. It's a stringent set of requirements that would have to be met, you know, if you had a situation under the 500 millirem cap situation. CHAIRMAN GARRICK: You talked a little bit about experience and the DOE has already had quite a bit of experience in institutional control. Also, hasn't EPA had a considerable amount of experience with institutional control of nonradioactive sites, but with hazardous sites? DR. JOHNSON: Exactly. CHAIRMAN GARRICK: And has that had any bearing on any of your approaches? DR. JOHNSON: I think it's -- like I said, this is early in our getting involved, but you know, recently I attended a conference and EPA gave a presentation of where they are. And they summarized, saying they have over 600 sites that are currently in the five-year recheck or their institutional control time phase, and around 3,000 separate institutional controls at those 600 some sites. So yes, they do have a lot of experience. You know, we haven't yet kind of aggressively looked at what things might pertain to our particular sites. However, some of our staff, you know, have been involved with, you know, looking at their guidance and looking at, you know, their past experience, and this may be useful. CHAIRMAN GARRICK: Yes. This sounds like a classical case for risk harmonization as far as an opportunity for it. Are there any genuine gestures, given that we're now looking at institutional controls for nuclear sites for looking at the more broader issue of consistent regulation of hazardous sites in general? Are there some over-arching requirements that are evolving? DR. JOHNSON: I guess I can say I'm only aware of the one study that recently was done by an S- Core (phonetic) subcommittee to compare -- CHAIRMAN GARRICK: Yes. DR. JOHNSON: -- the requirements and guidance among DOE, NRC and EPA, and I think that was recently published. John, do you have any -- MR. GREEVES: Yes. John Greeves again. We're at what I would describe the front end of this process in terms of our regulation, but there are a number of paradigms out there in terms of institutional control. You're going to hear from Dr. Leschine shortly, and I'm sure he looked into some of these. But there are the CERCLA approach. That's under a piece of -- it's a different piece of legislation, and I think we do need to go to school as to what has EPA done with those 600 sites. But it's a different paradigm. They don't require, to my knowledge, federal or state control. They do require the five-year rechecks. And you know, 600 cases, that's a lot of experience. So I think, Larry, that's something we really should go to school on. We've worked with EPA. They're part of the Interagency Steering Committee on Radiation Standards. What we have done is looked at the various regulations that are on the book, and evaluate how institutional controls is effected for each of those. And we've gone to international meetings and made those presentations, mostly comparing what the differences are. It is very hard to harmonize between legislation. You have one set of legislation that controls the CERCLA sites. Another paradigm is the DOE paradigm. They're automatically responsible for their sites. They provide institutional control for those "100 sites" that are out there. A third paradigm is Part 40, our regulation which is really a commercial site that by legislation turns over to the Department of Energy at a certain point in time. So that's a third paradigm. The fourth paradigm is the one we're dealing with, which is a commercial site that is not required for the Department of Energy to pick it up. It is discretionary. So this is kind of a web that I expect we're going to be talking to you about for the next year or two, and sorting out over time. We need to do more homework on what EPA is doing, because they may have some techniques that would be quite valuable to us. So Larry, you want to add? MR. CAMPER: Yes, let me add to that. I mean, I think you did a great job of framing the paradigms, the possibilities. I mean, where we are as a staff right now is we have the license termination rule which went into effect in the '96-97 time frame. Arguably, the institutional control scenario called for in the LTR is a stringent standard. It really -- it requires very precise things in terms of durable institutional controls, financial shorts and what have you. We know that we have this population of 10 or 12 sites that appear to be headed that way. So we're trying to make sure that the institutional control as envisioned in that regulation can in fact be carried out. What we're finding out is that it's problematic. We're finding, for example, in one case a state -- I won't name the state; it's not important -- but a state that has some of these sites made it very clear there's simply no way they were going to step up and become this third party. Too much -- too many unanswered questions. The standards may change. The role of government may change. Politics is a factor. Why do I want to assume responsibility for this site as a state that I don't have right now. We don't mandate under our approach that they would do that. That is unusual, you're right, in some cases. We are finding -- we had one entity that came in and proposed a private enterprise scenario. They have subsequently withdrawn that. They're not going to pursue restricted release after all. They're going to go with unrestricted release, take everything off site. The problem with the business approach was you start to worry about continuity and stability of a business arrangement for 1,000 years. It raises a litany of questions that have to be answered. So it was going to be problematic. It was going to pose a lot of questions. I don't know if in the final analysis it would have been sustained or not. I doubt it, but it's possible. So we look at this and we say, okay, we have this criteria now. What is the most viable entity that -- whose paradigm is closest to ours that has the experience and infrastructure for managing these sites in perpetuity, if it comes to that, vested upon that entity? We also recognize and we've had some early discussions amongst ourselves that as we go down the road, let's say, for example, if we're not successful in working out an arrangement for an MOU with the Department of Energy, then we're going to really have to stop and come back and say, okay. Now, what have -- what is our experience to date on this institutional control scenario called for in our regulations? The DOE's scenario didn't work out. What do we do now? What do we do now? And one of the things we have in fact talked about, as John alluded to, is what other paradigms are out there? How do they work? Might it necessitate going back to the Commission and saying, we have this approach in our regulations. We now have some experience, some three, four, five years of experience. We have found the following. We believe we now need to do x or y. It could come to that and your point is along those lines. CHAIRMAN GARRICK: Yes. Yes. Well, there's always the question of, if we're being motivated here to protect the health and safety of the public, what contribution to the health and safety of the public are we making by focusing on the nuclear sites and somewhat isolating them in terms of how we perform things like institutional control? And you can't help but wonder if this isn't one-tenth of one fraction percent of the real problem here. And my real question, I guess, is -- and of course, the NRC can only do what the NRC Charters asks it to do. But I can't help but wonder if there isn't a much, much bigger question out there when you start talking about health and safety. And again, the public is being led to believe, because of all the attention we give to the nuclear sites, that this is the problem, when in fact it may not be. And I was just curious what -- and I appreciate John's comment -- I'm just curious about whether these other paradigms are having any attention given to them in that regard. I'm hopeful that somebody is trying to put this in some sort of global perspective. DR. JOHNSON: If I can just make an observation on that. Even though the topic may be -- the words were institutional controls you know -- DOE uses long-term stewardship. That's a broader -- it just gives you the feeling that there's more to it than that. And I think that certainly in our rule that's the same situation. It's just not deed restrictions, you know, we're talking about. It's maintaining the effectiveness of those engineered barriers over time. But the importance I think in our process is that the decommissioning plan needs to look at not only the engineered barriers that should be proposed, but how they should -- how monitoring needs to be designed and how the effectiveness of those engineered barriers over time, you know, need to be monitored and maintained, you know. So it's the broader picture and putting that whole picture together in the decommissioning plan to make sure that the designs for the engineered barriers, the designs for the monitoring, designs for the five-year rechecks are all done together, you know, with the thought in mind up front to possibly keep in mind that part of the engineered system is to -- is that it has to maintain its effectiveness over the time period. So I mean, that's one good thing about doing the planning all up front. CHAIRMAN GARRICK: Yes. DR. WYMER: You got any questions with the staff here? MR. LARSON: I thought the 500 millirem requires a Commission decision that that's an acceptable release, the release site. Isn't that what the license termination rule requires? Don't they have to make a decision of 500 or more? I'm just looking at some of the -- MR. GREEVES: They have to consult with the EPA. MR. LARSON: All right. I can't -- MR. GREEVES: I don't -- you know -- the regulation is what the regulation is. MR. LARSON: Okay. MR. CAMPER: I do want to -- you know, Howard, I want to point out -- again, this is for Dr. Garrick and Dr. Wymer, too. I want to make three comments here. It gets back to the comments that Dr. Wymer made about the question of hydrology and engineered barriers. And under the institutional control or the strict release scenario bear in mind again that the licensee has to demonstrate through its hydrologic analysis, through its modeling -- and we have taken steps recently to try to make the modeling approaches more realistic in bringing more probability to bear. We've been constantly refining the codes that we use. But the licensee has to demonstrate that that site is at 25 millirem under the scenario that it intends to leave it there, and that if those institutional controls fail, if they fail, it's 100. It's the safety cap of the 100 and 500 under certain circumstances. So and our staff, of course, looks very closely at the proposed engineered barriers, the hydrology analyses that are provided, the dose modeling that's provided and so forth and