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Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research Workshop – 2020

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On February 18-20, 2020, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (NRC/RES) will host the 5th Annual NRC Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research Workshop at NRC headquarters in Rockville, Maryland.  Staff and contractors from NRC, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), federal agencies, industry, and other organizations involved in flood hazard assessment, flood risk assessment, and flood protection/mitigation research will provide information on recent results, current activities, and perspectives on future research directions. This three-day workshop is open to the public at no charge. Space may be limited, so advanced registration is required (a remote participation option via webinar is planned).

Registration information is coming soon.

Last Year's Agenda

Agenda: Tuesday, April 30, 2019

09:00 – 09:10 Welcome & Logistics
Session 1A: Introduction
Session Chair: Meredith Carr, NRC/RES
09:10 – 09:25 Introduction 1A-1
Raymond Furstenau*, Director, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research  
09:25 – 09:45 NRC Flooding Research Program Overview 1A-2
  Joseph Kanney*, Meredith Carr, Tom Aird, Elena Yegorova, Mark Fuhrmann and Jacob Philip, NRC/RES  
09:45 – 10:05 EPRI External Flooding Research Program Overview 1A-3
  Marko Randelovic*, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)  
10:05 – 10:20 Nuclear Energy Agency: Committee on the Safety of Nuclear Installations (CSNI): Working Group on External Events (WGEV) Flooding Overview 1A-4
  John Nakoski*, NRC/RES  
 
10:20 – 10:35 BREAK  

* denotes presenter, ^ denotes remote presenter

Session 1B: Coastal Flooding
Session Chair: Joseph Kanney, NRC/RES
10:35 – 11:05 KEYNOTE: NWS Storm Surge Ensemble Guidance 1B-1
  Arthur Taylor*, National Weather Service / Office of Science and Technology Integration / Meteorological Development Laboratory  
11:05 – 11:30 Advancements in Probabilistic Storm Surge Models and Uncertainty Quantification Using Gaussian Process Metamodeling  1B-2
  Norberto C. Nadal-Caraballo*, Victor M. Gonzalez, Alexandros Taflanidis, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) R&D Center, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory  
11:30 – 11:55 Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Using the Joint Probability Method for Hurricane Storm Surge 1B-3
  Michael Salisbury^, Atkins North America, Inc., Marko Randelovic*, EPRI  
11:55 – 12:20 Assessment of Epistemic Uncertainty for Probabilistic Storm Surge Hazard Assessment using a Logic Tree Approach 1B-4
  Bin Wang*, Daniel C. Stapleton, David M. Leone, GZA GeoEnvironmental, Inc.  
12:20 – 13:00 Coastal Flooding Panel 1B-5
     
13:00 – 14:00 LUNCH  

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Session 1C: Precipitation
Session Chair: Elena Yegorova, NRC/RES
14:00 – 14:30 KEYNOTE: Satellite Precipitation Estimates, GPM, and Extremes 1C-1
  George J. Huffman*, NASA/GSFC  
14:30 – 14:55 Hurricane Harvey Highlights: Need to Assess the Adequacy of Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimation Methods  1C-2
  Shih-Chieh Kao, Scott T. DeNeale, David B. Watson, ORNL  
14:55 – 15:20 Reanalysis Datasets in Hydrologic Hazards Analysis 1C-3
  Jason Caldwell*, USACE, Galveston District  
     
15:20 – 15:35 BREAK  
 
15:35 – 16:00 Current Capabilities for Developing Watershed Precipitation-Frequency Relationships and Storm-Related Inputs for Stochastic Flood Modeling for Use in Risk-Informed Decision-Making 1C-4
  M.G. Schaefer*, MGS Engineering Consultants, Inc.  
16:00 – 16:25 Factors Affecting the Development of Precipitation Areal Reduction Factors 1C-5
  Shih-Chieh Kao*, Scott DeNeale, ORNL  
16:25 – 17:05 Precipitation Panel Discussion 1C-6
   
17:05 – 17:20 Daily Wrap-up  

Agenda: Wednesday, May 1, 2019

08:20 – 08:30 Day 2 Welcome
Session 2A: Riverine Flooding
Session Chairs: Meredith Carr and Mark Fuhrmann, NRC/RES
08:30 – 9:00 KEYNOTE:  Watershed level Risk Analysis with HEC-WAT 2A-1
  Will Lehmann*, Lea Adams, Chris Dunn, USACE, Institute for Water Resources, Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC)  
09:00 – 09:25 Global Sensitivity Analyses Applied to Riverine Flood Modeling 2A-2
  Claire-Marie Duluc, Vincent Rebour, Vito Bacchi, Lucie Pheulpin & Nathalie Bertrand, Institut de radioprotection et de sûreté nucléaire (IRSN) Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety Institute  
09:25 – 09:50 Detection and attribution of flood change across the United States 2A-3
  Stacey A. Archfield*, Water Mission Area, U.S. Geological Survey  
09:50 – 10:15 Bulletin 17C Flood Frequency and Extrapolations for Dams and Nuclear Facilities 2A-4
  John F. England*, USACE, Risk Management Center; Haden Smith, USACE, Risk Management Center; Brian Skahill, USACE R&D Center, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory  
 
