Fire Risk Analysis for Nuclear Power Plants (NUREG/CR-2258)
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Manuscript Completed: May 1981
Data Published: September 1981
M. Kazarians, G. Apostollakis
School of Engineering and Applied Science
University of California
Los Angeles, CA 90024
Division of Risk Analysis
Office Of Nuclear Regulatory Research
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Washington, D.C. 20555
NRC FIN 86280.
A methodology for evaluating the frequency of severe consequences due to fires in nuclear power plants is presented. The methodology produces a 1 of accident scenarios and then assesses the frequency of occurrence of each. Its framework is given in six steps. In the first two steps, the accident scenarios are identified qualitatively and the potential of fires to cause initiating events is investigated. The last four steps are aimed at quantification. The frequency of fires is obtained for different compartments in nuclear power plants using Bayesian techniques. The results are compared with those of classical methods and the variation of the frequencies with time is also examined. The combined effects of fire growth, detection, and suppression on component failure are modeled. The susceptibility of cables to fire and their failure modes are discussed. Finally, the limitations of the methodology and suggestions for further research are given.