so on, to insure that the engineered barriers and all the parameters the licensee is proposing for leaving that site under restricted release will in fact insure the 25 millirem layer is met. With regards to your point, Howard, I know there's consultation that's required with the Commission approval. MR. LARSON: Okay. MR. CAMPER: I have to really go back and look closely at that. MR. LARSON: And but as far as agreement states are concerned. MR. CAMPER: Come again? MR. LARSON: As far as agreement states are concerned, if an agreement state decided that a privately-owned facility was okay, I mean, that the land and disposal? MR. CAMPER: Yeah. I mean, you know, the rule was in light of compatibility -- MR. LARSON: Right, that's true. Right. MR. CAMPER: The rule was in light of compatibility, of course, in the agreement states. Now, they had the normal three years to implement the rule. We have been pulsing them recently, a number of meetings like the origination agreement states, and CRCPD as to what the states are doing. We're finding, of course, that they're still early in the game, as well. But yes, I mean, they could entertain a private scenario situation, just as we could. Whether they would find it acceptable or not, I just don't know. MR. LARSON: Well, would we comment if they proposed that in light of our own belief that it should be a federal, state or local -- MR. CAMPER: Well, but again remember, we would entertain, we would -- MR. LARSON: Okay. MR. CAMPER: -- when MOLYCORP, that proposed a private scenario, came in -- it was subsequently withdrawn -- we were going to evaluate that proposal. And it doesn't have to be a governmental entity. It's preferable because of the longer term -- the envisioned longer term stability of a government as opposed to a private enterprise scenario. But a private enterprise scenario is not ruled out for consideration -- MR. LARSON: But we had a proposed rule- making for private enterprise and we withdrew it. MR. CAMPER: Well -- MR. LARSON: Seven or eight years ago. MR. CAMPER: Yes, but we -- under the LTR, we've not yet taken one all the way under the LTR, under the license termination rule. DR. WYMER: Any other comments, observations? (No Response) DR. WYMER: If not, well, thanks. It's good to get this very early in front of briefing on this because I think it'll become a hot topic as time wears on. So we'll look forward to having continuing input from the staff here on this. MR. CAMPER: Thank you. And we suspect we'll come back to you and talk more about this again as we work our way through it. DR. WYMER: We would anticipate that, yes. MR. CAMPER: There's going to be a lot of lessons learned, and we'll be back to you. DR. WYMER: Now, before we turn to the next presentation I'd like to make a little personal aside here. We have two representatives of the National Academy of Sciences here, Tom Leschine, whom you'll hear from in a few minutes. Oh, three. And the senior staffer who was the responsible Academy staffer on this committee that turned out the report on institutional management, Bob Andrews, who will soon be in that enviable state of grace known as retirement. MR. ANDREWS: Like you are. DR. WYMER: Yes, like I am. And of course, the ever popular Bob Budnitz, who are all sitting over here. So okay. I wanted to get the little personal things out of the way here. So now, let's go ahead and hear from Tom about the Academy Report. CHAIRMAN GARRICK: He's ready to go and plug it right in for you. (Pause) DR. LESCHINE: Okay. CHAIRMAN GARRICK: While we're getting set up here it's important to point out here that not only do we have with us today the Chairman, Tom Leschine of the current form of the Committee, but we have the last Chairman, Bob Budnitz. So we have a lot of experience and continuity here, that of course, as Ray said, we have the staff member that has been through this for many years. So we welcome you all here. (Pause) DR. WYMER: While we're waiting for our high technology stuff to kick in here, let me go ahead and introduce Dr. Tom Leschine, who was the Chair of quite a long-running Committee that produced this report on institutional management. And subsequent to the publication of the report has been subjected to numerous inquiries by the press and various organizations and has had to commit himself to many statements that he probably would have rather not made. (Laughter) DR. LESCHINE: Yes, I could tell some stories. DR. WYMER: But anyway, it was a long, drawn out process and many facets of the problem were considered and they -- what I think was a very creditable report was turned out by the Academy. DR. LESCHINE: This is it. I don't know if you got copies. I saw something in e-mail. MR. CAMPER: Yes, we all got copies. DR. LESCHINE: Okay. DR. WYMER: The Academy was kind enough to present it to all members. DR. LESCHINE: I'm not sure what you really want me to do here. So I have kind of too many pictures and I could, you know, spend a lot of time walking through a lot of conceptual ideas that we developed. I think you should hear some of that. And as I was listening to the last session, I guess the things that I might not have emphasized too much that are, in fact, at the -- kind of at the end of the talk are our findings and recommendations and, you know, what are some of the issues within. The issues are sprinkled throughout my talk and then we come down to maybe what really just reinforces them. So what's your pleasure? You like dialogue? How should I -- DR. WYMER: I think the conclusions and recommendations are a key part of what you're going to give us, but let's hear the whole story. DR. LESCHINE: Okay. DR. WYMER: Especially some of the concerns about the durability of institutional controls; I think, Tom, some of our -- the Committee's concerns about just how long can you rely on various institutions. DR. LESCHINE: Yes. Just in what I heard in the few minutes that I was listening in on the last session, I'll try to talk about some of those issues. These are not technical difficulties. We need a different term. These are just technical -- DR. WYMER: Glitches. DR. LESCHINE: No, they're -- see, we need a positive of, just what you have to do. It's the price you pay. DR. WYMER: Well, you've got three minutes before your scheduled, anyway. DR. LESCHINE: It's a type of Faustian bargain, maybe, the one with technology, as opposed to the one we quoted here from Alvin Weinberg. MR. ANDREWS: Ray, if I may, you might introduce Tom in terms of being a professor of marine policy at the University of Washington. And this was a very unusual study for me at the Academy, since we had a blend of physical scientists and social scientists. And we found that communication between these two groups is very difficult. DR. WYMER: I was going to question your word "blend." MR. ANDREWS: Each side accused the other of being ambiguous, muddle-headed and everything else. But it made for a very interesting study and it's -- this is not just a science and technology issue, as we found. We have to deal with people, as well. DR. LESCHINE: Yes. We discovered if you take a long time, longer than the Academy would like, and especially the sponsor, and you spend all your money and more, you can really get the two groups on the Committee to come together, and the social and natural science technology and human dimensions, really, to come together in what I think is a very coherent report that does this better than I've seen it happen before. So I hope you'll see that reflected in what I'll talk about. How we doing? CHAIRMAN GARRICK: Go ahead and open it. (Pause to set up computer) CHAIRMAN GARRICK: Are we ready to go on the record? DR. WYMER: Looks like it. DR. LESCHINE: Okay. We're set. CHAIRMAN GARRICK: All right. DR. LESCHINE: Maybe I should sit down. Well, I'll be in your way. I'll walk. I'll stand up. It's a pleasure to be here. I am not so familiar with the issues of commercial nuclear power plants, but I recognize that in the broad outlines many of the questions are the same. And, you know, I already picked up in this short time that I sat here this interesting question, which is one that we've had to deal with in our study at the National Research Council, as well. And that's when the commercial sector comes into things, because even though, you know, we look at nuclear power as a kind of commercial technology and we think of DOE sites as quite the opposite, we've got all kinds of ideas like re- industrialization around the fringes of the DOE sites that mean that, in fact, it's possible that commercial interests will be the ones doing long-term stewardship at some of those sites, as well. So there's an interesting nexus here between those two. Well, I already told you some of the dilemma, but I will, you know, try to march smartly through some ideas to make sure that you understand the conceptual foundations of this study, because it was very important to our thinking about really there being a couple of fundamental issues that we think are pretty insoluble at the moment that I heard echoed in the brief discussion beforehand, as well. And I'll tell you in advance what they are: that science and technology is really wanting, and yes, we need those models to tell us where contaminants are going to go and what long-term contaminant concentrations are going to be, because that's the basis of our institutional control design, and those models are not really up to par that we have to rely on. And the second problem is the social and human dimension. It's one thing to say we'll have institutional controls. It's another thing to guarantee that they will be in place, and I think that's going to become a very big issue. So this is the Committee and you already heard that we're very pleased to have our former Chair, Bob Budnitz, because this Committee, unlike most National Research Council Committees, was set up actually as Standing Committee, and we did five or six different reports. I should mention that Bob Andrews, our retiring Staff Officer -- well, we did quite a few on this Committee. We did a report on the Hanford tanks that I think was very prescient where we saw nothing but trouble in the privatization initiative that DOE was undertaking, but nobody listened to us. So and we did a very nice study that Ray was really involved in on the Niagara Falls storage sight. So these were all in the history of this Committee when Bob Budnitz was the chair. I took on the chairmanship after him, and the Committee left as a Standing Committee, I guess I'm presiding over the end of now, but that's how things go. But that's another comment on our -- the world we live in with institutional longevity. So the Committee members are here, just to make the point that there was an interesting balance, very strong representation on both the natural and the social sciences on this Committee, much more-so than in my experience with other National Research Council