10:15 – 10:35 BREAK  
 
10:35 – 11:00 Riverine Paleoflood Analyses in Risk-Informed Decision Making: Improving Hydrologic Loading Input for USACE Dam Safety Evaluations 2A-5
Keith Kelson*, USACE, Sacramento Dam Safety Production Center; Justin Pearce, USACE, Risk Management Center; Brian Hall, USACE, Dam Safety Modification Mandatory Center of Expertise  
11:00 – 11:25 Improving Flood Frequency Analysis with a Multi-Millennial Record of Extreme Floods on the Tennessee River near Chattanooga, TN 2A-6
Tess Harden*, Jim O'Connor and Mackenzie Keith, U.S. Geological Survey  
11:25 – 12:05 Riverine Flooding Panel Discussion  
 
12:05 – 13:25 LUNCH  

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Session 2B: Modeling Frameworks
Session Chair: Thomas Nicholson, NRC/RES
13:25 – 13:50 Structured Hazard Assessment Committee Process for Flooding (SHAC-F) 2B-1
Rajiv Prasad^ and Phillip Meyer, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Kevin Coppersmith, Coppersmith Consulting  
13:50 – 14:15  Overview of the TVA PFHA Calculation System 2B-2
Shaun Carney*, RTI International, Water Resource Management Division, Curt Jawdy, Tennessee Valley Authority  
14:15 – 14:40  Development of Risk-Informed safety margin characterization framework for flooding of nuclear power plants 2B-3
M.A. Andre, George Washington University; E. Ryan, Idaho State University, Idaho National Laboratory; Steven Prescott, Idaho National Laboratory; N. Montanari, R. Sampath, Centroic Lab; L. Lin, A. Gupta, N. Dinh, North Carolina State University; Philippe M. Bardet*, George Washington University  
14:40 – 15:20 Modeling Frameworks Panel Discussion 2B-4
15:20 – 15:35 Daily Wrap-up  
 
15:35 – 16:50

Session 2C: Poster Session
Session Chair: Meredith Carr, NRC/RES

 

18:00

Group Dinner: TBD

 
 

Agenda:  Thursday, May 2, 2019

08:20 – 08:30 Day 3 Welcome
Session 3A: Climate and Non-stationarity
Session Chair: Elena Yegorova, NRC/RES
08:30 – 09:00 KEYNOTE: Hydroclimatic Extremes Trends and Projections: A View from the Fourth National Climate Assessment 3A-1
  Kenneth Kunkel*, North Carolina State University  
09:00 – 09:25 Regional Climate Change Projections: Potential Impacts to Nuclear Facilities 3A-2
  L. Ruby Leung* and Rajiv Prasad, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory  
09:25 – 09:50 Role of Climate Change/Variability in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season 3A-3
  Young-Kwon Lim*, GSFC/NASA  
9:50 – 10:30 Climate Panel Discussion 3A-4
10:30 – 10:50  BREAK  

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Session 3B: Flood Protection and Plant Response
Session Chair: Thomas Aird, NRC/RES
10:50 – 11:15 External Flood Seal Risk-Ranking Process 3B-1
  Ray Schneider*, Westinghouse, Marko Randelovic*, EPRI  
11:15 – 11:40 Results of Performance of Flood-Rated Penetration Seals Tests 3B-2
  William (Mark) Cummings, Fisher Engineering, Inc.  
11:40 – 1205 Modeling Overtopping Erosion Tests of Zoned Rockfill Embankments 3B-3
  Tony Wahl^, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation  
12:05 – 12:45 Flood Protection and Plant Response Panel Discussion 3B-4
     
12:45 – 13:45 LUNCH  

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Registration

Please submit the registration formdue December 31, 2019.

Contact Information

If you have questions or need further information regarding the workshop, please contact the following:

NRC Contacts:

Joe Kanney
Email: Joseph.Kanney@nrc.gov
Phone: (301) 415-1920

Meredith Carr
Email: Meredith.Carr@nrc.gov
Phone: (301) 415-6322

Elena Yegorova
Email: Elena.Yegorova@nrc.gov
Phone: (301) 415-2440

Mark Fuhrmann
Email: Mark.Fuhrmann@nrc.gov
Phone: (301) 415-0879

Thomas Aird
Email: Thomas.Aird@nrc.gov
Phone: (301) 415-2442

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Page Last Reviewed/Updated Tuesday, October 01, 2019