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State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) Uncertainty Analysis

Sponsored by the Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research

The NRC is conducting an uncertainty analysis (UA) for the SOARCA study. The goals of this UA are to develop insights into the overall sensitivity of SOARCA results to uncertainty in inputs; to identify the most influential input parameters for releases and consequences; and to demonstrate a UA methodology that could be used in future source term, consequence, and site Level 3 probabilistic risk assessment studies. Preliminary integrated analyses, using about 40 independent MELCOR and MACCS2 parameters, support the overall SOARCA results and conclusions for the selected accident scenario.

The models and methods from the SOARCA project and SOARCA UA will be used to support and inform other agency activities related to severe accidents, consequence analyses, and lessons learned from the Fukushima accident. This data will be displayed in the poster presentation.

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