Committees. And by the way, way down at the bottom we have the redoubtable Bob Bernero, who was our consultant. And so I didn't have to know anything about regulations, because he knew everything that there was to know about regulations. Our charge is worth considering because we thought we were the masters of our own destiny and Chairman Budnitz very astutely was negotiating what this standing committee would do next as he left the scene. And we actually wrote the original charge and proposed it to DOE, but it went through the mill of the Academy and DOE repeatedly, and to Al Lamb's office and to Tom Grumley and back again. And by the time it came back to us it ended up with a rather odd, you know, assess approaches for developing the criteria, don't just develop the criteria. Don't state what the approaches are, assess the -- it was a little confusing. But it made us realize that what we needed to do was to start from a conceptual place. In other words, think of this as a conceptual problem and don't just rush into -- tempting though it might be, let's look at all the institutional controls that EPA has imposed, because there's a wealth of experience there, and let's go down the road that way. So we spent a fair amount of time looking at the end of this statement in trying to come up with a conceptual model for long-term stewardship planning, if you will, that would encompass all the things in the charter as we were given it, so that at the end we could say something about appropriate criteria. That's how we approach this job. So what we gave back as an answer is a report on stewardship that avoids using this word "stewardship" that has become very current in DOE. We call it long-term institutional management. It's somewhat of a redundant term, in fact. But we've -- because management is by definition an institutional enterprise, right? But our purpose was to really underscore the importance of institutional reliability in the management that occurs. And as you can see from this list of -- you know, these characteristics are very general -- that we're thinking in a broad, systematic, integrative, iterative way. And you can see in this our conclusion that only this kind of approach, really, do we think will work. And in fact, if you knew the work of this Committee, I think the consistent theme in all our work, Bob, was that every study really said, you've got to look at things in a big, broad, integrative way. We can't look at these K-65 wastes at Niagara Falls and not think about what we're doing at Fernald because we've got a very similar situation there. And we were always trying to fight against I guess what is sometimes called stove-piping in the Department of Energy, where problems tend to get single processed without much learning across the boundaries. So we think this is a situation where learning is really going to be at a premium, and that's why we went in that direction. Let me -- we have a number of side bars in here and this is my favorite. It came out of a master's thesis of a student at the School of Marine Affairs where we do nothing nuclear, except Ann Ballou was very interested in what happened to all those Pacific islands and all those marine resources where all the atomic testing took place, and she wrote her master's thesis on that. There's a very interesting, I'll call it a moral tale, in Bikini, because if you know the story, we did a lot of testing there and Bikini was resettled probably a little bit before it should have been resettled. And in fact, the old Atomic Energy Commission resisted the resettlement of Bikini, but the natives went back anyway. This is a story from the New York Times, which is very recent, and it is literally true. And what is interesting about Bikini is all the mistakes you can make, and I think are still very vulnerable to, were made then. We did let 167 people resettle the island of Bikini, but on an understanding that turned out to be erroneous in two ways. The first point was that modeling was done to determine what kind of doses people resettling the island would receive under various scenarios, and the modeling was in error. The modeling was based on terrestrial soils, continental soils, not islands in the Pacific. And the relative lack of potassium in the real soils meant that cesium, which covered the place basically, was readily available for uptake by coconut palms. Okay. So we sort of understood the mechanism, but not the degree to which that was really going to occur. And we told the Bikini Islanders, you can go back, and we shook our fingers at them and said, but don't eat the coconuts. But they did, okay, and they did because this is everything to their life. It's the symbolic connection to their homeland. It's the most important food. These are Marshall Islanders. These people in the Pacific eat coconuts. So they did eat the coconuts and they did very quickly develop these body burns. This was an early attempt at risk communication before there was even the term, right? So we got it all wrong. We just told people once who didn't even understand what the real risks were, what -- how they should control their behavior. We didn't really monitor. But then we did something right. We also had medical monitoring. Every single person that went back was required to take a physical exam every year, and it was this medical monitoring that picked up the signal, okay. So another kind of lesson comes out of that, a sort of wrong scientific model, an inappropriate control message, but a system of control, of management, if you will, that had this component of layering in it, redundancy, right? Medical monitoring was an additional measure put on top of the idea, don't eat the coconuts and rely on foodstuff from off island, okay. Now, you know, easy to look back and draw a lesson on something like that, but that's a difficult thing to do and this is one of the institutional challenges. You know, what you're gong to be asked to do is to assure that the institutional controls put in place will be effective. What's that medical monitoring doing? Is that sort of betraying that there's doubt about the -- you know -- there's this difficulty that we might call political that will be faced by people that try to do these kinds of things and it's something to really take into account. So we took out of this the idea that we shouldn't talk about stewardship. We should talk about something that is a different term that we kind of invent in the report. And here's our problems with stewardship. So what I want to do for a few minutes is talk to you about this word that's just all over the place in the Department of Energy right now, long-term stewardship, already been reduced to an acronym, LTS. Okay. Well, there's a lot of problems with it. The activities, institutional controls do not equal long-term stewardship. Stewardship is a management function. Institutional controls are a set of measures that are part of that system; essential distinction. And also, this idea that stewardship is a nice-sounding word and it becomes all things to all people, and that can be its undoing. So in fact, I went to -- DOE has a brand new website, energy.gov, and they have -- oops. What did I do. More technical problems. The Department of Energy website has a stewardship category. And I was two minds about this. What else is there -- in back of mine? Okay. Here we go. Okay. On the one hand -- you hear me fine? Okay. Well, on the one hand I like the idea that stewardship is getting very prominent play. On the other hand, applying it to all these very disparate activities, will the real essence, the gem of what I think needs to occur really be maintained when stewardship applies to everything? And by the way, what's missing here? Stockpile stewardship. It's another term they use, right? That's their word, and it's not even on this list. And if you saw the newspapers or maybe the report, they're really being blasted for their, you know, failed stockpile stewardship, according to the GAO or somebody. So you need to think about this term and recognize -- this is something I made up -- this is an old, old term that has a lot of meanings, and not the meanings that we're now investing in it. I would argue that real stewardship is out here. I don't know if you're familiar with Aldo Leopold, but kind of the birth of the model environmental movement in these very lyrical essays he wrote, "The Sand County Almanac." He coined the term "land ethic," you know. And between that and Gifford Pinchot's conservation management, I'll spare you the details on his school of natural resources, this is the difference between Bruce Babbett and Gail Norton, okay? This is a huge -- (Laughter) DR. LESCHINE: -- this is a huge ideological divide about what you do with forest lands and whether the purpose of why stewardship is productive use of environments versus leaving them alone, right. The wilderness concept versus the well- managed forest that produces timber, fish, wildlife, et cetera. And I would argue that reuse and re- industrialization, DOE terms on what we're going to do with surplus sites and facilities are, you know, moving along further still. And protection from harm, DOE's idea, is really way over there, especially by comparison to this, okay? So you have a term which has a lot of different meanings to different people. And I'm a professor of public policy, and let me just say that when you're in that kind of situation you tend to get a lot of conflict because people have different ideas about what they think should go on. So EM, you know, Department of Energy has this kind of institutional controls, and stewardship after remediation is pretty much the concept. And yet, part of what we're saying in the report is that stewardship has to be part of remediation, has to be part of remediation planning, in fact, has to be part of construction of waste management facilities and maybe in your world, reactors in the first place. You build the reactor with the thought of how you're going to decommission it. Maybe the commercial nuclear power world does better at that then we did in the DOE world. But you know, hey, taking those kinds of considerations into account right at the beginning so that you have a continuum between operations and decommissioning, and then dealing with the wastes is essential. Here now are some of what our report said, and we said that, you know, it's basically echoing what I'm already saying, stewardship has to be a pervasive concept and waste management -- today's waste management has to become part of tomorrow's stewardship planning. So I just want to point out, the Department of Energy has itself changed its story quite a bit, and this is what Hazel O'Leary was saying. She was giving -- she was using the term "stewardship" about this report, called "Stewards of a National Resource." This was right at the point where we were starting to talk about