Enhancing Guidance for Evacuation Time Estimate Studies (NUREG/CR-7269)

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Publication Information

Manuscript Completed: October 2019
Date Published: March 2020

Prepared by:
B. Wolshon¹, N. Herrera¹, E. Tuncer¹, J. Jones¹
S. Parr²
T. Smith³

Louisiana State University¹
Baton Rouge, LA 70803

Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University²
Daytona Beach, FL 32114

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission³
Washington DC, 20555

Todd Smith, NRC Technical Monitor
Sergio Gonzalez, NRC Project Manager
Lindsey Cooke, NRC Project Manager

Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Washington DC 20555-0001

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Abstract

Evacuation time estimates (ETEs) are an analysis of the time required to evacuate various sectors and distances within the plume exposure pathway emergency planning zone (EPZ) for permanent and transient populations. All nuclear power plant licensees are required to submit an updated ETE study after each decennial census. The objective of this study was to develop a technical basis for revision of NUREG/CR-7002, "Criteria for Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies," in support of the next required ETE update. This applied research examines various aspects of ETE studies. Evacuation models were built for representative small, medium, and large population EPZs. Parametric analyses were conducted to examine modeling of traffic movement during evacuations, including: the impact of shadow evacuations; the effect of model extent; effectiveness of manual traffic control; and significance of parameter values. This report describes the model development and summarizes insights and observations to inform NRC staff efforts to enhance ETE guidance.