deaccessioning a lot of surplused lands and facilities, and noticed that it's a very Aldo Leopold like concept, and it's only under Secretary Antune (phonetic) that stewardship has become associated with this idea of long-term care and so forth. So this doesn't come through very well. It's in the report. This is the Alan Croft diagram. DR. WYMER: Yes. DR. LESCHINE: This is our model for long- term stewardship, our conceptual model. This diagram appears in the report. We adopted the idea of a three-legged stool. I think it was, well, came out of a Committee meeting where the idea is that you have stewardship activities on one leg, okay. And I'll talk about what those activities are. They include but are not limited to institutional controls. You have contaminant isolation on another leg. You have contaminant reduction on the third leg. It's a package. It's three things. They form the configuration of a stool. They support an end state. I'm looking at John Garrick as I say that because he's been the crusader constantly for the idea that you can't do management and clean-up at DOE sites and not have an end state in mind. It's very important that you have one, even though it might change, but that's the nature of things. And the idea here of the rungs is that this is an iterative process. We're not going to get there in a day. There's a guy -- you know -- Milton Russell's talking about rolling stewardship, the idea that you put a set of controls in place today and you keep those controls going into the distant future, but you keep revisiting them, keep changing them, you don't expect to be able to -- you don't expect to put anything in place for 1,000 years. You expect to put something in place and start revisiting it right away and see how it's working and make adjustments as appropriate. But maybe those adjustments are more clean-up in the future, because you realize you can't really sustain the system you're trying to retrain, and you've got to get rid of the waste or build a better cap or deal with the fact that the cap is failing or will fail, and take other measures. So there's also a lot of terminology that relates to the fact that these decisions that are made at every stage, we call them contextual factors, they're represented on the rungs, is costs and risks and life-cycle analysis and all kinds of things, political factors, what stakeholders want, community aspirations. All that stuff in the case of a DOE site is really going to figure big time. In fact, any federal facility, I would argue, because the federal government has taken this notion that, you know, we don't take -- withdraw lands and facilities and hold them forever. We've got the idea that they go back to the people at some point. So there's this -- and also this notion of perpetual responsibility for any hazard we create. So you've got an interesting kind of a problem. It's really built into our notion of governance in this country, and that is the federal government on the one hand has the duty to return things to the people, return things to productive use in the economy. On the other hand, it has this responsibility for perpetual care of the problems that the federal government has created. So if you're thinking that way about nuclear power plants, you see the same kind of dilemma in a way, but it's certainly built into the DOE world. So the tools, I've kind of mentioned this already. But I guess my real point here is to focus on the stewardship measures and the fact that institutional controls, which are use and access restrictions, basically, that's the primary tool and that's where EPA always goes in these CERCLA-type cleanups. That's really only one part of the story of stewardship from our perspective, and the rest of the story is all of these things which -- I guess the point I want to make here now is that this list is kind of organized on a continuum -- it's discussed in the report -- that goes from sort of the familiar and the accepted to things that we think are necessary, but not considered by most people, and certainly not by DOE as part of what they're up to. So yes, institutional controls, monitoring, surveillance, oversight and enforcement, we talk about that all the time, and yes, we're talking about the necessity of maintaining information and very good records on contamination. This is a very essential feature of anything you're going to hand off to the future. But then we get into things that it's not so clear anybody's committed to do. Is the Department of Energy really committed to periodic reevaluation of the whole site protective system? What I know about that is that DOE is looking very carefully at its legal responsibilities. It's not clear the extent to which they or anybody else is required to do this. We'll probably see some congressional action, I would think, that takes on this question of clarifying responsibility for the waste, but there's not necessarily responsibility for the situation in which the waste is left. And then we would argue more radically still, you've really got to keep looking at technical options. You can't say the problem you couldn't fix in 1990 is one that you don't have to fix in 2020, or ever, because you didn't have the technology then. So we think that it's important not only to be passive here, but really force the R&D. So if the Department of Energy, you know, they have this new technology program emerging at the Idaho site, INEEL, and I would guess and hope that that's sort of the orientation. Some people are a little bit skeptical, but that's the idea, that they should be pushing towards what we'll call stewardship technologies, which are remediation technologies at large, let's say. So to talk about the R&D a bit, you have to have it. Your technical capabilities are deficient. We don't understand sites and residual contaminants very well, and I want to show you some -- I'll stop showing you lists and show you some pictures in a minute. But there's two issues here. We don't really have as much knowledge as we should about the bio-geophysical character of sites. Surprisingly, we don't know much about the subsurface where all the wastes are, especially, and in some cases even the contaminants themselves. Not that we don't understand radio nuclides, but radio nuclides in the complex site environments can sometimes be a problem. And then, you know, and this is very much consistent with the spirit of this report, we extend that list right into the demographic and social dimensions. In fact, what we're saying is we do have to understand. We went to the Nevada test site and started asking questions about what if Las Vegas needs water? Well, you know, they'll find water up north, not a problem. This is the fastest growing city in the country. Is it really not a problem that there's a lot of contaminated drinking water 100 miles north of Las Vegas, the fastest growing city in the country in a desert, and the biggest user of water on a per capita basis by far of any city in the country, and this bugaboo of how well institutions really can perform. We just want to kind of assure people we will perform and not really look at what adds up to effective performance. So the science and technology issues, then, really relate to understanding long-term risks and conceptual modeling. And I think I reversed the order of these two things; I did. I want to talk about this because this is the undercurrent of this whole -- what I heard you talking about, you know, how do you assure that an institutional control is going to achieve a numerical standard, whatever that -- 25 millirem or 15 millirem, like we're using at Hanford for the clean-up of soils along the Columbia River. The fact is, we are finding surprise after surprise in that the contaminants that are released into the environment are not behaving as expected. Techniicium, appearing in the -- under the tank farms at Hanford, plutonium well down the gradient from the test site at Nevada, the Benham test, and plutonium migrating at the Rocky Mountain -- sorry -- Rocky -- that place, RWMC in Idaho. Subsurface could -- you know -- you know where this stuff comes from. It's a much bigger problem at DOE sites than at the typical nuclear plant with all that stuff everywhere. But this is a very -- this is borrowed, by the way, from Jane Long in another National Research Council study, a very nice study, Research Needs in Subsurface Science. She was the Chair of that study. This is the changing view of how long it takes radio nuclides to get to the Snake River from the Idaho RWMC. And what's happened here is going back in time to the 1960s, a four order of magnitude change. We used to say they don't move, takes 70,000 years. We're saying now, they can under some circumstances move in mere tens of years. This is a -- basically, what we're learning is that we had a casual, naive conceptual model of the site. The model wasn't really tested by reality or data, and when we started to do that, which is now happening, we're discovering that things are quite different than they were in the past. So this other report, Research Needs and Subsurface Science, has a very nice discussion in it of the problem of site conceptual modeling, something that was represented in our Committee by Schlomo Neuman, who insisted that our report had to really emphasize this, a very nice discussion of what the need is, what the requirements are, what the standards should be. So you know, I don't need to show you too many pretty pictures, but this is the estimate of the new picture of the Hanford Tank Farm, with cesium and other contaminants distributed at depths, cesium-137. And you know, this is also the reality. Again, Hanford is the worst site in the complex, and I'm from Washington State, so this is the one we think about a lot. And here's the radio nuclide tritium contamination above drinking water standards. And you know, I mentioned this kind of interplay between the human and the technical, and I'm about to switch. So I want to point out, here's the old Hanford town site. As Bob Andrews was pointing out, there's not much there but it's a historic site and people like to visit it. And what's our President Clinton been doing in his waning days? I heard he did a bunch more this morning. He's creating national monuments all over the place and is trying to hide this stuff from the Republicans so they don't cut all the treaties, I guess. (Laughter) DR. LESCHINE: But here's the Hanford Reach National Monument, the Bruce Babbett vision of stewardship, right. And notice, this is the proposed boundary. You see that lobe? Okay. Well, that's so the people can visit the Hanford town site, though. So you know, I know that contamination is in the subsurface and we don't really expect the average national monument visitor to put in a well. But you know, do we really understand all the mechanisms that could bring contamination to the surface, taproot plants with 12-foot taproots, the typical sagebrush that lives in the desert, which this is. You know, these are the kinds of questions you have to start thinking through so you don't recreate Bikini and the coconut trees. So let me talk about long-term risk, a little bit at my peril because John Garrick's sitting here and he's the guy who clarifies completely the discussion of risk. But the way we see it is this way. You know, it's a question of stewardship technologies in looking at who's going to use them, how they'll use them, will they use the technology if it's intended to really be a protective technology. And very importantly, who else out there might do something that would change the way our protection system might work? These are questions without answers, and the message of our report is, somebody's got to get into the business of starting the research and looking seriously at answering these questions. So the groups that we're thinking about now are not just the agency people administering the institutional controls, but certainly it includes them, the long-term stewardship managers, employees, overseers. What other agencies, as well? Agencies that DOE is not necessarily used to thinking about as kind of partners. This is a very good news/bad news story. As I was telling it, I was meeting with Gerald Boyd, because I'm part of this Press Program if you know about that, a few weeks ago, and telling him about the good news at Hanford when the fires blew up last summer and led to the near catastrophe there, people in the community were not blaming DOE. They were blaming the Fish and Wildlife Service. That's really unique in DOE's experience that something involving radio nuclides happened and they didn't get the blame for it. Well, you know, the story there is that if you're going to have a wilderness area next to a hazard, that wilderness area gets managed, too. And do we manage these sites in ways that prevent fire or do we have -- you know -- what did we learn out of the Yellowstone fires. You know, I'm a westerner, a land -- not -- from Pittsburgh but a westerner now, right. And these big land management issues loom large, and after the Yellowstone fires we decided the fire policy is let it burn, that fire is part of nature's intention that renews forests and ecosystems, and is an essential part of those systems. So that's what you get from the Aldo Leopold way of thinking now, but fires that are unchecked in the vicinity of hazards are fires that can be very dangerous, and we sure found this out at Los Alamos, as well, right. So you've got a conflict between two ideals, separate managers. Somebody's going to have to work that out. The public certainly is very important and users and visitors have been hinting at that. So we're worried about things like water and water demand. Again, in the west where a lot of the biggest hazards are, that's where the water issues loom very large. Development encroachment is very important, and that's true in many of the eastern sites. Mound and Fernald are really good examples of that. The industrial, commercial and residential, recreational use that we're inviting onto the sites, right. What we're talking about doing in Oak Ridge at the East Tennessee Technology Park is re- industrialization where facilities that were formerly used for, you know, weapons production get turned over to the private sector for use, and they're not facilities that are scrubbed free of any contamination. And then the learning aspect becomes very significant. So here's some of the lessons that loom large to us. Looking at sites -- so this comes right out of DOE's own report from clean-up to stewardship. Rocky Flats, 1940. Here was Denver and here's Boulder, I guess, and here's Rocky Flats today and this is, you know, the kind of stuff you get off of a LANDSAT image, that's how this was created, of how growth and development has changed. So if you've been to Rocky Flats, it's obvious to anybody driving down that road there's an awful lot of housing right there nearby. And this is a site which is -- you know -- DOE creates a vision of it in a kind of computer animation that shows buildings disappearing and a green field, basically. But you know, Ray was using that term and that's one we thought about in this report, too. You know, what does it mean to call something a green field? It really doesn't mean that what you see is green grass. It means it's free of contamination. Well, Rocky Flats will be the green grass, but by no means free of contamination. So and this is, you know, with the encroaching settlement. So these kinds of issues really have to be looked at. I also wanted to show you a couple of pictures from Hanford again, because the way that we think about sites -- you were talking about EPA -- you know, tends to be in a very management-driven way. And what's interesting about Hanford, we see maps like this all the time. You know, what is the 100 area at Hanford? Is there a boundary line? Is there something you can see from a satellite? There's not -- this was an operational term. It was meant to be cryptic, you know. It was created during the war, the 100 area, the 200 area. Something went on there, you know, take this stuff over to the 200 area. Don't -- whatever you do, don't open the doors in the back of the truck. So these were operational designations and it's how we're used to thinking about our sites. And we bring in somebody like EPA and we start targeting a clean-up. And this is one that I've been looking at through my involvement in the Press Program, you know, playing the game of CERCLA, which is a dice and slice approach. It's a reductionist approach that I would argue drives us away from the big picture of what we're really trying to do. And I think that's something really important. So you get, you know, all these reactor areas, and you've got all this contaminated groundwater. But you know, the approach with CERCLA is basically, take the problem down to its smallest relevant scale and deal with every single facility, pipeline, et cetera, on top of this mass of contaminated groundwater that we really don't have any way to do anything about, right? So what's interesting there is we start imposing, you know, the devil's in the details. But let me just say, the institutional controls that have been created in associated with soils clean-up deliberately are created in a way that ignores the reality of this contaminated drinking water plume. In other words, we're only asking the question, what minimizes the contribution from this site to the drinking water as if it were uncontaminated because we're trying to, you know, remove every iota of contamination. And we're doing that in a way where we are actually, in order to kind of force the removal of contamination, we're using a residential scenario here. So the thought here is residential, and the whole construction of institutional controls is oriented toward this notion of residential use which will never occur. And people think that's a good thing because it's a high standard. I argue it's a bad thing because it's preventing you from thinking about what really will occur and whether you're really being protective about that. So you're not protective by creating little holes where you're cleaning up these little individual sites that are very clean to a residential use that could never be supported because of all the other hazards in the area. So no one would ever -- you'd never want anybody to live here, but is the area really being -- are you doing the best thing to make the area safe for the uses that are likely to occur? That's the question that seems to us to not be getting approached through the kind of things that we're doing in our most dominant cleanup strategies. So you end up with that. Swiss cheese, basically, we have excised some holes. We've created some brown fields, and that's the world we're going to try to live in. And I guess I'll just -- I've switched now to Savannah River and I've borrowed this slide from Chuck Powers and, boy, it doesn't show much. But I made that point about looking at sites in operational terms over and over. You know, every maps shows the 100 area and the reactor sites. This is a aerial photograph of the Savannah River site, and here's the Savannah River site boundary. And this is, I think, Steel Creek and supposed to show -- doesn't show very well -- but it's supposed to be cesium concentrations in surface sediments in the creek. And what you see here in the aerial photograph is an active working farm snugged right up against the site boundary. Well, I argue -- we argue -- there's a reality in this kind of image that you just don't quite get to when you keep looking at things in regulatory-driven and sort of operational terms. You're not really looking at who your neighbors are and what's likely to happen, like if we change this boundary. You know, should this boundary actually be pushed out so that we don't have a farm here for the institutional control period at this site? And those are the kinds of questions we're not asking, and I know that if you -- because I've been to the 100 area at Hanford, and if you go to the -- so if you haven't been there in awhile you might be surprised, because if you stand there at the end reactor or any of the others and look out across the river, what you see marching down the other side of the river are vineyards. The Washington Wine industry is booming. It's really hot stuff. Everybody's planting vineyards. No pun intended, but you know, even the perception that there's contamination that's affecting those grapes, and perception, not necessarily reality, would be a financial disaster to the agricultural sector in Washington State. And a downstream view, too, this is part of the story right off site, the fact is, there are off site affects, and I think any reasonable institutional control, stewardship planning has to get serious about those. This is fish consumption from the Savannah River, a study done by Joanna Berger, who's at Rutgers University. And her point was, she interviewed fishermen, intercepted them and talked to them and went to their homes and interviewed them about their fish consumption, and found that the EPA model is assuming 19 kilograms per year consumption. And this is actual consumption and here's 50 over here, and you see that there are some consumers of the fish caught in this river who are well, well over those assumed limits. So again, you know, the kind of artificial constructs we're using in our risk modeling aren't necessarily verified by empirical reality. And if we're really going to be protective at these sites, we're going to have to change those things. Well, I think what I ought to do is -- let's see where we are. I'm inclined to sort of -- I've talked enough, I think -- to rush toward the -- rather than -- let me just tell you what we did. I'll summarize it briefly, you know, and I'll show yo some of the things, because you've already seen some of the recommendations from the report. We did come up with -- we would say our report is a blueprint, that we talk about these tools that the -- are available to site managers, you know, isolation barriers, remediation as a stewardship tool, and institutional controls and other stewardship measures. The contextual factors, the ways and risks and costs and political accountability and so forth will shape and constrain the decisions at site. And then what we do in our report is talk about these desirable characteristics of institutional control systems. This is our coming back to the criteria question that was part of the charge, and then our generic design and implementation criteria and some recommendations and so forth. So let me finish up, then, by just talking briefly about some of these things. I think the lists of the characteristics of what we want in the ideal are not hard to find. Everybody's talking about them. You can look at the work that Resources for the Future is doing. There's some very nice stuff by John Applegate, who some of you may know. You know, here's the layering and redundancy idea that I talked about. This notion of reliability, you know, it's one thing to say that a system will be reliable. I'm working with a professor of government at American University, a guy named Howard McCarty, who studies something called high reliability organizations. And he points out that the bureaucratic organizational model is absolutely the enemy of reliability. I mean, this is government theory. What you want a bureaucracy for is constancy and maintenance, and it has worked. We have a postal service that we've had since Benjamin Franklin still delivering the mail and doing it pretty well, you know, constantly changing, but basically delivering the mail. So we have a flywheel in our bureaucratic form of government that came from Max Weber that keeps it all going in a way where it's predictable that what we did in the Truman administration we can still do in the Bush administration in pretty much the same way. But that's not the same as reliability that applies when you're dealing with hazards by any stretch. And in fact, it gets very difficult to do that, right, and we all know the reasons, the budgets and so forth. You know, the money for long-term stewardship, the things that's got many states refusing to cooperate, refusing to say yes to DOE, is they're just not assured that there's going to be the commitment from anybody with funding to keep the system going. It's a real hard problem, let alone this notion of how you really do. I mean, when you look at reliability people start looking at things like the flight crews that launch the space shuttle, or the people that land planes on aircraft carriers. And that's a very different kind of organization. It's one that actually when you study it, you discover it's not at all bureaucratic in its character. It doesn't even respect its own hierarchy. The guy who's -- the term "inside the bubble," apparently, we were operating in the bubble or along the bubble, comes from people on flight decks who are in these plexiglass bubbles watching planes come in for landings. And this is usually a young -- you know -- this is a navy, but this is a young guy. This is an ensign at best. It may even not be an officer. He has authority. He has authority that won't be questioned by his commanding officer. If he waves the plane off, the plane is waved off. He has a -- he's making a snap judgment. He's running -- you know -- I don't want to dwell on this too much, just to point out, though, bureaucracies don't operate that way. We do have accountability and slow process and that isn't necessarily the way to assure that the operations of something you really care about are reliable. So you know, again, accountability, feasibility, defense in depth that I talked about, stability through time, you know, these are the kinds of things we want to worry about. And we want to make sure that when we put these systems in place the objectives are clear, right, of our organizations, the governance is clear. Who's in -- we can't -- you know -- the Fish and Wildlife Service and the Department of Energy are going to have to come to some terms that relates to fire suppression policy where it's necessary, right? So it's got to be clear who's doing what. It has to be integrated and there has to be positive incentives. Employees, people at the bottom who really make sure that things really happen, if they don't perceive that the incentives are in the right direction, they don't behave in the right way. So we think that we wanted to kind of invert the sort of standard thought process here. We think people should plan for uncertainty and plan for fallibility. We wrestle a lot with this language, as Ray will well remember. And what we mean is, you know, not really, literally, everything is going to fail, but to plan as if it's going to fail and not as if it's going to succeed. It's a different planning basis. It gets you to a different place in a cautionary approach to what you're doing. Incentive structures have to be real. I was at a -- I think -- were you on the -- no, actually it was -- maybe you were on the committee with Elizabeth Pate-Cornell (phonetic), where we looked at maritime safety. She gave a talk at the Society for Risk Analysis last month in Washington, a very nice talk about a study she did on the space shuttle system where she was engaged to look at the problem of the tiles. If you know about the space shuttle, these heat-resistant tiles are everything to whether a shuttle's going to be able to land or not without burning up. And one of the things they found is that the incentive structure was such that among the lowest salary employees were people who were tile inspectors. And there were jobs they aspired to where they could make more money. So what you discover was you never had any experienced tile inspectors. And this is a purely intuitive thing. You know, this one's got to be replaced or these are okay. It's people learning in a kind of intuitive way how to be good at that job, but they don't stay in it. So when they realized that they changed the whole job classification system with the help of the union, and made tile inspector one of the better-paying jobs. And now, it's one that everybody wants and you do get senior people. So that kind of stuff is out there lurking and it's things that you really need to be worrying about. So our findings were that -- this isn't our finding. It was DOE's finding, but we stole it from them, I guess. All sites will require future oversight. That's, you know, they count 140 some major sites and they say 109 of them require long-term stewardship, no matter what clean-up occurs. Engineered barriers do have limited lives. That's the reality of them. Don't talk about 1,000- year barriers. Institutional controls will eventually fail. And by that I mean, if you don't keep renewing them, they fail. It's like it's got to be -- you've got to keep starting all over again. There's nothing you can put in place that you can reliably say will continue. Remediation planning isn't taking long-term factors into account. Transport modeling is inadequate, and we're recommending things like, for example, taking the performance assessment idea -- this is something that I think would be a natural to you people, to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and talk about institutional performance assessment. What kind of standards and criteria for the performance of institutions, you know, basically administering, implementing institutional controls, can we hold them to? And what should those standards be? What's the error rate that's the tolerable error rate? Bob Bernero used to talk about this a lot. He used to say the essence of the problem is the consequences of failure have to be tolerable. And if you're not operating inside that domain, then you're not operating in the right domain. Very interesting idea. You have to have a basic research program. It's fundamental. We're just not to the point where we know very much about these things in our scientific understanding, both the natural and social side. We need these organizational designs that are more reliable than traditional bureaucratic forms. That's a very difficult challenge, but it's the reality. And we need to be, as I said, pessimistic in our planning. Assume that the institutional controls will fall apart and then what. Ask yourself that question. Assume that contamination migration assumptions won't -- they tend to be very rosy scenarios when you look at the kind of modeling that is done at sites, for example, using EPA's REDRAD model, where we assume the kind of homogeneity in the subsurface that isn't necessarily there. And you know, our basic conclusion is that the approach is really the key. We call it long-term institutional management. It's very comprehensive. It's definitely iterative. It tries to be goal- focused and goal-oriented and tries to overcome all the natural problems of bureaucracy. Do we end up saying, here's a recipe for how to do that? We don't. In fact, we say, there's no recipe for success. It's something that's just going to have to be worked out by people like you. Believe it or not, that's all I have to say. CHAIRMAN GARRICK: Great. DR. WYMER: As usual, very, very lucid, very interesting, Tom, and thank you very much. Are there any questions here from the Committee? DR. LESCHINE: And fire away. DR. WYMER: I think we're still reeling a little. CHAIRMAN GARRICK: What do you think's going to happen to your report? DR. LESCHINE: Good question. You know, among organizations which are not real strong on follow-through, the National Research Council. And I think what should have happened or should happen are some follow-up studies to try to turn this into kind of an empirical reality. There was a suggestion that there be some studies that look at actual sites and try to look at the planning as being done in a detailed way and compare it to this model. And I know that Kevin has been working with Gerald Boyd on trying to come to terms on something like that. But my understanding is, nothing has happened. So I think if there isn't follow-up, what the difficulty is with all National Research Council studies, they tend to appear in isolation. You know, Bob Budnitz had the point -- although he's masquerading as Carol Harris right now -- (Laughter) DR. LESCHINE: -- made the point a couple of years -- he's on the board. You still on the board? MR. BUDNITZ: No. DR. LESCHINE: And one of his point on the board was the board should do a study which is simply to study its own studies and look for the consistency, the coherency and start putting that out as a separate message, that there are all these reports that point in this direction, because otherwise, the follow- through doesn't occur. And DOE says fine, thank you, we're already doing it, and that can be the end of the story. So I don't know if we're going to have an impact in the long run. I hope that the stakeholders and people like that take on the charge. I was at a meeting in San Francisco and a guy representing the Colorado Attorney General's Office got up and gave the talk on the report. He just had read it so thoroughly that every slide was about a report. And he said, this is the best -- he said, this is what we need to finally be able to deal with DOE on the terms and conditions for long-term care of Rocky Flats. So you know, if it gets out in that way, then if it's received in that sense I think you do have a lasting impact. But I am worried about that. As usual, John Garrick asks the key question. DR. WYMER: Any other questions, George? DR. HORNBERGER: No. MR. BUDNITZ: Can I make -- DR. WYMER: Yes, sure, Bob. MR. BUDNITZ: I'm Bob Budnitz. I just want to raise a question that seems to me fundamental to the whole enterprise, and without knowing what the answer is. The reason why these meetings are necessary and the reason why we're worried is because there's risk out there that we think is troubling if it's not managed properly. Risk to the environment, risk to public health and safety, various kinds of risks that differ from site to site, and in fact, differ over the decades and millennia, depending on your time scale. Now, part of the problem that I understand involving the skepticism of the people at the sites, these are DOE sites, but by the way could perfectly well apply to a site where one or two or three nuclear reactors are now sitting that it's going to be decommissioned and managed whenever, some years hence, exactly the same thing, is that the people at the site having these concerns insist on certain end-points for risk which they want because many of them wish there had never been that thing there. They'd just as soon it was 1930. And like I said, this could perfectly well apply to a reactor site or it could be Hanford or Fernald or wherever. And sometimes, the reason why they're skeptical of signing on to something like this is that they don't believe -- and I understand why they don't believe -- that the federal government will be there 50 or 100 years from now, the Congress will be there with appropriations and with follow-through, or you know, and so on. You say the Postal Service works. Well, the Postal Service has revenue, you know. It's 34 cents and it's doing something -- I mean, we understand this, but -- and the revenue's guaranteed by as long as there's, you know, revenue. But that's not true of most other government agencies. In fact, hardly anything else is like that. And so local people are afraid to sign onto something without knowing, and they can't know because Congress by definition in the Constitution can only appropriate one year at a time, except when they're building ships it can be three. They just don't read the Constitution, although it's literally what it says. Now, the problem has to do with what risk is acceptable or what risks are risks, and that's where the trouble comes. You see, I remember hearing the classic phrase. It's called the man from Maine. That's interesting because the DOE has no sites in Maine. That's why you use the man from Maine. Why would the man from Maine appropriate his or her tax dollars to fix something at Hanford and Savannah River? The answer is because the man from Maine benefitted from those activities, you know. I mean, that's always the rationale. We understand that rationale. But sometimes, the remedy sought costs far more than the real objective risk is, and that's the problem. And therefore, I want to insist on something that is at least the perspective I bring to this. Until and unless there is some agreed-on -- and this is very hard politically -- rational allocation of these risks and the benefits that allows the man from Maine, the skeptical appropriator in the Congress to feel that the money is being properly allocated roughly, there will always be this concern. And it rears its ugly head every time you turn around and see something nuts. And if you'll indulge me I'll just give you a 90-second thing about something that's absolutely nuts that I was just involved in. At Idaho they have all this low-level waste that's contaminated with a little bit of plutonium that could otherwise go to WIPP, except it's got a little bit of PCBs, so it can't go to WIPP. So the scheme that the department came up with after six or eight years of hard work was, we're going to incinerate the stuff to get rid of the PCBs, and then the ash -- it's perfectly good technology, it works -- the ash can go to WIPP. And they did all this. They had the EIS process. They had a record and decision. They were going ahead with an incinerator to incinerate 65,000 cubic meters of this stuff. And the incinerator met all applicable regulations at its fence post, which was 35 miles from Idaho Falls. The people in Jackson, 90 miles further east, or 125 miles from the site, objected that some of that stuff might get to them, and in fact, some does, 10 to minus 44 or something. I don't know the number, but anyway, it's nothing, but it's something. And they had enough political muscle that the secretary in August put the incinerator on hold while he commissioned a blue ribbon panel that I set up to explore alternatives to incineration, of which there are some. And we identified alternatives to incineration. That was the charge. It's just been published December 15th. You can go and read it. It came out of the secretary's office at SEAD (phonetic). I was part of that. But all those alternatives cost tens of millions of dollars more than the incineration, and there's no risk that's being averted that wasn't averted before. And when that nonsense goes on, the man from Maine is skeptical. And that then leads to the skepticism of the local people that the government will carry through because they listen to political noises that aren't necessarily risk-based. And I think that this Committee, ACNW, ought to wrestle hard with whether there's some mechanism -- because obviously, you're concerned with NRC licensed facilities, which are not necessarily -- not just reactors that are going to be decommissioned, but other facilities like that, that NRC licenses and the -- you know -- the initial facilities and obviously the waste sites, the Part 61 sites and Part 60 sites, Part 63 sites. Seems to me that until and unless there is some way to overcome that skepticism, the skepticism just arises out of this risk misallocation, so people feel they're mis-spending money, there isn't going to be any easy way to overcome that problem. And I think that's one of the real roots of this long-term problem with commitment, and the problem of commitment goes back to the risk. DR. WYMER: Yes. And we have a member in our Committee who's sitting on my left here, Milt Levenson, who echoes or says exactly the same thing you've just been saying. MR. BUDNITZ: I knew perfectly well that Milt thought -- DR. LEVENSON: Well, I can give you -- MR. BUDNITZ: I've known Milt for a few days or so. DR. LEVENSON: I'll give you a better example in connection with WIPP. A piece of plutonium that's chrome-plated is taken into a glove box and stripped the chrome off because you can't put it into WIPP, but then you put that piece of plutonium in a stainless steel barrel and bury it in WIPP because "the stainless is not part of the waste," quote, unquote. MR. BUDNITZ: But the chrome -- DR. WYMER: Yes, that's a lot of chromium in there. MR. BUDNITZ: But I guess I was trying to focus on the fact, and it is a fact, that when public at the sites insist on measures that are very costly that are not beneficial to the risk, it induces the skepticism that induces their skepticism that Congress will appropriate, and so it becomes a cycle. Okay. DR. LEVENSON: Yes. DR. WYMER: Yes. MR. BUDNITZ: And I don't know what to do about that. DR. HORNBERGER: So why does Jacksonhole have more clout than the people from Maine? DR. WYMER: He said they have more money. MR. BUDNITZ: Well, in this particular case they have more clout because there was an election going on. DR. WYMER: Yes. MR. BUDNITZ: And there were donors; and there were donors and they went to court. I mean, you know, just different things, they're political things that are -- DR. LESCHINE: Yes. They did see it. It was in their back yard from retrospective, and the man in Maine is silent -- DR. HORNBERGER: Yes. DR. LESCHINE: -- because it's not in his back yard. DR. HORNBERGER: That was my point. DR. LESCHINE: Yes. DR. HORNBERGER: And I think that will always be true. DR. LESCHINE: Yes. DR. HORNBERGER: I don't think that there's a resolution for that. I had another comment on -- for you, Tom. Then again, it's a little bit off the subject. But as you pointed out, that nice graph from Jane Long's report on travel time at INEL, and I think that it is important, though, that we contrast a minimum travel time with a mass flux. MR. BUDNITZ: Yes. DR. HORNBERGER: Those two things are really different. CHAIRMAN GARRICK: Yes. Yes. DR. LEVENSON: Right. DR. HORNBERGER: And it's not huge quantities of plutonium that have made it down to the inner beds in the Snake River plain. DR. WYMER: Right. CHAIRMAN GARRICK: So you need to talk about mass flow. DR. WYMER: Mass flow. DR. HORNBERGER: Well, that's -- at least it's another facet of the problem. I'm not saying that we shouldn't talk about travel time, but it is important to not think that everything is going that fast. MR. BUDNITZ: But I insist that that was the problem with the incinerator. People in Jackson asked the question, will any of that stuff get to me, and the answer was, 10 to minus 14 will. And by the way, there's no -- you know -- there's nothing -- no such thing as zero. DR. HORNBERGER: Right. MR. BUDNITZ: And they said, we want nothing, and nothing is nothing. But there are no zeros in the environment in this way, and that then feeds, you know, the perception -- and then they gave in so that that feeds the next guy who's going to try it again, because they gave in this time. DR. HORNBERGER: I actually do have another question that follows on what Tom was suggesting, and that is the -- I think you called it the fragility of government controls, and I suppose that in some ways the commercial controls are viewed as even more fragile. And I know in discussions like this people somewhat frivolously say, well, why don't we engage the Catholic Church because it's been going for a few thousand years. Do you have any alternatives, other than, say, national governments for being less fragile? DR. LESCHINE: Well, yes. I think in one word, oversight, that if you really have an engaged citizenry that cares about a place and has a stake in the environmental health of the place, that that would -- I mean, that's what democracy should make work. So you'd like to believe that maybe -- you know -- everybody kind of looks to the Internet as a solution to all problems, but the idea that it is possible to put a lot more information out in front of a public in a form that, you know, right now I would say we're not doing all that well. But got a graduate student, in fact, working on the problem with transparency and what it means and how you achieve it. And part of her dissertation research is going to be to develop a website based on this 100-area clean-up where you try to put out information and then test it with a group of people knowledgeable about Hanford and see, does this help you understand what's going on and could you imagine this thing being a useful way to track and understand the system -- any system of controls and the institutional controls being in place. And I guess that's ultimately what you have to rely on, right, because there just isn't a magic priesthood out there that's going to do this job. DR. HORNBERGER: In some ways it strikes me that what you're suggesting is an equivalent to a local priesthood, and that is, to have local interest with an Aldo Leopold ethic. DR. LESCHINE: Yes. DR. HORNBERGER: Who will provide some oversight. DR. LESCHINE: And again, the difficulty at DOE sites is some of the -- you know -- they have the Citizen Advisory Boards and these things have been very fractionated at some of the sites. And the one at Oak Ridge is one where -- I think it was Oak Ridge -- where we had an exit actually from the board of the entire environmental contingent. And Oak Ridge is very split because the community there, the business interests, the Chamber of Commerce, have really been pushing hard this re- industrialization approach. And we went down there and we got some presentations from them, and I have to say, I did feel that there were people in very nice suits who represented the business community and didn't know anything about the risk who were simply asserting that there was no risk, or that there would be no risk, because, really, what they wanted was economic development, and you have to be able to counter that. And so yes, but you know, how you maintain that is very difficult. You really have to take the long perspective, and recognize that there may be periods where you don't have a very good balance between the two interests. And you hope that you will restore that balance in the future. But you have to take into account what Bob was saying, too, that you know, that the Citizens' Group is just as capable of sort of pushing down the road toward these unrealistic clean- ups that are very expensive. And that kind of creates its own kind of difficulty because that starts creating economic inefficiency, which raises the ire of the counter to that, the business interests. No easy solution. DR. WYMER: No, there's no easy solution. Are there any other questions around the table here? How about from the audience? That certainly was a -- John, please. John Greeves. MR. GREEVES: Yes, just -- John Greeves. I don't know whether it's a question or really a comment. The report presents at least two problems to us. One is, the report identifies inadequate modeling. And frankly, that's what we use to terminate sites. We do this all the time. We're terminating sites every year. We use modeling, predictive tools. So the Academy putting out a report like that, it's a tool that people could bring to the table, you know. If it went to a hearing, Academy says the models are inadequate. So that I'm not looking for an answer. I'm just identifying a concern. And Bob, you chuckle over there. Maybe you can give me some help on that, because as you know, we -- you do use modeling for high-level waste, low-level waste, terminating sites. And for a National Academy Report to say inadequate is a challenge. The second one is, I know you did this report in the context of the Department of Energy and you stressed an integrated approach in, it sounds like an evolving management process. Maybe that's okay for the Department of Energy, but in the commercial sector the idea is you've got to terminate sometime. DR. WYMER: Yes. MR. GREEVES: How do you price out something that stresses an evolving approach so you can get enough money up front to account for what you described? I see that as a bit of a challenge for the, you know, the bigger sites, the 10, 12 that we, you know, may have a similar problem with. So I don't expect an answer, but I share with you what a read of the report you produced has in terms of impacts on the commercial sector. DR. WYMER: Right. DR. LESCHINE: Well, what you just said, I mean, you used the key words in your remark, price out, and that's that notion of creating some kind of a fiduciary mechanism, a trust of some sort that can be there when the private enterprise -- private entity is gone. And yes, you know, that absolutely is the case of any brown fields or Super Fund site in the private sector. That private entity always wants to buy out of that site. It's a liability that they're carrying and it's only sensible. And it's sensible when you get to the appropriate point to permit them to do that. So then it really does become a question of the mechanism. Resources for the Future last month had a meeting on trust fund mechanisms. I didn't go to it, but I heard from several people -- I think Bob was there -- that it was a very interesting meeting, and they -- you know -- they talked about some of the -- I think they came down on the side of kind of state and local arrangements over federal, because federal trust funds have some innate difficulties from our constitution that they really just become IOUs and not real money in the bank, and you're actually not avoiding the Congressional appropriation problem. But I think there's, you know, good experience in the brown fields world, for example. At one point in our report we got a presentation from a guy named Ed Frost who's a very prominent attorney who's worked in brown fields area, worked with Tom Grumley for awhile, in fact. And they were talking about these kinds of arrangements where essentially you've got to figure out up front what the right amount of money is. And if you do that and you turn that over to the government entity or whoever, it could even be another private sector entity, why not, you know, that's how you do it. So that's the mechanism, but we have to rely on that mechanism. You know, the State of Tennessee has an interesting experiment where they did negotiate a trust over some facilities at Oak Ridge. But it was very interesting what they did, because even after this tremendous battle with DOE over the principle of the trust fund, DOE relented and they created a trust. But they did it for -- when it was done, the battle was won -- I guess we would argue and it's in our report -- the war was lost because they took no uncertainty into account, and only looked at the predicted cost of maintaining and monitoring a cap. And so they settled on $14 million, which they amortized into the exact dollar value of the estimated monitoring and maintenance of the cap at the site in perpetuity, or for as long as was necessary for the -- given the hazard. Well, you know, that's kind of the right approach but the wrong answer, because what's missing there is factoring in the uncertainty and the real scenarios of what can go wrong and what happens if that goes wrong. So you know, these trusts could be the answer but they have to be done in a way that takes the uncertainties into account and doesn't just ignore them. And again, that gives -- MR. GREEVES: Those uncertainties will drive the cost up significantly. DR. LESCHINE: Yes. Well, that's where you -- but you know, those exist in the private sector and don't we use insurance to do that? And so sometimes, insurance schemes are preferable because you pool the risk if you have an insurance company out there. And something will go wrong at one site, but it won't go wrong at every site. So in that way we sort of meter out the money on a, you know, actualized risk basis. That's some people's suggestion. DR. LEVENSON: Has anybody gone back and looked -- we do have a lot of experience over a long period of time in a somewhat different field -- in perpetual care in cemeteries, who make estimates and funded things and costs have changed over time. Have anybody gone back and see if there's anything to be learned from all of that experience? DR. LESCHINE: If you read the literature that comes out of the social sciences on long-term care and maintenance, cemeteries are a very prominent model. National parks are another model, too. You know, Yellowstone is still there as Yellowstone. As our first national park, it's more than 100 years old. But cemeteries are good ones, you know, except what happens with cemeteries is they do drive you to the edge of sort of your limits of control, you know, that kind of cultural imperialism where one group overcomes another. And often, what they do is go out and desecrate the cemeteries. So the Arlingtons get very well taken care of, but the Jewish cemetery in Warsaw does not, you know. So those are the dilemmas that you have to face, but yes, a cemetery is a good model because there's an income flow in a way. People die, except you know, the Catholic Church is having a hard time maintaining some of its cemeteries right now, and it's turning into kind of a little crisis for them because of the changing demographics of the population. And they're not maintaining the income flow they had expected. So but it's an interesting model. DR. WYMER: Okay. Well, is there any other comments or observations? It's certainly a provocative talk, and it's a challenging field. There's no question about it, this whole business of institutional management. DR. LESCHINE: Yes. I think this report, I have to say, we raised many more questions than we had answers, as Carolyn Huntoon pointedly said. DR. WYMER: Yes. DR. LESCHINE: So. DR. WYMER: Well, thanks again. I know you came here at some personal sacrifice. We appreciate it. DR. LESCHINE: Well, it's my pleasure. Thank you. DR. WYMER: Very much. CHAIRMAN GARRICK: All right. This actually ends the presentation phase of our meeting, especially since I regret to announce that John Ahearne came down sick this morning, with chills and headaches and sore throats and has had to cancel his visit with us this morning. So from this point on we will not need recording and there will no longer be any formal presentations and the committee will, after the break, reconvene to do some planning and business-related activities. So we adjourn with a 15-minute break. DR. WYMER: Thank you. (Whereupon, this portion of the 124th meeting of the Advisory Committee on Nuclear Waste was concluded at approximately 10:50 a.m.)
Page Last Reviewed/Updated Monday, October 02, 2017
Page Last Reviewed/Updated Monday, October 02, 2017